Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[laloesch]

 

So keep doing the same formula that caused them to hit rock bottom? I believe that's called insanity in some circles.

 

It's not like the team signed five Vogelsongs and are blocking people.  *If* Berrios is not ready -- and let's face it he probably won't be -- go with Vogelsong for a few weeks/months. We're not talking about Armageddon here. Vogelsong  solves a temporary problem.

 

Why not Mejia or Duffey?  Surre Duffey was terrible last season but Vogelsong is 40 years old and it's not like he was ever good to begin with!  Plus the guy is on retirements doorstep.  If he does make the roster he's another Jason Marquis, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, etc.  Waste of a roster spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In a year we aren't expected to compete, I'd rather the Twins be particularly cautious with their young pitchers and limit the exposure and innings so those pitchers are better positioned to bear the innings load in future seasons.  

 

So... when we're expected to compete, obviously we have to prefer vets to youngsters because the young guys just haven't been tested enough.

 

But when we're not expected to compete, we STILL have to prefer vets to youngsters to protect them for future seasons?

 

Is there any time when we could prefer a youngster over a vet?

[Mike Sixel]

 

So... when we're expected to compete, obviously we have to prefer vets to youngsters because the young guys just haven't been tested enough.

 

But when we're not expected to compete, we STILL have to prefer vets to youngsters to protect them for future seasons?

 

Is there any time when we could prefer a youngster over a vet?

 

Beat me to it. 

[Doomtints]

 

I have no idea what this means.

 

They have not at any time in this rebuild committed to a rebuild, and playing youth, so that a year or two later they are good. 

 

so, no. I am arguing to commit to a rebuild, go with youth, give them a full year or more to learn and adjust. The exact opposite of what they've been doing the last 6 years.

 

Keeping a veteran/mentor around means giving up on a rebuild?

Are the young guys supposed to learn everything in a vacuum?

[Riverbrian]

 

Mejia is not a Pat Dean type.

 

And handing a spot to Ryan Vogelsong seems like a pretty steep price to pay for this mildly reducing your chances of needing a "Pat Dean type" midseason.

 

If you want to give Vogelsong a chance at winning the job in spring training, alongside Mejia, Berrios, Duffey, and maybe even Haley, that's fine.  But according to Nick Nelson, a roster spot has been Vogelsong's to lose since the day he signed his minor league contract.  And now it sounds like with May's injury, the last rotation spot is his to lose too. I'm not sure how that is defensible.

 

Under my scenerio... Majia would be #6 and that leaves us with a Pat Dean type when you need that 7th and we will need a 7th and 8th (most likely) more before the season is out. With the May injury... we are already at #6 who just might be Vogelsong. 

 

This is why I'm ok with Berrios, Mejia and Duffey starting out in Rochester. I don't feel it will last that long and that depth will slow down the Pat Dean like rescue missions of years past. 

 

On Vogelsong... i'm not defending Vogelsong for the 5th spot in the rotation... I have my concerns and doubts. I'm passive aggressively saying... OK... Fine... that's who you chose for the 5th spot let's see what he can do... but... but... if he fails... you better pull him quickly... no more letting guys flounder out there. 

[Doomtints]

 

Surre Duffey was terrible last season but Vogelsong is 40 years old

 

Duffey was worse than the V and he does not have the excuse of being 40.

Besides, Duffey profiles to be a reliever. Makes sense to put the guy where he can succeed, no?

[PseudoSABR]

 

So... when we're expected to compete, obviously we have to prefer vets to youngsters because the young guys just haven't been tested enough.

 

But when we're not expected to compete, we STILL have to prefer vets to youngsters to protect them for future seasons?

 

Is there any time when we could prefer a youngster over a vet?

This is an honest take?  (Because it feels a bit like trolling--as I suggested nothing like "obviously we prefer vets to youngsters b/c the young guys just haven't been tested")

 

It's not as if Berrios and Meija are going to be in the minors all season because Vogelsong is rostered on opening day.  They will get plenty of chances to get tested during this losing season.  

 

My point about the Twins not competing is that they can let the better, younger pitcher develop (if they thinks its best) and limit their innings, even though that pitcher is better than veteran.

 

When the team is competing, obviously you have more incentive to start the younger better pitcher.

[Vanimal46]

 

Keeping a veteran/mentor around means giving up on a rebuild?

