Treading Water while the MLB trend points toward disparity

[drjim]

 

If my last name were Pohlad, my directive to the front office would be to budget to spend enough to be ranked #15 -- the middle -- in team spending every year.

 

In the years where the Twins were close to a championship (not the playoffs), I would I would authorize more, 10th-12th depending on what made sense.

 

This franchise is a disgrace in years when it spends less than the average. There is no reason for it. The franchise makes more money than it lets on. We know the Pohlads were unhappy with the inheritance tax they had to pay on the Twins and wanted to recover it, but those days are long gone. The franchise even managed to convince many fans that spending in the bottom third is the way to win, and that spending more would mean immediate bankruptcy and failure. Poppycock.

 

Twins were 23rd in revenue in 2016. There is a very valid reason why they spend less than average.

 

Everything you say might be correct about making money, but that is true for all teams, and by that reasoning all teams would then bump up their payroll too. Not saying this is a bad thing (if you are a player), but it wouldn't solve the issue of where they are in payroll.

[laloesch]

 

Twins were 23rd in revenue in 2016. There is a very valid reason why they spend less than average.

 

Everything you say might be correct about making money, but that is true for all teams, and by that reasoning all teams would then bump up their payroll too. Not saying this is a bad thing (if you are a player), but it wouldn't solve the issue of where they are in payroll.

 

yet they were 16th in 2012 but 4 or 5 years of losing negatively impacts revenue and a team like the Twins can slide from middle of the pack to the lower end of the middle of the pack. 

 

So the Pohlads do have incentive to TRY and put a winning team on the field.

[drjim]

 

yet they were 16th in 2012 but 4 or 5 years of losing negatively impacts revenue and a team like the Twins can slide from middle of the pack to the lower end of the middle of the pack. 

 

So the Pohlads do have incentive to TRY and put a winning team on the field.

 

In 2012, they were 16th in revenue, but also 13th in payroll!

 

I agree they have incentive to try and win, and winning would lead to more revenue, but that is much more on the front office than ownership. It's not so simple to just spend and try to win (and it seems they were spending relative to their revenue anyways). But in the bigger picture, the Twins were clearly entering a rebuild after 2012 and I would argue they ended up spending too much money on multiple years for mediocrity instead of being more targeted on guys they could flip for prospects. Now that they are good again, they have less prospect inventory AND they are locked into bad contracts that were justified in trying to spend more.

 

This is why I personally push back on the "Pohlad's are cheap" narrative so hard. First, it isn't really backed up by any evidence, and brings down the overall quality of conversation on the site (and elsewhere). But second, and much more importantly, it really lets the front office off the hook for their incompetence.

 

I personally don't care either way if the Pohlads own the team, but it is really a big mistake to assume a different owner would come in and spend more. That type of ownership behavior is not seen in the vast majority of other markets - I think Detroit is the only exception, and that was relatively temporary and is about to go hard the other direction.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

My take on the original points:

 

• The offseason isn't over yet... not quite ready to say the Twins are treading water. They may be, but given that they are being linked to Darvish, I think there's evidence that they do not intend to just tread water.
• Every year you'll see this. Teams with no reasonable shots (us last year for instance) aren't going to make big splashes. Teams with better odds usually do.
• There's some truth on the payroll side of things, then again, that's always been true. Small to mid market teams won't be spending like Bos, LA, and NY... they just won't.. and unless the union agrees to a salary cap (fat chance) I don't see it happening.

does signing Darvish move the perception needle from middle of the pack to legit WS or Pennant contender? If no, what else needs to happen this offseason?

 

If yes, what happened to the narative relative to the division and league?

 

I don’t think Darvish alone changes the narrative for 2018, but certainly makes them more competitive.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

does signing Darvish move the perception needle from middle of the pack to legit WS or Pennant contender? If no, what else needs to happen this offseason?

If yes, what happened to the narative relative to the division and league?

I don’t think Darvish alone changes the narrative for 2018, but certainly makes them more competitive.

 

It definitely moves the needle. Personally, I'd want one more on the RP side too. I like the Pineda deal, though that's more a 2019 move. With Darvish you have 3 solid options in the front of the rotation in Erv, Berrios, and Yu. The back gets a bit murkier, but with the depth they have, I'm not as concerned. I think pen help is more of a must. I'd like one more solid option for Molitor to rely on so he doesn't overuse guys like Duffey, Rogers, and Hildenberger.

[mikelink45]

This reminds me of the 1950s when the Yankees could be expected to win every year (and it kept going into the 1960s,   http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/nyy/history/championships.jsp

 

It was the era of the "Damn Yankees".  Now we add a few more big market teams but we are losing the feeling of parity that was supposed to be the hallmark of the 21st century.

 

In the old days the Yankees did not have a Red Sox team to challenge them and they always had a stud pitcher - Whitey Ford - and a dynamic duo - Mantle and Berra, Mantle and Maris... Now they have Severino and Judge and Stanton.  and like the Yankees of old, lots of really good players who fill out the roster and play with pride.  And the dynasty Yankees had a Marlins equivalent too - the Kansas City Athletics who were always good for sending a Bob Cerv or Roger Maris to the Yankees.  Everyone talked about them as the highest level in the Yankees farm system.  Dan LeBetard in his tirade called the Marlins a minor league team - history repeats.

 

There was an argument in those days that maybe it was good to have the Yankees be so good.  It gave everyone either a hero or a villain and an excuse for failure too. 

 

In those days Marvin Miller was moving around and stirring up the dust to create a better market place for players and for a more competitive field.  Today it is Boras that draws the crowds and he does not really care about anything but maxing out his players money.  

 

Teams have gotten smart about luxury taxes - the Twins would not have made it in the contraction years without those bonus dollars for doing nothing. 

 

There are many big changes from complete games to multiple relievers and stolen bases to home runs.  The draft gives teams like the Twins a shot at a Buxton and Sano, at least for their first six years in the majors, but free agency nullifies the effectiveness of the draft as an overall equalizer.

 

The biggest change is the idea of tanking - without draft choices you would not do that.  Selling off your players for minor leaguers who will build your future team worked for the Astros, but that was because they were the only one doing it.  If you have half the league like it looks this year those prize prospects get spread out and there is no climbing back out of the hole that is dug. 

 

​We are past moneyball because the rest of the teams learned.  I am afraid we are quickly moving past the era of effective tanking too.  What is next?  Another Yankee dynasty?  

[twins_89]

I saw an article by LaVelle that said it could be weeks or up to a month before Darvish decides. So far, Darvish has been holding up most of the starting pitcher market, but If it takes that long I'm beginning to wonder if the other upper end free agents (Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb) will find deals before then. I can already see the scenario playing out where the Twins are waiting for Darvish while the rest of the free agent pitching options disappear, only to be the runner up in the Darvish sweepstakes.