What does it take to get Archer?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Spycake you are correct about why they would trade Longoria but that trade is also a signal they are sellers. They just traded away one if their biggest hitters in their history. Reliadung with prospects to take another run in 2 years is probably oreferable to them. So a strong package with 5 good prospects mostly pitchers may win us the trade.

Tampa is perpetually a seller, they didn't need to signal it.

 

Also notice they got back Denard Span (and his salary) and a MLB ready prospect in this deal.  It's quite possible they are trying to reload for 2018 *with* Archer, rather than pushing their timeline further out.  They just won 80 games and had a virtual tie for a wild card spot in August, so it's not like they are hopeless for the immediate future.

 

Look at their pitching staff -- even losing Cobb, they still have Archer (for 4 years), Odorizzi (2), Snell (5), Faria (6), and Honeywell (6-7), plus assorted others like Andriese and De Leon. There is no reason they'd have to move Archer at this point to rebuild with guys like Gonsalves from the Twins.

 

If anything, they need hitters (2nd to last in AL runs scored), and their top prospect has been SS Adames, and they just acquired INF Arroyo, so their interest in Gordon may not be all that high either.  They'll probably look to the bargain bin for guys like Logan Morrison again.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Spycake you are correct about why they would trade Longoria but that trade is also a signal they are sellers. They just traded away one if their biggest hitters in their history. Reloading with prospects to take another run in 2 years is probably preferable to them. So a strong package with 5 or 6 good prospects mostly pitchers may win us the trade. But to gut out half our pitching prospects we should also sign a top FA pitcher too. Again if we have 3 starters locked up for 4 seasons we should have plenty of time to develop some more prospects.

The Twins will have plenty of competition to pursuing Archer, the Cubs for one.  And Chicago has an abundance of young cost controlled positional players that are MLB ready that they have shown a willingness to entertain offers on.  So whatever package the Twins put together it's likely going to have to include Gordon or Royce Lewis or Berrios plus a couple of the top arms (Gonsalves, Romero) and even then that is likely too light.

[Brandon]

If they want position players we could go with Lewis, Wade, Garver, Killeroff and a pitcher or 2. Others like Jorge Polancoor Gordon, Escobar, or Kepler could be included as well. They may want a pitcher or two for depth.

 

So Im sure from what we have we can find a package of prospects to get a deal done. The Cubs would need to trade from their major league roster as their farm is thinning iut after several trades. Also if they get Archer that would keep us as favorites in the Darvish sweepstakes so loosing on Archer is ok too. We can give up fewer prospects for Odorizzi....

[Riverbrian]

I remember the Myers, Turner, Souza trade... In hindsight that sure turned out to be a goofy trade for the Rays. 

 

If the Twins are able to strike a deal with them for a pitcher.

 

I hope the Rays are still just as bad at making deals. 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

If they want position players we could go with Lewis, Wade, Garver, Killeroff and a pitcher or 2. Others like Jorge Polancoor Gordon, Escobar, or Kepler could be included as well. They may want a pitcher or two for depth.

So Im sure from what we have we can find a package of prospects to get a deal done. The Cubs would need to trade from their major league roster as their farm is thinning iut after several trades. Also if they get Archer that would keep us as favorites in the Darvish sweepstakes so loosing on Archer is ok too. We can give up fewer prospects for Odorizzi....

If you part with Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, and Polanco that's a good starting point in talks.  The Cubs have Schwarber and/or Happ that can be had for controllable starting pitching and they still have a few chips in the lower levels.  And with Chicago's upcoming salary bumps in the next 2-3 years, they have more reason to trade for a controllable arm (albeit one they traded away in the Matt Garza deal) rather than signing a SP for big money for 5/6 years.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I remember the Myers, Turner, Souza trade... In hindsight that sure turned out to be a goofy trade for the Rays. 

 

If the Twins are able to strike a deal with them for a pitcher.

 

I hope the Rays are still just as bad at making deals. 

Do NOT write off Souza yet, and if you compare all  three of those players, Souza had the best year of the 3 in 2017.  He put up a .810 OPS a 120 wRC+ and a 3.7 WAR while Myers put up .792 OPS,  109 wRC+, and a .9 WAR and Turner put up a .789 OPS, a 105 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR.

[nicksaviking]

Not necessarily. Longoria was expensive. He made $13 mil last year, and his salary goes up every year through 2022 for a total remaining guarantee of $86 mil. By moving him, the Rays get a ton of salary relief, which would not be the case with an Archer trade (Archer is only guaranteed $16 mil, spread over 2-4 years).

 

 

I agree with the logic; Longoria was less of a need and the team could more afford to lose him and stay competitive.

