This has been a disappointing offseason

[Doomtints]

Sorry to harsh any Tuesday morning buzzes, but here's a quick reality check.

 

Twins GMs since 2008, ranked:

 

1) Rob Antony

2) Bill Smith

3) Thad Levine*

4) Terry Ryan

 

*Still has time to improve (or to get worse).

 

And even this is generous. Levine and Ryan are probably tied.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How can anyone feel positive about a team that is willing to trade for AND pay 8m to Hector Santiago?

Again, we need to stop blaming today's front office for yesterday's front office decisions.

 

Falvey and Levine, flush with cash, decided to pay Santiago $8m in a free agent market so completely barren that it resembled a Cormac McCarthy novel. Is that really such a bad call? Even if Santiago bombs out horribly, you're out all of $8m. Big deal. If he's even mediocre, your team is slightly more competent than it would be otherwise and if your team is bad in July, you flip Hector for a middling prospect.

 

They were put in a bad situation by the previous front office. They made a decision based on that situation, one that won't make or break the team in any way. But the decision has modest upside.

 

Had they released Santiago, another team would have leapt at giving him a one year $6-10m contract. The free agent starting pitching market was that bad. Teams would have fallen over themselves to get Santiago because nothing else was available.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Valid point, the Twins are not bursting with talent up and down the roster, but I think the starting nine is set and they are mostly pretty good and pretty young.

 

Agreed, other than SS and LF and DH and 1B, I'm good with the hitters (frankly, Sano is DH or 1B, so maybe 3B)....but even those position are ok for now. The SP? Ugh. The RP, probably more ugh.

 

I find it funny that people say the sophomore slump exists, but they can't wait to see how much better Kepler will be this year....

[Vanimal46]

 

Robbie Grossman is 27 years old with a career OPS+ of 102 and a 2016 OPS+ of 126. Yeah, he's a butcher in the field but he's not the type of guy you discard without a second thought. On the other hand, a bad start to 2017 and the Twins shouldn't hesitate to cut/demote him, either.

Falvey did discard him without a second thought last year.... And picked up someone else who did better for their team, Brandon Guyer. I think we saw peak offensive performance from Grossman last year, and he still provided very little value for the team. 

 

[mazeville]

 

The Twins are extremely young, Mike. Except for 2B, it's almost harder to get younger. I don't think Hughes actually makes the rotation this season and at least one of Grossman or Santana is cut in spring, which true some of those things are yet to be seen.

 

Well, except for 2B. And 1B. And at least two starters. And catcher. And a reliever or two.

[Doomtints]

 

I don't buy the whole they are just getting their feet wet idea. So far the new front office has done nothing and there are no excuses.

 

Yep. What's the point in an analytics department if they can't instantly put a value on their assets. There is no feet wetting going on here.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Agreed, other than SS and LF and DH and 1B, I'm good with the hitters (frankly, Sano is DH or 1B, so maybe 3B)....but even those position are ok for now. The SP? Ugh. The RP, probably more ugh.

 

I find it funny that people say the sophomore slump exists, but they can't wait to see how much better Kepler will be this year....

 

I'm just curious if you noticed you said you're okay with the hitters except for nearly half of them.

 

...and 3 of those are traditionally offense-oriented positions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Falvey did discard him without a second thought last year.... And picked up someone else who did better for their team, Brandon Guyer. I think we saw peak offensive performance from Grossman last year, and he still provided very little value for the team. 

It's possible we saw peak performance from Grossman last season... But what's the real harm in spending 4-6 weeks finding out if that was the case?

 

Keeping Grossman and Santiago are the kinds of moves bad teams in evaluation mode should make. If they suck, kick 'em to the curb in May or June. If they don't suck, flip them in July for whatever you can get.

 

In my opinion, keeping Grossman was a no-brainer for a team coming off a 59 win season.

 

Keeping Danny Santana is far more questionable, as he has neither a position nor any recent performance worth mentioning.

[nicksaviking]

 

Yep. What's the point in an analytics department if they can't instantly put a value on their assets. There is no feet wetting going on here.

 

How do you know they haven't?

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

As for Dozier not being dealt, and Santana not being dealt, well, EVERY OTHER rebuilding team has found a way to get younger talent into their organization, every. Single. One.

Every team that has rebuilt has traded vets for prospects.  EVERY SINGLE ONE.  Including the Twins.  That doesn't mean those teams traded EVERY SINGLE Veteran. 

