The Twins should sign Yu Darvish, regardless of price

[amjgt]

I couldn’t care less about “efficient.” About winning the “dollar spent per win” trophy.

 

I want to watch them win 100 plus games, and win a WS.

 

Sign the players that will help do that. If it means there is less theoretical money to spend 5 years from now, oh well. I fail to see how not having money to spend 5 years from now is worse than not spending today because it’s “inefficient.”

Add in the fact that 5 years from now, if the Twins have had a successful 4 years, team revenue will likely have gone up more than enough to cover a 30M “thanks for the memories, Yu” year

[terrydactyls]

If now is the time to spend (as many are pointing out) and there is also a plea to do it "efficiently", how about offering Darvish a three or four year contract at a higher amount? Just as an example, instead of six years at $25M ($150M), the Twins offer four years at $35M ($140M)? They are spending but also possibly limiting the future impact of an aging expensive pitcher. From a players perspective, I would rather have the money now and make plans for my future with it, than wait five years for additional money. Just a thought.

[ashbury]

If now is the time to spend (as many are pointing out) and there is also a plea to do it "efficiently", how about offering Darvish a three or four year contract at a higher amount? Just as an example, instead of six years at $25M ($150M), the Twins offer four years at $35M ($140M)? They are spending but also possibly limiting the future impact of an aging expensive pitcher. From a players perspective, I would rather have the money now and make plans for my future with it, than wait five years for additional money. Just a thought.

For the same reason you are attracted to committing to only $140M instead of $150M, the pitcher probably would accept the latter, if different teams offered this choice of contracts. He's at a stage in his career where guaranteed totals are likely the main thing; Joe Mauer for example is not a lock to garner a total of $10M for the remainder of his career after his current contract expires.

[ewen21]

There seems to be a Darvish fetish amongst Twins fans and I don't get it.  We will need to outbid the entire market for a guy who turns 32 this season, has had arm trouble, hasn't won more than 10 games in a season (despite playing for playoff contenders) since 2013, has pitched more than 150 innings ONCE since 2013, and curled up in the fetal position for the biggest game of his life.

 

We are supposed to move heaven and earth to get this guy?  No thanks.  

[beckmt]

To win the World Series you first have to get there.  Darvish can certainly do that,  what happens when you get there can be anything including winning it.  

Darvish was tipping his pitches, that can be fixed.  Go for it.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not an expert in Gerontology by any means. 

 

However... there seems to be concern about Darvish and the aging process. I admit that there seems to be conclusive evidence that performance level lowers as you age past the peak year of 29. (Peak Year used to be 27). 

 

However... That drop is more like the backside of a bell curve, the data is large sample size averages compiled from all major league baseball players including Ty Cobb and the peak year seems to be moving older because... make your own assumption... better training... stronger generations... PED's... More Wives inspiring Players to be their best... Too much drinking and carrying-on in the roaring 20's... I don't know. 

 

The measured statistical drop in performance is not a cliff.

 

That is an important distinction. 

 

 

 

 

[Craig Arko]

I'm not an expert in Gerontology by any means. 

 

However... there seems to be concern about Darvish and the aging process. I admit that there seems to be conclusive evidence that performance level lowers as you age past the peak year of 29. (Peak Year used to be 27). 

 

...

 

The measured statistical drop in performance is not a cliff.

 

That is an important distinction.

 

Satchel Paige farts in their general direction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There seems to be a Darvish fetish amongst Twins fans and I don't get it.  We will need to outbid the entire market for a guy who turns 32 this season, has had arm trouble, hasn't won more than 10 games in a season (despite playing for playoff contenders) since 2013, has pitched more than 150 innings ONCE since 2013, and curled up in the fetal position for the biggest game of his life.

 

We are supposed to move heaven and earth to get this guy?  No thanks.  

Pitcher wins? Really?

 

Darvish pitched 186 very good innings in 2017. His win total is irrelevant, as it's not his fault the offense failed to score runs while he was on the mound (8th lowest run support in baseball last season).

[Otto von Ballpark]

There seems to be a Darvish fetish amongst Twins fans and I don't get it. We will need to outbid the entire market for a guy who turns 32 this season, has had arm trouble, hasn't won more than 10 games in a season (despite playing for playoff contenders) since 2013, has pitched more than 150 innings ONCE since 2013, and curled up in the fetal position for the biggest game of his life.

 

We are supposed to move heaven and earth to get this guy? No thanks.

It's hardly a "fetish" or "moving heaven and earth" to offer a market rate contract, for likely the best player available at a contending team's biggest position of need.

 

Also, your list of Darvish negatives is misleading or at best double-counting. Thus far, his "arm trouble" has been limited to TJ surgery (hardly disqualifying by itself), which cut short his 2014 season, wiped out his 2015, and delayed the start of his 2016 (the 3 seasons you also ding him for not exceeding 10 wins or 150 innings). His surgery recovery time was no different than that of Lynn or Cobb. Also, the Rangers were ultimately NOT contenders in 2 of those seasons (2014 and 2017).

