Article: Flipping Toward A Brighter Future

[Tom Froemming]

There's been a lot of speculation about how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may build up the Minnesota Twins. Will they trade, draft, buy or develop their way to a brighter future for the Twins? Well I'm wondering if it may be possible for them to also flip their way toward improving the team's outlook.

 

Flipping houses is back en vogue, and it seems there's some opportunity to apply the same concepts related to flipping houses to rebuilding a ball club. Teams have all kinds of ways they can improve their future outlook, but is it possible to simply flip your way to a brighter future?Probably the best example of a team successfully flipping a player from last season was the Oakland A's handling of Rich Hill. Despite not expecting to be competitive, the A's signed Hill to a one-year, $6 million deal over the winter. From the moment the signing was announced it was speculated that the A's were out to flip Hill at the trade deadline.

 

Entering his age 36 season, it was no guarantee Hill would replicate his impressive 2015 numbers that came from just four starts. But Hill was able to thrive over 14 starts with Oakland and was packaged with Josh Reddick to land a trio of promising pitching prospects from the Dodgers: Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes.

 

The Cubs using this strategy with Scott Feldman in 2013 stick out as maybe the greatest example of the strategy. Unlike Hill, Feldman was coming off a terrible season when he signed with the Cubs, posting a 5.09 ERA. But with past success and youth on his side, Chicago gave him a one-year, $6 million deal.

Feldman turned in the best performance of his career over 15 starts as a Cub, and was sent as the headliner in a deal for Jake Arrieta. I'm sure even the most optimistic person the the Cubs' front office didn't see that working out as well as it did, but even at the time the logic was sound. Acquiring younger players with more upside and more years of control always makes sense.

 

Even with that being the case, those trades rarely work out even close to that well. Now that Arrieta is a Cy Young pitcher and the Cubs are world champions that's looking like one of the greatest trades of all time.

 

This is clearly not on that same level, but the Twins were able to flip Fernando Abad last season. No, Pat Light is not a franchise-changing piece, but the Twins did well to turn a guy they signed to a minor league deal into a younger player with upside who has more years of team control. That's the goal.

 

So how might the Twins employ the tactic this offseason?

 

Looking at guys who have the potential to be larger scale flips, someone who sticks out as a potential reclamation project among hitters is old friend Carlos Gomez. Levine's Rangers acquired him midseason from the Astros and saw him turn things around.

 

After receiving MVP consideration in 2013 and 2014 things fell apart for Gomez. In his time with the Astros, he hit even worse than when he was a Twin, which eventually led to his release. But in a short sample of 130 at-bats with the Rangers Gomez had a .905 OPS. He's seeking a multi-year deal, but you never know how the market will turn out.

 

We saw Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler sit on the market until late February last offseason. Both had to settle for one-year deals. It's difficult to predict who, but it seems likely somebody in this free agent class will end up being a great bargain for the last few teams with money left to spend.

 

On the pitching side, there are plenty of guys who could dramatically increase their value, but no one who jumps out to the extent Hill did last offseason. Brett Anderson is probably at the top of the list.

 

Anderson has been one of the least healthy pitchers in the game since debuting with Oakland as a 21-year-old back in 2009. He turns 29 in February, and has had his share of both successes and failures over his career. Overall he has an ERA+ of 105, a 3.70 FIP and 2.77 K/BB ratio for his career. The combination of suppressed value and potential upside make Anderson an ideal candidate to flip.

 

Here are some other intriguing names among starting pitchers ...

 

Derek Holland: When news first broke Texas declined his option it didn't really move the needle for me, but I'm starting to come around. I'm not sure we've seen a healthy Holland at any point over the last three seasons. In 2013 he was the eighth-best pitcher in the AL per fWAR and entering his age 30 season there should still be something left in the tank. Signing him to a one-year deal would be an excellent low risk, potentially high reward deal.

 

Henderson Alvarez: He's only thrown 22 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but is also still just 26-years-old. When healthy he can sit in the mid-90s, but he's more of a control specialist than a strikeout pitcher.

 

Jake Peavy: He's 35 and had a 5.54 ERA last season. But Eno Sarris recently highlighted his encouraging spin rates over at Fangraphs. If he's willing to pitch for a last-place team, it shouldn't be a problem landing him on an affordable one-year pact.

 

Jorge De La Rosa: The veteran longtime Rockies hurler has actually pitched relatively well in Coors Field. Still, it would be interesting to see if he could thrive if he gets outside of pitching half his games in baseball's oddest environment.

Out of the bullpen I see Santiago Casilla or Neftali Feliz as good options to flip. Either could be inserted directly into the closer role and rack up value quickly.

 

In his offseason blueprint, Seth offered up David Hernandez as an affordable veteran who could be a fit for the Twins' bullpen. He also fits the bill of someone who could be flipped.

 

Another strategy I'd be interested in would be converting a pitcher into a new role. Why not get creative and sign Travis Wood as a starter, or Andrew Cashner to pitch out of the bullpen? Might a guy like Wood even take a pay cut for the chance to start again? Who knows, maybe.

 

I am under the assumption payroll will be reduced, but hopefully Falvey and Levine can talk the Pohlads into making one of these deals. If things work out, the return on investment can be enormous. Who would you target as a free agent to flip?

 

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[Mr. Brooks]

I'd take a chance on Gomez if he can be had for 2 years or less.

He has the most upside of anyone on the FA market, and if I'm looking for a flip candidate I'm looking for upside.

[Thrylos]

Alright.

 

Name a single World Series Champion who got there doing that.  The Marlins flipped their whole team, after they won (twice), but that is not the way to win or sustainably build a culture of excellence and winning...

 

Enough with the good enough

[Tom Froemming]

 

Alright.

 

Name a single World Series Champion who got there doing that.  The Marlins flipped their whole team, after they won (twice), but that is not the way to win or sustainably build a culture of excellence and winning...

 

Enough with the good enough

Um ... the 2016 Chicago Cubs.

[Old Twins Cap]

The point here is that signing a player represents investing in an "asset".  That asset can go up or down in value. 

 

If and when that asset increases in value, you have the ability to cash it in against some other currency, i.e. younger, high upside prospects.

 

I don't like the house flipping metaphor myself, because that is just about greed. 

 

But acquiring baseball players as assets, then seeing how the pieces fit, how they appreciate and when to deal is just the reality of being a GM in 2016.  You place a bet on someone and hope it works out.

[jimmer]

 

Um ... the 2016 Chicago Cubs.

and they will be good for quite some time.

[Wizard11]

Tom,  I like your thought process here and I would trust the new management team to successfully implement it.  I also like the flipping analogy.  It is apt and in this context we are greedy for some talent in these parts.

[Riverbrian]

If you want maximum flip... Go after the bullpen arms. 

 

Every contending team is going to look at improving bullpens at the deadline. 

 

Go get Chapman... and then be willing to eat some salary at the deadline when teams come calling. 

 

After the Royals and Indians showed what they can do with a bullpen. Teams are gonna be thinking about stacking that pen from here on out. Bullpen is the rising baseball stock. 

 

Go after players like Hudson... Bullpen Arms who were once starters and could be again... like Drew Pomeranz.  

 

Get creative... stay away from the expensive average to below average starters on the market and load up that bullpen. 

 

Build it backwards

[DocBauer]

In theory, this is all a very good idea. But IMO, I'm not sure it fits where the Twins are now as an organization. To sign an OF or SP in hopes of catching some lightening and making a flip sounds like a good idea. But you also have to play and start those players enough to build that value. Now it's impossible to predict how good some of the Twins young players will turn out to be ultimately, or even how good they will be in 2017, but do you really sit one of our talented OF or a rotation candidate like May or Berrios hoping for a successful flip candidate?

 

Just not the direction I'd go, or think the Twins should go at this time. I'm more interested in a few solid guys to augment holes on the roster...quality 4th OF and another quality infielder with Dozier traded...who could be potentially smaller scale but solid flips. Similar to Abad this season.

 

Where I DO like the idea is a closer, and Feliz is probably my first choice, and maybe a LHRP on the rebound, or a failed SP being converted.

[Teflon]

But if the strategy doesn't work out then you're left with flip flops.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Love this idea for 1 year deals. A 1 year deal does absolutely nothing to either stunt a prospect's growth (if the prospect is ready) or hurt the long term ramifications of the team. If you can turn a 1 year deal into a controllable asset at the deadline, you do that EVERY time. Should be fun to follow!

[diehardtwinsfan]

problem with this is that they have young guys that they need to evaluate. I suppose I could live with them burning an option on Mejia and letting him start in AAA, that's depth, but too many of those type moves and all you have is mediocre vets blocking opportunities for younger talent.

[071063]

Management has to have a strategy and then stick to it.  Everyone on here whines and proposes ridiculous trades to solve the Twins problems.  The fact of it is, they have to do something and, if done correctly, with specific players, this strategy can be successful if the contracts the players are signed to make sense.

