What does it take to get Archer?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Since there is a Gerrit Cole topic, let’s try one for a better pitcher who could be a Twin for four years instead of two.

 

What kind of a deal would it take? And could they land him without giving up Lewis, Buxton, Sano, or Berrios?

 

Here’s my suggestion:

 

Kepler, Gonsalves, Jay, and Kiriloff.

 

Would that be enough? Would Gordon have to be in the deal? Or Rosario?

[amjgt]

I was thinking about this last night. If we signed Darvish and we're working on a deal for Archer, I'd reluctantly be willing to include Berrios in the conversations. It wouldn't be my first choice and it would severely limit the other players I'd include in the deal, but I'd listen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Since there is a Gerrit Cole topic, let’s try one for a better pitcher who could be a Twin for four years instead of two.

What kind of a deal would it take? And could they land him without giving up Lewis, Buxton, Sano, or Berrios?

Here’s my suggestion:

Kepler, Gonsalves, Jay, and Kiriloff.

Would that be enough? Would Gordon have to be in the deal? Or Rosario?

 

Well, Kepler or Rosario opens up a hole on the major league team. If they bit on swapping Gordon for Kepler, I might do it. I would try hard to unload at least one of their higher floor 40 man pitchers in the deal (like Jorge) instead of Jay, but it really comes down to what Tampa would want.

 

Also, Tampa needs international dollars after signing Marte. I know we just signed some kid for Europe, but if there's left over cash, that might help too.

[nicksaviking]

Corner OF bats are pretty affordable as far as free agents go, I'd include Kepler to get Archer if this team already has Darvish under contract. I'd include Gordon and Gonsalves as well. If this team is going to go for it, I'd like to see them do everything they can to make a serious run now, not a little bit this year and a little bit next year.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I know Lewis is a top prospect, but he’s unlikely to help us for several years, and that’s if he pans out. Archer helps us now, and in the future years. We have other middle infield talent in the pipeline as well.

 

I would trade Lewis, Kepler or Rosario, Jay, and Kirilloff. Hopefully we can retain our upper level pitching prospects, but none of them are untouchable either.

 

Maybe trading for Archer would make us more enticing to Darvish—show we’re committed to winning in our window.

[DocBauer]

I think the offers here are realistic, but I would do everything in my power to keep it at prospects and not include Kepler. I believe in him and really don't like the idea of opening another hole.

 

And while Kepler is young, I would think a rebuilding Tampa may like the idea of 5 prospects they can develop, promote and have total control over for as long as possible.

[nicksaviking]

I like Kepler but don't think he's ever going to be more than a league average player, which is still a good player, just not untouchable in my mind. I'm also concerned about his regression against LHP last year, I wouldn't give up on him playing full time yet, but I think the odds are pretty significant that he'll need to be a platoon player starting in the very near future.

 

That said, two of TB's three OF are already left handed, I'd guess getting a third isn't necessarily the perfect scenario for them. Unless they put Kepler at 1B, which isn't the worst thing in the world.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I like Kepler but don't think he's ever going to be more than a league average player, which is still a good player, just not untouchable in my mind. I'm also concerned about his regression against LHP last year, I wouldn't give up on him playing full time yet, but I think the odds are pretty significant that he'll need to be a platoon player starting in the very near future.

 

That said, two of TB's three OF are already left handed, I'd guess getting a third isn't necessarily the perfect scenario for them. Unless they put Kepler at 1B, which isn't the worst thing in the world.

He was already league average at the plate with above average defense in 2017. That's my hesitance to giving him up. I don't think that production is going to be replaced all that easily...

 

yes, they could sign a corner OF type in FA to make up for it, but I still don't see that guy replacing Kepler. Kepler wouldn't be untouchable, but I'd definitely be looking to add a minor leaguer instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

All evidence suggests that Archer isn't going for a quantity of prospects, but rather quality. Like at least one elite prospect headliner, just like the Quintana and Sale deals.  Yeah, Archer may not be as good as those guys, but with his ability and his contract, it certainly appears that Tampa is valuing him that way, or he would have already been dealt.

 

And given that, it's pretty clear that Gordon or Kepler couldn't lead that package.  I know Gordon was climbing some lists earlier this year, but then he posted a .221/.304/.305, .609 OPS line in the second half at AA. He's a good prospect, but he's not elite.  Kepler wasn't even an elite prospect when he was in the minors, and now he's got a MLB resumé of only "solid regular" and he's only a year away from arbitration salary, which is a concern for a franchise like Tampa. A good player, and a good piece of a potential deal, but he couldn't headline it.

 

If Archer were truly available, we'd basically have to win a bidding war, and it's virtually impossible to do that starting from a Gordon or Kepler led package. We'd have to put Lewis on the table, or one of our recently graduated elite prospects (Sano, Buxton, or perhaps Berrios). And since that won't happen, it's safe to say the Twins have no shot at Archer.

