This has been a disappointing offseason

[mazeville]

I don't know what I expected coming into the Twins offseason, but have to admit that what's happened so far wasn't it.

 

At this particular point, it's looking much like the team that put together a 103-loss season in 2016 will be returning in 2017. The pitching staff will be largely the same. The lineup will be largely the same. The one big change on the field was the signing of Jason Castro. Any other deals have largely been fringe, scrap-heap guys.

 

Brian Dozier is still with the team, and will be unless some mysterious trading partner emerges between now and Spring Training -- which is unlikely, given that the Los Angeles Dodgers have traded for Logan Forsythe. Ervin Santana, who could fetch a prospect or two, is also with the team. As far as we know, relatively few other potential trading chips have been offered in any deals. 

 

On top of that, we have mostly the same managing staff that guided this team to that 103-loss season.

 

Now, I get it. If the Dodgers did indeed offer little more than Jose DeLeon for Brian Dozier, there is no way the Twins should have done that deal. 

 

I also get that the Twins are more likely to get strong offers for someone like Santana at the trade deadline, when everybody is looking for pitching. 

 

And every part of my brain is telling me to be patient. After all, the new regime just got started. They are absolutely right to focus on building the front office staff now, and take some time to understand what kind of assets they have.

 

Yet fans like to see movement. We like to see teams trade for players that will take them to the playoffs. Barring that, we'd like to see trade get made that could speed up the rebuilding process. Failing to trade Dozier potentially hurts that rebuilding process. Failing to trade Santana during an offseason in which teams were overpaying for starters also potentially hurts that rebuilding process. Neither player is likely to play a big role in this team's next playoff run. 

 

It's been tiring seeing this team lose so much, year after year, only to watch little get done in the offseason to change the on-field product.

 

So, barring some unforeseen trade or some other move to change the roster, it's difficult to say this offseason has been anything but a disappointment. 

[DaveW]

Yeah. I give it an D- so far.

Castro is meh, and was signed for too many years.

 

And nothing else happened to improve the team in 2017...2018...2019....2020

 

I guess there is still time to make a splash, just color me skeptical. At least they didn't go out and sign another DH type lol!

[gunnarthor]

Well, as many here noted constantly when we were winning in 2015, we weren't an 83 win team.  Baseruns was often used to tell us we were really a 75 win team.  So, it's probably a fair reminder that the Twins weren't a 103 loss team last year.  Rather, they were a 71-91 team. 

 

I share your concern about Molitor but I think the FO has taken steps to check him with their FO coach in the dug out and they haven't extended him.  He's a lame duck manager.  The new FO seems to have made several moves inside the org including setting a new draft guru and increasing Jack Goins department.

 

Yes, not a lot has been done but they did sign the catcher they wanted and the offense is more or less set and it's worth remembering that the Twins aren't a bad team overall - they have a nice offensive nucleus in place - but the pitching ....

 

Pitching is the problem and they can improve that through natural regression, improved pitch framing, improved defense.  They've already removed 46 starts from last years team and if they move Duffey to the pen for May, that's another 26 starts removed.  I'm not sure how much the defense is improved - they have some question marks on the left side of the infield and possibly in RF but they should probably be better than Nunez/Santana/Grossman, if nothing else.

 

At the end of the day, the Twins are probably in wait and see mode with their youngsters as the new FO gets an understanding of the system and the manager. 

[USAFChief]

Great post, mazeville. I agree with every word. And at this point, it's hard to see how the offseason improves.

[Thrylos]

2017 is going to be an assessment season.  From the Front Office to the manager and coaches at every stage in the organization to the players.

 

To tell you the truth, I am probably more disappointed that the front office people and the player development people who brought the Twins into this mess, esp. as far as pitching goes, are still with the Twins than Dozier.   And I really dislike the thought that the Twins might start the season with Dozier...

[Platoon]

Not only is Molitor a lame duck, but so is Dozier. The team has done everything but walk into a bar, rolled up their shirt sleeve and asked, "wanna buy a second baseman"? Dozier will spend the season looking like a free agent on the last year of a deal we won't renew.

[Twinfan & Dad]

I agree with you and am also dissappointed but I am also much more optimistic about the future with Falvey and Co in charge. In regards to Dozier and Santana you don't make trades just for sake of making the trade. I continue to say Santana is a solid number 3 pitcher and Dozier is what he is streaky, packs a punch and average defensively. IMO, These two players haven't been traded because the new leadership hasn't received an offer that they feel is fair value. These are bright young minds and I for one believe that changes will be made but only when they receive offers that they feel make sense.

[mazeville]

 

2017 is going to be an assessment season.  From the Front Office to the manager and coaches at every stage in the organization to the players.

 

To tell you the truth, I am probably more disappointed that the front office people and the player development people who brought the Twins into this mess, esp. as far as pitching goes, are still with the Twins than Dozier.   And I really dislike the thought that the Twins might start the season with Dozier...

 

I agree with that. The previous front office felt they could contend in 2016 with almost no improvements whatsoever and not only did they not contend, they completely collapsed. 

 

And I'm giving the Falvine FO the benefit of the doubt. I sincerely hope they make the changes necessary to get the front office up to speed with modern data and scouting practices. But man, just Jason Castro and that's it? What a disappointment.

[wsnydes]

I agree with this post in its entirety.  I agree that the new FO is just getting their feet wet and figuring out what they have for assets within the system.  I didn't expect a ton of activity this offseason, but I expected more than what we've seen so far.  I really don't like that Dozier is likely to start the season on the roster.  I, like many, saw a Dozier trade the only reasonable way to bring in some pitching.  Molitor is still around.  I wouldn't have minded dealing one of the 1B/DH options to free up some roster flexibility.  I don't know how I can describe this offseason as anything other than a disappointment as well.  

 

Recklessness and rash decision making are more dangerous options, but I think it's going to be awfully difficult to sell this team given the lack of improvement.  Organic improvement might appease those following closely, but the masses won't really notice.  Judging by the information in the emails to the season ticket holders, that base has been significantly depleted and they're scrambling for ways to bring in more revenue.  If the Wild and Wolves make the playoffs, the interest in this team could be nonexistent before it even starts.

[Craig Arko]

Even crappy baseball will be a welcome respite from this off season.

[Vanimal46]

Extremely disappointing and frustrating to say the least.... It's hard to justify people renewing season tickets, MLB.tv subscriptions, etc. when it's essentially the same roster heading into 2017. Good luck to the season ticket sales people getting people on board this year...

http://ak-hdl.buzzfed.com/static/2015-08/12/19/enhanced/webdr10/anigif_enhanced-2400-1439421440-3.gif

[Linus]

I don't buy the whole they are just getting their feet wet idea. So far the new front office has done nothing and there are no excuses.

[nicksaviking]

 

2017 is going to be an assessment season.  From the Front Office to the manager and coaches at every stage in the organization to the players.

 

Yes this might be it despite the fans disappointment that wholesale changes won't occur. Falvey can't yet choose his own field manager and we might also have to consider that the previous regime was so far behind the times in modernizing evaluation, instruction and development tools that the new guys actually don't know what the players in the system are capable of. As much as I don't like it, perhaps they do feel they need a season to do an in depth analysis of what can be fixed and what has to be replaced.

 

You take your car to a mechanic and tell him the transmission's going out, he's not just going to replace it, he's going to want to check it out first, maybe it can be rebuilt instead. Or maybe it's not actually the transmission.

 

Not that I'm not completely disappointed.

[wavedog]

I am also dissapointed in the offseason although it is not over yet.  I would also give it a D-   Signing Castro was a good start but we have done nothing else.  Other needs I thought we needed were a RH outfielder that can field to platoon with Rosario and Kepler  (Rajai Davis/Crisp).    A utility infielder to backup 3B/SS (Aybar/Drew) and an experienced bullpen arm (Storen/Feliz).  Signings that would not take away from developing our younger players but providing good experienced depth.   Absent the signings we have to hope Grossman rediscovers his glove and/or Polanco can turn into a superutility stud.   We also have to hope the youngsters all take a step up this year with the help of the former Twins advisors we brought in and veterans Mauer, Dozier and Santana don't drop off (which could be likely) to avoid a repeat of last years disaster. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's hard not to be let down by this offseason but I have a few counterpoints:

 

1. This free agent class was horrible everywhere the Twins needed help, except catcher. And they got a catcher. The area they truly needed help, starting pitching, was as barren a landscape as I've seen in the past two decades.

 

2. Falvey and Levine have a lot to do. That doesn't excuse them from not being at least a little bit more active but if they had to make opportunity cost decisions between revamping analytics/scouting and trading/signing players, I'd prefer they focus hard on the former at the expense of the latter this offseason.

 

3. Brian Dozier is the biggest let down and while I'm disappointed, I can't cast final judgment on the decision until we know the actual offer from the Dodgers. I'm disappointed but not ready to crucify the front office without that information.

 

4. We're going to finally get to see the kids play in 2017 and it's way overdue. If we see anything less than four months of Berrios, May, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, and Polanco, I consider that a failure.

 

5. What is 2017? I'm not quite sure how I feel about the decision but it appears Falvey and Levine feel it's an evaluation year. Throw the kids out there, see what you have in them. Pick up a catcher to help your beleaguered pitching staff and call it a day. At least we'll get to see all the players we've been champing at the bit to see for years with all the good and bad that comes with throwing a very young roster on the field.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Well, as many here noted constantly when we were winning in 2015, we weren't an 83 win team.  Baseruns was often used to tell us we were really a 75 win team.  So, it's probably a fair reminder that the Twins weren't a 103 loss team last year.  Rather, they were a 71-91 team. 

 

I share your concern about Molitor but I think the FO has taken steps to check him with their FO coach in the dug out and they haven't extended him.  He's a lame duck manager.  The new FO seems to have made several moves inside the org including setting a new draft guru and increasing Jack Goins department.

 

Yes, not a lot has been done but they did sign the catcher they wanted and the offense is more or less set and it's worth remembering that the Twins aren't a bad team overall - they have a nice offensive nucleus in place - but the pitching ....

 

Pitching is the problem and they can improve that through natural regression, improved pitch framing, improved defense.  They've already removed 46 starts from last years team and if they move Duffey to the pen for May, that's another 26 starts removed.  I'm not sure how much the defense is improved - they have some question marks on the left side of the infield and possibly in RF but they should probably be better than Nunez/Santana/Grossman, if nothing else.

 

At the end of the day, the Twins are probably in wait and see mode with their youngsters as the new FO gets an understanding of the system and the manager. 

 

I'm curious as to how accurate baseruns tends to be. Is it one of those estimator stats that squishes things to the middle, thus no great/terrible team is ever as great/terrible as their record indicates?

 

I'm more inclined to believe that in 2015 we considerably overshot based on having a losing record in all but one scorching hot month of the season. I'm also inclined to believe we really weren't much better than the 103 loss team we were last year. I don't see how we pick up 12 wins based on luck/regression. This team wasn't that unlucky, they just didn't do much well except occasionally string a whole bunch of hitting together. Their one potential strength, hitting, still has a huge streakiness factor to it due to the high strikeout rates from nearly all the key spots in the lineup. Defense won't be much better this year, outfield should be better without Sano but the infield is going to be an adventure (including that shiny new catcher who doesn't grade out well beyond pitch framing).

 

I guess I'm just not one to expect improvement out of nowhere. It's not like we had a bunch of well-established proven vets that had off years (where you'd expect some regression). The pitching outside of Santana was just flat-out bad and filled with never-has-beens. Berrios is the only one I'd expect much improvement out of, and even that isn't a sure thing until we know if it was just rookie nerves/adjustments or if he's fatally flawed right now. I guess Santiago offers some hope, assuming the Twins don't break him. I'd expect progression from a few of the young hitters, but that won't be enough when we're giving up 6 runs a game. I think this roster will be fortunate to reach 70 wins unless we catch lightning in a bottle on the mound and the young hitters take another step forward.

[Rhino and Compass]

IMO, the primary task is to improve the pitching, which is why Castro was added. He was a cheaper way to raise the sea level of the staff than buying 5 new starters. Unfortunately, they still have a long way to go, and no way to get there (as far as I can tell). I'm never in favor of the Twins buying a FA starting pitcher (Ervin Santana, one year of Phil Hughes and garbage is the recent track record) and there isn't much hope for a rotation's worth of help coming up through the organization. There is still time for Berrios, perhaps Gonsalves and Jay, but is there anyone else that we feel strongly about w/in the next 3-4 years? The best way to get healthy in the farm system fast is via trade, and it seemed that Dozier was the best trade chip. There is no market, so now what?

Falvey/Levine were brought in, in part, I believe, because thy may be more inclined to make painful decisions. To get the Twins over the hump, I think they will need to make one fairly soon. Looking at the return for Adam Eaton as a reference (I don't know if the valuations would be the same) do we think the long term future looks brighter with Byron Buxton on the roster, or with whatever bounty he might elicit in a trade? I think the latter. I hope the FO is still out on the trade market, and are willing to dig a little deeper, as much as it might hurt.

