Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[snepp]

 

That rotation.... Such a boring group of names. 

 

I agree. Where are the Grant Balfour's and Bob Walk's to keep it interesting?

[Vanimal46]

I agree. Where are the Grant Balfour's and Bob Walk's to keep it interesting?

At this point I'll take a young Boof Bonser or Moonshot Scott Baker.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I agree. Where are the Grant Balfour's and Bob Walk's to keep it interesting?

#Wordsmith

[Bark's Lounge]

 

 

At this point I'll take a young Boof Bonser or Moonshot Scott Baker.

This sounds like your are casting a pornographic feature.

[Riverbrian]

I thought that Chargois finished last year decently enough to keep a MLB job.

 

I think Chargois will be your only miss on your list. 

[Brandon Warne]

Agree, but I don't think anyone is more "cut-able" than those two. 

 

(edit: this was about O'Rourke/Santana)

[Brandon Warne]

 

I thought that Chargois finished last year decently enough to keep a MLB job.

 

I think Chargois will be your only miss on your list. 

 

If so it'd be at the expense of Duffey, I suspect. I have no issue with that. I like Chargois a lot. 

[Rosterman]

The thing is, for every minor league roster vet you add, you have to subtract someone. Be it in the rotation, the bullpen, catcher, or that extra bench bat. Who are the three-four guys (barring having a couple open the season on the 60-day) do you risk losing. The present to get some possible wins to get the fans excited -- which is the Twins #1 worry starting the season -- or do you stay put and rebuild and suffer  the losses (or possible surprises) of guys playing on the field who will be here again next year and even the year after that. You know the young guys WILL be here sooner rather than later.

[Riverbrian]

 

If so it'd be at the expense of Duffey, I suspect. I have no issue with that. I like Chargois a lot. 

 

I see Duffey as Rochester SP Depth. At least I'm hoping he will be SP Depth. 

 

Having Berrios, Duffey and Mejia in Rochester gives me hope that the Twins will actually replace sub-par performance when it happens. If Duffey is in the pen and Berrios is in the Twins rotation... You have nobody to replace Hughes or Gibson if they are plus 5 in the ERA column. 

 

By having those arms ready in Rochester... It makes me hopeful that the Twins will be able to give the vets one more chance and have a solution if the vets blow that chance. 

 

I'm just not going to worry about who is in the rotation on opening day... My worry is will any struggling vet pitchers be replaced or will they be allowed to continue like they were in 2016. 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

The thing is, for every minor league roster vet you add, you have to subtract someone. Be it in the rotation, the bullpen, catcher, or that extra bench bat. Who are the three-four guys (barring having a couple open the season on the 60-day) do you risk losing. The present to get some possible wins to get the fans excited -- which is the Twins #1 worry starting the season -- or do you stay put and rebuild and suffer  the losses (or possible surprises) of guys playing on the field who will be here again next year and even the year after that. You know the young guys WILL be here sooner rather than later.

 

I think I see them adding four guys: Gimenez, Vogelsong, Breslow, Park

My guess would be: 60-day Perkins, 60-day May, designate two of O'Rourke/Tonkin/Santana. 

 

Probably Tonkin/Santana since they're OOO

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Virtually the entire lineup was young last year.

i agree with your projection and probably agree that it's the right way to go considering the options.

 

It still sucks that there's no immediate depth around Mejia that would allow the rotation to get younger

[wsnydes]

That's a pretty depressing state of affairs. Unfortunately, I think you're pretty close. I'm with Van in saying that the starting pitching is yawn inducing, but I think that's where they're headed.

 

Even with the young bats, this team could be unwatchable early on. It's certainly not a roster to garner a lot of interest. That lack of interest could be even worse if the Wild and/or Timberwolves make a decent playoff push.

 

I'm still disappointed with the offseason, but the roster is what it is at this point. If they're quicker to pull the trigger on roster adjustments, that's a step in the right direction.

