Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[Mike Sixel]

 

The reason NL pitchers "struggle" in the AL is because in the NL they get pulled earlier. NL pitchers do not have to pace themselves as much.

 

Were you expecting Vogelsong, or any #5 pitcher, to be pitching into the 6th-8th innings?

 

Can't. Tell. If. Serious.

[jud6312]

 

The reason NL pitchers "struggle" in the AL is because in the NL they get pulled earlier. NL pitchers do not have to pace themselves as much.

 

Were you expecting Vogelsong, or any #5 pitcher, to be pitching into the 6th-8th innings?

So we're totally skipping the part where I mentioned he struggled mightily in recent years in the NL?

 

Good/decent/average pitchers come to the AL and get taken down a notch, so what do we think will happen to Vogelsong? Unless we're assuming he's at the absolute floor of his ability and it couldn't possibly get any worse.

 

Even if he put up the numbers he did in Pittsburgh last year, (which I think is a HUGE reach) I wouldn't want him on this team over virtually anyone in the organization.

 

There's virtually zero upside to trotting a 39/40-year-old pitcher out to the mound on a rebuilding team.

[jud6312]

 

Can't. Tell. If. Serious.

Jeez, how many accounts does the Vogelsong family have on this forum?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The reason NL pitchers "struggle" in the AL is because in the NL they get pulled earlier. NL pitchers do not have to pace themselves as much.

 

Were you expecting Vogelsong, or any #5 pitcher, to be pitching into the 6th-8th innings?

The difference is minimal, not enough to matter.

 

The median AL team threw 919 IP as starters last season, the median NL team threw 895 IP as starters last season.

 

The previous season, it was 941 IP in the AL, 943 IP in the NL.

 

In 2014, it was 957 IP in the AL, 976 IP in the NL.

 

The reason why NL starters have lower ERAs is Occam's Razor. Instead of facing an .800 OPS masher 2-3 times a game, they face a .500 OPS bunter.

[Doomtints]

 

The difference is minimal, not enough to matter.

 

The median AL team threw 919 IP as starters last season, the median NL team threw 895 IP as starters last season.

 

The previous season, it was 941 IP in the AL, 943 IP in the NL.

 

In 2014, it was 957 IP in the AL, 976 IP in the NL.

 

The reason why NL starters have lower ERAs is Occam's Razor. Instead of facing an .800 OPS masher 2-3 times a game, they face a .500 OPS bunter.

 

The DH difference in most years is about a third of a run per game. This is not enough to support the idea of NL pitchers "struggling" in the AL. This also has the fatal logic flaw of not considering that AL pitchers face the DH all the time. The question is why are NL pitchers worse than AL pitchers when they move to the AL? Nothing you wrote supports that, all you are doing is explaining DH.

The truth of it is that NL pitchers, particularly bottom-of-the-order ones, are not in the habit of pacing themselves to be able to face batters late in games. They get pulled earlier than their AL counterparts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The DH difference in most years is about a third of a run per game. This is not enough to support the idea of NL pitchers "struggling" in the AL. This also has the fatal logic flaw of not considering that AL pitchers face the DH all the time. The question is why are NL pitchers worse than AL pitchers when they move to the AL? Nothing you wrote supports that, all you are doing is explaining DH.

The truth of it is that NL pitchers, particularly bottom-of-the-order ones, are not in the habit of pacing themselves to be able to face batters late in games. They get pulled earlier than their AL counterparts.

Except I just showed that NL starters don't throw fewer innings than their AL counterparts so they're not being pulled more quickly than the equivalent AL starter.

 

And 1/3rd of a run per game sounds about right to me, as from my readings over the years, NL starters can expect a .25-.5 increase in ERA if they transition to the AL.

[Doomtints]

 

Except I just showed that NL starters don't throw fewer innings than their AL counterparts so they're not being pulled more quickly than the equivalent AL starter.

 

But should you do the median innings pitched, or should you do innings pitched for #3-#5 starters? Aces are aces in either league.

[Dr. Evil]

Look at it this way. Our pitching sucks. It has sucked for quite a while. Vogelsong will probably suck too. He is a dumpster dive pitcher. We have had lots of them. I don't get the point of having him around.

 

It feels good to get that off my chest! I was mad as hell there for a minute.

