Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

[PseudoSABR]

 

When have they pushed good SP prospects to the majors, and let them stay up for 2 years to learn and grow? When has that strategy failed, since they haven't followed it?

 

I guess I don't see how anyone ever gets promoted to pitch, if they have to be perfect already (ready to succeed seems to be a requirement) and if you won't let them stay up here if they aren't. 

I think that can work for some pitchers, but I'll defer to the judgment of the new regime to make that assessment on a case by case basis.  If a pitcher's failures can be foreseen, and has particular and achievable things to work on in the minors, it doesn't seem like a good idea to throw him out there and see if he sticks. 

 

I just don't get the misstrust in the current regime.  If they decide that Meija/Berrios aren't ready, why doubt that?  I still think you're letting Ryan's regime color how your evaluating this particular decision.  

 

I'm just mystified that people are actually advocating 'just throw them out there for a long time' as the best (or even a reasonable) path to development.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I guess I don't understand the need to have young starting pitching, if that young pitching would better develop in the minors, esp. given the regime/philosophy change.   It seems like an artificial requirement--a requirement without factoring in whether or not those pitchers are ready. 

 

The lack of young pitchers isn't due to not giving Meija and Berrios a chance, it's because the Twins haven't developed any young pitching (mediocre or otherwise) since or alongside Kyle Gibson.  Typically, we should have at least a few pre-arb and arb eligible starters to consider, but the Twins have none (they had May but he got hurt).   We shouldn't force Meija/Berrios into the rotation to some how make up for what is five-year development gap.

 

Again, you'll see plenty of Meija, Berrios and likely others, whether we roster Vogelsong or not.  

I see your point but the problem to me is that Vogelsong does not profile to be a marked improvement over a waiver wire claim, should things get to that point.

 

The guy has averaged just under an 85 ERA+ over the past three seasons and it's even worse if you include a fourth season.

 

Why do you put that guy in front of your young arms to open a season? Sure, it's nice to have that guy available mid-season but they're not hard to find, either.

 

And when you have an extremely promising young pitcher with over a season of AAA experience and another somewhat promising pitcher with over half a season of AAA experience, what does Vogelsong get you when all is said and done?

 

The Twins aren't lacking in pitching depth and they already have a rotation of veterans. Sure, that pitching depth is shaky but despite their warts, they're all less shaky than Ryan Vogelsong.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think that can work for some pitchers, but I'll defer to the judgment of the new regime to make that assessment on a case by case basis.  If a pitcher's failures can be foreseen, and has particular and achievable things to work on in the minors, it doesn't seem like a good idea to throw him out there and see if he sticks. 

 

I just don't get the misstrust in the current regime.  If they decide that Meija/Berrios aren't ready, why doubt that?  I still think you're letting Ryan's regime color how your evaluating this particular decision.  

 

I'm just mystified that people are actually advocating 'just throw them out there for a long time' as the best (or even a reasonable) path to development.  

 

Berrios dominated AAA last year. Meija, from what I read, is ready to be a 4/5 now. 

 

[PseudoSABR]

 

I see your point but the problem to me is that Vogelsong does not profile to be a marked improvement over a waiver wire claim, should things get to that point.

My assumption is that IF Vogelsong is rostered, the current regime does see him as a marked improvement over a waiver wire claim.  If they don't, then I don't believe he'll be rostered.  Again, I'll defer to the new regime, until their decisions show a pattern of not bearing out.

 

Berrios is promising, but he's also been not just mediocre but godawful in his stint last year (over 14 starts).  The most recent evidence we have to assess his readiness isn't favorable.  Throwing Berrios out there last year didn't work, why would it work this year?  He's either made adjustments or he's still adjusting, and I'll trust the new regime to assess that. 

 

Vogelsong just buys you Berrios'/Meija's development in a low-pressure environment with a new pitching/organizational philosophy.  Given the regime/philosophy change, there really might be more development to be had at the minor leagues, no?

[PseudoSABR]

 

Berrios dominated AAA last year. Meija, from what I read, is ready to be a 4/5 now. 

Berrios must have done extremely well in the majors then, no?  Can we stop looking at the minor league box score for development, please?  Clearly minor league success does not equal major league success; to wit: 8.02 ERA over 14 starts, with 5.4 BB per 9, and 7.4 Ks per 9.   

[Mike Sixel]

 

Berrios must have done extremely well in the majors then, no?  Can we stop looking at the minor league box score for development, please?  Clearly minor league success does not equal major league success; to wit: 8.02 ERA over 14 starts, with 5.4 BB per 9, and 7.4 Ks per 9.   

