2016 Twins Rotation: Should, Could and How to Improve

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think Gibson has a higher ceiling than Hughes has at this point. Unless Hughes regains the velocity he lost this year, throwing a 90-91 mph cutter 80% of the time is not going to be very successful IMO.  I found it a little irritating that despite Neal Allen wanting him to throw more change ups, he seemed to abandon that pretty quickly.  If he's only capable of throwing 90-91, a changeup could be one the thing that prolongs his career.

 

Maybe we have different definitions of the word "ceiling," but generally I think of a "ceiling" including anything that might reasonably happen. I think it is at least reasonably possible (i.e., at least greater than 10%) that Hughes will regain his velocity.  Are you really going to argue that the guy that had a 5.8 WAR season with a 2.58 FIP has a lower ceiling than the guy whose highest WAR was 2.5 and lowest FIP was 3.80? Sure, Hughes has more seasons in the league, so maybe Gibson will have a high upside season coming, but I dunno, seems pretty clear cut to me.

[adorduan]

 

Maybe we have different definitions of the word "ceiling," but generally I think of a "ceiling" including anything that might reasonably happen. I think it is at least reasonably possible (i.e., at least greater than 10%) that Hughes will regain his velocity.  Are you really going to argue that the guy that had a 5.8 WAR season with a 2.58 FIP has a lower ceiling than the guy whose highest WAR was 2.5 and lowest FIP was 3.80? Sure, Hughes has more seasons in the league, so maybe Gibson will have a high upside season coming, but I dunno, seems pretty clear cut to me.

We will have to agree to disagree I guess.  I think Hughes' 2014 season was the exception, not the rule.  Pretty much all his other seasons have been nothing special, if you ask me.

[nytwinsfan]

 

We will have to agree to disagree I guess.  I think Hughes' 2014 season was the exception, not the rule.  Pretty much all his other seasons have been nothing special, if you ask me.

Yeah, but I think the the word "ceiling", by definition includes the exceptional year. I don't think Gibson's exceptional year would ever look anything like that. Maybe 3.5 WAR and a 3.30 FIP, at most. But sure, agree to disagree.

[Willihammer]

Agree. I think we can pencil in Hughes for 30 starts, 175 IP at about 100 ERA+. Similar for Gibson (maybe a more starts/IP as he stays in better shape). Santana is probably good for 30/200/100. That's three #4 type starters.

 

Berrios could be a stud but should probably stay off the 40 man until May / super 2 deadline / injury opens a spot for him.

 

Duffey looks good but realistically looks like a poor man's Jake Peavy (another #4).

 

Nolasco's body can't stand up to a starting job anymore. He seems like an obvious RH breaking ball specialist successor to Fien IMO.

 

May probably deserves another chance but the team should not be burning starts on long shots anymore IMO. We know he is a strong bullpen choice. The bullpen is weak. Leaving him there would be a fine use for him right now.

 

That leaves one rotation opening for a front of the rotation arm. Perhaps the Twins can send a package of prospects for a Salazar / Carrasco / Strasburg type. That would leave them with strong SP pitching depth and plenty of payroll to add another BP arm/catcher.

[Boom Boom]

While I understand everyone's desire for the team to rid itself of Nolasco's contract, it just isn't going to happen. He will get a more than fair chance to make the rotation and won't be traded or released.

It is possible the Twins could trade Nolasco, but only if the return was a player on a comparably bad contract.

 

I will agree with you though that he will be given every opportunity if he's still on the team to begin the 2016 season. If he's healthy enough, he'll be given a rotation spot.

[DocBauer]

 

While I understand everyone's desire for the team to rid itself of Nolasco's contract, it just isn't going to happen. He will get a more than fair chance to make the rotation and won't be traded or released.

I hope you're wrong on this. And that's not a knock on Nolasco. I liked the signing when it happened, and I won't/can't/don't hate on the guy for bad injury luck. But, since his signing, May has really started to come on strong. Duffey has continued to climb the ladder and had a great season, minors and majors last season. Also, the team has now invested in Santana and the solid but unspectacular Milone has gotten healthy and been exactly that...solid but unspectacular. 

 

IMO, there just isn't room for Nolasco any longer, and a fresh start is needed. Again, IMO, he has value, and I feel that picking up half his remaining 2 years and a low B or high C prospect should hopefully get him moved. Now, do the Twins get back a solid RP in this deal or maybe a high B prospect I can't say.

 

But he becomes a veteran depth starter for another team for half price for 2 years. We get the 40 man room, save another $6M, and un-crowd the rotation which still has a couple guys having to probably head to the bullpen.

[ashbury]

Really? Do you have a crystal ball? 

When in doubt, insert "IMO" anyplace you see a statement you think is a little too strong. Makes the site much more readable, for me at least.