 

Cole is the more realistic target because the Pirates have to move him sooner / can't ask as much -- Cole only has 2 years of control left, versus potentially 4 for Archer.  And Cole's salaries will be higher the next 2 years too thanks to arbitration.  If you want one of these guys, the only realistic route is to stay in the conversation for Cole and hope the Pirates decide to pull the trigger.

[gunnarthor]

Archer has an affordable contract and he's been durable which is great but there's a real difference between how certain stats view him. He hasn't topped 2 bWAR since 2015.  To believe he's an ace, you have to firmly believe that fWAR is correct. Obviously, the Rays are going to say he's an ace and demand that kind of return but I think that's a pretty open question.

 

Kepler, straight up, might be more valuable (on a WAR basis only) over the next four years, for example. It might be easier to replace him since he's a corner OFer pitching is always in demand.

 

The Twins should be able to put a good package around Gordon and Gonsalves for a starting pitcher, with a couple throw-ins. I don't think Archer should, at most, cost much more than Hamel's did and he got three top 100 prospects and a couple nice side pieces. Sonny Gray got two top 100 prospects and a nice third piece (power corner OFer). Gray and Archer are both similarly valued by fWAR and bWAR with bWAR liking Gray more and fWAR liking Archer more. Gray is a year younger but Archer has shown to be more durable. Quintana got two top 100 prospects but one was elite and two so-so side prospects.

 

I might do as much as Gordon, Gonsalves and Romero with someone like Wade as my throw in (or equivalent) if I was convinced that fip is more accurate. That gives the Rays 3 top 100 prospects - and four prospects all in AA or above - back. But I wouldn't include anyone on the ML roster. If that's not enough, move on to a different target.

[drock2190]

One cause of concern is that Archer leans heavily on his slider. That could lead to Tommy John surgery down the road.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Archer has an affordable contract and he's been durable which is great but there's a real difference between how certain stats view him. He hasn't topped 2 bWAR since 2015.  To believe he's an ace, you have to firmly believe that fWAR is correct. Obviously, the Rays are going to say he's an ace and demand that kind of return but I think that's a pretty open question.

 

Kepler, straight up, might be more valuable (on a WAR basis only) over the next four years, for example. It might be easier to replace him since he's a corner OFer pitching is always in demand.

 

The Twins should be able to put a good package around Gordon and Gonsalves for a starting pitcher, with a couple throw-ins. I don't think Archer should, at most, cost much more than Hamel's did and he got three top 100 prospects and a couple nice side pieces. Sonny Gray got two top 100 prospects and a nice third piece (power corner OFer). Gray and Archer are both similarly valued by fWAR and bWAR with bWAR liking Gray more and fWAR liking Archer more. Gray is a year younger but Archer has shown to be more durable. Quintana got two top 100 prospects but one was elite and two so-so side prospects.

 

I might do as much as Gordon, Gonsalves and Romero with someone like Wade as my throw in (or equivalent) if I was convinced that fip is more accurate. That gives the Rays 3 top 100 prospects - and four prospects all in AA or above - back. But I wouldn't include anyone on the ML roster. If that's not enough, move on to a different target.

 

I actually agree. His stuff and underlying numbers have never shown in the actual results. As much as I trust process, at some point, results matter. He's Gray, not an ACE, imo.

 

Gordon, Gonsalves, another AA pitcher and Kiriloff should be enough. If not, I don't do it.

 

And, I'm higher on Gordon than most. He's not flashy, but he'll put up 2-3 WAR per year for the next 10 years, imo. That certainty has real value.

[Vanimal46]

Every reason the Twins (or insert any team name here) say why we should trade for him (durable, eats innings, misses bats, incredibly team friendly contract) are the exact same reasons the Rays say why would we trade him? Unless someone pays a king's ransom he's not going anywhere this winter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Archer has an affordable contract and he's been durable which is great but there's a real difference between how certain stats view him. He hasn't topped 2 bWAR since 2015.  To believe he's an ace, you have to firmly believe that fWAR is correct. Obviously, the Rays are going to say he's an ace and demand that kind of return but I think that's a pretty open question.

That's fair, and I guess that speaks to whether the Twins *should* acquire him.

 

But for the purposes of whether the Twins *could* acquire him, or what price it would take, your last sentence is going to be the instructive one. Looking at the market, I have a feeling that if Archer were genuinely made available, there would be no shortage of potential suitors, and the resulting bidding war would have to reach ace-level prices before he was moved.

 

The Rays have zero incentive to trade him right now for some mix of Kepler, Gordon, Gonsalves.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be fair to Archer, the quality of the Tampa squads behind him have probably affected him a bit. Not trying to make excuses, but his best season so far (2015), he wound up with a 12-13 record. I could see a pitcher like that trying to be more aggressive and seeing some of his results suffer.

