This bullpen is bad

[Platoon]

Many "pundits" pointed out that the Twins outplayed their statistically dictated level last year, and attributed that to "luck", or more precisely, timing their hits to coincide with men being on base. The idea is that hitting with men on base is not a particular skill, and that its occurrence will normalize over time. The more interesting issue in this early going is the extraordinary amount of strikeouts that the Twins are producing. Both tendencies - not producing with men on base, and prolific strikeouts - are frustrating for fans. But think of it this way: if you don't have the periods of frustration, you will not enjoy the cycles of success nearly as much. Just wait - it will be boring to be a Cubs fan soon.

I easily admit I am not a stat head. So I am sure there are numbers that will support/refute this. I never thought that some guys could hit "better" in RBI situations, but that some hit worse. It's not the amping yourself up, it's the calming yourself down. Like the guy who hits the shot at the end of a basketball game, some guys are calm and shoot in their natural motion, some can't hardly let go of the ball. You can't will yourself to exceed your ability, but you can calm yourself to match it.

[notoriousgod71]

Either the bullpen is letting us down or the offense is letting us down.

 

One man is responsible for the roster construction of both.

[twinssporto]

I'm really not that concerned with the bullpen at this point.  A couple of thoughts: 

 

1.  It's been proven that an excellent bullpen can be constructed from your existing players in the minors or starters that fail at starting.  Take a look at all of the excellent (top tier) relief guys in MLB.  Most were starters and one point in their careers and eventually moved to the bullpen.  In addition, why spend huge dollars on these types?  If you want to fix this bullpen start pulling some of the guys up from AAA and AA.  Realistically what is the risk?

 

2.  The 0-4 start in my opinion is based more on the terrible at bats than the bullpen.  Bruno needs to get these guys to make more contact (less strikeouts) and lay-off the high fastball junk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yup Clippard was an All Star, so wasn't Mauer. Jepsen versus Clippard. One has 17 wn saves in 391 games, the other has 53 blown saves in 490 games. Sorry, Jepsen blows less.

Not sure if serious, but:

 

- your numbers are incorrect (looking at wrong column? Clippard has 53 saves, and only 38 blown saves)

- total games pitched obviously doesn't indicate opportunities for blown saves (some pitchers are brought in tied or trailing more often, or leading by more than 3 runs, in which case it is impossible to blow a save) -- fortunately B-Ref keeps track of "SVSit" which is any save situation the pitcher enters

- setup man numbers should include holds (where a lead was preserved in a save situation, even if they pitcher didn't finish the game to get the save)

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jepseke01-pitch.shtml#pitching_reliever::none

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clippty01-pitch.shtml#pitching_reliever::none

 

Using those numbers, we see that both pitchers have roughly the same percentage of (holds + saves) divided by save situations.  Jepsen is about 4% higher, but he's also about 11% lower in rate of opportunity (save situations divided by total relief games), so it's basically a wash.  By WAR, which factors in leverage and opportunity, Clippard has 6 of his last 7 seasons at 1.2 WAR or greater -- really a pretty incredible run of quality setup pitching.  Jepsen has met that mark (or even come close) only twice in his career.

 

I don't think there is a great Clippard over Jepsen argument, but there is a fantastic Clippard (or other affordable reliever) PLUS Jepsen argument, which would reduce our reliance on Jepsen.

[ashbury]

Either the bullpen is letting us down or the offense is letting us down.

 

One man is responsible for the roster construction of both.

It's only 4 games, so everything is Small Sample Size as yet. Still, the stats tell us pretty clearly why the team is 0-4.

 

League total: ERA 4.22

Team ERA: 4.13

Starting pitchers: ERA 4.26

Relief pitchers: ERA 3.97

League OPS: .698

Team OPS: .660

Team OPS with bases empty: .893

Team OPS with men on base: .318

Team OPS with runners in scoring position: .279

 

They're batting .096 with men on base. Without bothering to look it up, I'll venture to say no team in history has been so un-clutch for a season. Last season the same guys were better with men on base than bases empty.

 

This will pass.

 

Meanwhile the bullpen has been given nothing but razor thin situations to protect, and two guys in particular have been poor in their two games.

 

There is not much scope for sweeping generalizations at this point.

 

 

 

 

[jokin]

 

Yup Clippard was an All Star, so wasn't Mauer. Jepsen versus Clippard. One has 17 wn saves in 391 games, the other has 53 blown saves in 490 games. Sorry, Jepsen blows less.

 

Factually incorrect, Clippard has 38 blown saves, not 53.

 

Jepsen has 18 BS, not 17.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Indeed it is! Extra frustrating when TR points that out last November and then does nothing! Molli's usage of the bullpen has been just as aggravating.