 

Twins have traded off Morneau, Doumit, Slowey, Liriano, Span, Revere, Nunez, Herrman, Buetera etc.  What vets have the Twins just let walk away for nothing?  Plouffe, Suzuki, Pelfrey etc.   Twins have had (arguably) three strong trade chips since 2012 - Dozier, Span and Perkins.  They traded Span in a 1:1 for a top RH pitching prospect that failed.  They kept Perkins and they have two years to move Dozier.  Clearly they tried to move Dozier but didn't get a good offer. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yep. What's the point in an analytics department if they can't instantly put a value on their assets. There is no feet wetting going on here.

Falvey and Levine currently have an analytics department they did not create nor one they've had time to overhaul.

 

And that's the point many of us are making. They inherited an organization woefully behind the times and have been on the job for all of two months. We have no idea what state analytics is in today, the ultimate goals for the analytics department, or a timeline when Falvey and Levine feel they'll reach that goal.

[mazeville]

 

Again, we need to stop blaming today's front office for yesterday's front office decisions.

 

Falvey and Levine, flush with cash, decided to pay Santiago $8m in a free agent market so completely barren that it resembled a Cormac McCarthy novel. Is that really such a bad call? Even if Santiago bombs out horribly, you're out all of $8m. Big deal. If he's even mediocre, your team is slightly more competent than it would be otherwise and if your team is bad in July, you flip Hector for a middling prospect.

 

They were put in a bad situation by the previous front office. They made a decision based on that situation, one that won't make or break the team in any way. But the decision has modest upside.

 

Had they released Santiago, another team would have leapt at giving him a one year $6-10m contract. That free agent starting pitching market was that bad. Teams would have fallen over themselves to get Santiago because nothing else was available.

 

I don't blame the current front office for past management decisions.

 

But Twins fans can't be blamed for impatience, regardless of what happens. We wanted to see things get done to build for the future. 

 

Also, I agree with the idea of paying Santiago. Can't hurt having more pitching and a one-year contract isn't a problem.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's possible we saw peak performance from Grossman last season... But what's the real harm in spending 4-6 weeks finding out if that was the case?

 

Keeping Grossman and Santiago are the kinds of moves bad teams in evaluation mode should make. If they suck, kick 'em to the curb in May or June. If they don't suck, flip them in July for whatever you can get.

 

In my opinion, keeping Grossman was a no-brainer for a team coming off a 59 win season.

 

Keeping Danny Santana is far more questionable, as he has neither a position nor any recent performance worth mentioning.

I'd prefer not spending 4-6 weeks watching a butcher in the OF, but whatever. I do agree with you that keeping Danny Santana is worse. He needs to be cut yesterday. 

[mazeville]

 

Sorry to harsh any Tuesday morning buzzes, but here's a quick reality check.

 

Twins GMs since 2008, ranked:

 

1) Rob Antony

2) Bill Smith

3) Thad Levine*

4) Terry Ryan

 

*Still has time to improve (or to get worse).

 

And even this is generous. Levine and Ryan are probably tied.

 

Oh, good gravy no. Smith did a couple of good things - notably signing Sano, for which he gets almost no credit.

 

But his trades were so horribly, inexplicably bad that he is dead last on this ranking. 

[Teddy]

 

What is 2017? I'm not quite sure how I feel about the decision but it appears Falvey and Levine feel it's an evaluation year. Throw the kids out there, see what you have in them. Pick up a catcher to help your beleaguered pitching staff and call it a day. At least we'll get to see all the players we've been champing at the bit to see for years with all the good and bad that comes with throwing a very young roster on the field.

 

While we all want to see major progress toward being an every-year playoff contender, Rome wasn't built in a day, and Falvine have a lot to clean up. I fully agree with Brock's point about calling it a day (for now) and letting the kids play. Frankly, I think it makes a lot of sense for them to evaluate the coaching staff at the same time as the players until July 31, and then start to make some moves. And I'm OK with a few months of continued rough going if that means that in two years, we're looking at a roster and coaching staff of the caliber of the 2016 Cubs and Indians.

[Rhino and Compass]

 

Again, we need to stop blaming today's front office for yesterday's front office decisions.

 

Falvey and Levine, flush with cash, decided to pay Santiago $8m in a free agent market so completely barren that it resembled a Cormac McCarthy novel. Is that really such a bad call? Even if Santiago bombs out horribly, you're out all of $8m. Big deal. If he's even mediocre, your team is slightly more competent than it would be otherwise and if your team is bad in July, you flip Hector for a middling prospect.

