What's Wrong with Brian Dozier?

[TheLeviathan]

So it's late May, have we crossed the magical threshold for worry yet?

[jorgenswest]

Compared to 2015, he has played enough this year to look at some rate data and pitch level data. His strike out rate has improved this year. His walk rate has improved this year. His swinging strike rate has improved. He is swinging at a lower rate of pitches out of the zone. It is a little early for ISO, but it has declined this year significantly. The slash stats need most of a full season to stabilize.

 

It takes a couple of full seasons of balls in play to consider BABIP. His career BABIP is .266 and this year it is .232. There may be some bad luck in that number.

[Kwak]

The league figured him out.  He got "fat" last year in the #1 slot with pitchers aiming a FB to get strike 1--and then got nailed!  The cookies have almost vanished and Dozier hasn't adjusted--very few swings to hit it to RF.  When Dozier changes his results will improve.

[Vanimal46]

So it's late May, have we crossed the magical threshold for worry yet?

Better wait until July when his trade value plummets to make an accurate analysis...

[Riverbrian]

More pulling outside pitches today from Brian Dozier. You can't send the kids down to AAA for their transgressions and yet continue to play Dozier everyday.

 

It's a double standard... Even Bert knows it up in the booth. 

 

UNCLE!!!

[Old Twins Cap]

Blame the kids, send them down.  Keep trotting out the Vets, they have proven they can get it done.

 

Total system failure means that every cog is either worn or broke.  Dozier has got to be on the radar at this point.

[Riverbrian]

 

So Gorg asks Paul in the post game interview about the 8th inning being a key moment with two on and nobody out. 

 

Paul Responds "Yeah... you know... we're a... umm...  we're trying some different things to get back in the game as far as either tie or go ahead and Brian got a count in his favor and (deep breath) umm... (Pause)... you know... just he rolled over a sinker and umm... and they got the double play and they brought in their closer and ah... one pitch and they were out of the inning. 

 

(No Comment from me... just posting the actual words from the horse). 

[Mr. Brooks]

I have to imagine the coaches have said something to Dozier about not trying to pull everything.

Since he continues to do so, I have to imagine the team will also leak to the media that Dozier doesn't take instruction.

Or, do they only do that with the young Latin players?

[jorgenswest]

They need to play Dozier through the All Star break. As Escobar returns send out Polanco to play AAA. He has 146 PAs and has been OK but not near dominant. They have had enough guys try to be successful in the majors with little or no AAA time.

 

After the All Star break, trade Dozier and Plouffe for whatever they will bring. Turn it over to Polanco, Buxton, Kepler and Murphy if they have demonstrated sustained success in AAA with particular attention to their ability to stay in the zone on breaking pitches.

 

The same can be said for Walker, Vargas and Rosario. Find a space for them if they have shown an ability to command the zone at AAA. That is 7 guys and it might be hard to clear that much space, but the reality is they won't all show the necessary understanding of the strike zone to be successful at the major leagues.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Better wait until July when his trade value plummets to make an accurate analysis...

 

Well yeah, he's only got 162 futile at-bats!  We need at least another two to three hundred this year to make a determination.  Afterall, last year happened in some other dimension that stops being counted the moment the season ends.

 

The story is out on this guy - pitch him up and pitch him outside and he'll get himself out.  

[jorgenswest]

Well yeah, he's only got 162 futile at-bats!  We need at least another two to three hundred this year to make a determination.  Afterall, last year happened in some other dimension that stops being counted the moment the season ends.

 

The story is out on this guy - pitch him up and pitch him outside and he'll get himself out.

 

We understand sample size and variability very differently.

[TheLeviathan]

 

We understand sample size and variability very differently.

 

In what way exactly?

[scottz]

Brian Dozier = Kurt Suzuki without the 1,000 hits?

[Mr. Brooks]

Another reason why last May was THE absolute worst thing that could possibly have happened to this organization.

Last year at the deadline he might have netted a pretty big haul.

Of course, Ryan might not have traded him, we'll never know, but he could have.

Now he MIGHT get a couple low A lottery tickets.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Brian Dozier = Kurt Suzuki without the 1,000 hits?

 

They've been eerily similar in production for the last 500 ABs or so.  I like Dozier, seems like a good guy and he's had some special moments, but yeesh.

[USAFChief]

I tend to think Dozier will figure it out, and is probably a better player than Polanco, at least over the next year or to.

 

However, one things for sure...Polanco needs to be playing, somewhere. If its not in Minnesota, he should be in Rochester.

[Danchat]

 

Another reason why last May was THE absolute worst thing that could possibly have happened to this organization.
Last year at the deadline he might have netted a pretty big haul.
Of course, Ryan might not have traded him, we'll never know, but he could have.
Now he MIGHT get a couple low A lottery tickets.

I understand selling high, but the Twins were one of the best teams in the AL when Dozier was on fire.

You don't trade your best batter at that point of the season - even if the haul would be great, it would be a slap in the face to the fans who finally wanted to have this team go into all-win mode.

