What's Wrong with Brian Dozier?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

2000 is being generous, it's closer to 1500 and 700 that are worrisome.  400 of those 700 being the most recent 400 at-bats of his career.  

 

Let's make this super clear - I am not advocating trading him.  I'm not advocating Polanco takes his spot.  But Brian Dozier has been hitting like Kurt Suzuki for the last 400 at-bats and everyone is shrugging their shoulders.  That's crazy to me.

I can understand some concern but I disagree that we can carry over last year's numbers into this season. And I think you're overblowing Dozier's decline last season... He posted a .715 OPS in July (and was much better in the second half of the month than he was in the first). He was below average in August (.662, again slightly better in the second half of the month than he was the first) and horrific in September (.565). Those two months combined for 257 PAs.

 

Last season, he could have been banged up or just flat-out tired. There are a dozen reasons why players struggle down the stretch of a 162 game season.

 

And we're all of 58 PAs into this season. There isn't enough data to draw a conclusion.

 

Like I said, if he's still struggling well into May or June, then it's a problem but right now, I think it's just an oddity. I've seen Dozier go to the warning track multiple times this season... If one of those balls turns into a homer and another a double, he's close enough to his career numbers that it's data noise and this thread doesn't exist at all.

 

And given how none of his peripherals - outside of flyballs - has changed more than 2-3 percentage points, what's most likely is that Dozier is suffering a dry stretch that's half struggling, half luck.

 

And time will tell whether that sorts itself out on its own.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I can understand some concern but I disagree that we can carry over last year's numbers into this season.

 

Last season, he could have been banged up or just flat-out tired. There are a dozen reasons why players struggle down the stretch of a 162 game season.

 

And time will tell whether that sorts itself out on its own.

 

Time won't tell if you keep cherry picking which times count.  There will always be a ready supply of excuses, but if we're going to use numbers than let's use numbers and not keep shifting the argument around.  Dozier has been hitting more like Suzuki the last 400 times he's come to the plate.

 

You're entitled to worry when you want to, but let's not put lipstick on a pig here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Time won't tell if you keep cherry picking which times count.  There will always be a ready supply of excuses, but if we're going to use numbers than let's use numbers and not keep shifting the argument around.  Dozier has been hitting more like Suzuki the last 400 times he's come to the plate.

 

You're entitled to worry when you want to, but let's not put lipstick on a pig here.

Well, your timeline doesn't make much sense when you dig into the numbers.

 

July, 2015: .715 OPS, much better in the second half of the month than he was the first

 

August, 2015: .662 OPS, slightly better in the second half of the month than he was the first

 

Sept/Oct, 2015: .565 OPS, flat-out terrible

 

So, in essence, Dozier had a decent July, a slightly below average August, and a truly horrible September... Which consisted of 137 PAs.

 

Yeah, it was a bad time for Dozier to go ice-cold but you're stretching out half a season of mixed play into being half a season of really bad play, dragged into the gutter by a single bad month.

[alarp33]

It's interesting what players people are willing to make excuses for.  

 

There's a thread labeling Buxton a flop after ~150 plate appearances that have also been split over 2 seasons, with the majority of those PA coming when the GM himself said he "wasn't ready".  Someone who had never had a AAA at bat, and missed the majority of the 2014 season.  But write him off!

 

Dozier has sucked for almost 4 months of Baseball but it doesn't matter because he must have been hurt or tired.  

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I admit, that was some damn fine cherry picking again.  Good gravy.

[alarp33]

 

Well, your timeline doesn't make much sense when you dig into the numbers.

 

July, 2015: .715 OPS, much better in the second half of the month than he was the first

 

August, 2015: .662 OPS, slightly better in the second half of the month than he was the first

 

Sept/Oct, 2015: .565 OPS, flat-out terrible

 

So, in essence, Dozier had a decent July, a slightly below average August, and a truly horrible September... Which consisted of 137 PAs.

