2016 Twins Rotation: Should, Could and How to Improve

[DocBauer]

I think it's time to go ahead and tackle this topic.

 

It's no secret that one of the prime reasons the Twins improved from a 90+ loss team to an 80+ Wildcard contender is they put together the best overall starting rotation they have had in years. It was downright respectable! And there were very few of the 3rd inning blowout sogoaheadandturnthestationorgettoyourhoneydolistsinceyouhadnothingbettertodo games. Despite a down-ish year from Hughes, half a season from Santana, brief contributions from Nolasco, May being removed from the rotation, having to actually depend on Mike Pelfrey every 5th day, and assorted injuries late in the season, the Twins were very close to shaving a run off their ERA from the year before. Imagine what better health, Santana for a full season and just a little better luck here and there could have meant?!

 

But while we know how important pitching is to the game, while we are all a bit giddy that our beloved Twins actually had some and may have more coming, there is still a thought of "more" floating out there. As in more=better. What can we do to take that next step? So the questions for 2016 and the Twins starting rotation are: Should we try to get better? Can we really get better? How much better can we be and how do we get there?

 

First, let's look at what is in house:

 

1) Phil Hughes. He was an outstanding FA acquisition for 2014 and had probably the best year of his career. His "pedigree" is outstanding, probably as strong as feelings of frustration over inconsistency in his career. But he has won 15 games 3 times, an OK AL ERA, a solid Whip, and excellent SO/BB ratio. After a bit of a slow start in '14 he was excellent. In '15 his slow start lingered a bit longer, and while he never quite hit his '14 stride, he actually pitched very well for about half a season before injuries slowed and shelved him. Talented, strapping and happy in Minnesota, I think a return to his 2014 numbers, or close, is not to be unexpected if healthy.

 

2) Ervin Santana. There is no question only half season from Santana was greatly disappointing. Despite the surprise first half contributions from Pelfrey, you almost have to believe having Santana for the full season would have been worth at least a couple more wins. An examination of Santana's career shows him to be very, very consistent. You can almost guarantee 32 GS, 195-ish IP, 165 SO and at least 13 wins with a shot at 14-17 if on a quality team. There are no guarantees, of course, but he seems healthy and fit for 2016 after his half season with the Twins. Looking beyond a couple weeks in August when he was very much off, he sandwiched some outstanding pitching to begin and end his inaugural Twins season.

 

3) Kyle Gibson. I get frustrated when people jump on Gibson. He is not exactly old, lost a season to TJ surgery, made a hell of a quick recovery back to the mound and competence, and has only pitched 2 seasons in the ML. And all he has done is pitch solid one year, pitch even better the second year, and at various times has been the Twins best starter. In his 2 ML seasons, Gibson has had moments of brilliance where he looks like a possible #1, and no worse than a quality #2 SP. Now, he's not really going to be a #1 pitcher, more than likely, but the point is how good he can be at times...that he is still improving...and really just needs a little more consistency. Only 2 years in the league, I think we can count on some additional improvement.

 

4) May. He might look great in the bullpen, but you just don't take a young arm talent like him out of the rotation until or unless you don't have a choice. The control issues that we heard would hold him back from being a top of the rotation starter have been curtailed. He showed real sign of improvement when still in the rotation, and lead the Twins in several categories.

 

5) Duffey. Converted from relief, the curveball specialist...along with Sano...almost single-handedly preserved the Twins second half last season. He was darn near "Ace-like" during his couple months of performances. I don't think anyone expects him to be a top rotation SP, but is what he showed all sustainable? Even close? We sure need to find out and he deserves the chance to prove it.

 

6) Milone. He is nothing special. But he is a pitcher. And he showed, when healthy, why he has won previously despite pedestrian stuff. Simply, he appears to be a very solid be counted back of the rotation contributor that can win. But he also has the least upside of any candidate here. And with a few breakdowns here and there, I wonder if he might be best as a swing man.