 

Bullpen is an issue, but less so than the hitting. Tough to win many games when your scoring 2.5 runs per game

[jokin]

Further debunking stats:

 

Clippard career OBA- .187 ERA+- 139

 

Jepsen career OBA- ..243 ERA+- 108

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

Indeed it is! Extra frustrating when TR points that out last November and then does nothing! Molli's usage of the bullpen has been just as aggravating.

Bullpen is an issue, but less so than the hitting. Tough to win many games when your scoring 2.5 runs per game

I agree, Sconnie. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's only 4 games, so everything is Small Sample Size as yet. Still, the stats tell us pretty clearly why the team is 0-4.

 

League total: ERA 4.22

Team ERA: 4.13

Starting pitchers: ERA 4.26

Relief pitchers: ERA 3.97

 

League OPS: .698

Team OPS: .660

Team OPS with bases empty: .893

Team OPS with men on base: .318

Team OPS with runners in scoring position: .279

 

They're batting .096 with men on base. Without bothering to look it up, I'll venture to say no team in history has been so un-clutch for a season. Last season the same guys were better with men on base than bases empty.

 

This will pass.

 

Meanwhile the bullpen has been given nothing but razor thin situations to protect, and two guys in particular have been poor in their two games.

 

There is not much scope for sweeping generalizations at this point.

Well said all around. The Twins' BaseRuns record is 2-2. For all intents and purposes, everyone has done an okay job with the bases empty and a horrible job with the bases occupied.

 

And that won't hold up forever.

[Intramural Legend]

 

Having a thread entitled "this bullpen sucks" doesn't lend itself to a very TD comment-policy-friendly discussion.

 

 

Is there an ignore feature that can be enabled?

[jokin]

 

Is there an ignore feature that can be enabled?

 

"Yes", but why miss out on all of the fun?

[Rosterman]

And, hey, we haven't seen Tonkin and Perkins yet!

 

On the plus side, except for all the base-on-balls, the rotation (or at least two-thirds) is what we expected.

[jokin]

 

And, hey, we haven't seen Tonkin and Perkins yet!

 

On the plus side, except for all the base-on-balls, the rotation (or at least two-thirds) is what we expected.

 

Or at least three-fifths? (Rounding error?)

 

Tonkin and Perkins bring their own set of concerns to this issue- if they both shine, Fien's and Jepsen's travails can be minimized, if they also struggle, more drastic measures will be immediately necessary to salvage the season.

 

FYI, last night DickNBert were actually already mentioning concern about a possibly looming need for a 13th pitcher... even though Tonkin's and Perkin's faces are beginning to appear on local milk cartons.

[mikelink45]

I am looking to this site to keep me up to date as I spend the first two months of the season in Europe, but as I read these dire emotional notes I wonder if I have missed a month instead of a series all ready.  I accuse TR of no reaction, but I would like to reach game ten before hitting the panic button.   The  national predictions had us struggling to reach 500 and I thought that was a good prediction just as I felt last year was a little dangerous since is set up too much optimism.   

[DocBauer]

1} Despite generally liking the job TR has done, and does, I have been quick to jump on him previously for short sightedness in regard to CF, and both last year and this year in regard to the bullpen.

 

May should be in the rotation since the team should have acquired another strong reliever to take his spot. Ditto for a LHRP instead of Fien, for example. Abad may do a good job. But he's not only not a certainty, but isn't a pen better with 2 quality lefties?

 

Yeah, you have promising youngsters on their way. But how close? When? In the meantime, you build the best staff you can, and you trade away assets when the youngsters are ready.

 

2] These 4 losses stink. But they are close games, lost by only a run or two, and with horrible situational hitting. To just blast the bullpen for the losses outright at this point is very knee jerk. Just a couple clutch hits and we're at least 2-2.

 

3] Come on...losing your first 4 stinks, but it's only 4 games, on the road, and a couple played with weird weather conditions. If you are this strung out after 4 games I'd advise avoiding close proximity to any bridges.

 

Remember when last year's contending team looked like the worst Twins team ever at 1-7 with embarrassment after embarrassment on the field and we wondered how they ever won the one game?

 

We are already of to a better start. Lol

[Hrbowski]

This article is about the Padres, but the general sentiment can apply to the Twins:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-universal-meaninglessness-of-the-padres-opening-series/

[ashbury]

This article is about the Padres, but the general sentiment can apply to the Twins:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-universal-meaninglessness-of-the-padres-opening-series/

And then the Pads went out and scored 13. Please, can someone at Fangraphs write an article about our team next?

[jorgenswest]

The Twins bullpen has pitcher 13 2/3 innings and has given up 6 runs which puts them somewhere in the middle by performance.

