What's Wrong with Brian Dozier?

[Willihammer]

Its no surprise he is streaky. Think about how miniscule the difference is between a popup and a home run. Right now, he's popping up balls instead of hittng them 350 feets. That will change. I wouldn't worry unless his plate discipline takes a turn or his batted ball velocity / distance takes a dive.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Its no surprise he is streaky. Think about how miniscule the difference is between a popup and a home run. Right now, he's popping up balls instead of hittng them 350 feets. That will change. I wouldn't worry unless his plate discipline takes a turn or his batted ball velocity / distance takes a dive.

 

Brian Dozier hasn't had a month with an OBP above .300 since June of last year.  Just sayin.

[Willihammer]

 

Brian Dozier hasn't had a month with an OBP above .300 since June of last year.  Just sayin.

His ISOd is fine. As Brock shows, the more granular measures of his approach are unchanged. The only exception is the higher fly ball percentage, and higher IFFB rate.

 

He's just a tad under the ball. That explains 100% of this.

[TheLeviathan]

 

His ISOd is fine. As Brock shows, the more granular measures of his approach are unchanged. The only exception is the higher fly ball percentage, and higher IFFB rate.

 

He's just a tad under the ball. That explains 100% of this.

 

And while that's possible it's also possible that the league has adjusted to him and that his higher rate of pop-ups is not merely coincidental or bad luck.  Here's the truth - if April continues this way we'll be looking at 4 consecutive months of this kind of production.

 

At what point does that become worrisome if not now?

[nicksaviking]

I'm pretty surprised that Dozier's approach appears to be the same as last year. I really thought after last year's second half we were going to see him going with the pitches and trying to go the other way more.

 

He wasn't always this dead pull hitter, he only started doing this after his original demotion and the Twins and/or Dozier saw Josh Willingham finally figure out Target Field for everyone, that is grip-it-and-rip-it to left field. Almost immediately Dozier and Plouffe followed suit.

 

In the minors, Dozier was a high OBP/low strikeout guy. I always assumed he still could revert back to that game if needed. It either appears he and/or the team has decided that it isn't yet needed, or he is no longer able.

[Willihammer]

 

And while that's possible it's also possible that the league has adjusted to him and that his higher rate of pop-ups is not merely coincidental or bad luck.  Here's the truth - if April continues this way we'll be looking at 4 consecutive months of this kind of production.

 

At what point does that become worrisome if not now?

You are forgetting spring training where he was crushing it. But to answer your question, it becomes worrisome when the underlying discpline and velocity/distance change, but that hasn't happened as far as I know. FWIW I don't attribute the popups to luck so much as the fleeting nature of good mechanics. He'll figure it out.

[alarp33]

 

You are forgetting spring training where he was crushing it. 

 

I'm guessing he didn't forget Spring Training, he just knows that it doesn't count or mean anything

[TheLeviathan]

You are forgetting spring training where he was crushing it. But to answer your question, it becomes worrisome when the underlying discpline and velocity/distance change, but that hasn't happened as far as I know. FWIW I don't attribute the popups to luck so much as the fleeting nature of good mechanics. He'll figure it out.

I bet he killed some batting cages for giggles in the offseason, but I ain't counting that either. 4 months of poor hitting should be worrisome for any player. I'm not saying cut him,but we should be past the "eh, he's fine" stage.

[Willihammer]

 

I bet he killed some batting cages for giggles in the offseason, but I ain't counting that either. 4 months of poor hitting should be worrisome for any player. I'm not saying cut him,but we should be past the "eh, he's fine" stage.

Didn't you say the exact same thing last year at this time? And then he went on a two month run of crushing it. The worst thing the Twins could do now is panic. Dozier is, by nature of being a fly ball hitter, streaky. If you want him to be more consistent, then you want him to put the ball on the ground more, and that will sap his  power. That's not a trade we should be eager to make.

[TheLeviathan]

Yes, I continue to worry about Dozier as a long term investment. His weird swings in production don't imply a reliable player to count on.

 

We aren't talking about a minor swing either, he's at "not a starter" level production for four months and counting.

[Linus]

If Polanco shows promise from an obp standpoint I would deal him. The Twins lineup needs a different mix and Dozier is the best candidate to do that.

[chopper0080]

 

Trade Dozier for what, exactly?  Poor last half of last year.  A Spring Training where he tried to hit more towards opposite field and a bad start to this year.  What is his current value? 

 

It's a long season.....

 

You could probably get some bullpen help...

[d-mac]

 

I wonder what the Twins could have received for Dozier in the offseason. His game and stats remind me a lot of Dan Uggla.

 

Good comp. Dozier is faster and probably a better fielder, but Uggla had more power. 

[Platoon]

Didn't you say the exact same thing last year at this time? And then he went on a two month run of crushing it. The worst thing the Twins could do now is panic. Dozier is, by nature of being a fly ball hitter, streaky. If you want him to be more consistent, then you want him to put the ball on the ground more, and that will sap his  power. That's not a trade we should be eager to make.

. Hmmm, and now he is on a four month streak of uncrushing it! He is suffering the same fate that almost all pull happy hitters do. I actually think he has the ability to correct it, but he would have to give up the image of "Brian Dozier, ASG HR Participant". If and when he does, is up to him.

[Willihammer]

I'm reserving necro rights on this thread. All the "Dozier needs to stop pulling the ball" posts are going to look silly when he has 10-15 HRs and a .800 OPS by the AS break.

[Hrbowski]

 

I wonder what the Twins could have received for Dozier in the offseason. His game and stats remind me a lot of Dan Uggla.

Javier Baez is more of a Dan Uggla type.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Good comp. Dozier is faster and probably a better fielder, but Uggla had more power. 

There's no "probably" about it. Uggla was a butcher at second base.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm reserving necro rights on this thread. All the "Dozier needs to stop pulling the ball" posts are going to look silly when he has 10-15 HRs and a .800 OPS by the AS break.

I was thinking the same thing... It's Twins Daily's third annual "proclaim the painful and ugly decline of Brian Dozier" thread.

 

Do it enough times and the thread will get it right... Keep it up and by 2022, this thread has a pretty solid chance of being correct at least once.

 

I'm mildly... curious, maybe?... about Dozier's struggles over the second half of 2015 and early 2016 but I'm not worried about it yet... Let the guy get at least 100 PAs this season before making a snap judgment on his future as a baseball player.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

SSS= small sample size.

Of course. THanks.

[alarp33]

 

I was thinking the same thing... It's Twins Daily's third annual "proclaim the painful and ugly decline of Brian Dozier" thread.

 

Do it enough times and the thread will get it right... Keep it up and by 2022, this thread has a pretty solid chance of getting it right at least once.

 

I'm mildly... curious, maybe?... about Dozier's struggles over the second half of 2015 and early 2016 but I'm not worried about it yet... Let the guy get at least 100 PAs this season before making a snap judgment on his future as a baseball player.

 

I think there's a pretty valid reason behind it... its fairly clear he is a "one trick pony", with his dead pull power, small spot in the zone where he hits pitches, etc.  

 

Yes, the sample size is still small, even including last year, and its too early to give up on him.  BUT, the thought behind pitchers just not giving him anything up and in anymore, is a valid concern.  He needs to show he can adjust, and he hasn't.  

 

Even though he's a veteran, I think its more reasonable to be concerned about him, than the younger guys who are still learning.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Is it a SSS when it's been the same level of offensive production during his last 3+ months playing in the regular season?

 

Yeah but the last 13 games took place a full 6 months after the first part and he was banged up the end of last year. I certainly don't enjoy watching Dozier not hit well but I think it's way too early to be worried. He could use a bit of a drop in the lineup perhaps.

[ThejacKmp]

 

For those waiting for the first half of the last two years Dozier, it might be a long wait.

 

I've said it before, I'll say it again. The "Brian Dozier had a bad second half the past two years" narrative is as tiresome as it is incorrect. He did not fall off in the second half of 2014 in any meaningful way and had a second half every bit as good as the first half. He has one and only one year with a second half fade (last year, when he was banged up). One year does not a pattern make. Let's all agree to kill this talk whenever it starts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think there's a pretty valid reason behind it... its fairly clear he is a "one trick pony", with his dead pull power, small spot in the zone where he hits pitches, etc.  

 

Yes, the sample size is still small, even including last year, and its too early to give up on him.  BUT, the thought behind pitchers just not giving him anything up and in anymore, is a valid concern.  He needs to show he can adjust, and he hasn't.  