Are the young guys supposed to learn everything in a vacuum?

 

I'm trying to figure out your argument throughout this thread and I'm lost. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Beat me to it. 

Maybe you can help him put it in less patronizing terms.  As I certainly wasn't supporting what he was suggesting I was.

[Doomtints]

 

What does his presence offer the 2017 Twins?

 

You can disagree with my point but flat out ignoring anyone said it is annoying.

 

Vogelsong buys Berrios a couple of weeks in the minors if he is still unusable when the season starts which is a very real possibility. No one ever said Vogelsong is a long term option.

 

So, for the last time, that's what his presence offers the 2017 Twins. Disagree with this if you want -- that's great -- but don't pretend no one is giving reasons for his presence.  

[Doomtints]

 

I'm trying to figure out your argument throughout this thread and I'm lost. 

 

You could try by not responding to a side comment that was someone's attempt to change the conversation into something else.....

[Vanimal46]

Happy Tuesday to you too. 

[Riverbrian]

Moderator Note:

 

Everyone relax a little. Don't make personally directed posts and don't take things personal. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keeping a veteran/mentor around means giving up on a rebuild?

Are the young guys supposed to learn everything in a vacuum?

 

What young pitchers are you referring to? Because all I see in Brandon's list, SP and RP, is veterans. Not one young pitcher.

[laloesch]

 

Duffey was worse than the V and he does not have the excuse of being 40.

Besides, Duffey profiles to be a reliever. Makes sense to put the guy where he can succeed, no?

 

Oh im not disputing that.  I just don't want him on the squad as a starter to begin with because of Molitor tendencies.

[PseudoSABR]

The real choice is likely between Vogelsong now or Andy Albers later.  It's just a lot of hand-wringing about the poor prospects not being given a chance. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe you can help him put it in less patronizing terms.  As I certainly wasn't supporting what he was suggesting I was.

 

I gotta admit, I read it the same way. 

 

As for your response to him, they have 3 good pitchers in AAA, if Meija, Berrios, and Duffey all start there. They can have any number of mediocre veterans there too. But, they literally, if Brandon is correct, have zero young starting pitchers in the majors.

 

There is no need to limit the innings on any of these guys at this point. There is, imo, need to get them to the majors and see what they can do, and also for them to learn in down years, not years they expect to be great.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The real choice is likely between Vogelsong now or Andy Albers later.  It's just a lot of hand-wringing about the poor prospects not being given a chance. 

 

Nope, it's about letting young players learn and develop in teh majors, committing to a rebuild. something this team has refused to do.

[Doomtints]

 

But, they literally, if Brandon is correct, have zero young starting pitchers in the majors.

 

Well, yes. If those 3 young guys you just called out all start in the minors, which Vogelsong's presence would allow, they won't be in the majors. This is such a bizarre point it must be trolling on your part.

 

But yes -- the idea is it's Vogelsong & giving young guys time to get warmed up in the minors v. no Vogelsong and someone being ready to play in the majors. The Twins are extremely smart to have an insurance policy for the very real possibility that none of them are ready on opening day, but at least one of them will probably be ready in another 6-8 weeks.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The real choice is likely between Vogelsong now or Andy Albers later.  It's just a lot of hand-wringing about the poor prospects not being given a chance. 

Except what Spycake and I are arguing is that Vogelsong is not a marked improvement over Albers.

 

And you don't start the season with a Vogelsong, you bring that guy up when the **** hits the fan.

 

If you start with Vogelsong, how do you demote him? Why does he accept that demotion? And if he'd accept it, why doesn't he accept it out of Spring Training?

 

Vogelsong has zero upside. He's not even a Pelfrey or Correia or Santiago. He's literally Andrew Albers, except pushing 40.

 

The Twins already have a Santiago. They don't need a worse version of him when they have two guys - Berrios and Mejia - each of which has a half season in AAA or more. Behind them, you have two more guys who had some kind of success in AA last season. Behind them, you have two more guys who had some kind of success in A+ last season.

 

At some point, you need to just walk away from the Vogelsongs of the world.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, yes. If those 3 young guys you just called out all start in the minors, which Vogelsong's presence would allow, they won't be in the majors. This is such a bizarre point it must be trolling on your part.