 

Not that I'd bet on him finally becoming a true elite ace, which is probably why he hasn't been dealt so far.  But the Rays are betting on his abilities either helping them, or combining with the market to fetch an elite ace return.

 

As it is, with his abilities, age, and contract, the Rays should have no trouble moving him for a solid-but-not-elite package anytime in the next year or two if they ever decide to do so.

[cmoss84]

Whether he is an ace or a 2 is debatable, to some degree, even though I see him as an ace. To me, an ace is a guy that can shut down any lineup, any night...and be durable. There might only be a dozen "aces" in the league. 

 

What separates him from not being an ace (anyone can answer this that doesn't believe he's an ace)? How many aces do you see in the league?

 

It is going to take a haul to get him. A big one. 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I actually agree. His stuff and underlying numbers have never shown in the actual results. As much as I trust process, at some point, results matter. He's Gray, not an ACE, imo.

 

Gordon, Gonsalves, another AA pitcher and Kiriloff should be enough. If not, I don't do it.

 

And, I'm higher on Gordon than most. He's not flashy, but he'll put up 2-3 WAR per year for the next 10 years, imo. That certainty has real value.

 

I'd be very interested in seeing how Archer does when he's getting 47% of his starts against KC, Detroit, CHW and CLE instead of the perennial big boppers in NY, BOS, TOR and BAL.

 

I'd guess the insane lineups the AL East has been running out there for the last decade is why his counting stats are less impressive than the underlying numbers, some of which take into account opponent and park factors. For the same reason, it's probably why I'm just as interested in Odorizzi as I am Gerrit Cole.

 

Anyway, I want a guy who can stare down the Yankees in the playoffs and Archer's got a career 2.96 ERA against them and has given up less than a HR per 9 IP. If he can continue to do that, he'll give you a chance to win.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd be very interested in seeing how Archer does when he's getting 47% of his starts against KC, Detroit, CHW and CLE instead of the perennial big boppers in NY, BOS, TOR and BAL.

Interesting.  Archer's worst opponent is CLE, 0-7 in 7 starts with a 5.87 ERA.  Next worse is BOS, 2-12 in 19 GS with a 5.45 ERA.  Baltimore has been tough on him too.

 

But as you note, he's been good against the Yankees (and also Toronto), so I'm not sure his division is an excuse for the results we've seen to date.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=archech01&year=Career&t=p#oppon_extra::5

 

His most preferred AL opponent, to date, might be the Twins. 6-1, 1.84 ERA in 7 starts.

[drjim]

Typical Twins move, going after a guy because he has such great success against them.

[ashbury]

One cause of concern is that Archer leans heavily on his slider. That could lead to Tommy John surgery down the road.

Here's a recent study by someone who went looking for this connection and didn't find it:

 

http://www.jameshbuffi.com/tommy-john-pitch-selection/

[JA]

It certainly would take a big package to acquire Archer. I like going after the free agent route to see if an improvement to the rotation can be had. if nothing can be had, then possibly explore a trade for an Archer, Cole, Duffy, Odorizzi type. When factoring in the acquisition cost, I like Odorizzi out of this group.

Lewis-untouchable,Gordon appears to be a solid regular, 2-3 war player, Stephan Gonsalves had more than held his own at all minor league stops and looks to be a rotation workhorse for the next half decade or so, and Max Kepler is about to break out into a star. 

A trade for one of these types could include a Gordon, Rooker, Kirilloff, Jorge, Jay type, but I would prefer to not see someone like Lewis, Kepler, or Gonsalves, and for pete's sake not Berrios.

[laloesch]

 

I was thinking about this last night. If we signed Darvish and we're working on a deal for Archer, I'd reluctantly be willing to include Berrios in the conversations. It wouldn't be my first choice and it would severely limit the other players I'd include in the deal, but I'd listen.

 

Well from all indications and the Ray's themselves they've basically stated it would take a King's ransom to pry any of those pitchers loose from them.  I think they fully intend to roll with the group they have this season unless someone overwhelms them with an unbelievably good offer.  I prefer the Twins don't go that route because it will likely gut the farm system for one pitcher.  I'd rather they go free agent route especially now that Hughes and Mauer salaries are about to come off the payroll.  

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd be very interested in seeing how Archer does when he's getting 47% of his starts against KC, Detroit, CHW and CLE instead of the perennial big boppers in NY, BOS, TOR and BAL.