 

Also, he was in the first year of a four year deal, so there was no way they were going to trade him. Teams almost never trade guys in the first year of a deal that's at least three years long.

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand selling high, but the Twins were one of the best teams in the AL when Dozier was on fire.

You don't trade your best batter at that point of the season - even if the haul would be great, it would be a slap in the face to the fans who finally wanted to have this team go into all-win mode.

 

 

Yeah, that's why I said last May was the worst thing that could have happened to us. It prevented us from having the option to trade him.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think the a Twins should have extended Dozier, but I don't fault them for not "selling high". If you constantly do that you'll never play at a high level. They were right (and are still right) to be trying to help him contribute.

 

But extending him, batting him first, and continuing to pretend there isn't something very wrong - those I find to be mistakes.

[Mr. Brooks]

I tend to think Dozier will figure it out, and is probably a better player than Polanco, at least over the next year or to.

 

However, one things for sure...Polanco needs to be playing, somewhere. If its not in Minnesota, he should be in Rochester.

Man, I realize some of these prospects have failed to perform this far but ouch, you must really have no faith in Polanco as a prospect.

Dozier is barely replacement level at this point, if Polanco can't at least meet that he'll be a bust.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think the a Twins should have extended Dozier, but I don't fault them for not "selling high". If you constantly do that you'll never play at a high level. They were right (and are still right) to be trying to help him contribute.

 

But extending him, batting him first, and continuing to pretend there isn't something very wrong - those I find to be mistakes.

I'm not asking them to constantly sell high, just once or twice would be nice.

[Reider]

My thought process on Brian Dozier over the last few years...

 

2012: Not a fan / not convinced about this Brian Dozier guy...

2013: Okay, I'll admit, I've seen some improvement from this Dozier guy...

2014: Whoa, Brian Dozier is really good, all of his hard work is paying off..

2015: Brian Dozier is great, this is his second or third good year in a row..

2016: .... What happened to Brian Dozier? .... And the rest of the team?....

[jorgenswest]

Man, I realize some of these prospects have failed to perform this far but ouch, you must really have no faith in Polanco as a prospect.

Dozier is barely replacement level at this point, if Polanco can't at least meet that he'll be a bust.

I read it very differently. Polanco has not had a chance to have sustained success in AAA. It is reasonable to expect that he will struggle given regular play in the majors over the next year or so. That's quite different from having no faith.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm not asking them to constantly sell high, just once or twice would be nice.

 

Perhaps that should have happened more when they are rebuilding, but you don't do that while you are contending (flukey month or not) with your best player.

[Mr. Brooks]

Perhaps that should have happened more when they are rebuilding, but you don't do that while you are contending (flukey month or not) with your best player.

Again,I know that. That is the whole point of my post. That last May prevented Ryan from being able to at least listen to offers.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Again? I know that. That is the whole point of my post. That last May prevented Ryan from being able to at least listen to offers.

 

But you implied more than that.  Even if they weren't contending, Dozier was in a position with his team control and his position that you don't trade that player.  He's a guy you could have planned to build around if he had maintained his production.  The team had plenty of time to wait Dozier out to see what he would do as he progressed, but dealing him there (contending or not) is silly.

 

And it's a silly criticism.  We have plenty of fair and reasonable things to criticize.  We don't have to go batty.

[Mr. Brooks]

I read it very differently. Polanco has not had a chance to have sustained success in AAA. It is reasonable to expect that he will struggle given regular play in the majors over the next year or so. That's quite different from having no faith.

Yes of course he will have his struggles, I agree.

But;

 

1) Chief is talking over 2 years, not immediately. I think by the latter part of that 2 years he'd be the far superior player.

 

2) Polanco could struggle quite badly and still be close to as good as Dozier is right now.

[Mr. Brooks]

But you implied more than that. Even if they weren't contending, Dozier was in a position with his team control and his position that you don't trade that player. He's a guy you could have planned to build around if he had maintained his production. The team had plenty of time to wait Dozier out to see what he would do as he progressed, but dealing him there (contending or not) is silly.

 

And it's a silly criticism. We have plenty of fair and reasonable things to criticize. We don't have to go batty.

Well I guess we just disagree on this issue.

IMO, Dozier last year is nearly a perfect trade candidate.

(If our record was poor!!)

Span still had multiple years remaining when we traded him, so I don't think the contract matters much.

[Mr. Brooks]

 

 

And it's a silly criticism. We have plenty of fair and reasonable things to criticize. We don't have to go batty.

I think you misunderstand me, please re read my original post.

Im not criticizing anything. Of course Terry had no option of trading him.

I was merely lamenting our bad luck in ripping off 20 fluke wins in May.

[Guest]

Now with Polanco up, Dozier needs to ride the pine for a few days to clear his head...

Thrills' comment was more than a month ago, yet things are unchanged. Wasting a year of Polanco's development, which, like other wastes this year, could have long-term consequences. The final year of Ruben Amaro, Jr. with the Phillies is looking strategic, in comparison.