Article: Surprises Mark Twins Opening Day Roster

[gunnarthor]

 

Let's recall, just 20 or 30 days ago, they DFA'd Park. In some ways, not letting ST change their mind is good...

 

As for not getting younger, Berrios and Chargois and Murphy are off the roster, two of whom were replaced by older players that won't be here in 2 years, maybe 1, maybe only a few months.

 

Here is who they added:
Castro, Gimenez, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Mejia.

 

I don't think Gimenez, Belisle, and Breslow will be on the next good team this team fields. They aren't exactly young. Castro might be, but he's not spring chicken (to be clear, I like the signing, but he will be a backup in 2 years probably).

 

Haley is the annual rule V pick that can't be cut no matter how bad he is, even if there are guys in the minors about as good. We can hope that this time it turns out.

 

Mejia is the one young guy they really added, but his upside is number 4 starter, more likely he is a nice innings eater and a 4/5. 

 

So, where is the upside? Where are the risks? Where did they get younger? 

 

The fact that they are young has nothing to do with this FO, they inherited a young team. Where did this FO take a risk on a young player with upside?

Sure, I think Chargois and Berrios have much better upside than others.  Murphy?  He's looked pretty bad for over a year now.  A plus defender as a back-up makes more sense until Garver is ready.  But Berrios isn't ready today.  I would have put Chargois on the ML roster but I also didn't see him in ST.  His numbers are pretty bad so maybe there is something to work on.  

 

But the reality is that the team is pretty young - especially the hitters - and they just need reps.  Pitching side is worse off.  I agree that many of these guys are stopgaps until Chargois, Burdi Duffey, Jay etc establish themselves in the pen.  I hope that starts to happen this year since I fully thought it would happen last year.  But the rotation is what it is.  Behind those five we have Berrios (who didn't pitch much), Duffey/Haley (both in the pen) and some AAA vets.  Could be a lot of 8-6 ball games this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If a better roster will be available on April 15th....why the hell are we waiting two weeks exactly?

DL for Adrianza over Santana.  Health/stretching out for Santiago.  Those are time-related issues that could be resolved by April 15th (although likely later for Adrianza, assuming rehab).

 

If they are really most worried about Hughes in the rotation, I might have just swapped him to the pen.  Let him be a caddy for a younger guy rather than the other way around.

 

Not quite sure on Park, I really dislike locking in Grossman and Mauer as everyday players, but at the same time, I am curious if Park can even learn to mash AAA (he didn't last year).  Maybe it's not bad to give him a month to try that again?

[drjim]

 

I don't know if a 103 loss team, with so few changes/additions, can truly have a roster crunch.

 

Yes. Roster crunch excuse is pathetic. Get an eraser, we can make some space.

[drjim]

 

Gimenez over JRM, to me it makes zero sense. Can anyone defend this with a straight face?

 

I can say with a straight face I don't care either way. Neither adds more than the other.

[Tibs]

Who else needs a torch and pitchfork?

[drjim]

 

DL for Adrianza over Santana.  Health/stretching out for Santiago.  Those are time-related issues that could be resolved by April 15th (although likely later for Adrianza, assuming rehab).

 

If they are really most worried about Hughes in the rotation, I might have just swapped him to the pen.  Let him be a caddy for a younger guy rather than the other way around.

 

Not quite sure on Park, I really dislike locking in Grossman and Mauer as everyday players, but at the same time, I am curious if Park can even learn to mash AAA (he didn't last year).  Maybe it's not bad to give him a month to try that again?

 

I support giving Hughes a handful of starts to see if he has anything before they move him to the pen. That's the type of move, along with a stretched out Santiago that can change the makeup of the roster pretty quickly.

 

Heck, Chargois might take off too.

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes. Roster crunch excuse is pathetic. Get an eraser, we can make some space.

People wanted Santiago cut all offseason because May was a better option.  He's gone.  So we can get rid of people (and I think Santana is a pretty good place to start) but I think fans tend to forget about how important depth is - esp starting pitching depth.  

 

And this place blew up when the Twins did make some moves - like removing Park from the 40 man or letting Jake Reed get taken in the rule v or the all-time Joe Benson thread.  

