This has been a disappointing offseason

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So a guy like Jeff Luhnow, who was in charge of St Louis' scouting before heading to Houston, had to dismiss all of his scouting notes and start from scratch in Houston? Even if they were his scouting reports and notes? 

Hard to say and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they weren't allowed to take anything with them when they left.

 

While under the employ of a company, all intellectual property generated is the property of said company.

 

When I left Polaris, I took the knowledge I learned with me. But had I taken a single line of code I generated while I was there, they could have sued my ass for it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Taking an algorithm to measure freely available baseball data is NOT theft. Taking internal data, internal scouting reports, and internal notes on players COULD be theft (but might not be if they were yours to begin with).

The Supreme Court weighed in on this in 2010. Algorithms are not patentable in and of themselves and are thus not intellectual property. Now, someone could invent a "baseball analytics machine" and the algorithms contained therein to make the machine work would be patentable. Did the Rangers or Indians have such a machine? 

A patent is something else entirely. Was the algorithm generated on company time by an employee? If yes, then taking a disc with that algorithm on it is definitely illegal.

 

Recreating that algorithm is something else. But recreating things takes time and it's not as if either Falvey or Levine have spent the past two months in front of a computer, coding complex algorithms to analyze data. They have employees to do that and they may need to go find those employees, which again takes time.

[Doomtints]

 

A patent is something else entirely. Was the algorithm generated on company time by an employee? If yes, then taking a disc with that algorithm on it is definitely illegal.

 

Recreating that algorithm is something else. But recreating things takes time and it's not as if either Falvey or Levine have spent the past two months in front of a computer, coding complex algorithms to analyze data. They have employees to do that and they may need to go find those employees, which again takes time.

 

Again, looking at their job titles, they should know the algorithms. They don't have to steal anything. We're not talking about a low or mid level employee switching organizations. We are talking about the guys who should have been dictating the algorithms in the first place. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well, except for 2B. And 1B. And at least two starters. And catcher. And a reliever or two.

They got younger at catcher. Mauer is Mauer, and I doubt Falvey will attempt to trade or cut him. Mauer is very good defender who probably won't be hitting in the middle of the order anymore. Kepler is a younger guy who might be hitting second or third, which does making the batting order slightly younger. Sophomore slump for Kepler is a concern.

 

I grant you the pitching staff is a different beast, but I have no problem if they want to study those guys more closely before making a move.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again, looking at their job titles, they should know the algorithms. They don't have to steal anything. We're not talking about a low or mid level employee switching organizations.

Sure, but they need to recreate those algorithms. It's not as if an algorithm is 50 characters of easily-remembered code that can be replicated in 15 minutes. And it's not as if they need just one algorithm, they probably need dozens.

 

And they walked into an analytics department that consisted of no more than four people, if I recall correctly, and those four people were probably already stretched thin with existing work. So, they need to assess their needs, find more people, and reassess the work currently in progress.

 

And the guy who makes those decisions has been on the job for less than three months while he's also trying to restructure scouting, coaching, analyze trades, etc.

[Twinfan & Dad]

My hope is that the young guys play everyday and don't get jacked around up and down like a yo-yo from AAA. Let them play and see what we have and that includes especially in the second half of the season our young pitchers. My one hope is that May is given the opportunity to start and Berrios is penciled in every 5th day. I am just happy we aren't trying to move a 265lbs infielder to a new position just because.

[davidc3915]

 

Again, we need to stop blaming today's front office for yesterday's front office decisions.

 

Falvey and Levine, flush with cash, decided to pay Santiago $8m in a free agent market so completely barren that it resembled a Cormac McCarthy novel. Is that really such a bad call? Even if Santiago bombs out horribly, you're out all of $8m. Big deal. If he's even mediocre, your team is slightly more competent than it would be otherwise and if your team is bad in July, you flip Hector for a middling prospect.

 

They were put in a bad situation by the previous front office. They made a decision based on that situation, one that won't make or break the team in any way. But the decision has modest upside.

 

Had they released Santiago, another team would have leapt at giving him a one year $6-10m contract. The free agent starting pitching market was that bad. Teams would have fallen over themselves to get Santiago because nothing else was available.

I realize I am being very overly optimistic here, but if Santiago is even decent, a contender desperate for pitching may deal for him.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I realize I am being very overly optimistic here, but if Santiago is even decent, a contender desperate for pitching may deal for him.  

The Twins won't get much for him - I'd say a C prospect is the ceiling - but yeah, they might be able to get something for Santiago.

[DaveW]

The Santiago trade still was beyond dumb, we compounded that dumb trade by overpaying for him in 2017.

 

Meanwhile Alex Meyer is on track to be a solid SP for years to come.

[nicksaviking]

 

Rumors?  How about a fact:

 

The Twins have allowed Berrios to play for Team Puerto Rico in the WBC.  That takes care of him until Match 13 (last game in Jalisco, MX), or if they move to the next round March 18 (in San Diego) or if they make it to the finals March 22 (in LA.)   Good luck winning a rotation spot in ST...

 

Good supporting evidence and I agree, he's likely bound for AAA again, but that's still not a fact.

