Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[drjim]

If Berrios, Mejia and/or Duffey show enough, Vogelsong isn't cracking the opening day rotation.

 

Vogelsong is probably the placeholder at the moment, and he should be in order not to put in a younger pitcher who isn't ready, but he has no contract and no upside. No need to keep him with a clearly better option.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, a week ago, it looked like May was going to be the 5th starter and Vogelsong would be in the pen. That was likely the FO's plan and they presumably already had roster moves in mind to make it happen. For those that want Vogelsong kept around as extra reinforcement, why is the bullpen seemingly no longer an option? They probably don't need May's spot just to keep Vogelsong around in some capacity.

 

If Mejia or whoever can win the 5th starter job, Vogelsong can still stick around the pen just in case. I wouldn't be crazy about it (he would mostly be redundant with Haley) but I wouldn't object as strongly as I do to the idea of a starting spot being his to lose.

[drjim]

Makes little sense to keep both Vogelsong and Haley.

[Doomtints]

 

His peripherals were best among Twins starters last year. The peripherals are a much better predictor of future ERA than an ERA driven by an extremely high HR/FB ratio, a significant drop in double play rate without a drop in groundball rate and an extremely low LOB rate. Is it possible the combination of bad luck and awful defense have derailed his future as a Twin?

He is 26 years old with 36 major league starts and a career xFIP of 3.82 (xFIP- of 91). There are only 9 living pitchers through age 25 with a better xFIP- over the last two years. Even if the xFIP overstates his ability, he absolutely needs to be on the 40 and must be given every opportunity to be a part of this rotation.

 

"Peripherals" are not a thing. You have to define what you are basing your opinion on.

[Riverbrian]

 

So the Kubel and Bartlett reunion tour was just fine because neither finished the season? You'd be fine with optioning Buxton and starting Drew Stubbs in CF under the assumption he is not allowed to finish the year?

I get that sometimes circumstances force you to start someone you know isn't a long term option at a position. I just don't think we are anywhere near those circumstances here. We've got enough resources to have an open competition for that 5th starter spot.

 

Kubel and Bartlett I was fine with at the time and still am in hindsight because it could have worked. However... Like Vogelsong... I never understood what they tried to do with Bartlett when Bonifocio was available to handle the same type of role but (in my opinion) better at it. I personally believe the Twins could have done better than Vogelsong but will give him a chance to earn a job as long as the Twins are willing to change direction when performance dictates.     

 

Optioning Buxton to start Stubbs? Absolutely Not... Because Buxton was starting to show something at the end of the year so now you let him continue doing the job. But... Yeah... Have a backup plan in case he struggles. We all need Plan B's and Exit strategies and the Twins have been pretty bad with Plan B's and exit strategies in my opinion.

 

Berrios... Duffey and Mejia did not show anything last year at the MLB level to make anyone say... the job belongs to them out of the gate in 2017. I don't like burning service time with training wheels and history has proven again and again that you will need 8 to 10 pitchers to make starts during the year and you can't stash vets in AAA. So let them compete for the first man up in Rochester. We will see all of them sooner eventually if they perform.    

 

I'll give anyone a chance to prove themselves. What I want the Twins to start doing is replacing the ones who are not (Plouffe) and playing the ones who are (Vargas). I'd like the players to determine their fate on the field with actual performance.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kubel and Bartlett I was fine with at the time and still am in hindsight because it could have worked. However... Like Vogelsong... I never understood what they tried to do with Bartlett when Bonifocio was available to handle the same type of role but (in my opinion) better at it. I personally believe the Twins could have done better than Vogelsong but will give him a chance to earn a job as long as the Twins are willing to change direction when performance dictates.     

 

Optioning Buxton to start Stubbs? Absolutely Not... Because Buxton was starting to show something at the end of the year so now you let him continue doing the job. But... Yeah... Have a backup plan in case he struggles. We all need Plan B's and Exit strategies and the Twins have been pretty bad with Plan B's and exit strategies in my opinion.

 

Berrios... Duffey and Mejia did not show anything last year at the MLB level to make anyone say... the job belongs to them out of the gate in 2017. I don't like burning service time with training wheels and history has proven again and again that you will need 8 to 10 pitchers to make starts during the year and you can't stash vets in AAA. So let them compete for the first man up in Rochester. We will see all of them sooner eventually if they perform.    

 

I'll give anyone a chance to prove themselves. What I want the Twins to start doing is replacing the ones who are not (Plouffe) and playing the ones who are (Vargas). I'd like the players to determine their fate on the field with actual performance.

 

Duffey is a pitcher, in his mid-20s. Service time isn't relevant for him at this point.

 

If you want to hold down pitchers for service time, you won't see Berrios until, what, August?

