Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like Duffey as a starter, and personally I'd probably start him over Vogelsong.  I just don't get the love there. I have no problems with him in Rochester as a starter too. 

[alarp33]

 

It's a weighted average. It does exactly what it's supposed to. The important players in the lineup were young last year, and got a ton of plate appearances.

 

I understand what a weighted average is. You are missing the point.  "virtually the entire lineup was young" is an incorrect statement.  4 of the top 7 most at bats were players 29 or older.  

 

Yes, Sano + Kepler got a good amount of at bats and brought down the weighted average. But "weighted average" does not in any way prove your statement that the whole lineup was young correct

[Vanimal46]

 

But what is "par"? What if the vets are pitching just good enough to not get cut? What if one of them has a hot start to buoy his season ERA a bit so he never dips below par (we'll call this the Mike Pelfrey Special)?

I'm not some kind of "5 rookies rotation" extremist or anything. But all 5 have to be veterans? We need to start with Ryan Vogelsong because we just don't want to be in a position where a rookie struggles and we may not have a *Ryan Vogelsong* available to replace him? It boggles the mind.

And you don't have to hand it to a rookie either. But it absolutely should not be Vogelsong's job to lose at this point.

 

I hope there is no "par" this season. And evaluate after each outing to see if a particular pitcher's stuff is still looking good or else replace him with a young option. With Pelfrey, it was noticeable that his sinker was no longer looking as good as it did earlier in the year. Since his stats looked decent from a hot start, they kept with status quo. I hope that will be the difference we see between the new and old regimes. 

Concur with your thoughts on Vogelsong. This is also something that I hope the new FO steps up and takes care of. The minor league options aren't getting any younger. If this is truly an evaluation year, then let's not waste time evaluating a 39 year old pitcher who isn't going to be here 12 months from now. 

[mikelink45]

I got to Vogelsong and stopped.  I could not continue.  That would be the worst and if it happens my enthusiasm will be cut too.  Nothing better than tweaking the worse pitching staff with an old over the hill (his hill was quite low) arm that gives us nothing to hope for.  I can only hope you are wrong. 

[Doomtints]

 

There are no scheduled days off between April 11 and April 26, so I would hate to see Volgelsong win a job just because it's only April or something. My guy Adrianza is already in the Molitor doghouse and on the way out, barely getting any shortstop innings. I like Polanco though and as long as he hits, I think people will tolerate his below average glove and arm. And let's be honest, Danny Santana is a lock. I am starting to wonder about the new front office. I like Chargois a lot. He will make the team. Hughes, jury is out. Hope he meets his objectives and is healthy for the start of the season.

If you want Berrios or Mejia to be the #5 and neither are ready right away, Vogelsong absolutely makes sense to start the year. If Vogelsong is mediocre, let him go when either of them are warmed up, which would hopefully be sometime in May or June. If Vogelsong is pitching well, ride it out and enjoy the depth. Someone will get injured at some point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The idea of Vogelsong in the rotation makes me want to throw up in my mouth.

 

I'm fine with starting the season with veteran insurance on the roster but that doesn't mean the entire rotation needs to be veterans.

 

Berrios is ready to go right now. Meija will be ready to go soon. Later in the season, one of Gonsalves or Romero or both will be ready to go.

 

And that doesn't bring up guys like Stewart and Jay, who may suddenly step forward at any time.

 

Exactly how much veteran presence does this team need?

[laloesch]

 

I updated my potential Opening Day roster projection for the Twins here: 

 

http://zonecoverage.com/2017/twins/projecting-the-minnesota-twins-2017-opening-day-roster-take-2/

 

As always, comments and critiques are welcomed!

 

 

Ughhh.  Ryan Vogelsong as 5th starter?  Yuck.  Can't the team gamble once and go with either Berrios or Meija?  If you really have to why not give Duffey a second shot at the starting five.  At least he's young.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you start the year with Berrios and Duffey in the majors you are stuck with whatever happens because you have eliminated almost all of your depth/options on the farm and you are back looking for a Pat Dean type when you need that 7th different starting pitcher on May 10th.

Mejia is not a Pat Dean type.

 

And handing a spot to Ryan Vogelsong seems like a pretty steep price to pay for this mildly reducing your chances of needing a "Pat Dean type" midseason.

 

If you want to give Vogelsong a chance at winning the job in spring training, alongside Mejia, Berrios, Duffey, and maybe even Haley, that's fine.  But according to Nick Nelson, a roster spot has been Vogelsong's to lose since the day he signed his minor league contract.  And now it sounds like with May's injury, the last rotation spot is his to lose too. I'm not sure how that is defensible.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The idea of Vogelsong in the rotation makes me want to throw up in my mouth.

 

I'm fine with starting the season with veteran insurance on the roster but that doesn't mean the entire rotation needs to be veterans.

 

Berrios is ready to go right now. Meija will be ready to go soon. Later in the season, one of Gonsalves or Romero or both will be ready to go.

 

And that doesn't bring up guys like Stewart and Jay, who may suddenly step forward at any time.

 

Exactly how much veteran presence does this team need?

 

All of it. 

 

Were you not listening to Falvine? It was all about veterans and leadership this off season. All of it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I suspect some folks here are confused about Ryan Vogelsong too.  Vogelsong is not a run of the mill veteran starter like Santiago, or Hughes, or even Milone, etc.  Vogelsong is worse than that.  His last 4 seasons, by ERA+:

 

2013: 60

2014: 86

2015: 82

2016: 87

 

Those last two years also include some relief work. And he's on a minor league deal, and he turns 40 in July.

 

I can't see how anyone could be cool with making a bullpen spot his to lose, considering he'd be redundant in the pen with Haley.  And now we're basically upgrading it to a rotation spot to lose?  Not a bench spot, not a back of the bullpen spot, but a starting rotation spot?  Are we out of our minds?

[Brandon Warne]

 

The idea of Vogelsong in the rotation makes me want to throw up in my mouth.

 

I'm fine with starting the season with veteran insurance on the roster but that doesn't mean the entire rotation needs to be veterans.

 

Berrios is ready to go right now. Meija will be ready to go soon. Later in the season, one of Gonsalves or Romero or both will be ready to go.

 

And that doesn't bring up guys like Stewart and Jay, who may suddenly step forward at any time.

 

Exactly how much veteran presence does this team need?

 

I'm curious how you came to the conclusion that Berrios is ready to go right now?

[Doomtints]

 

I'm not sure how that is defensible.

 

103 losses.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm curious how you came to the conclusion that Berrios is ready to go right now?

"Ready to go" is a bad way to put it. "Ready for another shot" is more what I meant.

 

The guy has more than one season of AAA. At some point, he needs to work on pitching against MLB hitters. Few players are finished products out of the gate and unless the Twins have very specific adjustments Berrios needs to make against MiLB hitters, he should be in the Minnesota rotation.

 

Especially over Ryan Vogelsong, who has been several shades of terrible for the past few years. It's different when you're choosing May, Gibson, or Santiago over Berrios and something else entirely when Ryan Vogelsong is Jose's replacement.

 

May, Gibson, and Santiago have modest upside. Vogelsong's upside is "not the worst starter in the league".

[Doomtints]

 

I suspect some folks here are confused about Ryan Vogelsong too.  Vogelsong is not a run of the mill veteran starter like Santiago, or Hughes, or even Milone, etc.  Vogelsong is worse than that.  His last 4 seasons, by ERA+:

 

2013: 60

2014: 86

2015: 82

2016: 87

 

As he is competing with Berrios and Duffey for a spot, it would be fair to throw their numbers out there too.

The other two names you mentioned in your earlier post as 'competing for the spot' don't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the opening day roster.

 

I don't think anyone expects Vogelsong to finish the year with the Twins. Should he start the year with the Twins? Definitely, if Berrios is not ready yet.

[Brandon Warne]

To repeat: this isn't to say it's how I'd do it, but what I sense will happen. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

As he is competing with Berrios and Duffey for a spot, it would be fair to throw their numbers out there too.

The other two names you mentioned in your earlier post as 'competing for the spot' don't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the opening day roster.

 

I don't think anyone expects Vogelsong to finish the year with the Twins. Should he start the year with the Twins? Definitely, if Berrios is not ready yet.

 

Why? Why not Duffey or Meija, if not Berrios? This is a rebuilding team, take your lumps like other rebuilding teams, and gather data (and help them adjust) on the young guys. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Mejia is not a Pat Dean type.

 

And handing a spot to Ryan Vogelsong seems like a pretty steep price to pay for this mildly reducing your chances of needing a "Pat Dean type" midseason.

 

If you want to give Vogelsong a chance at winning the job in spring training, alongside Mejia, Berrios, Duffey, and maybe even Haley, that's fine.  But according to Nick Nelson, a roster spot has been Vogelsong's to lose since the day he signed his minor league contract.  And now it sounds like with May's injury, the last rotation spot is his to lose too. I'm not sure how that is defensible.

 

To me, Vogelsong is the Pat Dean type. I have no problems with him in AAA in that role. Not liking the idea of him in the rotation now that May is out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As he is competing with Berrios and Duffey for a spot, it would be fair to throw their numbers out there too.

The other two names you mentioned in your earlier post as 'competing for the spot' don't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the opening day roster.

 

I don't think anyone expects Vogelsong to finish the year with the Twins. Should he start the year with the Twins? Definitely, if Berrios is not ready yet.

 

Haley doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the roster?  Since when?  As a Rule 5'er, I thought he had the inside track on a bullpen spot.  I agree he probably doesn't stand much of a chance at the rotation, but if the objective is to give someone else innings while Berrios percolates a bit more in AAA, his name should probably be in the mix -- he's not a super-raw Rule 5 guy, he spent over half the 2016 starting in AAA and doing fairly well.

 

And why shouldn't Mejia have a chance at the fifth starter spot?  He's got AAA experience too and even a MLB cup of coffee.

[Doomtints]

 

Why? Why not Duffey or Meija, if not Berrios? This is a rebuilding team, take your lumps like other rebuilding teams, and gather data (and help them adjust) on the young guys. 

 

So keep doing the same formula that caused them to hit rock bottom? I believe that's called insanity in some circles.

 

It's not like the team signed five Vogelsongs and are blocking people.  *If* Berrios is not ready -- and let's face it he probably won't be -- go with Vogelsong for a few weeks/months. We're not talking about Armageddon here. Vogelsong  solves a temporary problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mejia is not a Pat Dean type.

 

And handing a spot to Ryan Vogelsong seems like a pretty steep price to pay for this mildly reducing your chances of needing a "Pat Dean type" midseason.

 

If you want to give Vogelsong a chance at winning the job in spring training, alongside Mejia, Berrios, Duffey, and maybe even Haley, that's fine.  But according to Nick Nelson, a roster spot has been Vogelsong's to lose since the day he signed his minor league contract.  And now it sounds like with May's injury, the last rotation spot is his to lose too. I'm not sure how that is defensible.

If the Twins find themselves in a spot where they need a Pat Dean type midseason, that means the season has gone to hell in a handbasket again and it's largely irrelevant anyway. At that point, may as well just throw whatever you have at the wall (Romero, Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart) and see what sticks because the season is entirely lost.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So keep doing the same formula that caused them to hit rock bottom? I believe that's called insanity in some circles.

 

It's not like the team signed five Vogelsongs and are blocking people.  *If* Berrios is not ready, go with Vogelsong. We're not talking about Armageddon here.

 

I have no idea what this means.

 

They have not at any time in this rebuild committed to a rebuild, and playing youth, so that a year or two later they are good. 

 

so, no. I am arguing to commit to a rebuild, go with youth, give them a full year or more to learn and adjust. The exact opposite of what they've been doing the last 6 years.

[Willihammer]

According to Berardino, Vogelson's contract terms are:

 

 

Veteran right-hander Ryan Vogelsong will be paid at a rate of $1 million if he’s added to the Twins’ big-league roster at some point this season.

Signed recently to a minor-league deal, Vogelsong, 39, stands to earn up to an additional $2.5 million if he makes 30 starts in the big leagues. He also has $1 million worth of incentives should he appear in 55 games, with five different levels of $200,000 payments.

There is no in-season opt-out date at this point should Vogelsong not head north with the club out of spring training. As a veteran, he has the typical late March ability to become a free agent if not added to the 40-man roster.

What are the chances he'd opt out if the Twins don't roster him? Seems doubtful he'd find a better offer elsewhere. Or a team with more pitching volatility.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To me, Vogelsong is the Pat Dean type. I have no problems with him in AAA in that role. Not liking the idea of him in the rotation now that May is out.