[beckmt]

Do not thnk Vogelsong should make this club.  Chargois will also be here.There still could be trades, there are several clubs looking for starting pitching.  At the end of 2017 you have 4 top pitchrers in FA,  find out what the youngsters have now!

Would prefer if there is no opt out date early that Vogelsong should start in AAA and Mejia or Berrios should be in the rotation. 

[dgwills]

How many of those starting pitchers finish the season in the same role. Two? One? Even Santana has age and injury history working against him. This year is shaping up to be a train wreck.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perkins won't go on the 60-day DL unless he has a setback. The 60 days would have to start from opening day, it can't be retroactive to spring training. And at this point, I think both he and the team would expect him to be activated before June.

[Linus]

Perkins won't go on the 60-day DL unless he has a setback. The 60 days would have to start from opening day, it can't be retroactive to spring training. And at this point, I think both he and the team would expect him to be activated before June.

He most certainly go on the DL. He hasn't even pitched to live batters yet.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Perkins won't go on the 60-day DL unless he has a setback. The 60 days would have to start from opening day, it can't be retroactive to spring training. And at this point, I think both he and the team would expect him to be activated before June.

 

Berardino said on my podcast today that they won't put a date on it, but were hesitant when he floated 5/1. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Having Berrios, Duffey and Mejia in Rochester gives me hope that the Twins will actually replace sub-par performance when it happens.

But what is "par"? What if the vets are pitching just good enough to not get cut? What if one of them has a hot start to buoy his season ERA a bit so he never dips below par (we'll call this the Mike Pelfrey Special)?

 

I'm not some kind of "5 rookies rotation" extremist or anything. But all 5 have to be veterans? We need to start with Ryan Vogelsong because we just don't want to be in a position where a rookie struggles and we may not have a *Ryan Vogelsong* available to replace him? It boggles the mind.

 

And you don't have to hand it to a rookie either. But it absolutely should not be Vogelsong's job to lose at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He most certainly go on the DL. He hasn't even pitched to live batters yet.

15 day DL, sure. But probably not 60-day DL unless they are unusually pessimistic. And that's the only DL that would open a 40-man spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Berardino said on my podcast today that they won't put a date on it, but were hesitant when he floated 5/1.

No doubt, and Perkins may very well not return until June. But I would be very surprised at this point if they took away even the possibility of him returning before June 1st. I think they would just cut a guy like O'Rourke before doing that.

[Thrylos]

 

Belisle and Kintzler are actually pretty good.

 

Based on what?

 

Career 3.76 &  3.67 FIP respectively.  That 3.67 FIP would place 105th in 2016th among relievers with 30+ IP.

 

So in other words they are middle of the pack relievers...

[Linus]

No doubt, and Perkins may very well not return until June. But I would be very surprised at this point if they took away even the possibility of him returning before June 1st. I think they would just cut a guy like O'Rourke before doing that.

I understand your point. The fact is the natural DL stint for him would be 30 - 45 days. Which of course doesn't exist. I guess what happens in the next few weeks will decide.

[Thrylos]

 

Berardino said on my podcast today that they won't put a date on it, but were hesitant when he floated 5/1. 

 

2019?

 

Stick.A.Fork.In.Him.

[Riverbrian]

But what is "par"? What if the vets are pitching just good enough to not get cut? What if one of them has a hot start to buoy his season ERA a bit so he never dips below par (we'll call this the Mike Pelfrey Special)?

 

I'm not some kind of "5 rookies rotation" extremist or anything. But all 5 have to be veterans? We need to start with Ryan Vogelsong because we just don't want to be in a position where a rookie struggles and we may not have a *Ryan Vogelsong* available to replace him? It boggles the mind.

 

And you don't have to hand it to a rookie either. But it absolutely should not be Vogelsong's job to lose at this point.

That is a tricky question no doubt and I don't think the answer is as simple as I will try to make it seem.

 

To answer your question. Can the pitcher make a pitch when we need him to make a pitch more often than not. Can he help us win. I'm not much into arbitrary lines but I think we can all agree that 5 plus ERA's are not close to any drawn line.