[TheLeviathan]

The Adrianza thing I can accept, but I'm not convinced his spot actually went to Santana.  I think Santana was the 24th man.  The 25th was Duffy over Adrianza.

 

Just my gut feeling.

Edited March 30, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[SirLoin]

Falvey came from Cleveland, right?  Are we sure there isn't a clause where if Target Field attendance dips below a certain level, they can relocate the team to Miami?

 

 

[DaveW]

If a better roster will be available on April 15th....why the hell are we waiting two weeks exactly?

 

I keep getting stuck on that argument. That makes zero sense to me.

 

August 15th...ok, I get that. April? WTF?

[d-mac]

 

Now I'm speculating on how many homers Park had to have hit this ST to have been considered for the opening day roster?

 

1,642

[biscuit]

Ah.  So Robbie Grossman can continue to spike himself in the outfield and take called 3rd strikes at the plate.  Anyone think the new braintrust is trying to hogtie Paul Molitor?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Falvey came from Cleveland, right?  Are we sure there isn't a clause where if Target Field attendance dips below a certain level, they can relocate the team to Miami?

I sense a new remix opportunity!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbMk1qffPNM

[drivlikejehu]

My only thought is that they are waiting for Vargas to get healthy, and that the 25th man was a placeholder regardless of position. Having Park up but sending him right back down would arguably be pointless. So this appears to be some kind of extended bullpen tryout.

 

I'm more OK with the 13 pitchers, bizarre as it is, than I am with the roster more generally.

[drjim]

People wanted Santiago cut all offseason because May was a better option. He's gone. So we can get rid of people (and I think Santana is a pretty good place to start) but I think fans tend to forget about how important depth is - esp starting pitching depth.

 

And this place blew up when the Twins did make some moves - like removing Park from the 40 man or letting Jake Reed get taken in the rule v or the all-time Joe Benson thread.

I personality think they are doing right with the rotation for the reasons you mentioned. Do think they could have done better in the pen and on the bench with FAs.

[spinowner]

 

I just don't want to be out of the race after 9 games like last year.  

Interesting that so much analytics goes into this game in terms of the different stats  and metrics such that on most sites there is at least one additional tab and sometimes more for advanced metrics.    So much made of left/right pitching match ups and just recently there was a post with a lot of input about the preferred batting order.    There are a ton of posts about who should be in the pitching rotation but in this day of trying to get statistical edges there is very little consideration of the order of the rotation.    We have now had 6 years of being at a disadvantage at every spot in the rotation using traditional orders to start the season.   I know the variety of reasons that within a couple weeks team's rotations won't match up but wouldn't it make sense to start the season differently?   Rather than have a disadvantage in every spot in the rotation wouldn't it make sense to arrange it so there are a few spots where we have the advantage?     Wouldn't it make more sense for Hughes or Mejia facing Verlander the 2nd time through the rotation and have Santana facing a Pelfrey type pitcher?    Not that Hughes or Mejia facing Verlander is a gimme but the odds say Verlander is going to win regardless.  Wouldn't it make more sense to flip our rotation around?    Seems like it might be an advantage of a couple wins throughout the season.   A couple wins isn't a huge difference but we sure talk a lot more about stuff that maybe has less impact.  

It's difficult to predict pitching match-ups more than a week ahead of time due to off days, injuries, etc. I think it's prudent to set your rotation going generally from most-reliable to least-reliable, also trying to avoid putting similar pitchers back-to-back.

[BoofBonser]

Falvey and Levine are probably laughing at all of these comments because their true plan is probably to lose as many games as possible and build the farm some more. 

[prouster]

 

Gimenez over JRM, to me it makes zero sense. Can anyone defend this with a straight face?

 

Well, there are his 2016 stats.

 

In 83 Games at Triple-A:

 

.236/.286/.323/.609

 

 

In 26 MLB Games:

 

.146/.193/.220/.413

 

 

Small samples and recency bias for each, yes. But holy cow.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Falvey and Levine are probably laughing at all of these comments because their true plan is probably to lose as many games as possible and build the farm some more. 

 

if that was their plan, they would have traded Dozier, no? They would have traded ESan, no?