 

7) Berrios. I believe he has a very solid chance to break with the club. What could hold him back is not service time, but rather, a logjam of options in the rotation and bullpen and the Twins letting him get a month in AAA while they sort through various options.

 

8) Nolasco. A big wild card. He is not a bad pitcher. The majority of his career has been unspectacular, but very solid and consistent. But he must have signed his Twins contract with a cursed pen. He could help. He could surprise. He could be needed if an injury bug suddenly hits the Twins in ST. But otherwise...this is the one guy the Twins should be trying to move in any manner they can.

 

If you accept the numbers provided by MLTraderumors, the Twins would enter 2016 about $10M under the top payroll the team has ever had. Could and would the Twins be willing to top that mark? I believe they would. While not earth shattering, the Twins have added payroll before when the addition(s) in question meant winning. Also, said highest payroll ever will have been 5 years removed. Inflation and all don't ya know! But how much higher than $10M might they go? Another $10M? That gives you $20M for a top of the rotation starter, but with needs still in the bullpen, and probably a bench bat, maybe help at catcher in the form of a FA as well.

 

If you can move Nolasco, and say it only costs you half his salary each of the next 2 years to do so, you save another $6M. Based on projections, if you trade Plouffe as part of a deal somewhere, you save another $7M. That's another $13M or so, and you could add a couple more if they let Fien go. But you still have to address the pen, catcher, and maybe the bench as well, at some point. And if Plouffe is traded, do we then need to consider a DH signing?

 

The whole point is the Twins have needs, assets, and also money to spend. But it's also a business. The Pohlads will not break out their American Express card for $20M per for 6 years on a player. Nor would anyone.

 

The Twins have 3 choices here:

 

1) Trade 3-5 prospects/players for a young-ish top of the rotation SP to push their rotation and the team over the top. This allows your relative "choice" of said player, and possibly more cost control for the next 2-5 years. But you are going to lose 1 of Berrios, May, Gibson or Duffey for sure, probably Kepler, another milb pitcher or two, etc. Does this acquisition improve the team enough to warrant the cost in dollars and prospects?

 

2) Keep the prospects for yourself or additional moves, and fork out $18-23M for 5-6 years for a 30-32 yo FA SP. You've got, in theory, $10M to work with though, and another $13-15M if you can swing some moves. Could you possibly move Hughes or Santana as well as Nolasco? Because we still have finances to consider as well as additional additions.

 

3) Stay your hand. You move Nolasco. You may move Plouffe for additional help. But you believe in and trust a rebound for Hughes, Santana to keep on keeping on, Gibson, May, Duffey to continue to improve and make way for young stud Berrios. You re-in force the pen, add to catcher, possibly add a bench player or DH, and feel secure that you have a talent, deep, and mostly young rotation that would only be improved somewhat by another veteran starter. As long as what you have is healthy.

 

Those are the rotation candidates. The team really has 3 options to consider in all of this. Should the team make a big move? Which option? How much does it improve the team?

 

It's all your call.

[h2oface]

You think a lot more highly of the starting pitching staff than I do.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm more of the mind that some of those SP's need to be moved or at least dangled, to other teams.  In some cases like Nolasco, I'd see if I could buy out his contract.  There's nothing to see there anymore.  Hughes has a record of good, followed by bad seasons.  The large K to BB ratio isn't necessarily a good thing.  Very few walks is a sure indicator that he's pumping the strike zone.  Hitter do notice.  

Pelfry is gone.  At the least, I'd like to see Duffey and May in the rotation, with a veteran of choice holding a spot for Berrios.

[Willihammer]

Option 1. The game has gotten younger and the Twins have an abundance of youth. I would try like hell to keep Berrios out of any trade, but pretty much everyone else should be on the table IMO.

[jorgenswest]

Santana's strike out rate dropped and walk rate increased as happens with age. It reasonable to expect further decline particularly with an entire season of use. There is also an increased likelihood of injury as he ages. The Twins need to plan for that decline as they look at next year. I would think the performance above would be a top quartile projection.