[Jacksson]

Before the season begins there will be out of options players from other organizations who will have to be designated for assignment.  Although they performed well, the construction of their team's 25 man roster just could not include them.  The Twins just need to position themselves to have identified the players in other organizations who are likely to fall into that category YET would have value to the Twins.  There may well be a: fifth starter, bullpen arm, back-up catcher, utility infielder, fourth outfielder there for the taking if the Twins have an open 40 man roster spot.  MLB Trade Rumors recently published a list that can be accessed on their site by searching for "out of option players 2017".

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But should you do the median innings pitched, or should you do innings pitched for #3-#5 starters? Aces are aces in either league.

If you can dig up the data to figure that out, I'd love to see it... But if there was a marked difference in innings pitched, it should show up in some capacity. In a few years, the NL actually had a slight advantage in IP over the AL.

[beckmt]

Let me see, Twins have Mejia, Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, Steward, Romero, Thorpe, Jorge, Ynoa, and more in the pipeline.  Along with this years #1 draft pick, if a college starter will probably start in AA and also be in the pipeline, if Greene he will be 4-5 years out.  That is 8+ pitchers, what gremlins are you afraid up.  This has to be next man up.  If all fail we will be back to square 1, but the would be an indictment of the Twins scouting staff.  (and there pitching coaches). 

Problem here is Molitor and his job status.  He has already won 1 front office showdown, and I do not blame Falvey and Levine to tread lightly, since he has a direct line to Pohlad's ear. 

I believe we should start with Mejia and see who survives the year.  I actually would start with more rookies if you could get proper trade value for Twins starters. 

Change the guard, go back to the McPhail ways of next man up.  End the scholarships and players being here because they are veterans.  Sure the pain will me more this year, but the goal time will be much shorter than this half measures and not making evauations for the long haul.

[Brandon Warne]

 

i liked this, but I feel bad about it. I wish there was an "agree" button.

Truthfully the AAA depth is terrible still. As Brandon pointed out, you can go old to young, but tough to go vice-versa

I'm not happy about it

 

You can go old-> young.

The alternative is young -> tire fire. (Albers, Dean, etc)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There is so much wrong here.....

 

we are talking about 1 SP spot being given to a non-veteran. One. That's all we are asking for. One. With the backup plans to be the other 4 young guys (or a veteran in AAA, not the majors).

we're also talking about the double A rotation as well. Either you sign a guy off the scrap heap or promote pitchers too soon. I wish the FO had been able to acquire high minors depth, but they didn't.

[Mr. Brooks]

we're also talking about the double A rotation as well. Either you sign a guy off the scrap heap or promote pitchers too soon. I wish the FO had been able to acquire high minors depth, but they didn't.

Minor League depth can be found at any time, if all you are looking for is organizational filler.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Minor League depth can be found at any time, if all you are looking for is organizational filler.

but your not looking for org filler. You need at least a guy or two in AA ready to backfill AAA and not very far from the bigs. Behind Gonsalves you've got Romero who isn't that close. If you want Duffey, Berrios, and Mejia on the big league roster Gonsalves is all you got at AAA. Are you ready to put Romero in the big league rotation. Thinning too far guarantees it.

[Mr. Brooks]

but your not looking for org filler. You need at least a guy or two in AA ready to backfill AAA and not very far from the bigs. Behind Gonsalves you've got Romero who isn't that close. If you want Duffey, Berrios, and Mejia on the big league roster Gonsalves is all you got at AAA. Are you ready to put Romero in the big league rotation. Thinning too far guarantees it.

The post of Mike's that you responded to was asking for ONE young pitcher in the rotation. Not all 3 of those guys. You'd still have 2 of those guys ready at AAA, as well as Haley in the long role, ready to be stretched out if needed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The post of Mike's that you responded to was asking for ONE young pitcher in the rotation. Not all 3 of those guys. You'd still have 2 of those guys ready at AAA, as well as Haley in the long role, ready to be stretched out if needed.

From 1998 to 2015 107 teams used 10 starting pitchers. All 3 of those guys are already in the rotation as well as Haley and either Gonsalves or a scrap heap waiver claim depending on if Gonsalves is close to being ready when the "unforeseen" becomes "we should have saw that coming". May doesn't count as he will not throw a big league pitch.

 

Now eliminate Vogelsong or Hughes and roll with Berrios to start the season - significant innings will need to be pitched by 2 scrap heap guys cuz you're not bringing up Gonsalves before July.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/163495284-mlb-teams-need-starting-pitching-depth.amp.html

[Richie the Rally Goat]

But Vogelsong is the definition of a replacement level player. If they went full youth and it blew up in their face it wouldn't be that hard to find him or Deduno / Dean / Pino etc. mid-season and reverse course.

mid season there's much more competition to find Deduno's. As quoted above in 2015 28/30 teams used 9 or more starting pitchers. Few have 4 pitchers on the triple A express, let alone 6 or 7

[Mr. Brooks]

From 1998 to 2015 107 teams used 10 starting pitchers. All 3 of those guys are already in the rotation as well as Haley and either Gonsalves or a scrap heap waiver claim depending on if Gonsalves is close to being ready when the "unforeseen" becomes "we should have saw that coming". May doesn't count as he will not throw a big league pitch.