 

But he is the face of the organization, to me it seems like trading Longoria was like ripping off the band-aid. TB absolutely should rebuild considering how the Yankees and Red Sox look right now and considering that the other two also-rans in the division, Toronto and Baltimore, seem to be indecisive. Trading Longoria makes it so much easier for them to detach themselves from their other valuable assets.

[Brandon]

 

If you part with Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, and Polanco that's a good starting point in talks.  The Cubs have Schwarber and/or Happ that can be had for controllable starting pitching and they still have a few chips in the lower levels.  And with Chicago's upcoming salary bumps in the next 2-3 years, they have more reason to trade for a controllable arm (albeit one they traded away in the Matt Garza deal) rather than signing a SP for big money for 5/6 years.

 

 

 

 

 

I would be more comfortable trading more prospects to get a pitcher like Archer if we had a second pitcher like Darvish, Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta signed before we make the trade. Meaning Archer is more valuable to us after we sign a pitcher than before because we are more likely to have holes in the staff in the future with only 2 pitchers locked up for 4 years as opposed to 3.  

[Riverbrian]

 

Do NOT write off Souza yet, and if you compare all  three of those players, Souza had the best year of the 3 in 2017.  He put up a .810 OPS a 120 wRC+ and a 3.7 WAR while Myers put up .792 OPS,  109 wRC+, and a .9 WAR and Turner put up a .789 OPS, a 105 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR.

 

It was giving up Turner and Ross for him where they lost me. 

 

Souza vs. Myers... I'm probably taking Souza. 

 

I realize the deal was more complicated than just that.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

But he is the face of the organization, to me it seems like trading Longoria was like ripping off the band-aid.

When the franchise is Tampa, I don't think trading the "face" of it hurts all that much. They've done stuff not unlike this before -- Shields, Price, Zobrist. Doesn't mean they have to do a complete teardown unless teams are really willing to pay elite prices right now for Archer.

[Brandon]

I was thinking about this last night. If we signed Darvish and we're working on a deal for Archer, I'd reluctantly be willing to include Berrios in the conversations. It wouldn't be my first choice and it would severely limit the other players I'd include in the deal, but I'd listen.

I wouldnt include berrios but i would be willing to include extra prosoects in the deal to make it happen.

[nicksaviking]

 

When the franchise is Tampa, I don't think trading the "face" of it hurts all that much. They've done stuff not unlike this before -- Shields, Price, Zobrist. Doesn't mean they have to do a complete teardown unless teams are really willing to pay elite prices right now for Archer.

 

Maybe I've always had the wrong impression, but I thought Longoria was Rays' version of Kirby Puckett or Tony Gwynn or Ozzie Smith, simply the most beloved of all Rays players. I thought that's why the Rays even felt compelled to give him that second extension to begin with.

[Guest]

If you part with Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, and Polanco that's a good starting point in talks. The Cubs have Schwarber and/or Happ that can be had for controllable starting pitching and they still have a few chips in the lower levels. And with Chicago's upcoming salary bumps in the next 2-3 years, they have more reason to trade for a controllable arm (albeit one they traded away in the Matt Garza deal) rather than signing a SP for big money for 5/6 years.

I would hope the Twins would walk away from Polanco, Lewis, Gonsalves and Romero for Archer. At the very least, at this time, you have to expect that Lewis, a #1 pick, is a future All Star, Polanco is a starting MLB shortstop, and Gonsalves and Romero could contribute this year. Archer is good, but not a superstar. Trading three MLB contributors, including a starting middle infielder, plus a possible future star, is too much.

 

I would base a trade on Polanco, Romero and Kiriloff.

[Physics Guy]

After reading John Bonnes' post regarding trade assets, I started contemplating a trade in the current environment.  I would be willing to give up significant assets to get Archer, especially if we can sign a FA starter as well.  TB would most likely want young SP.  They also have a hole on the right side of the infield.  Brad Miller was awful last year and they aren't going to pay Logan Morrison.  I have to think they would like to dump Span's contract and he could still be useful for a couple of years as a corner OF.  So here is my proposal:

 

Twins get:

Archer, Alex Colome, Denard Span

 

Rays get:

Kepler, Polanco, Meijia, Garver,+?

 

If we can somehow get Darvish or more likely Cobb, we have:

 

C - Castro, resign Gimenez?

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier

SS - Escobar, Adrianza (until Gordon is ready)

3B - Sano

LF - Span

CF - Buxton

RF - Rosario

 

Grossman, Granite, IF?

 

Rotation - Archer, Darvish/Cobb, Santana, Berrios, Gibson

Bullpen - Rodney, Colome, Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly, Duffey, Busenitz

 

[darin617]

Dream on dude! That package would not get you either pitcher alone. You would have to put in at least 3 or the Twins top 5 prospects in the deal to even get Tampa's attention.