 

On the positive side, Darvish has had 6 seasons in MLB. TJ surgery wiped out the first half of two of those seasons; the other 4, Darvish has been named to the all-star team, including last season. I think he's a worthy target of the Twins right now.

[Darius]

Just because a contract may be a risk and hurt the team a little down the road, they should not avoid them all together. At some point you have to take a risk.

 

There are also the possible outcomes of an "ace" caliber starter through the vast majority of the contract, or a trade deadline move returning elite prospects.

 

How often do the Twins have an opportunity like this? A potentially explosive offense and great defense are already place, and the best free agent starter on the market is expressing some legitimate interest in joining the team.....and we're too scared of failing to capitalize on something potentially great.

[darin617]

For those so high on getting Yu Darvish just look at Felix Hernandez. They are pretty much the same age and both thrown a ton of innings. Right now King Felix has a bum shoulder and will be a shell of his former self.

 

This would be different if the Twins were just 1 player away from a World Series but we all know that is not the case. So the best case would be to trade for a young controllable SP and go that route. Just because Mauer will be off the books doesn't mean you have to spend the money like a fool.

[Monkeypaws]

Major league sports is big ugly business of the worst kind. Again, I'll bring up Euro football, which is my favorite game, kind of. It is less so because 10-15 teams in Europe just throw crazy money around. There you can buy players under contract, and the more years, the higher the price. Every year "transfer" records are broken, teams buy players they don't need, and competition is reduced. Who has won Spain besides Barcelona or Madrid lately?

 

However, occasionally something awesome happens, as with Leicester City winning the Premier league a couple years ago. Did they throw wild money around? No, their scouts found players from insignificant French teams, and the lower divisions of English football, and built a champion team that shocked football.

 

That's the kind of champion I want. Outfox em is much more satisfying than outspend 'em. I think Falvey & Co. are the guys to do it too. Much like Andy McPhail.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

For those so high on getting Yu Darvish just look at Felix Hernandez. They are pretty much the same age and both thrown a ton of innings. Right now King Felix has a bum shoulder and will be a shell of his former self.

 

This would be different if the Twins were just 1 player away from a World Series but we all know that is not the case. So the best case would be to trade for a young controllable SP and go that route. Just because Mauer will be off the books doesn't mean you have to spend the money like a fool.

Well they have had more chances to trade for pitching than sign pitching, and haven't done that either.

 

If they sign Darvish, does that then put the Twins "one player away"? The Astros are stacked and hard to beat, but Darvish might put the Twins about equal with Cleveland.

[jimmer]

 

 The Astros are stacked and hard to beat, but Darvish might put the Twins about equal with Cleveland.

I think you're stretching it quite a bit with that statement. Cleveland is in a different tier than we are whether we get Darvish or not.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think you're stretching it quite a bit with that statement. Cleveland is in a different tier than we are whether we get Darvish or not.

I think a couple guys on Cleveland really over achieved in 2017 (but they maybe Rosario and Polanco over achieved for us), and Cleveland lost a couple other guys to free agency. I think the Twins should not concede anything to Cleveland in 2018. They won't win 100 games again this season. Just my opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For those so high on getting Yu Darvish just look at Felix Hernandez. They are pretty much the same age and both thrown a ton of innings. Right now King Felix has a bum shoulder and will be a shell of his former self.

 

This would be different if the Twins were just 1 player away from a World Series but we all know that is not the case. So the best case would be to trade for a young controllable SP and go that route. Just because Mauer will be off the books doesn't mean you have to spend the money like a fool.

Felix Hernandez has thrown 500 more innings in MLB than Darvish has in NPB + MLB.

 

Felix Hernandez' fastball is down 4-5mph from his peak seasons. Darvish had the highest fastball velocity of his career in 2017.

[snepp]

 

Felix Hernandez has thrown 500 more innings in MLB than Darvish has in NPB + MLB.

 

Felix Hernandez' fastball is down 4-5mph from his peak seasons. Darvish had the highest fastball velocity of his career in 2017.

 

So you're saying one is not exactly like the other?

[snepp]

On a non-snarky note, shoulder problems are a far larger, and continually more problematic concern than a TJ elbow.

 

 

 

*paging heezy*

[Riverbrian]

 

I think you're stretching it quite a bit with that statement. Cleveland is in a different tier than we are whether we get Darvish or not.

 

Personally... I'm not so sure. Speaking on Paper obviously but I've never been much of a paper guy. 

 

I think the Twins can match up close enough with the Indians 1 through 9 and the remaining bench. 

 

Where Cleveland has their advantage is that starting rotation and Darvish closes that gap so it isn't quite so gulfish. 

