Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[Brandon Warne]

I updated my potential Opening Day roster projection for the Twins here: 

 

http://zonecoverage.com/2017/twins/projecting-the-minnesota-twins-2017-opening-day-roster-take-2/

 

As always, comments and critiques are welcomed!

[Mike Sixel]

Yay, what a youth movement they have!

 

I agree, that's the likely roster. I feel no encouragement this team is moving forward at all.

[Vanimal46]

That rotation.... Such a boring group of names. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

That rotation.... Such a boring group of names. 

 

I don't disagree, but my theory is this: you can go from oldies to the kids. You can't do vice versa. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't disagree, but my theory is this: you can go from oldies to the kids. You can't do vice versa. 

 

Don't disagree with your theory. I've been beaten down enough to accept Berrios + others are starting in AAA... Time will tell if the new regime has a quick hook with struggling veterans. The last thing I want this year is watching Vogelsong/Hughes/Santiago struggle for several starts and the FO gives them the benefit of the doubt. 

[Brandon Warne]

And I mean, to be fair, it's not like Berrios gave them reason last year to give him a free pass into the rotation 

[Mike Sixel]

It's May 1, the Twins have lost all three of Vogelsgang's starts, after he goes 5 innings and gives up 3-4 runs in each.....and Berrios is doing what he did last year in AAA. What do you do?

[alarp33]

 

And I mean, to be fair, it's not like Berrios gave them reason last year to give him a free pass into the rotation 

 

You could replace Berrios with Hughes, Vogelsong or Santiago and the sentence would still be valid

[iTwins]

I had commented a while back on another thread that I wouldn't fret about Berrios starting the year in AAA, because he would likely be back by May (the month, that is). 

 

I should have added that the caveat to this was Trevor May 'taking' his place in the rotation - and Berrios replacing someone (Hector Santiago?) when he was called up. 

 

But, as prognosticated here - Berrios down so Vogelsong can get a spot? Blech. 

 

I don't disagree with any of the projections - I just wish they weren't sure to be so (depressingly) accurate. 

[Thrylos]

Other than Adrianza, this looks about right

[Dr. Evil]

I think you nailed it.

[Brandon Warne]

 

You could replace Berrios with Hughes, Vogelsong or Santiago and the sentence would still be valid

 

A little unusual to use the same qualifier for a player who has played one year as veterans, though

[alarp33]

 

A little unusual to use the same qualifier for a player who has played one year as veterans, though

 

Right, for a rebuilding team I would prefer the younger guy

[Brandon Warne]

 

Right, for a rebuilding team I would prefer the younger guy

 

Until 2016 happens. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Until 2016 happens. 

 

I'd still rather go young. They didn't really go young, did they? It took them nearly all year to call up one RP. And, yup, Berrios sucked. But, he got a taste, and he should be better this year, and in 2018 and beyond when they might compete. 

 

It's almost like people refuse to acknowledge teams and young players struggle in a rebuild. 

[alarp33]

 

Until 2016 happens. 

 

2016 would have been better giving a washed up Ryan Vogelsong innings? 

 

Gotta see what you have in Berrios at some point

[Oldgoat_MN]

I like Adrianza... for a veteran team.

I see no reason for Vogelsong in the starting rotation. Would much rather see a kid getting some MLB experience.

Nothing about this do I find encouraging except that Polanco is on the starting roster.

 

Sadly, I'm not at all sure that you're wrong.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'd still rather go young. They didn't really go young, did they? It took them nearly all year to call up one RP. And, yup, Berrios sucked. But, he got a taste, and he should be better this year, and in 2018 and beyond when they might compete. 

 

It's almost like people refuse to acknowledge teams and young players struggle in a rebuild. 

 

Virtually the entire lineup was young last year. 

[Brandon Warne]

I should be clear -- this is not how I'd _choose_ to structure the 25-man roster. Just how I see it playing out. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Virtually the entire lineup was young last year. 

 

Mauer? Plouffe? Suzuki? Dozier?

 

That's 44% of the lineup. And, they signed a 29 yo DH. So, they planned on 55% of it.

[Brandon Warne]

By weighted age, their offense was the fourth-youngest in baseball and second in the AL. I'd call that fairly young. 

 

The pitching staff was exactly the MLB average.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't disagree, but my theory is this: you can go from oldies to the kids. You can't do vice versa. 

 

You can if you stick the oldies in the pen and summon them back to the rotation when needed like the Dodgers and Cubs do.

[Brandon Warne]

 

You can if you stick the oldies in the pen and summon them back to the rotation when needed like the Dodgers and Cubs do.

 

The pen is where the actual good arms are on this team, though. That's the tough part.

[alarp33]

 

By weighted age, their offense was the fourth-youngest in baseball and second in the AL. I'd call that fairly young. 

 

The pitching staff was exactly the MLB average.

 

How about Median age?   The mean age does not prove your point that "virtually the entire offense was young".  Like Mike said, lots of at bats went to older guys.  4 of the top 7 in At Bats were 29 or older (Dozier, Mauer, Nunez, Suzuki)

 

The average simply says that yes, Buxton and Sano are very young

[Mike Sixel]

 

By weighted age, their offense was the fourth-youngest in baseball and second in the AL. I'd call that fairly young. 

 

The pitching staff was exactly the MLB average.

 

I've been trying to find that listing for all the teams online, where can I find it?

 

thanks!

[Tom Froemming]

 

I should be clear -- this is not how I'd _choose_ to structure the 25-man roster. Just how I see it playing out. 

 

... and you still think they'll win 80? Or does that prediction go down a bit with the May injury/anything else that's transpired since?

[nicksaviking]

 

The pen is where the actual good arms are on this team, though. That's the tough part.

 

These guys?

 

RP1- Ryan Vogelsong Justin Haley
•RP2- Michael Tonkin Craig Breslow
•RP3- Matt Belisle
•RP4- Buddy Boshers Tyler Duffey
•RP5- Taylor Rogers
•RP6- Ryan Pressly
•RP7- Brandon Kintzler

 

I'll keep Pressly and Rogers, no one else would stop me from putting the vets in the pen and rolling with Berrios and Mejia in the rotation.

 

Wow, this team just looks so bad. Not that I'm disagreeing with your predictions. If they're going to lose, at least let me watch the young guys. April is going to be almost unwatchable waiting for the young guys to get another shot.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

How about Median age?   The mean age does not prove your point that "virtually the entire offense was young".  Like Mike said, lots of at bats went to older guys.  4 of the top 7 in At Bats were 29 or older (Dozier, Mauer, Nunez, Suzuki)

 

The average simply says that yes, Buxton and Sano are very young

 

I think weighted average takes ABs into account.....which is key. 

[alarp33]

 

I think weighted average takes ABs into account.....which is key. 

 

Right.  But an average is brought down by players like Buxton and Sano who are only 22 or whatever.  That doesn't tell you "the lineup was very young overall"... it really is just telling us the average is low because a couple of guys were very young. 

 

 

I'm just nitpicking the statement "virtually the entire lineup was very young last year".  It wasn't.  Sano, Kepler, Buxton were very young... but half the lineup was 29+

[Brandon Warne]

 

I think weighted average takes ABs into account.....which is key. 

 

Yes, it does. 

 

Here's where you want to go: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml