What's Wrong with Brian Dozier?

[Vanimal46]

His 2nd half drop off last season was well documented: 

 

.210 / .280 / .359 9 HR 34 RBI 

He's off to another very slow start this year. 

 

.196 / .288 / .304 

A 2 week hot streak could make this post look silly, but 3+ months of below average hitting IMO is a cause for concern. Is this the beginning of the end for Dozier?

[RedBull34]

I mean he's been hitting it hard, but he seems completely flummoxed by the shift.  Look at today.  Whole space between 1st and 2nd open (and more then one pitch on the outside of the plate) and he didn't know how to put the ball there. 

 

It is disapointing.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Does he have a rock in his shoe, maybe?

[Thrylos]

Now with Polanco up, Dozier needs to ride the pine for a few days to clear his head...

[bluechipper]

He's at a career high in fly ball percentage, 55.6% this year compared to 42.4% for his career. That's not a big surprise to me, as Dozier seems to hit a really large amount of lazy fly balls. Also, a .229 BABIP doesn't help.

[jimmer]

 

He's at a career high in fly ball percentage, 55.6% this year compared to 42.4% for his career. That's not a big surprise to me, as Dozier seems to hit a really large amount of lazy fly balls. Also, a .229 BABIP doesn't help.

Those fly balls are a big reason why his BABIP is so low.

[PseudoSABR]

SSS

[Vanimal46]

SSS

Is it a SSS when it's been the same level of offensive production during his last 3+ months playing in the regular season?

[adorduan]

Pitchers are pitching him away and he's still trying to pull the ball most of the time.

[Riverbrian]

1. Pitchers are only going to feed his hot zones by mistake or unless they are stupidly cocky or they don't bother to learn the locations of his hot zones or they don't believe in that hot zone mumbo jumbo.

 

2. His Hot Zones are clustered tightly into Up and In. Everything else is a cold Zone.

 

3. His Hot Zones are his Hot Zones because he is tragic non-reversible pull hitter.  

 

4. It's been this way since 2013 and it's showing no sign of changing. 

 

5. The very nature of being a pull hitter limits the amount of green available that can help produce a base hit. Once teams realize that you are a pull hitter they put on a shift and that limits the amount of green that you have already limited by being a pull hitter. 

 

6. Either Dozier adjusts to take an outside pitch the other way or he learns to pull an outside pitch effectively without popping up meekly or the pitchers give in and start throwing the ball into his happy zone because they feel sorry for him. 

 

7. If none of the 3 things listed in point number 6 happens. We are going to start getting very disgusted with someone that I felt was the best 2B in baseball just a couple of years ago. 

 

8. The 7 points above are my opinion and my opinion only unless others agree with me. 

 

[Riverbrian]

One more thing... there is absolutely nothing in Brian Doziers approach at the plate that suggests... Lead Off Hitter. 

 

He Approaches his PA's like he's David Ortiz. 

 

I'd bat him 5th or 6th or lower. 

 

 

[stringer bell]

Well, Dozier has only struck out twice in the past week, so there's that. He is hitting an inordinate number of pop flies and just missing quite a few pitches. Seems like he is close. I think his very good performance the last two years should allow him some slack, but I can't help but be a bit concerned when he just can't make solid contact and hit the ball the other way. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Is it a SSS when it's been the same level of offensive production during his last 3+ months playing in the regular season?

Well, when you're alleging it's the start 2016 that is more of the same (2nd half of 2016), I'd say the basis for that sameness is SSS.

[twinsnorth49]

Yeah, it would help if he didn't try to pull everything but he's a known entity and it's his turn to adjust, the pitchers have. Having said that, I think he's just partly on a run of bad luck, he'll start driving it eventually.

[kab21]

He has always been streaky. If a few of his flyouts drop in for XBH's his entire stat line transforms into his normal line.

 

I am much more worried about players like Rosario and Buxton that can't even make contact.

[Kwak]

Why would he change?  The Twins have rewarded him handsomely for batting exactly this way.  The rest of MLB will add considerably more money if he maintains his SLG%--especially with the HRs.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Pitchers are pitching him away and he's still trying to pull the ball most of the time.

It's true, it's basic, it is clear.

If Dozier can't learn to use the whole field he's doomed.

My guess: He's doomed

to be what he is,

a fly ball happy

occasional homerun hitting

low average

dude

take it or leave it but eventually I hope the Twins leave it. Enough

is enough

or will be enough when someone better

comes along

please

[ScrapTheNickname]

What does SSS mean?

Signed Bohunk From Bemidji

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

SSS= small sample size.

[CampQ]

It's true, it's basic, it is clear.

If Dozier can't learn to use the whole field he's doomed.