 

The Twins starters have pitched 19 innings and given up 9 runs which also puts them in the middle.

 

The Twins offense has scored 9 runs in 4 games which is 1 run better than the Angels but not anyone else.

[h2oface]

This team is just bad right now. Mostly the offense is really bad for 4 games. But there is not a team flow that wins. It is getting real old to watch this team come out of spring training with what appears to be promise, and then fail. Whether Gardenhire or Molitor is manager, Hunter is brought back to dance, Sano is in right field or Schafer is in center, Santana is suspended for cheating or gets rewarded the next season with the opening day start, Dozier thinks he is a leader or is anointed the team leader, D-san starts at short or Escobar does, catchers play the outfield or actually catch, or the bullpen sucks or the bullpen sucks.......... this team just doesn't seem to be able to be ready when the season actually starts and the games count. It is really frustrating as a fan.

[Raven]

I don't really understand why anybody is surprised with the bullpen so far.  We are seeing exactly what we saw in spring training and at the end of the 2015 season.  Jepsen could be okay IF he can hit his spots for more than 1 batter.  I would like to think he can, but any good outings from Fien and Tonkins should be thought of as a treat, not what's to be expected. Pressly should be all right.  I think part of this bullpen group was thrown together in the hopes that they could hold together for a couple months while some of the young guns got seasoned a bit more in the minors.  It's only been 4 games after all - we haven't even gotten a game where Perkins could be used yet!  As far as Tonkins - I'd rather not see him at all.  

 

There may be a lingering predictable stink but we can't say the bullpen sucks - not yet anyway.

[Kwak]

 

The Twins bullpen has pitcher 13 2/3 innings and has given up 6 runs which puts them somewhere in the middle by performance.

The Twins starters have pitched 19 innings and given up 9 runs which also puts them in the middle.

The Twins offense has scored 9 runs in 4 games which is 1 run better than the Angels but not anyone else.

The bullpen is MLB average (or so) yet the thread claims "the bullpen is bad".  It sounds to me that what we have is a pre-existing opinion searching for (but not having!) facts to support said opinion.  Some RP names are tossed about as if they would make a difference if they were a Twins pitcher--including the assumption that said pitcher would actually be a Twins pitcher!  But,  for beer hall discussion ....

[alskntwnsfn]

Obviously the offense can and will do better. The problem is we lost two very winnable games where the bullpen blew the lead. Good bullpens will blow some leads from time to time, but this is not a good bullpen and hasn't been for quite awhile. Because of that, fans like us will rightly gripe when the bullpen doesn't do it's job.

 

The situation is not the result of injury, but rather poor planning. And THAT, is infinitely more frustrating than a few losses. How can we expect to win if we are not maximizing our chances. This was so clearly an area of need.

[DaveW]

Fien shouldn't be given another day in a twins uniform.

[Primetime82]

 

Fien shouldn't be given another day in a twins uniform.

 

You got that right!!

 

Also, I've said it multiple times but Glen Perkins is done being elite. That fastball won't ever come back. You could even hear it in Bert's voice the concern he has for Glen and that fastball. He still has value though, he would be a nice lefty specialist

[alarp33]

Fien shouldn't be given another day in a twins uniform.

There's 2.3 million reasons he will be!

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

There's 2.3 million reasons he will be!

 

Huh? This got me thinking ...

 

Is there a good contract on the Twins roster? (called up prospects don't count)

 

E. Santana - maybe (not counting that little PED thing)

Hughes & Suzuki extensions - NO

Perkins deal - NO, but hey, he's funny and from MN (eye roll!)

Nolasco - duh

Mauer - won't go there

Plouffe - we moved our stud prospect in order keep an arbitration guy

Anybody in the bullpen - hey Abad's looked good over a few innings

Dozier - I guess I can give them that one

[DJSim22]

A young line up that doesn't walk and strikes out a ton.  People should have been expecting that, it is what they wanted.  People would wanted all the youth better be patient, it's going to be a long April.

[USAFChief]

Perkins looked worse than Fien tonight. Topped out at 92, dropped down to as low as 89. Slider was rolling up there. No command. Lets hope it was an aberration, because he won't be successful bringing that to the table.

[beckmt]

I am much more concerned with the hitting than the pitching.  Scouts and pitching coaches of other teams had the winter to look at the Twins.  What you are seeing now is the book on Twins hitters and major league good pitchers can pitch to the book.  Twins hitters are going to have to make adjustments or this is going to be a long year.  Future of Twins going forward is to see how the kids react and how adjustments are made.  Less than 2 runs a game is not going to cut it, and we have not see a club with above average starting pitching yet(Baltimore and KC are both rated in the lower third).  Hang on.