 

how will they know he's ready, then, if we can't look at what he does in AAA, and we can't promote him until he's ready? 

[PseudoSABR]

 

how will they know he's ready, then, if we can't look at what he does in AAA, and we can't promote him until he's ready? 

The Twins have more than the boxscore to work with.

 

For instance, if his fastball command is the reason for his struggles in the minors; his minor league coaches and the front office can make first-hand assessment of the command he has on his fastball--even though he might be dominating AAA because of other his attributes, tactics, etc.  

 

I imagine one of the most difficult things to teach someone is to concede that they need to work on aspect of their game in spite of the results they are getting.  After last years exposure at the major leagues, I imagine Berrios is receptive to improving--whether he has improved enough, I just don't think minor league results will tell us.   (Maybe data that's very specific might give us some indication, like what pitches are getting Ks, how often a certain pitch is in the zone, spin rates, etc.; I think this kind of data is just now becoming available in the minor leagues).

 

Because there's a new regime, I've got to trust their capacity to make that determination and develop processes with which Berrios can properly develop.  Otherwise, I'd be applying the cynicism that the Terry Ryan regime had rightfully earned.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Vogelsong buys Berrios a couple of weeks in the minors if he is still unusable when the season starts which is a very real possibility. No one ever said Vogelsong is a long term option.

Pat Dean could have bought Berrios a few more weeks in the minors, just the same as Vogelsong.

 

And I don't want this team aiming to "buy some minor league time for the youngsters" with the 5th starter spot right now, not with 4 veterans locked into the first 4 spots and 4 young starters with solid AAA experience ready to compete for that last spot. I want am open competition.

 

If Vogelsong is in that competition and happens to win it, fine, but that's not the assumption behind Brandon's roster projection here. The assumption is that it is Vogelsong's spot to lose at this point, and I don't like that at all.

[Danchat]

After seeing Mejia's 8 strikeout performance today, I'd like to see him as the #5 guy in the rotation.

[Willihammer]

Its not even about Berrios IMO. The front office has systematically contracted veteran leadership by bringing in Gimenez, Breslow, Stubbs, and Vogelsong. If we repeat 2015 I'll be the first to give them credit, but man, it would sure put my  mind at ease if there were some tangible upside in terms of production we could cling to. None of these guys has posted a positive WAR season since 2013, with the exception of Stubbs' 2014.

[drock2190]

That rotation...Besides Santana and maybe Gibson, none of those starters want to make me tune into their starts. 

[Doomtints]

 

Pat Dean could have bought Berrios a few more weeks in the minors, just the same as Vogelsong.

And I don't want this team aiming to "buy some minor league time for the youngsters" with the 5th starter spot right now, not with 4 veterans locked into the first 4 spots and 4 young starters with solid AAA experience ready to compete for that last spot. I want am open competition.

If Vogelsong is in that competition and happens to win it, fine, but that's not the assumption behind Brandon's roster projection here. The assumption is that it is Vogelsong's spot to lose at this point, and I don't like that at all.

You literally see no difference between Pat Dean's 6.28 ERA and Vogelsong's 4.79 ERA as a starter last year?

I mean, sure, toss Dean back out there if you want to lose 103 games again until the rookies are ready. They're sure to perform well when they arrive to a team already eliminated by May!

[Otto von Ballpark]

You literally see no difference between Pat Dean's 6.28 ERA and Vogelsong's 4.79 ERA as a starter last year?

There is no significant practical difference between those ERAs if your stated goal is buying a few weeks more development time for a pitcher in the minor leagues.

 

Frankly, looking to do that with a rotation spot well before the end of spring training is probably the best path toward more losing. If there were zero young guys ready for a look in the 5th starter spot, we should have been on the phone to add Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, or even Doug Fister who is still out there.

 

Edit: not saying I necessarily endorse adding one of those guys, but it makes more sense than Vogelsong. If Vogelsong's chief selling point is that is he is bad enough that we will be fully prepared to cut him later, we shouldn't be penciling him into a rotation spot.

[snepp]

Vogelsong just buys you Berrios'/Meija's development in a low-pressure environment with a new pitching/organizational philosophy.  Given the regime/philosophy change, there really might be more development to be had at the minor leagues, no?

 

I can get behind this. Maybe there are some things they can/want to do that would be easier to accomplish given some time in AAA.

 

I sure as hell don't want to see an entire lame duck veteran rotation, but if the new leadership believes that it will provide some long-term benefit I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

(for now anyway )

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I just don't get the misstrust in the current regime.  If they decide that Meija/Berrios aren't ready, why doubt that?  I still think you're letting Ryan's regime color how your evaluating this particular decision.  