 

Even though he's a veteran, I think its more reasonable to be concerned about him, than the younger guys who are still learning.  

My thinking is this:

 

- Brian Dozier has had roughly 2,000 PAs of success against MLB pitching

 

- If Brian Dozier was incapable of making adjustments, Brian Dozier would not have had 2,000 PAs of success against MLB pitching

 

Are pitchers going after him differently? Maybe. Is it temporarily affecting his performance? Maybe.

 

But it's not like pitchers and coaches are so dense that it requires nearly three full seasons of PAs to realize "hey, maybe this guy can't hit this pitch". It doesn't take a guy teeing off on an opposing pitcher 75 times for opponents to reevaluate a strategy and adjust their approach. If defeating Brian Dozier was so simple as changing what you throw to him, it would have happened 2+ seasons ago.

 

So I'm not terribly worried until this decrease in production continues well into May or even June. Dozier has shown he can adjust, now it's just a matter of him adjusting yet again. I'm confident it will happen sooner rather than later.

[ThejacKmp]

 

  Here's the truth - if April continues this way we'll be looking at 4 consecutive months of this kind of production.

 

 

 

You can't call months consecutive if they happen six months apart. The baseball season does not exist on a permanent loop, as much as we might like it to. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Doziers problem is he only can hit one pitch into the seats, and that observation is not based on a SSS. Eliminating, or at least drastically decreasing this pitche leaves you with very limited power numbers. And pitchers have made it very clear that the only up and in stuff he will see, is a mistake.

 

Are there numbers to back up this claim? 

 

I took a look on fangraphs and these are the % of pitches up Dozier saw the last three years:

 

2014 22.6%
2015 22.3%
2016 21.7%

 

Pretty much no change on pitches up.  If you just want to go up and in:

 

2014 7.0% (15.6% if you include middle up)
2015 5.2% (13.5% if you include middle up)
2016 5.7% (13.6% if you include middle up)

 

There’s a bit of a dip from 2014 to 2015/2016 on pitches up and in but I’m not sure that’s its big enough to provide a reasonable explanation for what’s happening (or to explain how he was so hot beginning of 2015).

 

I tend to go more for “he was banged up from playing every day last year” and this year he’s just hitting under pitches a little more often. That should even itself out and screams SSS.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm guessing he didn't forget Spring Training, he just knows that it doesn't count or mean anything

 

But if you're trying to make a SSS not-so-small by connecting it to last year, you'd have to also explain spring training. You could try with "pitchers are new" or "they don't use scouting reports" but that only holds so much water when a guy is doing well against ML pitching in spring training. 

 

And that ignores how dubious it is to connect months that took place six months apart. Injuries fade, guys have more energy, there are new starting pitchers to face - it's all very different.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You can't call months consecutive if they happen six months apart. The baseball season does not exist on a permanent loop, as much as we might like it to. 

 

We are currently at his last 400 PAs at an OPS roughly around .600.  

 

What's ridiculous is thinking you can somehow limit this conversation to the 50 this season and pretend last season was injury.  That's convenient reasoning and cherry picking.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

My biggest worry is that 'pull power' is often the last-stand adjustment older players make in order to stay effective in the league. In this case, that IS how Dozier was effective in his prime. Now, he is and will continue to age and lose bat speed, pitcher have the book on him, and teams will shift him. 

 

Doesn't mean he can't and won't still be a good player, but it is not like his homers were ever massive bombs, so his drop-off could be an ugly one...sort of Ugla-ish even possibly. Hope he adjusts and learns to make better contact and use the whole field.

[TheLeviathan]

 

My thinking is this:

 

- Brian Dozier has had roughly 2,000 PAs of success against MLB pitching

 

2000 is being generous, it's closer to 1500 and 700 that are worrisome.  400 of those 700 being the most recent 400 at-bats of his career.  

 

Let's make this super clear - I am not advocating trading him.  I'm not advocating Polanco takes his spot.  But Brian Dozier has been hitting like Kurt Suzuki for the last 400 at-bats and everyone is shrugging their shoulders.  That's crazy to me.

[TheLeviathan]

If someone knows a site or a place you could compare two players over their last 500 PAs I would guess we'd be horrified how similar Dozier and Suzuki have been.  I tried and failed to find such a site, but I think it might sink the point home if anyone else can have more luck.