Treading Water while the MLB trend points toward disparity

[Richie the Rally Goat]

In the ESPN article below, MLB has begun a trend back towards disparity. Teams have begun taking a more clearly defined rebuild/push to World Series contention.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21769342

 

It’s not clear to me where Falvine really see their team. Much like the Marlins, the Twins have a very good hitting side of the team and need help on the pitching side.

 

With the winter meetings concluded. What are the indications? How do you read the tea leaves? Is it still realistic to get Darvish and does that change the narrative in context to the disparity of the league?

[nicksaviking]

The Angels and Yankees have done too much to stand pat. Cleveland, Houston and Boston are already loaded, the Twins need to do more to contend; Darvish plus a trade for another big arm is needed at minimum in my opinion if they want to be legit. 

 

I agree though, if the team doesn't go for it, and if the rest of the league is tanking so they can go for it at a later date, the Twins are in a dangerous middle ground where they could be perpetually average for a long time.

 

Teams like Minnesota, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto and Seattle could be in big trouble if they find themselves to be run by people who aren't absolute in their decisiveness. I sure hope our new guys are decisive, half measures are going to put a team in purgatory. This era of baseball surely would have haunted Terry Ryan.

[Thrylos]

The Angel grade is conditional on Otani not having Tommy John surgery and sitting most of 2018 and part of 2019, which is a possibility that should not be discounted.   

 

Kinda silly to assign off-season grades before ST starts, IMHO

[twins_89]

Angels have re-signed Upton while adding Kinsler, Cozart, and Ohtani. Add in a healthy Trout and I think it's fair to say that they've separated themselves from the Twins going into next season.

[laloesch]

 

Angels have re-signed Upton while adding Kinsler, Cozart, and Ohtani. Add in a healthy Trout and I think it's fair to say that they've separated themselves from the Twins going into next season.

 

Easily.  The Twins haven't done diddly squat so far to help themselves in 2018 for all intensive purposes.  And yes, IMO signing a 41 year old pitcher with a history of blowing saves is not going to push them to the front of the pack. Sorry.

 

Like others have said, i'll believe it when I see it from this front office.  So far we've seen some dumpster diving, a couple of flips at the trade deadline, a TJ gamble signing and a couple of rule five picks.  While i'll give them credit for being clever and thinking outside the box it ain't gonna move the dial significantly, unless they finally make some big moves such as trading for Cole or Archer or signing Darvish or Lynn, etc.  Until then this is all cute and all but not gonna make this team a world series contender anytime soon.    

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Angels have re-signed Upton while adding Kinsler, Cozart, and Ohtani. Add in a healthy Trout and I think it's fair to say that they've separated themselves from the Twins going into next season.

 

If Ohtani doesn't pitch next season who are their other pitchers? Garrett Richards has only pitched in 12 total games over the last 2 seasons. I'd also take the Twins offense over the Angels.  Mauer, Dozier, Sano/Escobar and Kepler are better than their counter parts. I'll give them Simmons, Upton and Trout. DH is a toss up at this point and it might lean the Twins way if Sano ends up spending a significant portion of the season there. Pujols is pretty washed up.  < .290 OBP% and < .390 SLG% last season.

[Linus]

Andy MacPhail was a big believer in the notion that most teams were going to have certain windows for winning championships and they needed to go all in when that window opened.

[Squirrel]

 

The Angels and Yankees have done too much to stand pat. Cleveland, Houston and Boston are already loaded, the Twins need to do more to contend; Darvish plus a trade for another big arm is needed at minimum in my opinion if they want to be legit. 

 

This ... plus perhaps a better bp option, or two. Our 40-man roster is now at 39. Dervish (if we sign him, and I'm very skeptical despite some of PR) would make it 40, which means a trade or two or a release or two. I can maybe see holding off a little on the bp but what has been done to date doesn't give me a lot of hope for contention in 2018. We might be an okay team, but we need more to be a serious contender.

[howieramone2]

 

The Angels and Yankees have done too much to stand pat. Cleveland, Houston and Boston are already loaded, the Twins need to do more to contend; Darvish plus a trade for another big arm is needed at minimum in my opinion if they want to be legit. 

 

I agree though, if the team doesn't go for it, and if the rest of the league is tanking so they can go for it at a later date, the Twins are in a dangerous middle ground where they could be perpetually average for a long time.