 

But yes -- the idea is it's Vogelsong & giving young guys time to get warmed up in the minors v. no Vogelsong and someone being ready to play in the majors. The Twins are extremely smart to have an insurance policy for the very real possibility that none of them are ready on opening day, but at least one of them will probably be ready in another 6-8 weeks.

 

how is it trolling, exactly? You pointed out they need veteran mentors, I asked who they would be mentoring given that no young players will be on the pitching staff. None.

 

And, you state that last opinion like a fact, which, let's just say, we disagree on that.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Except what Spycake and I are arguing is that Vogelsong is not a marked improvement over Albers.

 

And you don't start the season with a Vogelsong, you bring that guy up when the **** hits the fan.

 

If you start with Vogelsong, how do you demote him? Why does he accept that demotion? And if he'd accept it, why doesn't he accept it out of Spring Training?

 

Vogelsong has zero upside. He's not even a Pelfrey or Correia or Santiago. He's literally Andrew Albers, except pushing 40.

 

The Twins already have a Santiago. They don't need a worse version of him when they have two guys - Berrios and Mejia - each of which has a half season in AAA or more. Behind them, you have two more guys who had some kind of success in AA last season. Behind them, you have two more guys who had some kind of success in A+ last season.

 

At some point, you need to just walk away from the Vogelsongs of the world.

Look, the new regime picked Vogelsong over guys like Albers for this exact role.  I don't think there's any reason to doubt the new regime's rationale for picking Vogelsong over any of number of other players.  Maybe you're right that Vogelsong and Albers are interchangeable in terms of on the field production, but maybe there's more to Vogelsong than just results (I know the forbidden clubhouse guy, coach in waiting argument). But I also think you're ignoring the difference between mediocre/serviceable and bad.  Players you tend to be able to pick up in the middle of the season often have proven not to be serviceable (thus waived or released by another org.)  It's simply an assumption that Vogelsong is no better than Albers--in fact he might well be (again, why disstrust the new regime?) 

 

I also think you're framing the roster logistics backwards.  You lose Vogelsong whether he gets cut in spring training or he proves ineffective during the season--this is an essential element of my point: that if you don't roster Vogelsong out of spring training you lose him as an asset (how little that may be) altogether.  Again, you lose the team's offseason choice for a back end arm.  

 

Right the Twins already have Santiago who might need to be replaced, and they have Hughes and Gibson how have had both ineffectiveness and injury issues and then you have Santana who is a candidate to be traded.  That means to two things: 1) there will be plenty of opportunities for the youngsters 2) the need to have additional major league assets is EVEN higher.  

 

I think the greater fear is if you start with Berrios, and he fails, and you bring up Meija and he fails, and then you get other injuries/ineffectiveness to the rotation, well what then? At some point throwing pitching prospects on the mound to see if they stick is a really poor strategy.  I'd rather let the new regime to independently decide that a given pitching prospect is ready than have their hand forced by need and lack of depth. 

 

At some point, people need to realize that their advocacy of pushing pitching prospects to the majors hasn't borne out.  And that Vogelsongs of the world provides a buffer so that those prospects are ready (not just dominating the minor league box score).  

 

Again, given the mediocrity across the entire staff, Vogelsong being roster will not meaningfully limit the chances for Meija and Berrios.   And I think it's really foolish to be worrying about the guys at AA getting their chances.  I hope the Twins aren't forced to start reaching down that far into the system, because they shed Vogelsong (etc.) and Meija/Berrios have proved yet again to be ineffective at the major league level. 

 

(If this was August, I'd agree it be more meaningful for youngsters to get innnings regardless of the results; but it's March, and it's not as if Berrios earned a shot with his performance last year, if anyone should be ahead of Vogelsong its Meija (who had 8Ks in 4 innings today))

[PseudoSABR]

 

Nope, it's about letting young players learn and develop in teh majors, committing to a rebuild. something this team has refused to do.

Have you considered that it may be more difficult for young player to develop at the major league level? Are you not willing to defer to the new regime in such decisions? 

 

I swear these are the same arguments people made about the Ryan regime, and even then, I thought they were poor arguments given the early results of prospects pitching in the majors (Berrios, May, Gibson). 

 

I think you commit to the rebuild by putting your players in the best position to succeed which isn't simply throwing them out on the mound.   (I mean you can't be serious that Vogelsong would somehow set back a rebuild).