Yes, this is fair.  I don't think Vogelsong has a meaningfully better chance of 2017 success than, say, Jason Wheeler.  I mean, Vogelsong might put up an 85 ERA+ and Wheeler a 70, but in the brief time we'd want either to be in the 2017 MLB rotation, it's not a meaningful difference.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, this is fair.  I don't think Vogelsong has a meaningfully better chance of 2017 success than, say, Jason Wheeler.  I mean, Vogelsong might put up an 85 ERA+ and Wheeler a 70, but in the brief time we'd want either to be in the 2017 MLB rotation, it's not a meaningful difference.

Exactly. Vogelsong doesn't even have Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey upside at this point.

 

So what is gained by putting him in the rotation? That he may be slightly less terrible than your 7/8/9 rotation options or even some rando you pull off the waiver wire?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What are the chances he'd opt out if the Twins don't roster him? Seems doubtful he'd find a better offer elsewhere. Or a team with more pitching volatility.

If the Twins don't roster him, I think Vogelsong would still opt out, but he could just come back to us on another minor league deal with a later opt out date.  Without looking at the projected AAA rotation, I'd probably be open to that.

[Vanimal46]

 

According to Berardino, Vogelson's contract terms are:

 

What are the chances he'd opt out if the Twins don't roster him? Seems doubtful he'd find a better offer elsewhere. Or a team with more pitching volatility.

 

Probably slim. There's not many teams with a more dire pitching rotation than the Twins... San Diego Dad's are going with youth, as are the Reds. Don't see either one adding a 39 year old to the mix. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's not like the team signed five Vogelsongs and are blocking people.  *If* Berrios is not ready -- and let's face it he probably won't be -- go with Vogelsong for a few weeks/months. We're not talking about Armageddon here. Vogelsong  solves a temporary problem.

While not five Vogelsongs, the projected rotation here does include 5 veterans which seems a bit overkill.  There are enough close MLB arms that we should be comfortable letting one of them win the 5th starter spot, even if it's not Berrios or even Duffey right away.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To repeat: this isn't to say it's how I'd do it, but what I sense will happen. 

Thanks. Yes, I get that from you.  But a lot of others seem to be personally endorsing Vogelsong.

[PseudoSABR]

I think the outcry from Vogelsong potentially rostering the final spot in the rotation is overblown.  Given the precarious health of pitchers I think its incumbent on the Twins to keep around as many major league ready arms as possible; that necessarily means rostering veterans over youngsters who still have options, at least at the beginning of the year.  

 

Perhaps Berrios or Meija would procure better results on opening day, but they also could benefit from more time in the minors--esp. if the Twins really are instituting a new pitching philosophy org. wide.  Given the regime change, I think we should defer to their process and judgment, until proven otherwise.  

 

Each year fans clamor for pitching prospect promotions, and yet, when those pitchers finally arrive (often too late for many) to the majors, the prospects implode (see Berrios, May, and Gibson).  I think our sense of when pitching prospects are ready or deserve a shot over veteran are pretty off-base.  In this sense, we probably shouldn't expect Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, or Stewart to pitch meaningful innings for the Twins this season.  Pitching prospects need a frustrating amount of time--perhaps with the changes to the pitching philosophy, when these prospects do arrive, they are in better position to succeed than the pitching prospects of the past couple years.

 

If Vogelsong ends up netting 50-70 mediocre innings, so what? They'll be plenty of opportunities for Berrios and Meija.    In a year we aren't expected to compete, I'd rather the Twins be particularly cautious with their young pitchers and limit the exposure and innings so those pitchers are better positioned to bear the innings load in future seasons.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So what is gained by putting him in the rotation? That he may be slightly less terrible than your 7/8/9 rotation options or even some rando you pull off the waiver wire?

Yeah, this isn't clear to me, from the pro-Vogelsong crowd.

 

I understand that sometimes you need a lousy veteran. Got a bunch of young guys?  Leave one spot for a vet, sure.  Got an open spot and only one young option to fill it? Let the vet start until you're more comfortable moving the young guy up, okay.  But those scenarios don't seem to apply to the Twins here -- we've got 4 vets guaranteed rotation jobs already, and ~4 young guys with the experience to realistically break camp in the 5th spot (even if it's more of an evaluation opportunity than a long-term commitment).

 

We all seem to agree that Vogelsong has very little chance of being a positive MLB contributor.  And he has virtually zero chance of becoming a trade asset.  What does his presence offer the 2017 Twins?