 

Yeah, it was a bad time for Dozier to go ice-cold but you're stretching out half a season of mixed play into being half a season of really bad play, dragged into the gutter by a single bad month.

 

He had an equally horrendous OBP in July, August, September. He just hit a couple less home runs in September.  OPS is not the end all be all 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I admit, that was some damn fine cherry picking again.  Good gravy.

Yeah, I'm the one cherry-picking. You just said this a few posts ago:

 

"2000 is being generous, it's closer to 1500 and 700 that are worrisome.  400 of those 700 being the most recent 400 at-bats of his career."

 

And I directly rebutted the fact that Dozier has been "worrisome" for 400 PAs. He hasn't... He had a mediocre month, a below average month, and a truly awful month.

 

You're building a narrative that Dozier was bad for well over half a season and that simply is not true.

 

Nevermind that we had this identical argument before the 2014 season... and then again before the 2015 season... and now it's... 2016. Here we are again.

[Platoon]

If you wish to compare Suzukis offensive numbers you need to go to: NL/BA/Pitchers. You will find him somewhere in the middle. . Speaking seriously for a moment, there are players that have hit like Dozier has and been banished to mid state NY for a year. And no, I am not advocating that. And the reason the whole BD pulls everything mantra seems old, is because BD does pull everything. The thought that pitchers would not take 2 years to adjust to Dozier is valid. But even more so if it would explain why Dozier has not adjusted to the pitchers in this same time frame. While the reception on the TV in my moms basement is at a times fuzzy, it doesn't take a real clear picture to see someone consistently reaching out over the plate, and trying to wrap the end of his bat around an outside pitch.

[TheLeviathan]

And I included the mediocre month despite it not serving my point.  I'm using post ASG to now, good or bad and since that time he and Suzuki are pretty similar.  I'm not picking stuff apart by freaking week like you just did.  Cmon.  

 

And yeah, we did this last year and what was my point?  If Dozier is this erratic it makes him more unreliable.  And here we are 400 very subpar PAS in a row.  I hope he recovers but I am worried.  400 is approaching reliable size sample.

[Willihammer]

 

My biggest worry is that 'pull power' is often the last-stand adjustment older players make in order to stay effective in the league. In this case, that IS how Dozier was effective in his prime. Now, he is and will continue to age and lose bat speed, pitcher have the book on him, and teams will shift him. 

 

Doesn't mean he can't and won't still be a good player, but it is not like his homers were ever massive bombs, so his drop-off could be an ugly one...sort of Ugla-ish even possibly. Hope he adjusts and learns to make better contact and use the whole field.

A legit concern but he is 29 so I'm highly dubious this is the end of Brian Dozier the power hitter as we know it. And pull-power, after all, is what turned him from organizational depth guy into MLB all star. He should keep doing it until the batted ball data says he no longer has the bat speed for it, then maybe you think about slapping singles middle-way. IMO.

[Willihammer]

Actually he's not even 29 yet. B-day on May 15.

[alarp33]

 

 

And I directly rebutted the fact that Dozier has been "worrisome" for 400 PAs. He hasn't... He had a mediocre month, a below average month, and a truly awful month.

 

 

If Brian Dozier had a 92 wRC+ this year, and hit .206/.282/.433 (which he did in July '15) I'm not sure there is anyone that would be calling his season "mediocre"

[Brock Beauchamp]

And I included the mediocre month despite it not serving my point. I'm using post ASG to now, good or bad and since that time he and Suzuki are pretty similar. I'm not picking stuff apart by freaking week like you just did. Cmon.

 

And yeah, we did this last year and what was my point? If Dozier is this erratic it makes him more unreliable. And here we are 400 very subpar PAS in a row. I hope he recovers but I am worried. 400 is approaching reliable size sample.

My point with the half-months was to illustrate that he didn't slowly decline month by month and week by week.

 

If Dozier started July with a .780 OPS, ended it with a .720, ended August with a .680... Etc... Your narrative that he's in decline makes sense.

 

But that's not what happened. He's been up and down, it's merely that the last "down" was particularly ugly. Really, really ugly.