 

I don't see evidence of a tear down and rebuild at all.

[d-mac]

 

Yes, perhaps going cheap and hiring the more inexperienced candidate to run the FO wasn't such a genius move to begin with.

 

Jason McLeod was my guy. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Well, it looks like the new regime has preserved the "All hail Joe Mauer" mantra. After another do-nothing spring it looks like old Joe will be playing first base everyday. I gotta imagine the nostalgia will continue with him being automatically penciled into the 3-slot in the lineup every game. Who knows where a team goes that has its leadoff man out-homer the #3 hitter by 35 bombs?

 

What the hell is spring for if a guy like Park puts the numbers up he did and can't even make the squad? 

[zenser]

How often will Murphy play in AAA?  Park and Vargas are there along with Garver.  Any chance he is taken off the 40 man?

[tobi0040]

Completely agree Mike. If this was the team and this was the approach, Dozier and Ervin have no reason to be on this team. Zero.

 

Put me in the camp of hoping that a new FO would at least have a plan. I don't see a plan. The only positive thing they did was sign Castro who may help break some young pitchers in. But at this rate he won't be on the next good team.

 

Heck, we actually got older by swapping Meyer for Santiago, who also won't be on the next good team.

[drjim]

 

Jason McLeod was my guy. 

 

Mine too. But I doubt it would have made much of a difference at this point.

 

I would have like an extra FA or two, maybe culling some of the edges of the 40 man, but it wasn't a great roster (obviously), and much of the value is locked into young guys that a rebuilding team wouldn't want to move rather than vets than can be flipped for prospects.

[nicksaviking]

Hmmm, hope Molitor doesn't need a pinch hitter anytime soon.

[DaveW]

Mine too. But I doubt it would have made much of a difference at this point.

 

I would have like an extra FA or two, maybe culling some of the edges of the 40 man, but it wasn't a great roster (obviously), and much of the value is locked into young guys that a rebuilding team wouldn't want to move rather than vets than can be flipped for prospects.

Who knows: maybe McCleod would have pulled the trigger on the Dozier trade, and maybe he would have been able to move a couple more guys.

 

One thing is certain; it would be damn hard of him to do much worse then what this new FO has done so far.

[Dantes929]

 

If a better roster will be available on April 15th....why the hell are we waiting two weeks exactly?

 

I keep getting stuck on that argument.  That makes zero sense to me.

 

August 15th...ok, I get that.  April?  WTF?

I would even get May 15th.    I kind of get the logic of leaving a guy with upside in the minors to start the season if you think there is a strong likelihood of struggling early.     If you think the odds are good that   one of Mejia and Hughes will be successful but are not sure which one then it makes sense to start them both to find out which is which.    If both pitch well, then great.   If both fail then you replace with upside.   You don't want the guy with upside that you think will struggle early paired with the wrong guess on Mejia or Hughes.   If you think guy with upside is likely to be very good from the start and only one of Mejia or Hughes is likely to be good, but not sure which, then it would be absolutely wrong to start both Mejia and Hughes with upside starting in  the minors.   This would all be easier to demonstrate with flow charts and probably by identifying minor league guy with upside as Berrios but either way April 15th is way too early to make assessments on performance and August 15th would be way too late.

[MN_ExPat]

 

I assume there is some hyper, next-level thought process here that none of us are privvy to yet. The notion that Mauer will begin to play a bit less this season takes a nose dive when you realize both of his back-ups are now in Rochester. 

Don't forget about Gimenez... he has played 1B (and some 3rd?) as well.

[Dantes929]

 

It's difficult to predict pitching match-ups more than a week ahead of time due to off days, injuries, etc. I think it's prudent to set your rotation going generally from most-reliable to least-reliable, also trying to avoid putting similar pitchers back-to-back.

I know I was very wordy but I acknowledged in the middle that it won't take long for match ups to become more random.   Odds are not certainty but if we treat as such then going by traditional prudent set up of the rotation we will start the season 0-5 but if we flip the rotation we maybe go 2-3.    

[nicksaviking]

 

Don't forget about Gimenez... he has played 1B (and some 3rd?) as well.

 

His career .632 OPS is slightly below corner infield expectations.