[nicksaviking]

 

Again, looking at their job titles, they should know the algorithms. They don't have to steal anything. We're not talking about a low or mid level employee switching organizations. We are talking about the guys who should have been dictating the algorithms in the first place. 

 

What do algorithms matter? The Twins almost certainly didn't do any of the neuroscience or other proprietary testing that other clubs are doing to measure physical ability and mental acuity. If there no data points to analyze what are they supposed to evaluate? 

[beckmt]

I am still unhappy that Twins FO have not added any possible major league pitching.  A couple of decent relievers should be signed.  If they do not work out cut them, if they do flip them.  Is Tonkin still on this team??

[Rhino and Compass]

 

The Santiago trade still was beyond dumb, we compounded that dumb trade by overpaying for him in 2017.

Meanwhile Alex Meyer is on track to be a solid SP for years to come.

I think the killer is this: Santiago has been buoyed by having two of the best outfielders in the game behind him, while Nolasco spent a good deal of time with Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel and Miguel Sano in the corners. Nolasco's peripherals have always been better than Santiago's, and when he went out west to pitch for a team with a good defense behind him, well, his numbers outpaced what Santiago had done. It's obviously a small sample size, but I would be very surprised if Santiago outpitches Nolasco in 2017.

 

And then Antony still added a prospect.

 

I still like the Nunez/Abad deals, so I will give him a C- for his tenure.

[Linus]

You don't need an algorithm to know we need a lot of pitching help. So available starters aren't good, shore up the pen. I heard reusse interview Falvey and he said with improved defense and pitch framing their current pitching will be much improved. Made me shudder...

[mikelink45]

When they decided half way through the season to let TR go and get new FO ideas and energy they were giving the fans who have had six years of suffering some hope.  Letting TR go in the middle of the season meant to most of us that change was going to happen in 2016.  Well it didn't and even though the scribes all say that the FO should not be paying attention to the fans wishes and do good baseball it would do them well to note that they now have fewer fans to pay attention to.  I suspect the Cubs can now come to the stadium and get a home team feeling.  

 

We are reminded that baseball is a business.  Customers usually rank high in businesses (that's the theory) and the team and the vendors need us in the seats.  Which is my ranting way of saying the moves thus far give us little to be cheered about.  I am hoping something still happens in ST, but the FO may need to have some open dialogues with their fan base.

[Doomtints]

 

What do algorithms matter? The Twins almost certainly didn't do any of the neuroscience or other proprietary testing that other clubs are doing to measure physical ability and mental acuity. If there no data points to analyze what are they supposed to evaluate? 

 

 

...

 

 

All teams have access to the same data. There is no team in baseball that sends statisticians to every game to measure raw data a different way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mind if I cross post from the Forsythe thread? Seems more appropriate here.

 

Interesting that the Rays have kinda had the offseason that many hoped for the Twins.

 

They traded their 2B for a pretty good (albeit polarizing) MLB ready SP prospect.

 

They signed a controllable bounceback candidate for their bullpen in Shawn Tolleson.

 

They signed a catcher with upside in Wilson Ramos.

 

They signed a bounceback outfielder in Colby Rasmus.

 

And they also dealt a SP with only two years of control left (Smyly), although I'm not quite sure how to grade that return yet. This one seems more influenced by their financial limitations than the other moves.

 

The total lack of moves is more disappointing than just the Dozier situation.

[Mike Sixel]

Are there people arguing this hasn't been a disappointing off season so far? Just curious.

[nicksaviking]

 

All teams have access to the same data. There is no team in baseball that sends statisticians to every game to measure raw data a different way.

 

Most teams, at least the ones at the forefront of innovation are using more than in-game statistics.

 

http://nesn.com/2014/09/red-sox-among-mlb-teams-using-brain-training-in-scouting-development/

 

https://paw.princeton.edu/article/chris-moore-10-algorithms-field

 

http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2015/7/15/8952915/take-me-out-to-the-brain-game

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTQKQZ_QfMQ

 

I really doubt that the Twins have done any of this yet, so there would be no data on the players for the Twins or any team to evaluate.

[Vanimal46]

 

Most teams, at least the ones at the forefront of innovation are using more than in-game statistics.

 

http://nesn.com/2014/09/red-sox-among-mlb-teams-using-brain-training-in-scouting-development/

 

https://paw.princeton.edu/article/chris-moore-10-algorithms-field

 

http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2015/7/15/8952915/take-me-out-to-the-brain-game

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTQKQZ_QfMQ

 

I really doubt that the Twins have done any of this yet, so there would be no data on the players for the Twins or any team to evaluate.

 

Your links appear to be a big stretch IMO as to why Levine and Falvey don't have enough information to evaluate and make transactions right now. 

[Squirrel]

 

Are there people arguing this hasn't been a disappointing off season so far? Just curious.

I think it's more nuanced than that ... is it hugely or mildly disappointing? I think that's the debate and where people disagree.

[Doomtints]

 

Most teams, at least the ones at the forefront of innovation are using more than in-game statistics.

