How many W's in 2016?

[FunnyPenguin]

I know there is a ton of "ifs" in the roster but what do we think the Twins win total will be in 2016?

 

Here's what I think:

• Sano will have a strong 30 homer .265 BA campaign at the heart of the lineup
• Rosario will have hot streaks and cold streaks but finish .270/.290/.350 with 15 triples and 10 dingers
• Dozier will do .245 with 28 dingers
• Buxton's struggles continue for a few games and then his potential kicks in, hits .280 and 10 dingers in 105 games.
• Park struggles quite a bit but flashes potential, hits 18 homers and .230 BA
• Hughes will be a bit less than average, Santana our ace, Nolasco won't exist, Gibson will be a solid but not dependable #3, Berrios promoted in August and does well, Duffey will regress a bit as his curveball gets more well know but finish with 3.85 ERA.
• Glen Perkins will find himself again and be a solid closer and we'll have a middle of the road bull pen.
• No ifs, ands or buts, the AL Central is going to be a nasty place to abide in 2016, assuming the WSox can put it together.

 

I know I didn't cover everything but just wanted to get some ideas going.

 

All this being said, my prediction will be a 84-78 record, which could change by further offseason moves.  What do others think?

[Dr. Evil]

80-82

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think if they had traded Milone for some relief help (or flipped him for prospects and signed a reliever) and put May in the rotation, we'd be in a lot better shape.  I think most of the moves made have a long term perspective, but are probably a net 0 to slightly positive for a team that overachieved a bit last year.  I think 80-85 as it's constructed now is most likely, especially with an improved central. 

[Kwak]

Since they will begin the season with:  a questionable OF, a mediocre rotation that might not include Duffey, a bullpen that is iffy, and the opponents are fully aware of Dozier's hitting, April will be a losing month.  May will not be the "turnaround" like last year.  The team will toy with a  .500 record until the bullpen is torn apart (like every year) due to overuse caused by short starts and the use of too many RP's per game--then things get tough.  Salvation comes in September with an expanded roster--but only enough to avoid a total eclipse.  75 wins.

[Major League Ready]

A lot depends on Hughes and Nolasco.  If we get the 2014 edition of them, 78 wins.  If we get 2014 Hughes, 81 wins.  If we get 2009-2012 Nolasco and 2014 Hughes, 84 wins.

 

Mauer bouncing back seems like a realistic wish.  That could add a win or 2.

 

I would love to see Arcia show up in the best shape of his life and surprise everyone with improved defensive play and be the offensive player we all hoped for.  That would be big for this team but far less likely than Mauer bouncing back.

 

I will also being pulling big time for JR Murphy just because I think he was judged prematurely here and I don't want Suzuki vesting.

 

There is also plenty of time for a trade for a RP.  I would bet even money that Plouffe or Milone get traded for a good RP.

 

[notoriousgod71]

 

Since they will begin the season with:  a questionable OF, a mediocre rotation that might not include Duffey, a bullpen that is iffy, and the opponents are fully aware of Dozier's hitting, April will be a losing month.  May will not be the "turnaround" like last year.  The team will toy with a  .500 record until the bullpen is torn apart (like every year) due to overuse caused by short starts and the use of too many RP's per game--then things get tough.  Salvation comes in September with an expanded roster--but only enough to avoid a total eclipse.  75 wins.

 

This.

[blindeke]

Sano in the OF is not a good idea and that will become apparent as the pitching staff looks bad for the first half of the season. Not sure what will happen next. .500 team is a good ballpark.

[BrianTrottier]

 

yeah, I think if they had traded Milone for some relief help (or flipped him for prospects and signed a reliever) and put May in the rotation, we'd be in a lot better shape.

 

It's still only December.

[SwainZag]

A lot of pessimism for predictions considering it's not even Christmas.  

 

Here's a reminder.  This was the Opening Day roster last season.  "This" team went on to win 83 games.

 

STARTING PITCHERS
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
Ricky Nolasco
Kyle Gibson
Tommy Milone

RELIEF PITCHERS
Glen Perkins
Casey Fien
Brian Duensing
Aaron Thompson
Blaine Boyer
Tim Stauffer
JR Graham

CATCHERS
Kurt Suzuki
Chris Herrmann
 

 

INFIELDERS
Joe Mauer
Brian Dozier
Trevor Plouffe
Danny Santana
Eduardo Escobar
Eduardo Nunez
Kennys Vargas

OUTFIELDERS
Oswaldo Arcia
Jordan Schafer
Torii Hunter
Shane Robinson

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

A lot of pessimism for predictions considering it's not even Christmas.  

 

Here's a reminder.  This was the Opening Day roster last season.  "This" team went on to win 83 games.

 

.....

 

Well, when you put it that way...

 

The Starting rotation looks better (Duffey & Berrios)

The Bullpen should be better (could it really be worse?)

The catching should improve, at least offensively

Infield change we know of is Park for Santana = probably better, potentially by a orders of magnitude

Outfield is absolutely better offensively and probably defensively

 

Hmmm... Damn SwainZag. Now I have to think.

 

[gunnarthor]

I thought last years team would be about a .500ish team and they've improved (and othe AL central teams got worse) so I think they should win 85 or more. 

[JustinCB]

162-0

[Rosterman]

What can we expect from the rotation:

 

DREAM W-L records

 

Ervin Santana 18-10 (probably 12-13)

Phil Hughes 19-8 (probably 15-14)

Kyle Gibson 16-11 (probably 12-12)

Tom Milone 8-7 (probably 6-10)

Tyler Duffey 12-8 (probably 6-6)

Ricky Noalsco 21-7 (probably 1-7)

 

 

Unless the offense really picks up and is dominate, the Twins have a starting rotation capable of pitching to a .500 win/loss record. You'd like to see the starters bring in at east 65 wins, 70 or more if possible...leaving the bullpen to cobble together 15-20 wins between them.