 

Cleveland lost 3 good arms out of that killer bullpen and I think the Twins have much better depth nearly ready on the farm. 

 

I'd probably give the nod to the Indians but I will hand them nothing. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

For those so high on getting Yu Darvish just look at Felix Hernandez. They are pretty much the same age and both thrown a ton of innings. Right now King Felix has a bum shoulder and will be a shell of his former self.

 

This would be different if the Twins were just 1 player away from a World Series but we all know that is not the case. So the best case would be to trade for a young controllable SP and go that route. Just because Mauer will be off the books doesn't mean you have to spend the money like a fool.

 

I sincerely don't know that. 

[ewen21]

 

Pitcher wins? Really?

 

Darvish pitched 186 very good innings in 2017. His win total is irrelevant, as it's not his fault the offense failed to score runs while he was on the mound (8th lowest run support in baseball last season).

I cited other reasons.  

 

I just don't see why we should go after him given what he seems to be looking for.

[adorduan]

 

Several posters on here, Mike and Chief come to mind, have made a valid observation if I am interpreting them correctly. And that is that their is a time to "overspend" and a time not to. This would be a time for the Twins to overspend. All professional sports teams operate in windows of opportunity. While,the length of time between those windows varies for numerous reasons, the Twins are in one. And in the Twins most recent history, that is a rarity. While I wont relitigate the pros and cons of a trade v a big FA payout, the bottom line is either you pay up now and take a shot at winning it all, or you remain simply one of many competitive teams with its most important part missing. Elite baseball pitcher sand football QB's are unique in that you can surround either with an average team and win, but you cannot do the reverse.

 

Trent Dilfer and the 2016 version of Peyton Manning beg to differ.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm not an expert in Gerontology by any means....

 

...and the peak year seems to be moving older because... make your own assumption... better training... stronger generations... PED's... More Wives......

I think it’s debatable. Would more wives move the peak years older?

[T_J]

 

On a non-snarky note, shoulder problems are a far larger, and continually more problematic concern than a TJ elbow.

 

 

 

*paging heezy*

 

Super fun story... Off topic...

... Last September I fractured my Glenoid and tore two labrums. My Doctor was the Twins team Doctor for 22 years and when he left he brought a couple of their Physical Therapist with him. I asked the Physical Therapist if I was a 38 (my age) year old Pitcher, how long would it take to get back to pitching and she said she would suggest retiring because It wouldn't happen. I asked if I was 25 and she said 16 months at the earliest. Long story short... My pitching dreams are over! Unless... Well My left arm doesn't have any innings on it... To be continued

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Personally... .... I've never been much of a paper guy. 

...

 

Rock? Scissors?

 

Or do you go in for one of the expansion pack characters, like Spock?

 

As to the "one player away" from a world series, Obviously one player does not a team make, but they can do a lot... i vaguely remember a few years back, when someone batted like .600 for the post season. He wasn't on a bad team, but the weird capacity to declare that no one will get him out for a couple of weeks probably would take almost any team to another level. That team brought yet another championship to the New England area despite the fact baseballs are not inflated.

 

I should remember what that fellow's name was...

[Mike Sixel]

I will never understand the "they aren't one player away, so they should not spend big money to get better" crowd. That reasoning pretty much leads to never signing a great player, since the odds of being 1 player away from being the best team in MLB are very low. We just come from different places, I guess. That's cool.

[Shane Wahl]

To me it is go Darvish or go home (trading for Archer involves some vagueness of course). Cobb is not worth it. End of story. 

I am comfortable with a plan of: Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, and Slegers to begin the season if there is no Darvish. May, Romero, and Gonsalves are there waiting for the bottom three to not be good enough. I am fine with that. The reality is that Gibson, Mejia, and Slegers are all really fifth starters barring over performance. But ok. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I will never understand the "they aren't one player away, so they should not spend big money to get better" crowd. That reasoning pretty much leads to never signing a great player, since the odds of being 1 player away from being the best team in MLB are very low. We just come from different places, I guess. That's cool.

 

I don't get the one player away argument because adding a really good pitcher definitely puts them in conversation. They had the best offense in baseball the second half of last season, and that production was coming from the younger players, all of whom could still reasonably take more steps forward. Their problem is pitching. Yeah, they don't have an ace at the 4/5 slot, but no team does.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't get the one player away argument because adding a really good pitcher definitely puts them in conversation. They had the best offense in baseball the second half of last season, and that production was coming from the younger players, all of whom could still reasonably take more steps forward. Their problem is pitching. Yeah, they don't have an ace at the 4/5 slot, but no team does.

Yeah, this. The Twins are a postseason team built on a young core.

 

If now isn't the time to add, it's never the time to add and the Twins may as well become the St Louis Browns in perpetuity.

[jimmer]

Do we just assume that because they scored the 2nd most runs in baseball in the 2nd half that they will continue that trend for the whole 2019 season?