 

And I think Dozier's various struggles are a mild problem... It's why I think Molitor should make him a 145 game a season guy, not a 155 game a season guy. Brian's a pretty small dude with a huge power swing. It certainly can't hurt him to get the occasional day off.

[TheLeviathan]

I never said he declined, I said he hasn't been very good for a sizable ongoing stretch.  Of course he had blips of good, but this is not a 58 PAS problem as some of you are painting.

[Willihammer]

Nevermind that we had this identical argument before the 2014 season... and then again before the 2015 season... and now it's... 2016. Here we are again.

This is all that needs to be said about Brian Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I never said he declined, I said he hasn't been very good for a sizable ongoing stretch. Of course he had blips of good, but this is not a 58 PAS problem as some of you are painting.

His problems last season were troublesome but I'm not convinced they're linked to his struggles this season. It's possible... But 58 PAs isn't going to sway me much.

[Vanimal46]

I can see your line of thinking, Brock. I also see Levi's argument, and lean more towards his side. Which is why I created this thread in the first place. When the games have mattered, over the last 3+ months in his professional career, Dozier just hasn't looked great at the plate. 

When does the argument transition from "give him time, it's early in a new season, he's been successful in the past" to "hmm, maybe there is something wrong. Are we seeing a decline? etc." Does it take a full calendar season of meh offensive stats? Nothing translates year over year? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When does the argument transition from "give him time, it's early in a new season, he's been successful in the past" to "hmm, maybe there is something wrong. Are we seeing a decline? etc." Does it take a full calendar season of meh offensive stats? Nothing translates year over year? 

When one three hit game and a homer won't catapult his OPS back near his career average.

 

If his OPS is still hovering around .600 when the end of May rolls around, then it's a problem. Right now, it's an oddity; something worth watching but not enough information to draw a conclusion.

[TheLeviathan]

3 hits and a Homer don't change 400 PAs, my point continues to be that limiting this discussion to 58 at bats is disingenuous.  This has been on going and last year provides context.  Since when do previous season trends get dismissed out of hand?  You playing by those rules all the time or only when it suits?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

3 hits and a Homer don't change 400 PAs, my point continues to be that limiting this discussion to 58 at bats is disingenuous.  This has been on going and last year provides context.  Since when do previous season trends get dismissed out of hand?  You playing by those rules all the time or only when it suits?

Tone down the aggression. Enough "cherry-picking" and "playing by those rules" crap.

 

Dozier struggled near the end of last season. There could literally be a dozen reasons why that happened and it's not out of the norm for Dozier to cool off a bit in the second half of a season. He had a .682 OPS in July of 2014, a .715 OPS in September of 2014, and a .678 OPS in September of 2013.

 

He's naturally a streaky hitter who could wear down, get banged up, or just lose focus as the season winds down. I don't know and neither do you.

 

The difference is that I'm not carrying over what happened 7-8 months ago and using that to prop up an argument based on 58 plate appearances.

 

If Dozier posts a .750 OPS for the next 50 PAs, this argument is moot. And do you realize how ridiculous that is? 50 bad PAs, 50 good PAs. Combined, that's still not even one full month of the baseball season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Last season, Dozier had a .598 OPS through the first 14 games of the season.

 

I simply don't understand why we're having this conversation again. Three years running, the same thing every April.

 

We're not even at the 10% mark of the season. Guys start slow. It happens. What happens in the next 10% of the season will be telling but right now, one good game puts Dozier near his career mark and no one cares anymore.

[TheLeviathan]

The argument isn't based on 58, that's you twisting it.  Literally no one is making that argument, quit knocking down that strawman.

 

I sure as hell care about Sano play 7 months ago when I evaluate his start.  I do about Dozier too, drawing some goofy line is deliberately moving the goal posts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I sure as hell care about Sano play 7 months ago when I evaluate his start.  I do about Dozier too, drawing some goofy line is deliberately moving the goal posts.