[stringer bell]

Doc profiled eight pitchers, seven of whom started games for the Twins while the departed Pelfrey started 30 games. I don't think eight is too many and further I don't think there is much depth past the eight listed candidates. If I'm Twins management, I keep all the starters, begin the season with Berrios in the minors and two of them in the bullpen (May and most likely Duffey). That is the blueprint, but if situations warrant, changes can be made.

[Thrylos]

Here is the Twins' problem:  Their rotation (and starting pitcher player acquisition strategy - 5/8 of those names are not home grown) has emphasized quality over quantity.   In this list (other than Berrios who is untested) there is nobody who would be even a number 2 in any of the teams that made the 2015 post-season.  If you have a rotation with a bunch of number 3s and 4s and 5s and AAAA guys, you will not win and if you do, you will not go far in the post-season.

 

I'd add another name to the equation, the one who has the highest potential of them all in the Twins' organization, but it forgotten for some reason:  Alex Meyer.  He is on the 40-man roster, he should be handed the ball in the Spring and I hope that he has something to prove.  So you got 9.

 

You got to get rid of quality and focus on quantity.  May and Hughes have proven that they can be very good (May) to lights out (Hughes as a Yankee) relievers.  Add Jepsen and Perkins and you got 4 good plus relievers (depending how Perkins health is.)  So you are solving another problem (but still need 3 more arms, at least one of them should be a lefty.) Two of the 9 down. 

 

Still too many.  Got to trade 2.  And got to sell as high as you can and go with ceiling.  That would be Santana and Milone.  Trade for salary relief.  This leaves you with 5, but without an ace. 

 

Sign Jordan Zimmerman for what Santana made (and what Milone is projected to make maybe) for 4 years or so.  He has top of the rotation material, so that hole might be filled, and you got 8 pitchers for 2 spots to fight it out at ST.   Yes, I am including Nolasco, who actually has some pretty good stuff (best CB in the staff, for one,) had a decent FIP (3.51) and an outrageous BABIP (.392) and see what he can do.   Ideally everything will work out and the Twins will come out of ST with a rotation of:

 

Zimmerman, Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, Nolasco, with Duffey in AAA (along with Rogers, Dean, Wheeler).  This would mean that the guys with the highest ceilings pitched lights out and made it, which is a good thing...

 

There are options, but the Twins have to be brave and take a bit of a risk out there.

 

 

 

[bluechipper]

I think the Twins should just roll with what they have next year. A bounce-back from Hughes and a full year of Santana and a lot of Berrios should improve on this year's decent numbers.

 

I also really liked watching Tyler Duffey pitch, I'm just worried that "the book is out on him" and his only above average pitch will simply be more takes instead of swings and misses. Hopefully that's not the case though.

[Hrbowski]

Option #2.

[spinowner]

I'd really like to see a lefty in the rotation. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I'll bet very few teams have qualified for the postseason with an all-right-handed rotation.

[beckmt]

I still believe you need an ace for the post season(or a lights out bullpen).  Twins do not have the talent to pull together the lights out pen this year, so I would be looking at an ace pitcher(and possibly getting rid out Nolasco and Plouffe to free up salary.  Resigning Hunter might be tricky, but if not you save more money.

Still need a couple of more bullpen pieces(one less if you leave May there, but that would be a waste of talent)

[RealTwinsFan357]

I think the Twins should target Matt Harvey. He's a true ace. Start the package with Dozier, add a couple top prospects (Stewart, Kepler), and see what happens

[Kwak]

I can't envision the Twins spending for another SP when the pipeline is full--and more on the way.  It is fantasy to think that Nolasco is going away (nobody will pay that salary for the Twins), plus it hasn't been proved that he can't pitch.  2014 was an aberation because the Twins asked him to change his style (2-seam FB and cut-FB replacing a 4-seam FB and a curve).  Replacements for veterans (SPs) will come from within.  There will be 5 starters and a "spot" guy/ long-reliever.  Ryan have previously stated he "likes options".  Berrios will begin in the minors and stay there for awhile, but Duffey stays!  The pen will have some new names as well as some we saw last year.  The "shutdown bullpen" will be built from the (hoped-for) "power arms".  

