Polanco, and the eager promotion of prospects.

[PseudoSABR]

God, I wish the Twins hadn't wasted (one, two?) option year(s).  He looks over-matched, just lost at the plate.  And his defense doesn't make up for bat (though he's a serviceable SS). That OPS is south of .600.   

 

Not to stir the pot too much, but this is the risk teams take when promoting prospects aggressively.  Polanco could use a reset in AAA, but those options are now gone, even though he's still relatively young, and perfectly in-line with AAA aged competition.  

 

I worry he'll be a casualty of roster crunch at some point this season or next, and then find his way with another team.

 

With Escobar and Andrianza on the roster, and Garver and Vargas in AAA, the team is at detriment, aside of from the numerous pitchers (which isn't attributable to one player).   

 

What should the Twins do to create more roster flexibility? Trade Escobar? Roll with fewer pitchers and put Gimenez in the bullpen? Risk Polanco on waivers (feels inevitable to me, if not this season the next)?

[Danchat]

Someone will probably back me up on this, but I'm pretty sure in 2014 Polanco had an automatic option year, where he would use up an option even if he wasn't called up. I don't think that was the correct term, but it was something like that. A similar thing happened to Danny Santana (his options were up in his 3rd season) and I believe Kepler too in 2015 (he was called up to play the final few games though).

 

I would demote Pressly and promote Garver. We need 4 men on the bench, especially for the Padres series (though it's only 2 games).

[Seth Stohs]

 

God, I wish the Twins hadn't wasted (one, two?) option year(s).  He looks over-matched, just lost at the plate.  And his defense doesn't make up for bat (though he's a serviceable SS). That OPS is south of .600.   

 

Not to stir the pot too much, but this is the risk teams take when promoting prospects aggressively.  Polanco could use a reset in AAA, but those options are now gone, even though he's still relatively young, and perfectly in-line with AAA aged competition.  

 

I worry he'll be a casualty of roster crunch at some point this season or next, and then find his way with another team.

 

Yeah, it seems like this has been answered a lot, but the Twins had to add Polanco to the 40 man roster in November 2013 because he would have likely been lost in the Rule 5 draft that year. His option for 2014 was used when he went from MLB spring training to minor league camp. Same thing in 2015. So, they didn't lose anything by calling him up for those stints in 2014 or 2015. 

 

The Twins front office will NOT DFA Polanco... he's young, 24, has shown the ability to hit for average, take quality plate appearances and even show a little power. I'm sure they'll look beyond a two-month slump. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Someone will probably back me up on this, but I'm pretty sure in 2014 Polanco had an automatic option year, where he would use up an option even if he wasn't called up. I don't think that was the correct term, but it was something like that. A similar thing happened to Danny Santana (his options were up in his 3rd season) and I believe Kepler too in 2015 (he was called up to play the final few games though).

 

I would demote Pressly and promote Garver. We need 4 men on the bench, especially for the Padres series (though it's only 2 games).

 

Kepler was added to the 40 man roster at the same time as Polanco. Both spent 2013 in Cedar Rapids and had to be added after the season because they signed in July 2009. Those are the rules, so they were both out of options this year, having used options in 2014, 2015 and 2016. 

[HitInAPinch]

The only reason Polanco is playing SS, is because Brian Dozier is the starting second baseman.  Playing at a position that you're not particularly good at would weigh heavily on anyone's mind.  

 

If the Twins what you suggested and release Polanco, 2 outcomes are fairly projectable:

 

1. Polanco will be quickly picked up by a team with need for at 2nd
2. Polanco will be relaxed again, start hitting again and become an overall asset at 2nd
3. There will be many a session of hand-wringing and tearing of garments by TD'ers over the lose of Polanco.

 

 

[beckmt]

 

 

The only reason Polanco is playing SS, is because Brian Dozier is the starting second baseman.  Playing at a position that you're not particularly good at would weigh heavily on anyone's mind.  

 

If the Twins what you suggested and release Polanco, 2 outcomes are fairly projectable:

 

1. Polanco will be quickly picked up by a team with need for at 2nd
2. Polanco will be relaxed again, start hitting again and become an overall asset at 2nd
3. There will be many a session of hand-wringing and tearing of garments by TD'ers over the lose of Polanco.