 

http://nesn.com/2014/09/red-sox-among-mlb-teams-using-brain-training-in-scouting-development/

 

https://paw.princeton.edu/article/chris-moore-10-algorithms-field

 

http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2015/7/15/8952915/take-me-out-to-the-brain-game

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTQKQZ_QfMQ

 

I really doubt that the Twins have done any of this yet, so there would be no data on the players for the Twins or any team to evaluate.

 

 

You can only do those things with players you have direct access to. You can't do this for players in other team systems. This would have had no impact on trade decisions.

 

This also isn't metrics, this is part of a training regimen.

[Thrylos]

 

When they decided half way through the season to let TR go and get new FO ideas and energy they were giving the fans who have had twenty six years of suffering some hope. 

 

FTFY

[HitInAPinch]

 

Are you sure that matters? Falvey and Levine, being in the positions that they are in, already know what numbers they want to look at. They likely have a spreadsheet in their hands with their value of every player in the league, and had it before they started with the Twins. They can teach their analytics department their methodology later on, if they have not taught it to them already.

 

"Here, use this set of algorithms" is a five minute conversation that would take a data guy less than a day to implement. 

Cleveland and Texas letting Falvey and Levine walk away with their league-wide scouting and other reports.  Absolutely not.   And I say that in a nice way    ;-)

[HitInAPinch]

 

So a guy like Jeff Luhnow, who was in charge of St Louis' scouting before heading to Houston, had to dismiss all of his scouting notes and start from scratch in Houston? Even if they were his scouting reports and notes? 

I would expect a professional organization have a confidentiality agreement in place.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Are there people arguing this hasn't been a disappointing off season so far? Just curious.

Umm, yes and no?? 

 

Yes, I'm disappointed in a Dozier trade not going through.  Could have used a couple/few good, new arms.  I'm not really all that impressed by the starters the Twins have in the MiLB for the near future. 

For Pete's sake, they were changing Berrios' windup in September!

 

That and the whole, you know, no back to back winning season since 2010, the 3rd season in a row!

 

But, I know what the Twins situation is:

 

1. The new FO is a bit behind on things:  i.e.  Cleveland stretching out their season and Falvey and Levine interviewing their FO, coaching and development staff during the Winter meetings.
2. I'm pretty confident that the former players whom Falvey signed to special-project-somethings will  could help prevent the young hitters from completely wilting. 
3. Starting pitching.  Ummm, after seeing the late season work with Berrios, I can't help to worry what else can we expect for any other starter called up.
4. OTOH, I like what we saw from the young RP's last year.  A better set of SP's would be very helpful.   Those young RP's were really overworked.
5. And this:  http://www.startribune.com/byron-buxton-embracing-simplified-approach-to-2017-twins-season/411603295/

So, could this year be a real train wreck?  Maybe, but I kinda doubt it.  Give me:

1. A nice learning curve from Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Sano at the plate and in the field. 
2. Give me a nice return on a fully built and functional new Baseball Research, headed by Jack Goin.
3. A nice learning curve from the current young RP's at the MLB level and some more of those young, hard throws from the Twins MiLB.
4. And, finally, when everything has been put in place, I can't wait to see what Falvey and Levine really have up their sleaves.

Yep, I'm a baseball romantic.  So is the whole InAPinch family.  Except for SwingAndaMISSInAPinch.  He's a putz.

[DaveW]

To me the question isn't if it has been a mildly disappointing off season or a larger disappointing offseason.

It has most definitely IMO been a huge disappointment because:

 

1. The Twins haven't improved over their 2016 team by any real measure. At best Castro adds 1 win over Suzuki, but more than likely it's closer to a wash.

 

2. The Twins haven't improved their chances in 2018, 2019, 2020 as well. Dozier wasn't traded as we all know, but nobody else has been moved as well. The starting pitching is a freaking disaster zone and continues to be one, the major league rotation is a mess. Santana is the only one who can be counted on to produce more than a fringe #5 pitcher. Berrios has potential but is still very raw, Gibson would have pitched himself out of any other rotation in baseball last year, Hughes is coming off a serious injury, Santiago was terrible, Duffey is no longer a real option. May is now getting put back in the rotation after we wasted 1.5 years of his development in the pen etc. Even worst, the minors are pretty bare when it comes to pitching. Dozier was obviously our best bet to fix this problem, but there is no reason why other guys couldn't have been dealt as well to help address this need. Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, Kintzler, Vargas, Escobar, all could help bring back pitching help in one way or another potentially.

 

So thus the question is: Is the front office to blame for this disappointment or is it more "the market"

I think it's 50/50 as of now.  If nothing else significant happens before opening day? 80/20.

[Doomtints]

 

Cleveland and Texas letting Falvey and Levine walk away with their league-wide scouting and other reports.  Absolutely not.   And I say that in a nice way    ;-)

 

No one said otherwise.

[Rosterman]

Hey, but we are bringing back Yohan Pino for chance number three (shades of Carlos Pulido).

 

I'm still waiting to see where Logan Darnell and James Beresford end up!

[DaveW]

Arcia is going to be available soon again as well.