 

Teams like Minnesota, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto and Seattle could be in big trouble if they find themselves to be run by people who aren't absolute in their decisiveness. I sure hope our new guys are decisive, half measures are going to put a team in purgatory. This era of baseball surely would have haunted Terry Ryan.

No. For those who don't know, the dangerous middle ground is those teams not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get high drafts picks. We are way better than that. Enough doom and gloom. Also, TR is nationally know as one or the finest baseball minds of his generation. He's not haunted by ****. Time to move on.

[laloesch]

No. For those who don't know, the dangerous middle ground is those teams not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get high drafts picks. We are way better than that. Enough doom and gloom. Also, TR is nationally know as one or the finest baseball minds of his generation. He's not haunted by ****. Time to move on.

With no pitching they are not good enough to beat Cleveland for the Division Title so that limits them to wild card at best. Forget about beating the Yankees if they can even make the playoffs. Maybe good enough for 80-85 wins but that's about it. Unless some of the pitching prospects miraculously take a big step forward in 2018 and 2019.

[Riverbrian]

 

With no pitching they are not good enough to beat Cleveland for the Division Title so that limits them to wild card at best. Forget about beating the Yankees if they can even make the playoffs. Maybe good enough for 80-85 wins but that's about it. Unless some of the pitching prospects miraculously take a big step forward in 2018 and 2019.

 

I've never known Baseball to go as predicted. 

 

Personally... I won't hand Cleveland anything. They still got to earn it. 

[jimmer]

 

I've never known Baseball to go as predicted. 

 

Personally... I won't hand Cleveland anything. They still got to earn it. 

A lot of people said that about the Indians going into last season.  And they thought they were prophetic in June.

 

The Indians won the division by 17.

 

Teams with clearly superior talent usually win out over 162 games.

[Riverbrian]

 

No. For those who don't know, the dangerous middle ground is those teams not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get high drafts picks. We are way better than that. Enough doom and gloom. Also, TR is nationally know as one or the finest baseball minds of his generation. He's not haunted by ****. Time to move on.

 

I agree that Ryan gets slammed harder and more often than he deserves. However... I intentionally bolded three words of your paragraph.   

 

Nick is right... We better spend on some pitching because you are also right. "We are way better than that"   

[jimmer]

 

I agree that Ryan gets slammed harder and more often than he deserves. However... I intentionally bolded three words of your paragraph.   

 

Nick is right... We better spend on some pitching because you are also right. "We are way better than that"   

Pretty soon, we need to stop with the whole Ryan bashing and Ryan defending.  

In fact, it's past time for that to happen.

 

Ryan is gone, and we need to move on.

[Riverbrian]

 

A lot of people said that about the Indians going into last season.  

 

Yep

 

And the Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Tigers, Mets, Cardinals and Giants. 

[jimmer]

 

Yep

 

And the Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Tigers, Mets, Cardinals and Giants. 

yeah, I'm talking about our division. The Indians won the division by 17.

Teams with clearly superior talent usually win out over 162 games.

 

BTW, I don't remember anyone praising the Giants, Tigers or Mariners.  There were teams obviously better in their divisions.

[Riverbrian]

 

Pretty soon, we need to stop with the whole Ryan bashing and Ryan defending.  

In fact, it's past time for that to happen.

 

Ryan is gone, and we need to move on.

 

I agree but also believe it will be impossible. 

[Riverbrian]

 

yeah, I'm talking about our division. The Indians won the division by 17.

Teams with clearly superior talent usually win out over 162 games.

 

BTW, I don't remember anyone praising the Giants, Tigers or Mariners.

 

We must have been reading different stuff. 

 

The Giants may have been dwarfed by the Dodgers love but nobody was talking D-Backs. Everyone had the Giants penciled in for 2nd place in the NL West with the Rockies as the new darling darkhorse. 

 

The Tigers were the clear 2nd place in the Central team because nobody liked the Royals, Twins or White Sox. 

 

And Everybody loved the moves made by Dipoto so I read Mariners enough times. 

 

Anyway... There is no doubt that superior talent wins out over 162 games. The trick is predicting who will be that superior talent in 2018. It doesn't always match up with what the predictors predict. 

[drjim]

Obviously still needs to shake out, but Indians have lost their third best reliever, a major bat, and key players (Kluber, Miller) ended the season with injury.

 

Twins should probably push in a little bit.

[oregontwin]

 

A lot of people said that about the Indians going into last season.  And they thought they were prophetic in June.