[nicksaviking]

 

 
I can get behind this. Maybe there are some things they can/want to do that would be easier to accomplish given some time in AAA.
 
I sure as hell don't want to see an entire lame duck veteran rotation, but if the new leadership believes that it will provide some long-term benefit I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
 
 
(for now anyway )

 

I don't know, that doesn't look like what they are doing to me. Teams generally put an emphasis on large infusions of veterans for quick fixes.

 

And from my perspective, the Twins are in no position to go for a quick fix, that's typically what teams poised to make a run do. These guys seem to be giving every indication that they think these cheap vets are the key to being competitive.

[zenser]

Whether they get shelled or not, I would really like to see what Berrios, Meija, and to a lesser extent, Duffey can do with a full season work load.  They have all been up and had a taste, now it is time to stop jerking them around.  They need a full season in the rotation.  Yes, some starts might be bad.  I want to know if they can figure out how to pitch at this level.  I want them to be able to learn how to get batters out and when things are going the best for them, how to make the proper adjustments.

[Vanimal46]

 

C'mon guys, we all know what this is about - there is a real lack of trust between the fans and the  Front Office. If the choice were between (1) keeping a vet like Vogelsong in the rotation for a few starts to let Berrios, Mejia, Duffy get their feet under them in AAAand then replace him with a young guy no matter how "well" he's doing (or another starter not doing so "well"), and (2) starting one of the young guys as the #5 starterand taking the risk that he will flame out, then reasonable minds could differ and you could see both sides of the argument. The real problem  is that many of us do not believe that those will wind up being choices.  We're afraid the Front Office will simply roll with vets until July or August absent injury and yet another development year will be lost. I hope the new FO  is not like the old FO and actually looks at long-term growth for the younger players rather than a few short term wins (if they actually happen).. It might not be fair to the new FO that we visit the sins of the old FO upon it,  but if  this were the old days and I had to make a bet, I would bet that they keep the veterans in the rotation the entire season with young guys not getting a chance until September. The old front office would keep every veteran with an ERA under 5.5 in the rotation until his arm fell off before they would think of giving the guy from AAA a shot. With the new FO, we shall see. Add to that the manager who prefers veteran players to young players  and things start getting a little scary. Given the history, it's hard to give the FO the benefit of the doubt even though we all probably should.

 

Great post! There's definitely a distrust between the FO and fans.... We've been hardwired to think a certain way because the past regime had clear trends on how they built the 25 man roster. I hope we're all pleasantly surprised by the new regime's moves when the season gets underway. 

 

Molitor is still the bridge between the old and new regimes. And, like you said, he's shown a tendency to prefer veterans over young players. That in itself is scary since he's the one dictating playing time. 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, this FO spent the whole off season talking about veteran leadership, and tried to sign 41 year old DH types.....so, so far, evidence points to veterans, not youth, as their preference, doesn't it?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

With Vogelsong, Breslow and Belisle still in camp, we have three washed up veteran bullpen pitchers in a fierce battle for only two washed up veteran bullpen spots.

 

That is the spring training competition I will be watching.

[Riverbrian]

Duffey is a pitcher, in his mid-20s. Service time isn't relevant for him at this point.

 

If you want to hold down pitchers for service time, you won't see Berrios until, what, August?

Service time is a consideration... not the determination factor. I'm saying performance on the field and backup plans for injuries and poor performance are the main considerations.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The difference in the ERAs you quoted was 1.49, over 9 innings. Over an optimistic 6 inning start, the difference would be 1 run. Is that a blowout meltdown? Now put those figures into your own stated goal of a short term player "buying some time for Berrios at AAA" and whatever difference to the Twins is pretty inconsequential.

That ERA is also ignoring that Vogelsong is a career NL pitcher while Albers is a career AL pitcher.

 

The actual difference is smaller, maybe close to nonexistent. Lots of NL pitchers implode when they reach the AL.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I feel that Vogelsong needs to earn his spot on the rotation and so far with his 7.94 ERA in spring training he hasn't done anything to "earn" his spot. In his last start against a "JV" Pittsburgh Pirates team he gave up 3 runs (all earned) in 2 1/3 innings, compare that to Mejia's 0 runs and 8 k's in 3 1/3 innings and there isn't a comparison.

 

Plus I am not sold that Berrios will be up by May if he starts in the minors. Remember Matt Garza in '06 and '07? Garza had a pretty good spring training while Carlos Silva did everything to lose his spot in the rotation. What happened? Silva got the #5 spot and we didn't see Garza until mid July. You may ask how this is relavent, well in '07 Garza just came off his first MLB season and before then was as highly touted as Berrios was before last year. I feel that with Berrios they will be so "careful" with him that we don't see him till after the All Star break.