 

Problem is here and what do you do to solve it.  This sounds like a trade Dozier for what you can get(not much) because Gordon will be here next year and room will be needed.  Escobar will not bring back more than a lottery ticket.  He is slightly better than your average utility player.  And he has proven not to be able to play for long stretches without his bat going south.  

Maybe you have to bundle Polonco with a pitcher and send them both for a better return.  Twins may need to make some good quantity for quality trades and those are hard to make.

[beckmt]

Question for Seth.  Where do you see Polanco playing for the Twins next year?  Expect Gordon will be the SS, so how do you unblock the logjam? Assuming the Twins do not give Dozier away in the offseason. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Where does all this "expect Gorden at short next year" stuff cone from? That's very far from a foregone conclusion.

And I really wish people here would stop ragging on Polanco. He's had a bad slump for a couple months because baseball is hard and it's an arms race between pitchers figuring you out and you learning new ways to success. This kid can play.

[USAFChief]

Polanco is vastly overrated around here. His last (and only) really good minor league season was in Elizabethton. Decent in low A, pedestrian after that.

[AZTwin]

Can the twins option him once the trade deadline passed? That way if he doesn't clear they can pull him back? If he does then move to AAA?

[huhguy]

Why would you fear him playing for another team?  Anchors aweigh!

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, it seems like this has been answered a lot, but the Twins had to add Polanco to the 40 man roster in November 2013 because he would have likely been lost in the Rule 5 draft that year. His option for 2014 was used when he went from MLB spring training to minor league camp. Same thing in 2015. So, they didn't lose anything by calling him up for those stints in 2014 or 2015.

 

The Twins front office will NOT DFA Polanco... he's young, 24, has shown the ability to hit for average, take quality plate appearances and even show a little power. I'm sure they'll look beyond a two-month slump.

That is true, buy only because the Twins screwed up by adding him to rookie ball a few days too early.

He should still have an option left if not for that error.

[Mr. Brooks]

Can the twins option him once the trade deadline passed? That way if he doesn't clear they can pull him back? If he does then move to AAA?

Nope. Those revocable trade waivers are not the same kind of waivers that allow you to send a player to the minors.

[drjim]

Polanco is vastly overrated around here. His last (and only) really good minor league season was in Elizabethton. Decent in low A, pedestrian after that.

Depends on how people rate him. He had a perfectly good season (with the bat) last year in the bigs. He's not going to be an all star, but he has performed enough to expect league average production. Should probably be at 2B.

[drjim]

That is true, buy only because the Twins screwed up by adding him to rookie ball a few days too early.

He should still have an option left if not for that error.

That was an unforced, unnecessary blunder.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Question for Seth.  Where do you see Polanco playing for the Twins next year?  Expect Gordon will be the SS, so how do you unblock the logjam? Assuming the Twins do not give Dozier away in the offseason. 

 

I think Polanco starts the season at shortstop, unless they trade Dozier (maybe a 50/50 thing and they should not just give him away). Gordon will be up at some point in 2018, not necessarily on Opening Day. These things tend to figure themselves out. 

[mikelink45]

I am not ready to give up on Polanco - His scouting reports - by Seth and others have been too good for us to end up here.  There is an adjustment to be made, but how do we do it without having a AAA option?  Put him on the 10 day DL and work with his head?  Send him to Winter Ball...are MLB players eligible for the fall league?  

 

I seriously doubt that Dozier gets traded.  His batting this year drops him into the middle to lower level of 2B.  Not much to get for that level. And who can say that Gordon will not follow the same pattern once he crosses to the MLB diamond?

 

I suspect that the Adrianza move put a lot of mental pressure on Polanco and he has not been able to handle it.

[Guest]

Where does all this "expect Gorden at short next year" stuff cone from? That's very far from a foregone conclusion.

And I really wish people here would stop ragging on Polanco. He's had a bad slump for a couple months because baseball is hard and it's an arms race between pitchers figuring you out and you learning new ways to success. This kid can play.

I believe he's also had some family stuff this year.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd argue you could have less RPs on the 25 man roster.....I mean, you can send them back and forth to AAA if they get in danger of over use. That seems kind of obvious to me.

 

OTOH, I'm not ready to give up on Polanco yet, but Chief is right, he hasn't been AWESOME much, has he?

[Shaitan]

As there's another thread debating the loss of Haley, I find it interesting to contemplate giving Polanco a year of Rule 5 MLB time in 2014.