[Mike Sixel]

When have they pushed good SP prospects to the majors, and let them stay up for 2 years to learn and grow? When has that strategy failed, since they haven't followed it?

 

I guess I don't see how anyone ever gets promoted to pitch, if they have to be perfect already (ready to succeed seems to be a requirement) and if you won't let them stay up here if they aren't. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Have you considered that it may be more difficult for young player to develop at the major league level? Are you not willing to defer to the new regime in such decisions? 

 

I swear these are the same arguments people made about the Ryan regime, and even then, I thought they were poor arguments given the early results of prospects pitching in the majors (Berrios, May, Gibson). 

 

I think you commit to the rebuild by putting your players in the best position to succeed which isn't simply throwing them out on the mound.   (I mean you can't be serious that Vogelsong would somehow set back a rebuild).

 

Frank Viola had an ERA over 5 each of his first two years. Lots of teams leave guys out there to learn, yes. 

 

If anything, May should have been up and starting longer/earlier. now he's hurt. Wasted all of last year. Arguing May should not have been starting, because of lack of success, is, 100% wrong, imo. He should have been left to start and develop on this roster. 

[gheggs42]

Let him relieve when he comes back, he'll be 28 and the younger guys SHOULD be arrived by then. His arm will probably be stronger, maybe he'll be able to run it up to 97-98

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Frank Viola had an ERA over 5 each of his first two years. Lots of teams leave guys out there to learn, yes. 

 

If anything, May should have been up and starting longer/earlier. now he's hurt. Wasted all of last year. Arguing May should not have been starting, because of lack of success, is, 100% wrong, imo. He should have been left to start and develop on this roster. 

I'm pretty cautious about roster construction and even I'm ill at the thought of Vogelsong in the rotation.

 

The Twins would open the season with zero young starters on the roster at that point. When do we actually get to see young guys pitch? While I understand the need for padding in a rotation, if there are zero young pitchers, that's not padding. That's an old, bad rotation.

 

If Vogelsong was even a Hector Santiago level pitcher, I wouldn't complain about it too much. He's not. He's been pretty awful since 2012 and is now almost 40 years old.

 

Hector Santiago is rotation padding. Ryan Vogelsong is rotation filler. And I hate the idea of starting a season with filler when you're looking at six (!) guys in the upper minors who can/should get a shot at the MLB rotation within the next 18 months. At least one of them should be able to step forward with an 80 ERA+, which is what Vogelsong brings to the table.

[Doomtints]

 

Frank Viola had an ERA over 5 each of his first two years. Lots of teams leave guys out there to learn, yes. 

 

But Viola flashed utter brilliance for stretches of those seasons too. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

The Twins would open the season with zero young starters on the roster at that point. When do we actually get to see young guys pitch? While I understand the need for padding in a rotation, if there are zero young pitchers, that's not padding. That's an old, bad rotation.

I guess I don't understand the need to have young starting pitching, if that young pitching would better develop in the minors, esp. given the regime/philosophy change.   It seems like an artificial requirement--a requirement without factoring in whether or not those pitchers are ready. 

 

The lack of young pitchers isn't due to not giving Meija and Berrios a chance, it's because the Twins haven't developed any young pitching (mediocre or otherwise) since or alongside Kyle Gibson.  Typically, we should have at least a few pre-arb and arb eligible starters to consider, but the Twins have none (they had May but he got hurt).   We shouldn't force Meija/Berrios into the rotation to some how make up for what is five-year development gap.

 

Again, you'll see plenty of Meija, Berrios and likely others, whether we roster Vogelsong or not.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I was a big fan of Berrios in the minors prior to the May injury.  Now I have to think one of those guys (Berrios, Mejia, or Duffey) gets the 5 spot. Vogelsong is fine as a Pat Dean type roster filler that you need if the crap hits the fan, and I'd keep him in that capacity. I just don't like the idea of breaking camp with him. I'd be tempted to start with Duffey since he's had big league success and let Berrios/Mejia get some reps in Rochester.  I have no doubt that one or both will be up at some point this year for the inevitable injury/ineffectiveness. 

 

If anything, this would be a big reason to try and push a trade for Dozier.  Hope he comes out mashing taters to start the year and generates lots of interest come June.