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Sign Jordan Zimmerman for what Santana made (and what Milone is projected to make maybe) for 4 years or so.  He has top of the rotation material, so that hole might be filled, and you got 8 pitchers for 2 spots to fight it out at ST.   Yes, I am including Nolasco, who actually has some pretty good stuff (best CB in the staff, for one,) had a decent FIP (3.51) and an outrageous BABIP (.392) and see what he can do.   Ideally everything will work out and the Twins will come out of ST with a rotation of:

I like J. Zim--I actually was at Nats Park for his no-hitter in 2014. J Zim is NOT top of the rotation material. I don't think his ceiling is as high as Hughes or Berrios or May. J Zim is good middle of rotation pitcher like Gibson that's all. I would sign him as replacement for declining Nolasco or Santana.

 

There are four young pitchers who could help Twins potentially. Give them the ball in ST--Berrios, Duffey, May and Meyer. Let them pitch their way into the rotation behind Hughes. Fill in with Gibson, and if needed Santana, Nolasco and free agent but hope 2 or 3 of 4 kids take the ball and run with it.

[ashbury]

1) Move Duffey for minor league talent 

2) ????

3) Start next season with a rotation of:

Shields

Hughes

Santana

May (this guy needs to get another chance to start.  he's too talented to sit in the pen)

Duffey

I missed a step here. Obviously, though, what comes next is

 

4) Profit!

 

_{^{/ I know, I know, you mean to trade Gibson, right?}}

[Boom Boom]

I could throw out fantasy scenarios, but long-time Twins fans know that the plan to improve the rotation is to pray that Hughes is better, that Nolasco is almost adequate, and that Berrios can provide a boost once his service clock has been delayed.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think this can be fixed for 2016, just too many ugly contracts in the rotation. The goal should be to have no more than one pitcher over 30 on a multi-year deal come 2017. Don't worry about recouping list salary in the form of players, just move at minimum two of Nolasco, Hughes or Santana whenever they flash enough to tempt a team to take a chance on them, regardless of compensation.

[Danchat]

I stay the course unless there's a make-able trade that includes us getting an ace for Plouffe + Prospects.

 

Use that cap room to get a reliever or two and a catcher, whether by FA or by trade.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Who I personally think/guess the Twins best 5 in-house starters are:

 

#1) Berrios #2) Santana #3) Duffey #4) Gibson #5) May 

 

However, that really doesn't matter at all. So, how I think the rotation begins with a veteran :

 

#1) Santana #2) Gibson #3) Hughes #4) Nolasco #5) Milone

 

Notes:

-Santana pitched like an Ace after the coaches fixed some of his mechanics. He is getting older, but should be rested up for at lest the first half or so. I think he should be good, but pitchers are pitchers, and impossible to know what they will end up as.

 

-Hughes might be done. Seriously, the lost velocity is very concerning. Sure, you don't NEED velocity, but the data strongly shows that "individually" a pitchers stats get worse with the decline of his velocity. It rarely climbs back up. It might happen, but I am just going with my gut that Hughes might be done as an effective pitcher. Hope I am wrong, but expecting a bounce back seems a little less realistic than expecting something more close to what we saw from him this year. I wouldn't be surprised if we finally had to cut bait with him in the rotation by the end of next year, but they will keep putting him out there no matter what unless he gets hurt. If you have a big dollar contract and are healthy, you will be starting on this team, and most teams.