I'm not moving the goalposts, I'm saying there's a good chance it's not relevant to what is happening in the here and now.

[TheLeviathan]

And there is a good chance it is relevant, only the future is going to settle that but quit twisting the context of the point being made.

 

We agree  - play him and see.  But we are on a longer stretch of poor performance than 58 PAs.

[Linus]

Well at least we can put to rest that the Twins make everyone go the other way meme.

[DocBauer]

Can I play the role of middleman here? Dozier's start to the season is troubling and perlpexing. I think Levi and Brock both make excellent points and arguements. (Even if, at times, you both are arguing the same side of the coin).

 

IMHO, each of the past two seasons saw Dozier dip, inconsistent or not, in the second half. Again, IMO, this is probably, at least partially, attributable to being worn out as the Twins have relied on his daily presence and production too much. If it was simply due to adjustments made by the opposition, then why the strong first half in 2015? Surely nobody just decided to "go back" to the way they pitched him 2014.

 

With the numbers Brock has posted, I'm siding with him in this arguement for the time being, especially with Dozie having such a strong ST, (yes, I know such stats aren't always a true evaluation), and the overall struggles of so many of the Twins hitters the early part of the season.

 

I think Dozier, and many of the Twins hitters, are pressing and just missing right now. Now, if May-ish rolls around and we're seeing the same things, then I feel we have reason to worry.

[Reider]

Everyone is right to a degree. Dozier's play did fall off towards the end of 2015. He did have a very good spring training this year and yes it's also true that his regular season numbers this year are not good enough.

 

However, we all have a choice. We can panic now or be patient and give it more time. I do not believe it's time to panic yet. If his numbers are still this bad when June/July roll around, then there may be cause for concern. But in the middle of April? No.

[chopper0080]

My issue is that regardless of what side of the argument you fall on, Dozier has consistency issues.  This roster highlights those issues because it is comprised of several boom or bust type players.  If I am looking at this roster from an outside perspective, Sano, Park, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, and Buxton all have consistency issues which is a problem.  If you are looking to improve on the overall consistency of the roster as a whole, the natural player you should part with is Dozier.  It isn't that he isn't a good player, it is more that his issues are the same issues which you will get from the younger players who you are planning to build this team around long term.  That redundancy is a roster issue.

[ThejacKmp]

 

We are currently at his last 400 PAs at an OPS roughly around .600.  

 

What's ridiculous is thinking you can somehow limit this conversation to the 50 this season and pretend last season was injury.  That's convenient reasoning and cherry picking.

 

All I'm saying is that you can't say four consecutive months. Those months are not in fact consecutive by any definition of the word consecutive.

 

Other than that, all I'm asking for is some patience. No one is saying an injury definitely caused last year but in the absence of any other theory (he's getting similar pitches in similar areas so that's not it) and the caveat that the Twins' lack of 2B depth led them to play him every single day down the stretch even as he struggled, it's the most reasonable I've seen advanced thus far. He hit in spring training and now we have a small sample from this year where he was not particularly good.

 

Also, 400 AB is a bit overstating his slump. He had an .850 OPS as late as Jul 19 last year. That's a rather arbitrary place to start cutting things off but BR's game logs are really useful in showing stats day by day. July 21 is really where you start seeing a steady decline in his OPS with very little of the seesawing up and down of the first three weeks of July (when his OPS was a stellar .746). 

 

So a better cutoff spot for "Dozier's Slump".  That's 270 ABs in 2015 plus the 50 this year. That's 320 not 400. Now that's not a small number and this thread clearly shows there are reasons to pay attention to Dozier but a half season does not a pattern make - especially since at this point in 2015 he was hitting .192/.271/.327. He started slow last year before taking off on his way to the All-Star game and it could very well be the same in 2016.

 

Patience young grasshopper, patience.

[davidc3915]

Not that I'm insinuating that I am comparing the 2, but Ryne Sandberg usually stunk in April......

 

Reaching for any optimistic straw that I can find lying around......