[USAFChief]

Gomez makes a lot of sense.  If he works out, he's very tradeable at the deadline, if he doesn't, no biggie it's just money.  

 

The Twins can use a fourth OFer anyway (and I really, really don't like Grossman), with Gomez taking perhaps every third or fourth day from Rosario, every third or fourth day from Kepler, and even occasionally getting a day in CF for Buxton if necessary.  Much if not most of Gomez' playing time can come against LH pitching.

 

That's enough playing time to make Gomez attractive if he performs, without seriously degrading playing time for either Rosario or Kepler.  Adjust as necessary as the season progresses. 

[TheLeviathan]

I wish the FA market offered more attractive homes to flip.  Everything on the market is rubble.

 

But where there are options are with guys like Gomez and the bullpen guys.  Target that.  

[Doomtints]

I like the comparison to flipping houses and I admit I had never made this type of connection before.

 

Pick up a player, clean him up and make him look nice, then send him packing at a premium before he turns back into a pumpkin.

 

The ultimate flip of course would be the Broncos and Tim Tebow.  It's hard to think of this being as easy to do in baseball as it is for a quarterback in the NFL, where you can mold the rest of the team to play towards the quarterback's strengths and hide his weaknesses.  

 

If this strategy could be pulled off in baseball the team pulling it off would deserve a section in the hall of fame.  

[markos]

 

problem with this is that they have young guys that they need to evaluate. I suppose I could live with them burning an option on Mejia and letting him start in AAA, that's depth, but too many of those type moves and all you have is mediocre vets blocking opportunities for younger talent.

It is a tough balance to be sure. I think there is space for 2 or 3 flip options. Bullpen probably has room for a couple. In a certain sense, Santiago already fits this profile - 15 decent starts and he could be flipped. Hard to determine if there will be room to sign another starter - depends on if they decide keep Santiago and if they trade Santana. If Santiago is non-tendered and Santana is traded, then they definitely have room for an arm like Holland. 

 

I don't have the option status for Rosario or Kepler off the top of my head, but I don't think it would ruin either to spend the first 3 months in AAA (or for Rosario, as 4th OF) to give room for a player like Gomez on a one-year-deal. 

[HitInAPinch]

How about bringing in Johan Santana?  Yeah, yeah, yeah.   I know he hasn't pitched since 2012.  I'd just like to see him retire as a Twin. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

I don't like the theory at all. We've screamed for years about the Twinkies always picked up reclamation projects off the baseball players scrapheap and throwing their salaries away by mid-season when "hope" that the Twins Way would rescue them from incompetence vanishes. This flipping idea is worse and sounds more like going to the casino when you're short rent money.

 

Here's a smarter strategy in my humble opinion; bring up all those not-so-young-anymore prospects that have been languishing in the minors while we try and milk a few wins out in the majors and find out if they're really as good as the hype. If they are, we have lots of decent players under team control. If they can't cut the mustard, flip them to another team and restock the minors with more "prospects". You want a "consistent long-term winner" as the new brain trust's announced grand strategy has proclaimed, that's the way to do it. Not short term flipping.

 

[Seth Stohs]

This is the strategy the Twins (Terry Ryan) used some in the late 90s. It's how he added David Ortiz and Joe Mays and others for guys like Dave Hollins and Roberto Kelly. I'm sure there are many examples... but I do love this strategy.

[KirbyDome89]

 

But if the strategy doesn't work out then you're left with flip flops.

Flip flops on a minor league or some other sort of very team friendly contract. If it doesn't work out the team isn't hurt financially and the player can be waived. Its the ultimate low risk move with potential pay off. For a team like the Twins who could use some bullpen additions to start the year it would be a questionable decision not to employ this type of strategy.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Here's a smarter strategy in my humble opinion; bring up all those not-so-young-anymore prospects that have been languishing in the minors while we try and milk a few wins out in the majors and find out if they're really as good as the hype. If they are, we have lots of decent players under team control. If they can't cut the mustard, flip them to another team and restock the minors with more "prospects". You want a "consistent long-term winner" as the new brain trust's announced grand strategy has proclaimed, that's the way to do it. Not short term flipping.

 

Why can't you do both?

[KirbyDome89]

 

Why can't you do both?