I am with you most of the way, but I think people forget that a Vogelsong-Correia-Albers type of pitcher can be acquired for virtually nothing at any point in the season, if necessary. Vogelsong has a long MLB career behind him and is already under contract, we don't owe him anything more, and the talk coming from Molitor about Vogelsong making the team feels like more of the same old. 

 

If the front office decides Meija, Berrios, or Duffey (with his competitive FIP) shouldn't be starting in MLB, I am assuming a sensible explanation would be offered. 

[Doomtints]

 

There is no significant practical difference between those ERAs if your stated goal is buying a few weeks more development time for a pitcher in the minor leagues.

 

Hold on. So there is no difference between a blowout meltdown by a starting pitcher in every start and a typical #5 starter's ERA?

[jorgenswest]

Duffey was worse than the V and he does not have the excuse of being 40.

Besides, Duffey profiles to be a reliever. Makes sense to put the guy where he can succeed, no?

His peripherals were best among Twins starters last year. The peripherals are a much better predictor of future ERA than an ERA driven by an extremely high HR/FB ratio, a significant drop in double play rate without a drop in groundball rate and an extremely low LOB rate. Is it possible the combination of bad luck and awful defense have derailed his future as a Twin?

 

He is 26 years old with 36 major league starts and a career xFIP of 3.82 (xFIP- of 91). There are only 9 living pitchers through age 25 with a better xFIP- over the last two years. Even if the xFIP overstates his ability, he absolutely needs to be on the 40 and must be given every opportunity to be a part of this rotation.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I am with you most of the way, but I think people forget that a Vogelsong-Correia-Albers type of pitcher can be acquired for virtually nothing at any point in the season, if necessary. Vogelsong has a long MLB career behind him and is already under contract, we don't owe him anything more, and the talk coming from Molitor about Vogelsong making the team feels like more of the same old. 

 

If the front office decides Meija, Berrios, or Duffey (with his competitive FIP) shouldn't be starting in MLB, I am assuming a sensible explanation would be offered. 

Why not try a guy you like on the front end, when development time may actually be needed, rather than seeing who is available when crap hits the fan?

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on the FO offering explanation; it remains to be seen how forthright and detailed the new regime will be when talking about personnel.  

[Brandon Warne]

 

After seeing Mejia's 8 strikeout performance today, I'd like to see him as the #5 guy in the rotation.

 

I've seen a lot of this on Twitter. He didn't exactly face the top Cards lineup, did he?

 

I like him well enough and have no issue with it, just don't think today says much about him. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

That rotation...Besides Santana and maybe Gibson, none of those starters want to make me tune into their starts. 

 

The same was true of the Royals before they got Cueto in 2015. I'm not saying the Twins are copying that whatsoever, but the idea that a great rotation means much has faded a bit. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

His peripherals were best among Twins starters last year. The peripherals are a much better predictor of future ERA than an ERA driven by an extremely high HR/FB ratio, a significant drop in double play rate without a drop in groundball rate and an extremely low LOB rate. Is it possible the combination of bad luck and awful defense have derailed his future as a Twin?

He is 26 years old with 36 major league starts and a career xFIP of 3.82 (xFIP- of 91). There are only 9 living pitchers through age 25 with a better xFIP- over the last two years. Even if the xFIP overstates his ability, he absolutely needs to be on the 40 and must be given every opportunity to be a part of this rotation.

 

There's more than statistics to consider. Not having a third pitch is clearly an issue.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Why not try a guy you like on the front end, when development time may actually be needed, rather than seeing who is available when crap hits the fan?

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on the FO offering explanation; it remains to be seen how forthright and detailed the new regime will be when talking about personnel.

 

By sensible explanation, I am thinking just about anything besides "Vogelsong pleasantly surprised us." A guy like Vogelsong will be available if Berrios gets rocked again. Heck Vogelsong himself will be available. I like the Frank Viola example. If Berrios does struggle too much for too long, he goes to the bullpen or minors, not a big deal to me. Try him again at a later date. I also see Duffey getting another extended look soon. He pitched too well at the close of 2015.

 

I guess it comes down to a matter of opinion.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I've seen a lot of this on Twitter. He didn't exactly face the top Cards lineup, did he?

 

I like him well enough and have no issue with it, just don't think today says much about him.

 

Would you like his outing better if he gave up three home runs?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Would you like his outing better if he gave up three home runs?

 

No. I rather like Mejia.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hold on. So there is no difference between a blowout meltdown by a starting pitcher in every start and a typical #5 starter's ERA?