[ThejacKmp]

Still two weeks out. I think the Twins will go with Mejia over Vogelsong. It's a new regime and they have young options.

 

Adrianza will be interesting. Santana gives them a decent defensive backup in the OF (important with Buxton being injury prone thus far in his career) but he doesn't add much in the IF. It's really a matter of prioritizing OF defense vs IF defense. I think I'd keep Santana - not cuz I like him but because he adds a pinch running option and the Twins are weaker in the OF than the IF (Escobar can fill in 2B, SS and 3B and has generally done well in that role.)

 

I guess I'm saying I'd rather see Eduardo Escobar as our utility infielder than Eduardo Escobar as an emergency OF. It would be hard to see Danny Santana surviving the year though - somebody will force their way up to the big club (Palka? Park/Vargas? Vielma?)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, thus far Mejia has earned it. I'd have no problems if they went north with him.  that could change though as going forward you'll be seeing more major leaguers than minor leaguers.

[jorgenswest]

"Peripherals" are not a thing. You have to define what you are basing your opinion on.

Sorry. I should have defined peripherals. For pitchers key peripherals are events that are most directly under their control. Strike out rate, walk rate and fly ball rate are all measures that stabilize in relatively small samples. They are the basis for most ERA estimators and have shown to be a much better predictor of future ERA than previous ERA. I hope that is helpful.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If you want Berrios or Mejia to be the #5 and neither are ready right away, Vogelsong absolutely makes sense to start the year. If Vogelsong is mediocre, let him go when either of them are warmed up, which would hopefully be sometime in May or June. If Vogelsong is pitching well, ride it out and enjoy the depth. Someone will get injured at some point.

i liked this, but I feel bad about it. I wish there was an "agree" button.

 

Truthfully the AAA depth is terrible still. As Brandon pointed out, you can go old to young, but tough to go vice-versa

 

I'm not happy about it

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well, this FO spent the whole off season talking about veteran leadership, and tried to sign 41 year old DH types.....so, so far, evidence points to veterans, not youth, as their preference, doesn't it?

also might be that they're stocking up for a fire sale

[Mike Sixel]

 

also might be that they're stocking up for a fire sale

 

Those don't really happen all that much, with guys signed the previous off season. The number are shockingly low, actually.

 

You think which guys are going to be tradeable, that they signed?

[Willihammer]

 

i liked this, but I feel bad about it. I wish there was an "agree" button.

Truthfully the AAA depth is terrible still. As Brandon pointed out, you can go old to young, but tough to go vice-versa

I'm not happy about it

But Vogelsong is the definition of a replacement level player. If they went full youth and it blew up in their face it wouldn't be that hard to find him or Deduno / Dean / Pino etc. mid-season and reverse course.

[Willihammer]

Maybe not full youth but the 5th starter job anyway. One roster spot.

[Doomtints]

 

i liked this, but I feel bad about it. I wish there was an "agree" button.

Truthfully the AAA depth is terrible still. As Brandon pointed out, you can go old to young, but tough to go vice-versa

I'm not happy about it

 

I agree with you.

 

Some people are losing it in this thread over nothing but semantics. No one ever said Vogelsong is an ideal pitching candidate, not one person has defended him as being great. We would all love a better option. 

 

But he IS depth, he IS a backup plan if the young guys continue to not be ready.

Some people are saying, hey, just pick up Dean or Pino or Albers or whoever again, forgetting that those guys are actually worse than Vogelsong and those are not backup plans. Those are panic moves. The Twins are being smart to have a guy who will be warmed up and familiar who can bridge any gaps that might be there when the season starts.

Vogelsong's is "replacement level" but the other options being thrown out there are worse than he is. Ryan never bothered to sign short-term bridge players so perhaps some Twins fans are not accustomed to the idea.  If Vogelsong can keep the Twins competitive in just 40% of his starts, he is a typical #5 pitcher and his ERA looks like he could do that.  Dean, Pino, Albers, etc., won't give the team that. Putting those three out there are automatic losses.

So calm down everybody. IF Vogelsong starts the year, it's a temporary solution to *help* the long term solutions by giving them some space in the minors.  And this is still an *if* -- he might get cut and blood pressures would have been raised for nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree with you.

 

Some people are losing it in this thread over nothing but semantics. No one ever said Vogelsong is an ideal pitching candidate, not one person has defended him as being great. We would all love a better option. 

 

But he IS depth, he IS a backup plan if the young guys continue to not be ready.

Some people are saying, hey, just pick up Dean or Pino or Albers or whoever again, forgetting that those guys are actually worse than Vogelsong and those are not backup plans. Those are panic moves. The Twins are being smart to have a guy who will be warmed up and familiar who can bridge any gaps that might be there when the season starts.