 

-Nolasco is likely not going to give us anything but frustration, and he will not be traded. He has/had the stuff to succeed, but seems to be one of those guys who always underperforms his peripherals often enough to suggest that there is something amiss with him, whether it be predictably and sequencing, tipping pitches, or just missing spots. I don't know, but I am not counting on him to be anything, and he was the buy low free agent that I was by far the most excited about. I thought it signaled the Twins were becoming more stats inclined. Maybe he turns it around, but there is enough failure there to suggest he should have an extremely short rope, but it will be long.

 

-Milone is the type of pitcher who can have a great game if all the elements are in his favor, but if they are not, he is a batting practice pitcher. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the rotation all of next year due to some good games and stretches, and the desire for one left-hander, but think he flops to a 4-5 era range. No upside at all, just the hope that he gets lucky for a long stretch of time.

 

-Gibson likely is what he is. He could have longer stretch of his first half success or he could have a longer stretch of his second half failures. So anything from 3.50-4.75 era is what we are looking at. I would say that is the most realistic range, but could somehow reach 3.25 if everything fell right. 

 

-The young guys I THINK give us some good upside and "stuff" and increased k%. The defense won't be as big of an issue. May probably never gets the chance to start, Berrios won't be up until May I would bet, and Duffey SHOULD start the year in the rotation, but for some excuse won't. Meyer never sees the MLB as a starter I don't think, especially with the contracts and performing young guys in front of him.

 

 

 

[freshinthehouse]

 

I missed a step here. Obviously, though, what comes next is

 

4) Profit!

 

_{^{/ I know, I know, you mean to trade Gibson, right?}}

 

Haha whoops that was supposed to read trade Milone, not Duffey.  And unless I missed something, do we not have the option to edit our posts?  

[ashbury]

Haha whoops that was supposed to read trade Milone, not Duffey.  And unless I missed something, do we not have the option to edit our posts?  

I believe editing is possible for the first hour after posting.

[Platoon]

The Twins 30 yr old + SP reminds me of buying something on CL that you thought would work perfectly for a task at hand. So you paid the asking price. You get it home and find out it worked, but not as well as you thought it would. When you try to get rid of it, you find that you cannot recoup your cost. And you either sell it for a loss, or are stuck with a "tool" that does work, but not at the level needed to get the project finished. Sooner or later a shop with too many underperforming "tools" has to get cleaned out.

[ashbury]

The Twins 30 yr old + SP reminds me of buying something on CL that you thought would work perfectly for a task at hand. So you paid the asking price. You get it home and find out it worked, but not as well as you thought it would. When you try to get rid of it, you find that you cannot recoup your cost. And you either sell it for a loss, or are stuck with a "tool" that does work, but not at the level needed to get the project finished. Sooner or later a shop with too many underperforming "tools" has to get cleaned out.

Especially because this particular toolshed has room for exactly 25 tools, about 12-13 of which can be devoted directly to this part of the overall project.

 

Of course everybody else has 25-tool toolsheds as well, somewhat accounting for the low/nonexistent bid price on eBay for your unwanted extras.

 

_{^{/ what would be cool are some 25-tool players, instead of just the traditional 5-tool. Imagine their potential. Hit, hit for power, do the dizzy bat race, sell hot dogs, negotiate trades...}}

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Option #3: Move Nolasco, Plouffe, and maybe a Gibson for a Grade A catcher who can improve the rotation/defense by calling a good game, framing pitches, and shutting down the opponent's running game. That's the best way to improve the rotation while maintaining in-house options.

 

I also like what Duffey's curveball brings to the rotation's variety. Having him start every fifth day brings a different look that will make opposing batters adjust day-to-day.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Here is the Twins' problem:  Their rotation (and starting pitcher player acquisition strategy - 5/8 of those names are not home grown) has emphasized quality over quantity.   In this list (other than Berrios who is untested) there is nobody who would be even a number 2 in any of the teams that made the 2015 post-season.  If you have a rotation with a bunch of number 3s and 4s and 5s and AAAA guys, you will not win and if you do, you will not go far in the post-season.