 

He's in a sophomore slump. These things happen. Be thankful the Twins have depth at the position while he works things out.

[gunnarthor]

 

Polanco is vastly overrated around here. His last (and only) really good minor league season was in Elizabethton. Decent in low A, pedestrian after that.

Meh. He made both BA and mlb's top 100 lists after he left Elizabethton. I think Klaw had him ranked for numerous years.

[USAFChief]

 

Meh. He made both BA and mlb's top 100 lists after he left Elizabethton. I think Klaw had him ranked for numerous years.

Right.  After Elizabethton.

 

That's the last time he hit like a legit prospect.  Decent in Low A, but nothing special.  Then pretty "meh" at AA/AAA.  .700-something OPS's.

 

Guys who put up .700-something OPS's in AA/AAA don't often turn into hitters worth worrying about.  

[SF Twins Fan]

I'm really surprised Polanco hasn't come down with some sort of an injury just so the Twins could sit him down for a week and then send him to minors for a few games to try and get some confidence back.

[gunnarthor]

 

Right.  After Elizabethton.

 

That's the last time he hit like a legit prospect.  Decent in Low A, but nothing special.  Then pretty "meh" at AA/AAA.  .700-something OPS's.

 

Guys who put up .700-something OPS's in AA/AAA don't often turn into hitters worth worrying about.  

No, he made those lists after he hit AA as a 21 year old. That was years after he left Elizabethton.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=polanc001jor

[Otto von Ballpark]

Right. After Elizabethton.

 

That's the last time he hit like a legit prospect. Decent in Low A, but nothing special. Then pretty "meh" at AA/AAA. .700-something OPS's.

 

Guys who put up .700-something OPS's in AA/AAA don't often turn into hitters worth worrying about.

I think this is selling Polanco short. Here are his full season wRC+ figures after rookie ball:

 

A: 127

A+: 124

AA: 111

AAA: 125

MLB: 101

 

Not quite his 146 at Elizabethton, but pretty darn solid for a middle infielder age 19-22. I was further encouraged by his reasonably low K rates those seasons -- this wasn't just a guy occasionally connecting off minor league junk who would be easily exposed, he seemed to be a professional hitter.

 

Not sure what has happened this season, though. The modest power has disappeared, and he has gone from a .328 BABIP to a .239 BABIP, among the worst in the league. And I wouldn't be surprised if he is carrying some of that frustration into the field.

[kab21]

I sure would feel silly if I had insisted that 'he is better than Dozier right now'.

No doubt the Twins stick with Polanco. The question will be whether or not he is a starter or not. Make him earn his starting spot back if he is being outplayed.

 

It should be noted but Nick Gordon has cooled off considerably and he still has a fairly high K rate for a non power hitter. I didn't say Gordon doesn't have power but he isn't a slugger and a 22% K rate is pretty high.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I sure would feel silly if I had insisted that 'he is better than Dozier right now'.

No doubt the Twins stick with Polanco. The question will be whether or not he is a starter or not. Make him earn his starting spot back if he is being outplayed.

 

It should be noted but Nick Gordon has cooled off considerably and he still has a fairly high K rate for a non power hitter. I didn't say Gordon doesn't have power but he isn't a slugger and a 22% K rate is pretty high.

 

10th in slugging in the league.

16th in OBP

from a SS

 

I don't understand what people want from a 21 year old in AA, to think he has a shot to be good. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

10th in slugging in the league.

16th in OBP

from a SS

 

I don't understand what people want from a 21 year old in AA, to think he has a shot to be good.

Gordon is having a solid season, but remember those ranks are in a 10 team league. And only among PA qualifiers, which eliminates guys like Acuna who have had midseason promotions. (It's also apparently the league that Gonsalves can dominate but still get crushed if he was promoted )

 

There are definitely some cautionary parallels between Gordon and Polanco right now, although perhaps nothing actionable.

[ahart10]

Maybe Molitor could sit Dozier a few days and see if Polanco feels more comfortable at 2nd. Improve the infield defense with Adrianza. Show Jorge they're willing to work with him and Brian's spot isn't untouchable.

[ashbury]

Decent in low A,

... where he was the youngest hitter not named Byron.

 

An .813 OPS is better than decent, in that context. And his body of work the seasons after that look like steady progression by a young player.