A hot start can be rewarded with a cushion but if the arm goes dead you should shut it dow for a bit and give a kid a chance to take the job.

 

I'd like to the entire organization to simply declare that poor play from veterans will not be tolerated in 2017 and beyond. I think that is how an organization gets respectable. Simply saying... we are not going to take it anymore. Play well or play a lot less or not at all or somewhere else.

 

Our starters were not going to lose their jobs in 2016 because we had nobody else. They were allowed to be comfortably horrible.

 

I think it's important depth in 2017 for Berrios, Duffey Mejia to be in the minors as replacement options because we need replacement options if we are going to do some much needed replacing instead of tolerating comfortably horrible starters all year long again.

 

If you start the year with Berrios and Duffey in the majors you are stuck with whatever happens because you have eliminated almost all of your depth/options on the farm and you are back looking for a Pat Dean type when you need that 7th different starting pitcher on May 10th.

 

I'm OK with Vogelsong giving it a go... maybe he can toss a 4.00 and help the team win some games... probably not... but maybe. I'm ok with giving a guy a chance to prove he can help... but if needs replacing... do it and don't wait for it to get better. If Gibson is still tossing a 5 plus in May... Put him in the Pen or Cut Him... do something else.... try something else...and I don't care about experience... investment or contracts. We can't put up with 5's anymore from well paid veterans. I don't want to hear about injuries being the reason that we must tolerate it either. If a player is struggling because of injury... DL Him and tell him to come back when healthy... when he can actually help the team win instead of making it harder to win.

 

Just to be sure I'm not understood... If the Twins are going to let Gibson and Santiago and Hughes and Vogelsong work through crappy performance anyway in 2017... like they did in 2016. Well.. yeah... then go with the kids because depth is only good if you are willing to use it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There are no scheduled days off between April 11 and April 26, so I would hate to see Volgelsong win a job just because it's only April or something. My guy Adrianza is already in the Molitor doghouse and on the way out, barely getting any shortstop innings. I like Polanco though and as long as he hits, I think people will tolerate his below average glove and arm. And let's be honest, Danny Santana is a lock. I am starting to wonder about the new front office. I like Chargois a lot. He will make the team. Hughes, jury is out. Hope he meets his objectives and is healthy for the start of the season.

[DocBauer]

Nice article Brandon, and I always appreciate your work and your perception.

 

Gut reaction? I think you're pretty close.

 

I am believing Park is making believers out of Molitor, the staff, and the FO. We still have a LOT of time left before the season starts. A lot of things are going to change between here and now. While a fan and believer in Vargas, I believe a healthy, hard working Park is taking advantage of an opportunity and Vargas, as of now, is going to AAA to begin the season.

 

Molitor and the FO want to improve the pitching and the defense. Does Gimenez do that as the backup catcher? I don't know. He might. Murphy still has options, Garver is probably better than either. I'm a big believer in Garver, but with limited time in AAA, I also have to ask myself if I want him to begin the season on the bench, or playing just about every day for Rochester before making a move? It's a tough call.

 

Despite a preference to improve team defense, which I applaud, I don't buy in to Adrianza. He continues to not hit. I think Benji Gonzalez (?) May have already moved ahead of him as an option. And I'm sorry to say this...I truly am...but despite some bad plays, DanSan has also made some good plays, and he has hit and produced thus far, and he would be my pick as the "last man standing" at this point for the last bench spot. (Until Goodrum proves he is ready).

 

I don't get Vogelsong at all! No offense to the guy. He is a batter and a survivor to be sure. But even if your attempt is to win more games and not simply run up a "rebuilding" white flag, you still have room for him? You still have the young and quite talented group of Berrios, Mejia, Duffey and even Haley...who I'm sure you want to keep in some way...as other options. IMHO, he is AAA bound with "opportunity" written next to his name and he should be grateful for such.

 

Chargois makes the pen unless he implodes. Duffey, or someone, gets cut loose.

[Danchat]

I definitely want Chargois in the bullpen. I'd rather send Breslow to AAA.