 

The Indians won the division by 17.

 

Teams with clearly superior talent usually win out over 162 games.

But let's not forget the incredible number of consecutive wins it took to lead the division by 17. I'm betting they can't match that magic again....ever. They likely weren't as good as 102 wins might suggest.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Im predicting that injuries and trades along with contributions from young players that werent counted on will make this another unpredictable year. I like our chances!

[jimmer]

 

But let's not forget the incredible number of consecutive wins it took to lead the division by 17. I'm betting they can't match that magic again....ever. They likely weren't as good as 102 wins might suggest.

Nor were they as bad as what their record said middle June.  Goes both ways.  They were clearly superior than every team in the division and they got to play, what, 72 games against the division?

[spinowner]

 

I agree though, if the team doesn't go for it, and if the rest of the league is tanking so they can go for it at a later date, the Twins are in a dangerous middle ground where they could be perpetually average for a long time.

This is nowhere near as true for baseball as it is for other sports, especially basketball. There are a ton of very good baseball players who were not taken in the first round, which means every team had a chance to take them. Making good draft picks can lead to consistent success at the major league level without having to be near the top of the first round.

[ashbury]

Im predicting ... another unpredictable year.

But if it's unpredictable then your prediction is not likely to come true. But if your prediction does not come true, then prediction is possible. But if prediction is possible, then another unpredictable year will come. But if it's unpredictable then your prediction is not likely to come true. But if your prediction does not come true... Illogical, illogical. All units relate. All units. Norman, coordinate!!!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

With no pitching they are not good enough to beat Cleveland for the Division Title so that limits them to wild card at best. Forget about beating the Yankees if they can even make the playoffs. Maybe good enough for 80-85 wins but that's about it. Unless some of the pitching prospects miraculously take a big step forward in 2018 and 2019.

80-85 wins in a league with 2 100 game winners and 6 60 game winners of which 2 are in their division. They could conceivably get more than half their wins against two teams.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Pretty soon, we need to stop with the whole Ryan bashing and Ryan defending.  

In fact, it's past time for that to happen.

 

Ryan is gone, and we need to move on.

 

There needs to be a love button for this post. Too good for just a like...

 

and a slight mod note, but let's all follow Jimmer's advice and keep this thread from turning into yet another debate on Ryan.  Thanks.

[Thegrin]

We've seen this before.  So what if the league becomes the haves vs the have nots. The Big 10 football has been lopsided since forever. It didn't stop the fans from watching.

In the 50's The Kansas City A's were considered to be a farm team for the Yankees. (Remember Roger Maris).  That didn't stop the fans from watching. 

Why worry about other teams progress. The Twins can only do so much.  A bad arm, a broken leg, a drinking/drug problem, a drunken brawl, a little wife swapping.  So many things can ruin a team.  

May bad luck befall all the haves. Let bad luck leave the Twins alone and let us enjoy another winning season. 

[USAFChief]

But if it's unpredictable then your prediction is not likely to come true. But if your prediction does not come true, then prediction is possible. But if prediction is possible, then another unpredictable year will come. But if it's unpredictable then your prediction is not likely to come true. But if your prediction does not come true... Illogical, illogical. All units relate. All units. Norman, coordinate!!!

predictable.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My take on the original points:

 

1. The offseason isn't over yet... not quite ready to say the Twins are treading water. They may be, but given that they are being linked to Darvish, I think there's evidence that they do not intend to just tread water.
2. Every year you'll see this. Teams with no reasonable shots (us last year for instance) aren't going to make big splashes. Teams with better odds usually do.
3. There's some truth on the payroll side of things, then again, that's always been true. Small to mid market teams won't be spending like Bos, LA, and NY... they just won't.. and unless the union agrees to a salary cap (fat chance) I don't see it happening.

[Doomtints]

If my last name were Pohlad, my directive to the front office would be to budget to spend enough to be ranked #15 -- the middle -- in team spending every year.

 

In the years where the Twins were close to a championship (not the playoffs), I would I would authorize more, 10th-12th depending on what made sense.

 

This franchise is a disgrace in years when it spends less than the average. There is no reason for it. The franchise makes more money than it lets on. We know the Pohlads were unhappy with the inheritance tax they had to pay on the Twins and wanted to recover it, but those days are long gone. The franchise even managed to convince many fans that spending in the bottom third is the way to win, and that spending more would mean immediate bankruptcy and failure. Poppycock.