 

They were put in a bad situation by the previous front office. They made a decision based on that situation, one that won't make or break the team in any way. But the decision has modest upside.

 

Had they released Santiago, another team would have leapt at giving him a one year $6-10m contract. That free agent starting pitching market was that bad. Teams would have fallen over themselves to get Santiago because nothing else was available.

 

I do not blame any of this on the new FO, but that doesn't mean I can't be disappointed. I think the only tangible thing I can say that I disagree with those two on (and you, it sounds like) is their evaluation of Santiago. I would rather see Mejia make the roster ahead of Santiago, and start in the rotation. This is a whole other can of worms, but looking at their periphs, I think the Twins would be better off with Nolasco than Santiago. In short, Santiago is so bad, IMO, that he was not even worth the 8m in a bad market, as he is a less desirable option than anything else the Twins have.

 

If there are other teams that would value Santiago at 8m/yr, I hope that he is being marketed to those teams. I accept that there is probably more to the plan that I just don't know about, and I hope that the FO can execute it.

 

I really don't like Hector (as a pitcher, I'm sure he's very nice)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd prefer not spending 4-6 weeks watching a butcher in the OF, but whatever. I do agree with you that keeping Danny Santana is worse. He needs to be cut yesterday. 

I agree Santana needs to be cut but there's really no point in doing it right now. He can play with the team through March, giving the front office more time to evaluate, then they can make a decision.

 

As for Grossman, he's an absolute butcher in the field but he mashed LHP last season.

 

Do you know what other Twins outfielder mashed LHP last season? Absolutely no one.

 

It was so bad that both Rosario and Kepler had an OPS under .600 against lefties. Only Buxton held his own with a .735 OPS against southpaws and there is zero positional overlap between Buxton and Grossman.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I do not blame any of this on the new FO, but that doesn't mean I can't be disappointed. I think the only tangible thing I can say that I disagree with those two on (and you, it sounds like) is their evaluation of Santiago. I would rather see Mejia make the roster ahead of Santiago, and start in the rotation. This is a whole other can of worms, but looking at their periphs, I think the Twins would be better off with Nolasco than Santiago. In short, Santiago is so bad, IMO, that he was not even worth the 8m in a bad market, as he is a less desirable option than anything else the Twins have.

 

If there are other teams that would value Santiago at 8m/yr, I hope that he is being marketed to those teams. I accept that there is probably more to the plan that I just don't know about, and I hope that the FO can execute it.

 

I really don't like Hector (as a pitcher, I'm sure he's very nice)

What happens if Meija isn't ready? What happens if one or two starters go down in March or April? What happens if Berrios can't find the strike zone again?

 

In a rotation full of question marks, keeping another mediocre arm when the money would be burned by ownership anyway isn't a bad decision.

 

The true test of this front office was not the retention of guys like Santiago and Grossman. Those were fine decisions. The true test of this front office is whether they'll throw those guys off the roster when it's apparent they don't belong in major league baseball.

 

That was the issue with the previous front office. Teams sign/acquire/retain those types of players all the time, even well-run teams.

 

But the well-run teams give those players the hook in May or early June, not August or never.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins may also not want to break camp with rookies and burn the extra year of service time.

[Rhino and Compass]

 

What happens if Meija isn't ready? What happens if one or two starters go down in March or April? What happens if Berrios can't find the strike zone again?

 

In a rotation full of question marks, keeping another mediocre arm when the money would be burned by ownership anyway isn't a bad decision.

 

The true test of this front office was not the retention of guys like Santiago and Grossman. Those were fine decisions. The true test of this front office is whether they'll throw those guys off the roster when it's apparent they don't belong in major league baseball.

 

That was the issue with the previous front office. Teams sign/acquire/retain those types of players all the time, even well-run teams.

 

But the well-run teams give those players the hook in May or early June, not August or never.

 

Sure, we'll see. I'm willing to be patient, but I just wanted to get my diatribe against Santiago off my chest If the Twins can't or won't supplant him by the end of May, then something is seriously wrong.

 

I don't have a problem with Grossman. Even if he is a bad fielder, according to my eye, he works harder than most of the other position players. Leading by example and all that. For a team this young, I think that could be a good thing.

[Doomtints]

 

How do you know they haven't?

 

I'm strongly implying that they DID.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm just curious if you noticed you said you're okay with the hitters except for nearly half of them.

 

...and 3 of those are traditionally offense-oriented positions.

 

I noticed, yes.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins may also not want to break camp with rookies and burn the extra year of service time.