My guess: He's doomed

to be what he is,

a fly ball happy

occasional homerun hitting

low average

dude

take it or leave it but eventually I hope the Twins leave it. Enough

is enough

or will be enough when someone better

comes along

please

 

I never expected to see vers libre on a baseball forum

[Platoon]

After the second half of 2014, it really surprised me he saw anything up and in, to start 2015, but he did. Now the only ones he sees in that zone are mistakes, or balls so far out of reach he can't hit them. But he still tries. For those waiting for the first half of the last two years Dozier, it might be a long wait. There are likely only two outcomes. The version of Dozier you see now, or one who adjusts, has gap doubles power, hits maybe .260, and can run the bases fairly well. There won't be an opposite field hitting Dozier with 28 home runs. He doesnt exist. In a game thread, early in Doziers struggles last year, the Chief summed it up succinctly. "Doziers problem is he thinks he's a HR hitter, and he isn't"!

[Brock Beauchamp]

What's wrong with Brian Dozier? Nothing, really... Probably a blip in his career.

 

First number 2016, second number career:

 

K%: 17.2% / 19.1%

 

BB%: 10.3% / 9.2%

 

Hard Hit %: 26.8% / 27.1%

 

Pull %: 46.3% / 50.2%

 

Infield Fly %: 9.1% / 16.1%

 

Flyball %: 55.0% / 42.4% (the first real difference from his career number)

 

BABIP: .231 / .268 (possibly linked to the flyball issue)

 

So, Brian Dozier is close to the same player has has been in his career. Are shifts hurting him? Possibly. Are pitcher attacking him differently? Possibly. Are those things worth .040 batting average and .060 slugging? Probably not.

 

Brian Dozier has some adjustments to make but he's also hitting into a bit of bad luck... Time will tell whether he makes those adjustments but any adjustments he makes should be the difference between a .700 OPS and a .770 OPS player, not the .600 OPS player he is right now.

[HitInAPinch]

Too much hair gel.   Fumes under his helmet are causing discombobulation.

[EddieMatthews]

Dozier could battle the shift by pushing a bunt to the right side.  He has the speed to beat it out.  He doesn't need to change his hitting style, only use other things to stretch the field.  

[bird]

 

 

 

8. The 7 points above are my opinion and my opinion only unless others agree with me. 

 

 

Getting any 2 of us to agree on any 7 points isn't feasible. Is it OK if I agree with, say, 3 of them?

[Platoon]

What's wrong with Brian Dozier? Nothing, really... Probably a blip in his career.

 

First number 2016, second number career:

 

K%: 17.2% / 19.1%

 

BB%: 10.3% / 9.2%

 

Hard Hit %: 26.8% / 27.1%

 

Pull %: 46.3% / 50.2%

 

Infield Fly %: 9.1% / 16.1%

 

Flyball %: 55.0% / 42.4% (the first real difference from his career number)

 

BABIP: .231 / .268 (possibly linked to the flyball issue)

 

So, Brian Dozier is close to the same player has has been in his career. Are shifts hurting him? Possibly. Are pitcher attacking him differently? Possibly. Are those things worth .040 batting average and .060 slugging? Probably not.

 

Brian Dozier has some adjustments to make but he's also hitting into a bit of bad luck... Time will tell whether he makes those adjustments but any adjustments he makes should be the difference between a .700 OPS and a .770 OPS player, not the .600 OPS player he is right now.

Sometimes numbers tell a story, and sometimes the numbers are a story. Doziers problem is he only can hit one pitch into the seats, and that observation is not based on a SSS. Eliminating, or at least drastically decreasing this pitche leaves you with very limited power numbers. And pitchers have made it very clear that the only up and in stuff he will see, is a mistake. There is nothing wrong with a Dozier who hits doubles, gets on base, and runs well. The Twins need that more than another HR hitter. The question is can he do it? Or shall I say, will he? Credit to Dozier for identifying a niche, selling out on the inside pitch, and identifying a proclivity for the Twins to "buy high". He has guaranteed his future.

[nokomismod]

I wonder what the Twins could have received for Dozier in the offseason. His game and stats remind me a lot of Dan Uggla.

[chopper0080]

If there was any player who I would consider trading at the deadline, it would probably be Dozier.  He offers enough pop that you could probably get something useful for him.  From a roster standpoint, I believe his power is not as useful on the Twins because they need more players who can get on base.

[HitInAPinch]

Trade Dozier for what, exactly?  Poor last half of last year.  A Spring Training where he tried to hit more towards opposite field and a bad start to this year.  What is his current value? 

 

It's a long season.....

[TheLeviathan]

I like Brian Dozier, I want him to more consistently be the kind of high end player we've seen.

 

But the way his production shifts around from week to week and month to month really makes me wonder about him.