[mazeville]

 

It's hard not to be let down by this offseason but I have a few counterpoints:

 

1. This free agent class was horrible everywhere the Twins needed help, except catcher. And they got a catcher. The area they truly needed help, starting pitching, was as barren a landscape as I've seen in the past two decades.

 

2. Falvey and Levine have a lot to do. That doesn't excuse them from not being at least a little bit more active but if they had to make opportunity cost decisions between revamping analytics/scouting and trading/signing players, I'd prefer they focus hard on the former at the expense of the latter this offseason.

 

3. Brian Dozier is the biggest let down and while I'm disappointed, I can't cast final judgment on the decision until we know the actual offer from the Dodgers. I'm disappointed but not ready to crucify the front office without that information.

 

4. We're going to finally get to see the kids play in 2017 and it's way overdue. If we see anything less than four months of Berrios, May, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, and Polanco, I consider that a failure.

 

5. What is 2017? I'm not quite sure how I feel about the decision but it appears Falvey and Levine feel it's an evaluation year. Throw the kids out there, see what you have in them. Pick up a catcher to help your beleaguered pitching staff and call it a day. At least we'll get to see all the players we've been champing at the bit to see for years with all the good and bad that comes with throwing a very young roster on the field.

 

I get a lot of this. I don't think the Twins should have been all that active on the free agent front. I also understand that Falvine has to basically rebuild a front office structure that was smaller than most if not all other major league teams. And the new regime needs to understand what they have. I get all of that. 

 

But, to be fair, we've been told to be patient for a long time. We've been given garbage baseball for most of the past six years while payroll has declined and the team has deliberately kept the front office staff smaller than average -- even though we, as taxpayers, funded a brand new stadium to give them more revenues.

 

While I give ownership some credit for recognizing the problem and hiring the new guys while committing to building the front office and investing in places like the Dominican Republic, it's awful tiring to go into yet another season without significant changes to the on-field product over the offseason.

 

Maybe that's simply clamoring for change for change's sake. If it is, so be it. But this regime is going to have to do an awful lot to convince me that this team will be worth watching in 2017. And that convincing damn well better not include the phrase, "be patient." Because I ran out of all my patience long ago.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think it's wrong to say nothing has been done.

 

For starters, the Twins hired a new GM and director of baseball

 

Falvey has done the obvious things: replaced Suzuki, dumped Centeno and Plouffe like dirty dishrags (however you feel about how that was handled), and replaced the hitting coach, which also needed to be done IMO. Also they brought Torii Hunter back into the fold and whatever magic he possesses.

 

I'd be disappointed if a few other smaller moves aren't done before the season, but overall I am fine. It would be harder to see a bad trade. Guys like Gibson or May traded for cents on the dollar and have success elsewhere, before Falvey could give them some new ideas on how to improve. I also predict Ervin Santana will have some suitors as the trade deadline approaches.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm curious as to how accurate baseruns tends to be. Is it one of those estimator stats that squishes things to the middle, thus no great/terrible team is ever as great/terrible as their record indicates?

Yes and no. Lots of extremely good teams have "luck" on their side.

 

But the Cubs were -4 BaseRuns in 2016 and they were the best team in baseball.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But, to be fair, we've been told to be patient for a long time.

I get that but the new front office can't think that way. They have to do what's best for the franchise and the flaws of the old front office can't influence their decisions.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's hard not to be let down by this offseason but I have a few counterpoints:

 

1. This free agent class was horrible everywhere the Twins needed help, except catcher. And they got a catcher. The area they truly needed help, starting pitching, was as barren a landscape as I've seen in the past two decades.

 

2. Falvey and Levine have a lot to do. That doesn't excuse them from not being at least a little bit more active but if they had to make opportunity cost decisions between revamping analytics/scouting and trading/signing players, I'd prefer they focus hard on the former at the expense of the latter this offseason.

 

3. Brian Dozier is the biggest let down and while I'm disappointed, I can't cast final judgment on the decision until we know the actual offer from the Dodgers. I'm disappointed but not ready to crucify the front office without that information.

 

4. We're going to finally get to see the kids play in 2017 and it's way overdue. If we see anything less than four months of Berrios, May, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, and Polanco, I consider that a failure.