 

Now eliminate Vogelsong or Hughes and roll with Berrios to start the season - significant innings will need to be pitched by 2 scrap heap guys cuz you're not bringing up Gonsalves before July.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/163495284-mlb-teams-need-starting-pitching-depth.amp.html

Needing 10 SP's in a season is not the same thing as needing 10 guys to pitch "significant innings before July".

You also have Wheeler on the 40 man, he could start a game or two if needed.

Also, Vogelsong is pretty much the definition of a scrap heap guy. So your argument is that we should roll with a scrap heap guy to start the season, because otherwise me might need a start or two from a scrap heap guy later?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Needing 10 SP's in a season is not the same thing as needing 10 guys to pitch "significant innings before July".

You also have Wheeler on the 40 man, he could start a game or two if needed.

Also, Vogelsong is pretty much the definition of a scrap heap guy. So your argument is that we should roll with a scrap heap guy to start the season, because otherwise me might need a start or two from a scrap heap guy later?

the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

 

And the point is the 5 man rotation on opening day means very little.

 

So if Vogelsong is the 5th man on opening day, I get why. Make no mistake, I want Berrios in the big league rotation all season, but realistically I understand why Levine would choose to protect his depth.

 

Thanks for reminding me of Wheeler. I forgot about him. Having another guy on the Rochester shuttle is a good thing. Maybe he makes Vogelsong less likely to be on the opening day roster. That kind of depends on if Vogelsong has an opt out clause.

[Willihammer]

 

mid season there's much more competition to find Deduno's. As quoted above in 2015 28/30 teams used 9 or more starting pitchers. Few have 4 pitchers on the triple A express, let alone 6 or 7

The Twins would have 4 of Duffey, Mejia, Berrios, Pino, and Wheeler in AAA. They'll have Romero and Jorge in AA who are already rostered. They'll have Haley and Rogers on the ML roster, who have starting experience. And if that's not enough they could add another starter when team rosters gets squeezed  in a couple weeks. They'll have first dibs on waiver claims all year.

[ashbury]

the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

It's wishful thinking, I suppose, but I was hoping for a no-devil season this year.

 

"But he turned, and said unto him, Get thee behind me, Vogelsong."

[ashbury]

They'll have first dibs on waiver claims all year.

I think after a few weeks (May 1) the order becomes based on current standings.

 

http://www.purplerow.com/2009/2/19/762532/mlb-transactions-part-thre

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think after a few weeks (May 1) the order becomes based on current standings.

 

http://www.purplerow.com/2009/2/19/762532/mlb-transactions-part-thre

Maybe it was a prediction about their 2017 record?

[stringer bell]

Slegers will be at Rochester, most likely. He's got more upside than Vogelsong, for sure.

[Vanimal46]

Slegers will be at Rochester, most likely. He's got more upside than Vogelsong, for sure.

I don't think you can set the "upside" bar any lower than Vogelsong. Hell, Mike Pelfrey has more upside.

[jorgenswest]

I like the number of starters angle but I wouldn't count pitchers with just a handful of starts. I wondered about the number of starters who started more than 8 games. At that level the difference between replacement level and number 5 starter might be a game.

 

Over the last 5 years (courtesy baseball reference) 

 

5 starters -  18

6 starters -  56

7 starters -  44

8 starters-   22

9 starters-    8

10 starters-  2

 

Of course some of the the extra starters come from sources other than AAA. A July trade will add to the starter count of the acquiring team as well as adding to the count of the trading team.

 

It seems reasonable that most teams should expect two of their AAA starters to have a significant role in the rotation by the end of the season. I think the Twins have the depth to manage that need without rostering Vogelsong.

 

[Willihammer]

 

[laloesch]

Moderator Note:

 

Everyone relax a little. Don't make personally directed posts and don't take things personal.

 

Yes, agreed. Easy to get fired up about something that is frustrating and take opposing comments personally. Thats when you know your passionate about something.

[Mike Sixel]

Just more reliance on old guys. And we are to believe Jay is being fast tracked?