 

I'd add another name to the equation, the one who has the highest potential of them all in the Twins' organization, but it forgotten for some reason:  Alex Meyer.  He is on the 40-man roster, he should be handed the ball in the Spring and I hope that he has something to prove.  So you got 9.

 

You got to get rid of quality and focus on quantity.  May and Hughes have proven that they can be very good (May) to lights out (Hughes as a Yankee) relievers.  Add Jepsen and Perkins and you got 4 good plus relievers (depending how Perkins health is.)  So you are solving another problem (but still need 3 more arms, at least one of them should be a lefty.) Two of the 9 down. 

 

Still too many.  Got to trade 2.  And got to sell as high as you can and go with ceiling.  That would be Santana and Milone.  Trade for salary relief.  This leaves you with 5, but without an ace. 

 

Sign Jordan Zimmerman for what Santana made (and what Milone is projected to make maybe) for 4 years or so.  He has top of the rotation material, so that hole might be filled, and you got 8 pitchers for 2 spots to fight it out at ST.   Yes, I am including Nolasco, who actually has some pretty good stuff (best CB in the staff, for one,) had a decent FIP (3.51) and an outrageous BABIP (.392) and see what he can do.   Ideally everything will work out and the Twins will come out of ST with a rotation of:

 

Zimmerman, Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, Nolasco, with Duffey in AAA (along with Rogers, Dean, Wheeler).  This would mean that the guys with the highest ceilings pitched lights out and made it, which is a good thing...

 

There are options, but the Twins have to be brave and take a bit of a risk out there.

I think you have quality and quantity switched around . . .

 

Also, in what universe do Nolasco and Gibson have higher ceilings than Hughes, Santana, Duffey, and May? I realize that Nolasco had some good FIPs in the past, but his ERA has constantly been higher, and tellingly, so has his SIERA, both of which are likely due to his high fly ball tendencies. Also, Hughes, Duffey, Santana and May have also all had good FIPs in recent years.

[stringer bell]

While I understand everyone's desire for the team to rid itself of Nolasco's contract, it just isn't going to happen. He will get a more than fair chance to make the rotation and won't be traded or released.

[Mike Sixel]

While I understand everyone's desire for the team to rid itself of Nolasco's contract, it just isn't going to happen. He will get a more than fair chance to make the rotation and won't be traded or released.

I concur.

[nicksaviking]

 

While I understand everyone's desire for the team to rid itself of Nolasco's contract, it just isn't going to happen. He will get a more than fair chance to make the rotation and won't be traded or released.

 

Nolasco in the 2015-16 offseason has a pretty recent comp in Mike Pelfrey in the 2014-15 offseason.  Maybe the team will get lucky and get similar results next year.

 

Not that everyone isn't completely justified in wishing neither were/are a rotation option.

[laloesch]

 

While I understand everyone's desire for the team to rid itself of Nolasco's contract, it just isn't going to happen. He will get a more than fair chance to make the rotation and won't be traded or released.

 

Really? Do you have a crystal ball? 

[adorduan]

 

I think you have quality and quantity switched around . . .

 

Also, in what universe do Nolasco and Gibson have higher ceilings than Hughes, Santana, Duffey, and May? I realize that Nolasco had some good FIPs in the past, but his ERA has constantly been higher, and tellingly, so has his SIERA, both of which are likely due to his high fly ball tendencies. Also, Hughes, Duffey, Santana and May have also all had good FIPs in recent years.

I think Gibson has a higher ceiling than Hughes has at this point. Unless Hughes regains the velocity he lost this year, throwing a 90-91 mph cutter 80% of the time is not going to be very successful IMO.  I found it a little irritating that despite Neal Allen wanting him to throw more change ups, he seemed to abandon that pretty quickly.  If he's only capable of throwing 90-91, a changeup could be one the thing that prolongs his career.