 

No one should be worried about service time for relief pitchers, should they? Other than that, we are talking about Berrios, how long would he have to stay down not to burn a year.

[Doomtints]

 

Falvey and Levine currently have an analytics department they did not create nor one they've had time to overhaul.

 

And that's the point many of us are making. They inherited an organization woefully behind the times and have been on the job for all of two months. We have no idea what state analytics is in today, the ultimate goals for the analytics department, or a timeline when Falvey and Levine feel they'll reach that goal.

 

Are you sure that matters? Falvey and Levine, being in the positions that they are in, already know what numbers they want to look at. They likely have a spreadsheet in their hands with their value of every player in the league, and had it before they started with the Twins. They can teach their analytics department their methodology later on, if they have not taught it to them already.

 

"Here, use this set of algorithms" is a five minute conversation that would take a data guy less than a day to implement. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are you sure that matters? Falvey and Levine, being in the positions that they are in, already know what numbers they want to look at. They likely have a spreadsheet in their hands with their value of every player in the league, and had it before they started with the Twins. They can teach their analytics department their methodology later on, if they have not taught it to them already.

 

"Here, use this set of algorithms" is a five minute conversation that would take a data guy less than a day to implement. 

 

No, no way. Sorry, that's just totally unfair.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are you sure that matters? Falvey and Levine, being in the positions that they are in, already know what numbers they want to look at. They likely have a spreadsheet in their hands with their value of every player in the league, and had it before they started. They can teach their analytics department their methodology later on.

Nope, not sure it matters. Not sure it doesn't, either.

 

The real question comes from asking how much teams rely on publicly-available data versus how much they rely on self-generated data.

 

It's not as if Falvey or Levine could take that self-generated data from their previous clubs. That'd be theft. Even mirroring the processes used by their previous clubs could put them in hot water. And they certainly haven't had the time to fully flesh out the Twins analytics system to generate the same amount of specialized data they had in Texas or Cleveland.

 

But if they feel comfortable relying on publicly-related data, it's not an issue.

[drivlikejehu]

 

No one should be worried about service time for relief pitchers, should they? Other than that, we are talking about Berrios, how long would he have to stay down not to burn a year.

 

I guess it's really just Mejia. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Nope, not sure it matters. Not sure it doesn't, either.

 

The real question comes from asking how much teams rely on publicly-available data versus how much they rely on self-generated data.

 

It's not as if Falvey or Levine could take that self-generated data from their previous clubs. That'd be theft. Even mirroring the processes used by their previous clubs could put them in hot water. And they certainly haven't had the time to fully flesh out the Twins analytics system to generate the same amount of specialized data they had in Texas or Cleveland.

 

But if they feel comfortable relying on publicly-related data, it's not an issue.

So a guy like Jeff Luhnow, who was in charge of St Louis' scouting before heading to Houston, had to dismiss all of his scouting notes and start from scratch in Houston? Even if they were his scouting reports and notes? 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 

We've heard rumors Berrios may start the season in the minors but I'm not one to put much stock in rumors. I'll save my outrage for the actual decision, if/when it comes.

 

Rumors?  How about a fact:

 

The Twins have allowed Berrios to play for Team Puerto Rico in the WBC.  That takes care of him until Match 13 (last game in Jalisco, MX), or if they move to the next round March 18 (in San Diego) or if they make it to the finals March 22 (in LA.)   Good luck winning a rotation spot in ST...

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

Nope, not sure it matters. Not sure it doesn't, either.

 

The real question comes from asking how much teams rely on publicly-available data versus how much they rely on self-generated data.

 

It's not as if Falvey or Levine could take that self-generated data from their previous clubs. That'd be theft. Even mirroring the processes used by their previous clubs could put them in hot water. And they certainly haven't had the time to fully flesh out the Twins analytics system to generate the same amount of specialized data they had in Texas or Cleveland.

 

But if they feel comfortable relying on publicly-related data, it's not an issue.

 

Taking an algorithm to measure freely available baseball data is NOT theft. Taking internal data, internal scouting reports, and internal notes on players COULD be theft (but might not be if they were yours to begin with or were otherwise available or common knowledge).

The Supreme Court weighed in on this in 2010. Algorithms are not patentable in and of themselves and are thus not intellectual property. Now, someone could invent a "baseball analytics machine" and the algorithms contained therein to make the machine work would be patentable. Did the Rangers or Indians have such a machine? 

If Falvey/Levine have not met with their analytics staff and said "here is what I want to see" they're not suitable for their jobs. The Twins have the data.