 

They traded Longoria because of the money owed to him & the fact that he has not batted as well as he did earlier in his career.

[Physics Guy]

After thinking about it, Colome probably can't be included in that deal.  Taking on Span's contract has to be worth something as it might allow them to sign a 1B.  The Twins would be giving up 3 players who would be starters for the Rays.  What about swapping Romero for Garver?  Rosario for Kepler?

[Physics Guy]

 

 

Dream on dude! That package would not get you either pitcher alone. You would have to put in at least 3 or the Twins top 5 prospects in the deal to even get Tampa's attention.

 

They traded Longoria because of the money owed to him & the fact that he has not batted as well as he did earlier in his career.

By the way, you can dream on about Colome getting that kind of return.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

the +? would probably have to be Gonsalvez and I'm not sure that's enough.

[nicksaviking]

I have merged the second 'Trade for Archer' thread. I think one is enough.

[Physics Guy]

I have merged the second 'Trade for Archer' thread. I think one is enough.

Agreed. As son as I posted I realized I should have put it here.

[darin617]

 

I have merged the second 'Trade for Archer' thread. I think one is enough.

Good move the "Archer dream" would have got beat to death on it's own. This way it gets buried here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe I've always had the wrong impression, but I thought Longoria was Rays' version of Kirby Puckett or Tony Gwynn or Ozzie Smith, simply the most beloved of all Rays players. I thought that's why the Rays even felt compelled to give him that second extension to begin with.

Somewhat. Those guys had a national presence, though. And again, the Tampa Rays baseball world is a pretty small bowl, being the biggest fish there isn't necessarily the same thing as elsewhere. It probably gets as much attention for Yankees spring training as it does for the Rays.

 

The second extension was an unusual commitment by Tampa, but it also gave them the flexibility to keep him through his prime and still trade him for something before he got no-trade rights.

[darin617]

 

 

By the way, you can dream on about Colome getting that kind of return.

Look him up before you jump to your conclusion. He is under team control through 2021. Entering his first year of arbitration. Solid closer that will be cheap compared to the deals handed out for 2-3rd rate bullpen arms have got so far this off season.

[Physics Guy]

the +? would probably have to be Gonsalvez and I'm not sure that's enough.

I would give up Rosario, Polanco, Meijia and Romero for Archer and Span. Other than lower level additions, I wouldn’t be willing to give up more than that. They are getting 3-4 guys who start on their club.

[darin617]

 

I would give up Rosario, Polanco, Meijia and Romero for Archer and Span. Other than lower level additions, I wouldn’t be willing to give up more than that. They are getting 3-4 guys who start on their club.

Mejia doesn't bring much trade value to the table. Nothing more than a 5th starter at best. The Ray's would want young controllable players in the trade. They don't want to spend money to keep players. It's a Florida thing i guess...

[Guest]

The Rays have two strengths: Archer is on a fantastic deal and their minor leagues currently have several good pitching and MI candidates. A third strength may be their outfield depth on reasonable deals. It will be an interesting negotiation.

[Physics Guy]

Mejia doesn't bring much trade value to the table. Nothing more than a 5th starter at best. The Ray's would want young controllable players in the trade. They don't want to spend money to keep players. It's a Florida thing i guess...

I think you are undervaluing Mejia. When the Twins traded for him he was regarded as a likely 4th starter with 3rd starter upside. He is clearly not the prime asset in my proposed trade, but would give them a replacement starter along with the higher upside Romero.

 

Which of the suggested players is not young and controllable? None are arbitration eligible this season and all but Romero are potential starters for their team this year. I also think there is value to the Rays in trading away Span's contract.

[ahart10]

Gordon, Kiriloff, Romero, Jorge, Stewart, Littel, and Gibson + his salary for Archer and Colome. ??

[Mr. Brooks]

I think you are undervaluing Mejia. When the Twins traded for him he was regarded as a likely 4th starter with 3rd starter upside. He is clearly not the prime asset in my proposed trade, but would give them a replacement starter along with the higher upside Romero.

 

Which of the suggested players is not young and controllable? None are arbitration eligible this season and all but Romero are potential starters for their team this year. I also think there is value to the Rays in trading away Span's contract.

One of those players has the same number of years of team control as Archer. Two more have only 1 extra year.

I would assume if the Rays are trading a guy with 4 years of team control- with a cheap contract to boot, that they will be looking for the full 6 year window in return. Otherwise it doesn't make sense to even trade him.

[Winston Smith]

Maybe a trade centered around Sano for Archer? They seemed to do ok without Sano and his long term injury concerns have to be considered.