 

5. What is 2017? I'm not quite sure how I feel about the decision but it appears Falvey and Levine feel it's an evaluation year. Throw the kids out there, see what you have in them. Pick up a catcher to help your beleaguered pitching staff and call it a day. At least we'll get to see all the players we've been champing at the bit to see for years with all the good and bad that comes with throwing a very young roster on the field.

 

Will we? 

 

Still on the roster: Dan San, Grossman, and lots of veteran, bad, RPs. What evidence is there we will finally see the youth play? I think we've heard hints Berrios will be in the minors to start the year. What other org leaves someone that dominated AAA that much in AAA, when they have a bottom three pitching staff.

 

Until I see something actually, you know, happen, I don't think it happens.

 

As for Dozier not being dealt, and Santana not being dealt, well, EVERY OTHER rebuilding team has found a way to get younger talent into their organization, every. Single. One.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins are extremely young, Mike. Except for 2B, it's almost harder to get younger. I don't think Hughes actually makes the rotation this season and at least one of Grossman or Santana is cut in spring, which true some of those things are yet to be seen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins are extremely young, Mike. Except for 2B, it's almost harder to get younger. I don't think Hughes actually makes the rotation this season and at least one of Grossman or Santana is cut in spring, which true some of those things are yet to be seen.

 

They could have acquired minor league players for Dozier, if they really have some kind of full roster.....

 

I also don't think Hughes makes the rotation, but that's not due to his age.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Still on the roster: Dan San, Grossman, and lots of veteran, bad, RPs. What evidence is there we will finally see the youth play? I think we've heard hints Berrios will be in the minors to start the year. What other org leaves someone that dominated AAA that much in AAA, when they have a bottom three pitching staff.

 

Until I see something actually, you know, happen, I don't think it happens.

 

As for Dozier not being dealt, and Santana not being dealt, well, EVERY OTHER rebuilding team has found a way to get younger talent into their organization, every. Single. One.

Robbie Grossman is 27 years old with a career OPS+ of 102 and a 2016 OPS+ of 126. Yeah, he's a butcher in the field but he's not the type of guy you discard without a second thought. On the other hand, a bad start to 2017 and the Twins shouldn't hesitate to cut/demote him, either.

 

I remain unconvinced Danny Santana will be on the team in 2017. The Dozier situation resolved itself all of 12 hours ago and that creates a domino effect all the way down the roster. Instead of playing Escobar at short or finding a stop-gap shortstop, Polanco will assume the role of starting shortstop. That means Escobar is utility infield. Where's that leave Santana? On a bus somewhere that isn't Ft Myers is my hope.

 

Again, if this is an evaluation year, it makes sense to start the season with a bunch of bad/mediocre, cheap, expendable relief pitchers. As Keith Law has pointed, the Twins may have the best corps of relievers in the minors. You want a group of guys you won't hesitate to push out of the way at a moment's notice should one or more of them step forward March-May.

 

We've heard rumors Berrios may start the season in the minors but I'm not one to put much stock in rumors. I'll save my outrage for the actual decision, if/when it comes.

[Mike Sixel]

Why not just promote the young RPs now? Why wait? Why not evaluate them in the majors, before they get hurt and lose velocity?

[Rhino and Compass]

I like your style, Mike Sixel.

 

That said, I admire the optimism of the other posters in this thread who have expressed it. I have no real qualms about the offense, but I am distressed exclusively about the pitching. How does it get better? I don't have a good answer. How can anyone feel positive about a team that is willing to trade for AND pay 8m to Hector Santiago?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I like your style, Mike Sixel.

 

That said, I admire the optimism of the other posters in this thread who have expressed it. I have no real qualms about the offense, but I am distressed exclusively about the pitching. How does it get better? I don't have a good answer. How can anyone feel positive about a team that is willing to trade for AND pay 8m to Hector Santiago?

 

I also admire their optimism. I don't agree, but I admire it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why not just promote the young RPs now? Why wait? Why not evaluate them in the majors, before they get hurt and lose velocity?

I agree but it's literally January 24th. PItchers and catchers don't report for nearly a full month.

 

If the Twins break north without at least one young flamethrower in the pen, I'll be mildly disappointed.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

They could have acquired minor league players for Dozier, if they really have some kind of full roster.....

 

I also don't think Hughes makes the rotation, but that's not due to his age.

Valid point, the Twins are not bursting with talent up and down the roster, but I think the starting nine is set and they are mostly pretty good and pretty young.