Couldn't agree more. Adding a 4th OF and some bullpen pieces only helps this team. I don't see how making a small investment in those parts with the idea of flipping them at the deadline hinders the Twins at all. They have a wave of young bullpen arms coming up but wasn't that the plan last year? I think we all received a taste of how volatile prospects, especially pitching prospects, can be last season. I'm all for letting the kids play but looking at the current state of the bullpen I see no harm in purchasing a few lotto tickets. The "worst case scenario," is that the prospects perform as anticipated and the Twins dump a few small contracts. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Couldn't agree more. Adding a 4th OF and some bullpen pieces only helps this team. I don't see how making a small investment in those parts with the idea of flipping them at the deadline hinders the Twins at all. They have a wave of young bullpen arms coming up but wasn't that the plan last year? I think we all received a taste of how volatile prospects, especially pitching prospects, can be last season. I'm all for letting the kids play but looking at the current state of the bullpen I see no harm in purchasing a few lotto tickets. The "worst case scenario," is that the prospects perform as anticipated and the Twins dump a few small contracts. 

 

Except that the Twins already have several good outfielders – Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, with Palka and Granite close to being ready. When those two are added, the Twins might just contend for the best outfield in the majors - at least defensively.

 

 

[beckmt]

 

In theory, this is all a very good idea. But IMO, I'm not sure it fits where the Twins are now as an organization. To sign an OF or SP in hopes of catching some lightening and making a flip sounds like a good idea. But you also have to play and start those players enough to build that value. Now it's impossible to predict how good some of the Twins young players will turn out to be ultimately, or even how good they will be in 2017, but do you really sit one of our talented OF or a rotation candidate like May or Berrios hoping for a successful flip candidate?

Just not the direction I'd go, or think the Twins should go at this time. I'm more interested in a few solid guys to augment holes on the roster...quality 4th OF and another quality infielder with Dozier traded...who could be potentially smaller scale but solid flips. Similar to Abad this season.

Where I DO like the idea is a closer, and Feliz is probably my first choice, and maybe a LHRP on the rebound, or a failed SP being converted.

This is why I sign Kelly Jansen.  With the rest of the bullpen types coming, starting pitching is not as important in the short term.  Twins by midseason should be able to have a close to 4 inning shutdown bullpen.  Ask the Royals, that covers a lot of sins.

[Rosterman]

Flipping is fun. They did it with Abad. Nunez they did good. But couldn't find anyone to take Ervin Santana (which was a surprise) and you can't always flip dregs. We still have Kintzler and Boshers.

 

Basically, the Twins have to do a better job of moving assets that don't figure into longterm plans.

 

They did good moving Meyer. But did they really get anything in return. They failed with moving Plouffe. They definitely put too much stock in Adam Walker and never utilized the possibility that he might have value. Sometimes YOU MUST do a major league showcase, even if it turns out badly.

[jimmer]

 

Flipping is fun. They did it with Abad. Nunez they did good. But couldn't find anyone to take Ervin Santana (which was a surprise) and you can't always flip dregs. We still have Kintzler and Boshers.

 

Basically, the Twins have to do a better job of moving assets that don't figure into longterm plans.

 

They did good moving Meyer. But did they really get anything in return. They failed with moving Plouffe. They definitely put too much stock in Adam Walker and never utilized the possibility that he might have value. Sometimes YOU MUST do a major league showcase, even if it turns out badly.

We don't know if they COULDN'T move Ervin.  Just as likely they never tried to move Ervin.  Same with Plouffe (last year).

[KirbyDome89]

 

Except that the Twins already have several good outfielders – Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, with Palka and Granite close to being ready. When those two are added, the Twins might just contend for the best outfield in the majors - at least defensively.

I don't know how adding a 4th OF as an upgrade over Grossman is a bad thing. It shouldn't be difficult to get that bench OF ABs without sacrificing development time for either Buxton, Kepler, or Rosario. Honestly, at this point Rosario has the look of a platoon/4th OF himself so having a capable backup is important. Granite has one year at AA and is far from a lock to see time with the Twins this year. If Palka starts this year like he did at AA last season then yeah he'll definitely be up but if he picks up where he left off at AAA then he's looking more like a September call up. Its a smart decision to have low risk high reward contracts that can swapped for assets or dumped if a prospect pushes for playing time.  

[The Wise One]

Someone thinks that the Twins can sign a player to a contract with the intent of helping the player build back up their value. You are counting on an agent and pitcher believing that the defense will be better or thinking that defense does not matter.   Lots of luck. I do not think there are many pitchers looking to rebuild their value who are K% of 100