 

The Twins still will need to score 4 or more runs a game to get a win. Every game.

 

[Vanimal46]

I'd like to see more than one hot month from this team. Their month of May last year banked them 8-10 wins alone, and the other months other than May they were hovering around .500 or a losing record.

 

If they have more than a month of good success, then I'd be willing to say 85+ wins. We'll see how it goes.

[JA]

Well it"s easy to be fairly pessimistic with the lack of sexy moves. However, this roster doesn't, or didn't need too many upgrades.  A fairly set rotation with some real credible depth and upside, a bullpen with key contributors, with a few minor holes, and an everyday line-up with average to above average offense and defense at most set positions.

There are many questions that need to be answered, but all teams do. The positive thing is the Twins have a lot of youthful depth. Will it all turn out positive? Of course not, will everyone flame out, no again. With relative health and a few surprises, this should be a contending year. And with a contending year, you never know what can happen.

 

[howieramone2]

90-72

 

Our favorite team is going to average 90 wins for the next 6-8 years.

[Platoon]

162-0

That's all well and good, but what if they tie for the division lead? Game 163? Who wins?

[bluechipper]

I'm going to disagree with the original prediction of Berrios not being up until August. I would predict more in May or June at the latest.

 

I'm very optimistic about this year. 89 wins.

[sftwinsfan]

I think this team is going to fall flat on its face early in the season.  Then pick things up a bit in the 2nd half with better contributions from players such as Buxton, Park, Berrios, and possibly a young reliever or two.  

 

I think this team will struggle to score runs.  The old Mauer just is not coming back, he looks like he's 33 going on 50.  All his time catching has taken a toll on his body and he's just not aging gracefully.  Park will likely struggle badly early on as he adjusts to the league.  The bullpen isn't very good, especially with Perkins being a question mark.  They either have no CF or will throw Buxton to the wolves as he was completely over-matched last season at the plate.  Hughes is a question mark-will he have his fastball?  They will probably try to trot out Ricky Nolasco in the rotation.  Early season could see two DH's playing in the OF at the same time (Arcia, Sano).

 

I hope I'm wrong, but that's what I'm expecting.  I think they were a bit lucky last year and expectations have perhaps unfairly been raised too high for 2016.  I see this team being competitive again for the postseason in 2017.  I'm predicting 78-84 with everyone predicting the sky is falling in the first two months while quietly playing slightly above .500 baseball in the 2nd half as some of their young talent arrives and makes adjustments.

[Hrbowski]

 

That's all well and good, but what if they tie for the division lead? Game 163? Who wins?

We play all of the teams in our division, so if we go 162-0, no team in our division can tie with us.

[Hrbowski]

My prediction is 100-62.

[TheLeviathan]

Young team, I see some steps back and forward leading to a roughly similar team. So assuming they don't have one insanely lucky month I think they finish with 78-80 wins at this point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's still only December.

 

Yes, it is. And I'm holding out hope here that things change, but given how quickly Ryan has moved the last couple seasons following what little was done after that, I have a sneaking suspicion that other than perhaps another RP signing, Ryan is done. I really hope not. I think the team would be better served by trading Milone for either prospects or a reliever, signing a reliever if the trade was for prospects, and moving May to the rotation. Milone has been a decent pitcher, but he's a 4/5 guy. We need more upside in the rotation. I'm somewhat confident in Hughes and Santana, and I have hope that Gibson can be at least average, but beyond that, not as much.

[EddieMatthews]

The 2015 Twins were at best a .500 team given the players on the team.  Molitor and his coaches added about 6 wins net through team management and attitudes.  Granted, these are intangibles, but expect the same in 2016.  The Twins roster at this point has about the same plusses and minuses.  Someone will need to step into the attitude void left by Torii's departure.  

 

The larger factor is that the Central Division will see improvement.  Half of the games are within the division.  KC will be strong, Cleveland should improve, Houston also, ChiSox are ramping up their lineup, and the Tigers have cleaned house.  

 

Prediction: 78-84, but a very competitive team.

[Craig Arko]

T-w-e-n-t-y S-i-x-t-e-e-n

 

Looks like one to me.

[ashbury]

Wide range of possible outcomes for this team. I would be surprised if they didn't win 75. I would be surprised if they did win 90. I guess splitting the difference would put us at about 82. Though there's a corner in my head that keeps telling me 78, that the pieces for the eventual WS winner are just about there but not yet ready.

[Thegrin]

Somewhere between 75 and 100 wins is most likely. It depends on if we win enough games against top starters.

[GMinTraining]

91-71

 

We had great rookie performances in each of the last 2 years.  I expect some more outstanding rookie performances in 2016 (led by Buxton and a ton of relief help).  "Belief is a powerful drug"

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmm, I'm still thinking 81-83 wins at this point. I don't see the lucky month of May repeating itself. 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Hmmmm, I'm still thinking 81-83 wins at this point. I don't see the lucky month of May repeating itself. 

Not really sure it's fair to call it a "lucky month."  Most teams have a hot stretch.  Houston started the season 25-13 and played sub .500 ball (61-63) the rest of the way.  Twins had a nearly good 38 game stretch in May/June and played about the same (60-64) the rest of the season.  Cutting the season into arbitrary endpoints (in this case, months) doesn't really tell us much.