Vogelsong's is "replacement level" but the other options being thrown out there are worse than he is. Ryan never bothered to sign bridge players so perhaps some Twins fans are not accustomed to the idea.  If Vogelsong can keep the Twins competitive in just 40% of his starts he is a typical #5 pitcher and his ERA looks like he could do that.  Dean, Pino, Albers, etc., won't give the team that.

 

There is so much wrong here.....

 

we are talking about 1 SP spot being given to a non-veteran. One. That's all we are asking for. One. With the backup plans to be the other 4 young guys (or a veteran in AAA, not the majors).

[Oldgoat_MN]

Vogelsong was signed on January 11. It's not like the FO searched the world over to see who would be the best veteran to help the younger pitchers and provide a fallback option. They waited, Terry Ryan style, until the remaining players were starting to worry if anyone would sign them, then signed someone inexpensive.

That said, I was one who was saying early in the off-season that we should not cut Santiago loose or we may find ourselves starting Pat Dean/Andrew Albers pitchers again this year.

 

What with Trevor May going down to injury already, I'm not too upset that Vogelsong is on the roster. I just want Mejia, Berrios, et al, to have a real shot at the rotation if they perform well.

 

Insisting on starting 5 veteran pitchers, most (or all) of whom will not be part of the Twins next contending season, feels like treading water.

[jud6312]

I hope someone runs over Vogelsong's foot with a golf cart so this can't happen. 

[jud6312]

 

That rotation.... Such a boring group of names. 

Boring is definitely not the word I'd use, but we can go with that.

[jud6312]

 

I agree with you.

 

Some people are losing it in this thread over nothing but semantics. No one ever said Vogelsong is an ideal pitching candidate, not one person has defended him as being great. We would all love a better option. 

 

But he IS depth, he IS a backup plan if the young guys continue to not be ready.

Some people are saying, hey, just pick up Dean or Pino or Albers or whoever again, forgetting that those guys are actually worse than Vogelsong and those are not backup plans. Those are panic moves. The Twins are being smart to have a guy who will be warmed up and familiar who can bridge any gaps that might be there when the season starts.

Vogelsong's is "replacement level" but the other options being thrown out there are worse than he is. Ryan never bothered to sign short-term bridge players so perhaps some Twins fans are not accustomed to the idea.  If Vogelsong can keep the Twins competitive in just 40% of his starts, he is a typical #5 pitcher and his ERA looks like he could do that.  Dean, Pino, Albers, etc., won't give the team that. Putting those three out there are automatic losses.

So calm down everybody. IF Vogelsong starts the year, it's a temporary solution to *help* the long term solutions by giving them some space in the minors.  And this is still an *if* -- he might get cut and blood pressures would have been raised for nothing.

Assuming a soon-to-be 40-year-old pitcher that has been below average 3 of the last 4 years in the National League is going to come to the AL and be even a serviceable pitcher is a bit of a reach.

[jud6312]

 

I'm still in denial about May. 

 

That said, tell me what it is about Vogelwhatever that gets him love here?  I'm not seeing the reason to block Mejia or Berrios over him.  I'd give one a shot, and I don't care whom at this point (baring of course a Dozier trade). 

Once upon a time there was a 33-year-old pitch-to-contact pitcher named Ryan. In the year of our lord 2000 and 11 he made a deal with a shifty looking wizard that allowed his average stuff to not get teed off on like batting practice and the results were good. So good, in fact, that he was named to the "Team of Stars" and even earned 1 whole point in the annual Best Pitcher Competition.

 

Sadly, the wizard's spell quickly dissipated Ryan became below average again. As he aged and became more and more awful, he lost the confidence of his mates and was banished to the wastelands known as Pittsburgh - with equally terrible results.

 

Sensing his impending expiration, Ryan waited patiently for his opportunity to strike.

 

When the penny-pinching tyrant in the northern lands of Paul and Minnie finally replaced his 900-year-old grand wizard with two fresh-faced young lads to run the family empire, Ryan swooped in and baffled them with 6-year-old WHIPs and WARs and FIPs, turning the dynamic duo into Sabermetrics pudding and rendering them defenseless to his wise veteran ways.

 

Soon his younger, better competitors began hobbling around, joining the Puerto Ricans in battle, or simply being cast aside, and Ryan triumphantly claimed is spot atop the very bottom spot it hurler lineup.

 

Or something like that.

[Doomtints]

 

Assuming a soon-to-be 40-year-old pitcher that has been below average 3 of the last 4 years in the National League is going to come to the AL and be even a serviceable pitcher is a bit of a reach.

 

The reason NL pitchers "struggle" in the AL is because in the NL they get pulled earlier. NL pitchers do not have to pace themselves as much.

 

Were you expecting Vogelsong, or any #5 pitcher, to be pitching into the 6th-8th innings?