 

I also don't see any reason why Vogelsong should make the rotation. He's never pitched in the AL, hasn't had a good season since 2014, and is 39. I'll pass - he should be AAA depth. If Berrios still isn't ready for the majors, I'd much rather see Mejia or Duffey in the rotation. Even though Duffey should be in the pen.

 

Not sure on Adrianza. I need to see more of his defense and what semblance of offense he brings.

[DocBauer]

I don't disagree, but my theory is this: you can go from oldies to the kids. You can't do vice versa.

 

I can't like this post enough!

 

Owners, moderators, shouldn't we have the ability to love or maybe even double like a post, lol?

 

I absolutely don't like some of the roster projections posted here. Nor do I agree with all of them. But let's remember exactly things right here, right now, at this moment:

 

1] The roster is NOT set yet. Molitor may have more control this season, we shall see. And there is a new Marshall and Sheriff in town, and we don't know all their ideas or intentions or plans just yet.

 

2] With very little exception...teams coming off big seasons which we are not...the opening day rosters tend to be very fluid, even a few weeks to a month or so in.

 

3] Going back to point #2, Brandon is absolutely correct when he states it is easy to jettison a veteran for a young player but you can't go backward. As much as it chagrines me, should the team open with Vogelsong or Gimenez over Berrios or Garver, for example, will I, or anyone, care June 1st when the veteran is gone and the prospect is up for the rest of the season?

 

I am NOT advocating a bunch of hangers on veterans being kept for veterans sake. Not at all! BUT, if the powers that be decide to play a little game of "Risk" or "Sorry" for a month while a couple of young guys get off to good starts at AAA before coming up, I can be OK with that. Not what I would do...but I get it.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Nice article Brandon, and I always appreciate your work and your perception.

Gut reaction? I think you're pretty close.

I am believing Park is making believers out of Molitor, the staff, and the FO. We still have a LOT of time left before the season starts. A lot of things are going to change between here and now. While a fan and believer in Vargas, I believe a healthy, hard working Park is taking advantage of an opportunity and Vargas, as of now, is going to AAA to begin the season.

Molitor and the FO want to improve the pitching and the defense. Does Gimenez do that as the backup catcher? I don't know. He might. Murphy still has options, Garver is probably better than either. I'm a big believer in Garver, but with limited time in AAA, I also have to ask myself if I want him to begin the season on the bench, or playing just about every day for Rochester before making a move? It's a tough call.

Despite a preference to improve team defense, which I applaud, I don't buy in to Adrianza. He continues to not hit. I think Benji Gonzalez (?) May have already moved ahead of him as an option. And I'm sorry to say this...I truly am...but despite some bad plays, DanSan has also made some good plays, and he has hit and produced thus far, and he would be my pick as the "last man standing" at this point for the last bench spot. (Until Goodrum proves he is ready).

I don't get Vogelsong at all! No offense to the guy. He is a batter and a survivor to be sure. But even if your attempt is to win more games and not simply run up a "rebuilding" white flag, you still have room for him? You still have the young and quite talented group of Berrios, Mejia, Duffey and even Haley...who I'm sure you want to keep in some way...as other options. IMHO, he is AAA bound with "opportunity" written next to his name and he should be grateful for such.

Chargois makes the pen unless he implodes. Duffey, or someone, gets cut loose.

 

Bengie Gonzales is nowhere close, IMO. Org guy type.

[twinssporto]

I am excited to watch the offensive side of this team!  I disagree with some of the comments made about this club as unwatchable.  The pitching is lame but there will most likely be some upside surprises as well for that core of players.

 

I think of the huge potential we have on the offensive side of the equation and it really does remind me of the 87 team.

 

All of us here on TD along with the front office knew pitching was the low spot for this team.  It bothers me if they don't start more youth on the pitching side but I think I also understand their strategy. If the offensive side of this team really starts to rip it up and score a lot of runs, mediocre pitching can carry this team a long way. The bigger question is if this rotation and pen even qualifies for mediocre.