Didn't the AL Central represent the AL in the World Series 3 out of the last four years? Didn't Cleveland just win 102 games? The AL East hasn't been some superPEDowered division for some time now. Toronto has made the playoffs twice since 1994. The AL East isn't hard on pitchers b/c it has five elite offenses. It's tough on pitchers b/c three of the parks are jokes and overly kind to hitters. Tampa happens to be a pitcher's park which has greatly helped Archer - in 80 home starts, his era is nearly a full run lower than his away era (also in 80 starts). He has an era over 7 in his combined starts at Balt and Fenway, for example. I'm fairly sure that the Archer we've seen for the last four years will be the Archer we get if we trade for him (barring injury of course).

[TheLeviathan]

What would it take? 

 

More than we have to give at this point.  Maybe in a year if a few of those SPs in our system develop into having more prospect cred.

[jorgenswest]

Buxton or Berrios

[Platoon]

Interesting.  Archer's worst opponent is CLE, 0-7 in 7 starts with a 5.87 ERA.  Next worse is BOS, 2-12 in 19 GS with a 5.45 ERA.  Baltimore has been tough on him too.

 

But as you note, he's been good against the Yankees (and also Toronto), so I'm not sure his division is an excuse for the results we've seen to date.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=archech01&year=Career&t=p#oppon_extra::5

 

His most preferred AL opponent, to date, might be the Twins. 6-1, 1.84 ERA in 7 starts.

One could say that about many pitchers in the last decade.

[Brandon]

With Tampa Bay trading their franchis ICON Evan Longoria to the Giants today they have pretty much decided to tear down and rebuild. Archer should be available now. He also will cost alot of prospects. For that reason we should also make a hard run at one of the free agent starting pitchers in the big 4 (Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb) That way we have 3 pitchers locked up the next 4 years and Santana for up to 2 more as well. We will be able to get by with fewer pitching prospects if we include 4 or so in a trade for Archer. For Example ( Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and Poppin) to go along with Gordon and maybe Wade or Granite or we could include Gibson to offset some cash for signing Darvish. Maybe we package Hughes and some cash and some prospects to be rid of his contract. But anyway you look add it Tampa has announced they are in a full rebuild this morning with the Longoria trade and we are in a oosition to capitalize on it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With Tampa Bay trading their franchis ICON Evan Longoria to the Giants today they have pretty much decided to tear down and rebuild. Archer should be available now. 

Not necessarily. Longoria was expensive. He made $13 mil last year, and his salary goes up every year through 2022 for a total remaining guarantee of $86 mil.  By moving him, the Rays get a ton of salary relief, which would not be the case with an Archer trade (Archer is only guaranteed $16 mil, spread over 2-4 years).

 

And Longoria is coming off a 100 OPS+ season, the worst mark of his career, and just turned 32. He also was set to earn no-trade rights in April (as a 10-and-5 player). Considering his contract, the Rays may have seen this as the last opportunity to do something with Longoria.  Again, not the case with Archer, whose trade value/interest will likely remain high for the next year or two, barring unforeseen circumstances.

[Brandon]

Spycake you are correct about why they would trade Longoria but that trade is also a signal they are sellers. They just traded away one if their biggest hitters in their history. Reloading with prospects to take another run in 2 years is probably preferable to them. So a strong package with 5 or 6 good prospects mostly pitchers may win us the trade. But to gut out half our pitching prospects we should also sign a top FA pitcher too. Again if we have 3 starters locked up for 4 seasons we should have plenty of time to develop some more prospects.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

One cause of concern is that Archer leans heavily on his slider. That could lead to Tommy John surgery down the road.

Actually the recent data is more indicative that throwing more fastballs have more of a correlation to TJS. 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/21/sports/baseball/fastballs-can-lead-to-tommy-john-surgery-study-finds.html

 

 

But one factor stood out: pitchers who had surgery threw fastballs 46.8 percent of the time, compared to 39.7 percent among those who had not had an operation. The researchers concluded that just throwing fastballs — irrespective of velocity — significantly increases the risk for injury and Tommy John surgery. None of the other factors they looked at made any difference.

 

The lead author of the study, Dr. Robert A. Keller, the chief orthopedics resident at Henry Ford, said that there had been biomechanical studies looking at the forces imposed by different pitches and that they showed that the fastball put the most torque on the shoulder and elbow.

 

“Pitchers who throw at their maximum speed, whatever that speed is, they’re hurting their arms,” Dr. Keller said. “The ones throwing fastballs are putting more force on their arms more often.”

 

Many parents of Little Leaguers believe that the curveball is the culprit in arm injuries, and Dr. Keller said that the findings of his study may not translate to younger players.

 

“Professional pitchers have great mechanics and know how to throw a curve or a fastball,” he said. “It may be that younger pitchers are at more risk because their mechanics are not as good.”

But for major league pitchers, the researchers calculated that there was a 2 percent increase in the risk for ulnar collateral ligament surgery for every 1 percent increase in the number of fastballs they threw.