The difference in the ERAs you quoted was 1.49, over 9 innings. Over an optimistic 6 inning start, the difference would be 1 run. Is that a blowout meltdown? Now put those figures into your own stated goal of a short term player "buying some time for Berrios at AAA" and whatever difference to the Twins is pretty inconsequential.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Under my scenerio... Majia would be #6 and that leaves us with a Pat Dean type when you need that 7th and we will need a 7th and 8th (most likely) more before the season is out. With the May injury... we are already at #6 who just might be Vogelsong.

 

We all know you need more than 5 starters on your depth chart. But it shouldn't be ignored that the top 5 spots are pretty important at any given time because those are the only ones that can perform and/or learn at the MLB level at that moment.

 

And anyway, from your own admission, even after May's injury, the Twins SP depth chart could reasonably be considered to already be 7 deep without Vogelsong. (I might add Haley to make it 7.5)

 

Is it worth it, to give away one of the 5 most important and valuable spots, to a player with admittedly almost no upside or future, just to push the total length of the April depth chart from 7 to 8? Or 7.5 to 8.5? That doesn't sound like a good trade-off to me.

 

Also, while posters here have been quick to point out that the opening day starting 5 will not be the starting 5 throughout the season, the SP depth chart doesn't necessarily have to contract during the season either. While there will be some inevitable DL stints and such, Brock has been mentioning our AA SP prospects who could rise, and I might add a guy like Wheeler might be worth a look as much as Vogelsong with another solid campaign. Plus we saw the Angels turn one Hector Santiago into two MLB starters by season's end last year, we've seen guys like Tommy Milone go unclaimed in midseason waivers, and we also will have top waiver priority through April (but hopefully not beyond that ). All opportunities to help offset any inevitable midseason rotation losses.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I am plenty willing to cut the new front office some slack. I'm not railing against Castro, Gimenez, Belisle, and Breslow. But when we get down to the level (and up to the age) of Vogelsong, the idea that he's part of some cunning master plan feels a little too much like "magic beans."

[Riverbrian]

 

We all know you need more than 5 starters on your depth chart. But it shouldn't be ignored that the top 5 spots are pretty important at any given time because those are the only ones that can perform and/or learn at the MLB level at that moment.

And anyway, from your own admission, even after May's injury, the Twins SP depth chart could reasonably be considered to already be 7 deep without Vogelsong. (I might add Haley to make it 7.5)

Is it worth it, to give away one of the 5 most important and valuable spots, to a player with admittedly almost no upside or future, just to push the total length of the April depth chart from 7 to 8? Or 7.5 to 8.5? That doesn't sound like a good trade-off to me.

Also, while posters here have been quick to point out that the opening day starting 5 will not be the starting 5 throughout the season, the SP depth chart doesn't necessarily have to contract during the season either. While there will be some inevitable DL stints and such, Brock has been mentioning our AA SP prospects who could rise, and I might add a guy like Wheeler might be worth a look as much as Vogelsong with another solid campaign. Plus we saw the Angels turn one Hector Santiago into two MLB starters by season's end last year, we've seen guys like Tommy Milone go unclaimed in midseason waivers, and we also will have top waiver priority through April (but hopefully not beyond that ). All opportunities to help offset any inevitable midseason rotation losses.

 

I can't argue with any of this. Also... Admittedly... I have also been neglecting consideration of Haley when I'm laying out my personal depth chart and I probably shouldn't do that. I am also hopeful that Gonzalves or someone else can rise to option status later in the season. 

 

I'm just simply OK with Berrios... Duffey and Mejia starting in Rochester because I know it won't be long. 

 

As for Vogelsong... I can think of 20 other guys that I would have went with instead but I will allow Falvey/Lavine the benefit of the doubt since they are new and simply pray that if he doesn't work out... he's removed quickly and maybe then... one of Berrios or Duffey or Mejia will have produced some data to determine which one of them is best suited to replace him. 

 

Same goes for Hughes... Santiago and GIbson. 

 

I'm worrying less about who is starting the year and worrying more about who is allowed to finish the year. 

 

This may all be for nothing anyway... If Mejia pitches like he did today again. He may force his way into that 5th spot. 

 

 

[PseudoSABR]

 

I'm worrying less about who is starting the year and worrying more about who is allowed to finish the year. 

This.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm worrying less about who is starting the year and worrying more about who is allowed to finish the year.

So the Kubel and Bartlett reunion tour was just fine because neither finished the season? You'd be fine with optioning Buxton and starting Drew Stubbs in CF under the assumption he is not allowed to finish the year?

 

I get that sometimes circumstances force you to start someone you know isn't a long term option at a position. I just don't think we are anywhere near those circumstances here. We've got enough resources to have an open competition for that 5th starter spot.