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Article: Joe Mauer's Future

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#21 AZTwin

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 04:03 PM

Give him 3 more years. Barring injury he will pass Kirby Puckett as most hits with Twins. He is reviving his career and theoretically could play 5-6 more years without the grind of being a catcher. Amazing to see after the concussion hurt him so much
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#22 Thrylos

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 04:06 PM

 

Ghosts of heroes past?

He just nearly (should have) won a Gold Glove at a second position, and he's been hitting over .300 for with a great OBP for about a year now.

 

Facts: In 2017, among 28 qualified first basemen, Mauer ranked: 

16th in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, 20th in OPS,and 5th in batting average :)

 

In other words, in metrics that reflect overall performance, he was in the lowest third in the league.

Yes.Having a first baseman who is in the bottom third of the third basement, hurts a team that wants to compete in the post-season.

 

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#23 Thrylos

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 04:07 PM

 

 

Didn't realize you spoke for all fans.

 

You'd rather see the Twins re-sign Mauer than win a World Series? If so, you are Mauer fan and not a Twins' fan.

Edited by Thrylos, 13 April 2018 - 04:07 PM.

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#24 highlander

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 04:35 PM

Sorry Old Goat but you unfixed that. 3 years on top of this year Joe will be well past 2,500 hits. In the neighborhood of 2,600 to 2,700 base knocks. That puts him close to 3,000.

#25 ewen21

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 04:38 PM

 

Some talk about Joe's HOF chances on another thread. Thought I'd add some food for thought:

 

Johnny Bench had 2,048 hits

Mike Piazza had 2,127 hits

Carlton Fisk had 2,356 hits

Yogi Berra had 2,150 hits

 

Joe? He's already at 2,000 and will likely surpass all these guys. Yeah yeah, he's been at first base for a few of those games. I don't think that hurts him as much as some of you think.

 

Hits AS A CATCHER with (home runs and RBI at that position):

 

Bench:1,464 (327, 1,184)

Piazza: 1,906 (396, 1,205)

Fisk: 2,145 (351, 1,197)

Berra: 1,756 (291, 1,256)

 

How about this guy?
Simmons: 1,908 (195, 1,062)

 

AS A CATCHER

Mauer: 1,118 (91, 514)

 

 

 

If we are going to compare Mauer to other catchers then it necessitates a comparison to those other catchers based on what they did at the catcher's position.It's only right if we are going to compare him to those players.The writer's with voting credentials will most certainly discuss and review those numbers.It will matter

Edited by ewen21, 13 April 2018 - 04:43 PM.


#26 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 04:43 PM

Sorry Old Goat but you unfixed that. 3 years on top of this year Joe will be well past 2,500 hits. In the neighborhood of 2,600 to 2,700 base knocks. That puts him close to 3,000.


Close is a relative term.
If he's still a starter, sure 2600 is fairly close- though that would still require 3 more seasons, which would put him at 40.

If he's a part time player, which isn't far fetched, considering the offensive standards of first base, combined with his age by then, then it's not really close.
He'd need another 6 or 7 years to get those last 400 hits.

It's really a long shot at this point.
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#27 70charger

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 05:33 PM

 
If we are going to compare Mauer to other catchers then it necessitates a comparison to those other catchers based on what they did at the catcher's position


That would be good for Mauer, so you’re really reaching for something to complain about here.

Because, aside from longevity, which everyone knows is only lacking because of a traumatic brain injury, Joe’s catcher résumé is right up there with the greats. And you know that the only reason Mauer isn’t going to end up right up there with Berra or Piazza in the hit count is that they didn’t have a major brain injury take away some of their peak years.

I think Mauer would very much prefer to be compared to catchers than first basemen. And why not? He was an every day catcher for a decade.
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#28 ashburyjohn

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:01 PM

And you know that the only reason Mauer isn’t going to end up right up there with Berra or Piazza in the hit count is that they didn’t have a major brain injury take away some of their peak years.

I'm unconvinced. It's said that x-rays of Berra's head revealed nothing. :)

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#29 ewen21

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:04 PM

 

That would be good for Mauer, so you’re really reaching for something to complain about here.
 

 

I compared the numbers from what these players did at the catcher position. Those are just facts and those numbers will be reviewed in the process.Not reaching or complaining, nor am I interested in any back and forth.

 

I will simply say this and move forward,....

Why are we pushing Joe out there for three more years given he suffered post-traumatic effects from a brain injury for three seasons?Someone that has suffered a traumatic brain injury needn't be playing professional sports into their late 30s.The guy has a family to think of and he has all the money he could ever need.

 

If we are talking about his future does this not involve his future beyond baseball?Or do we need to push him out there for a few more seasons just so he can hit numbers?  


#30 Thrylos

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:07 PM

 

I'm unconvinced. It's said that x-rays of Berra's head revealed nothing. :)

 

Even Napoleon had his Watergate

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#31 beckmt

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:07 PM

Let's not forget he also has 3 batting titles as a catcher.Those are 2 more than any other catcher and they count.He still has a very high OBP, so what he is lacking is the HR's.

FYI Pizza was not a good catcher.

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#32 Nine of twelve

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:15 PM

Let's take it a bit further and look at the huge Mauer contract:
 
2017: Mauer has 2.3 WAR. WAR is worth $10.5 mill. Mauer is worth $24.15 mill
2016: Mauer has 0.9 WAR. WAR is worth $10.2 mill. Mauer is worth $9.18 mill
2015: Mauer has 0.2 WAR. WAR is worth $9.6 mill. Mauer is worth $1.92 mill
2014: Mauer has 1.6 WAR. WAR is worth $7.7 mill. Mauer is worth $12.32 mill
2013: Mauer has 5.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.2 mill. Mauer is worth $37.44 mill
2012: Mauer has 4.5 WAR. WAR is worth $6.2 mill. Mauer is worth $27.9 mill
2011: Mauer has 1.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.4 mill. Mauer is worth $8.88 mill.
 
Thus far Mauer has been worth $121.79 million in all but the final year of a $184 million contract. 
 
He needs a pretty big throwback season to make the whole contract worth it. If WAR is worth $10.5 million this year he'd need a 6.0 WAR season. So far he has 0.6 WAR and is on pace for 8.8 WAR. Let's rewrite this narrative and make that contract worth it!

None of this has any bearing on his perceived future value. That's what what will drive contract negotiations wherever he lands.

#33 DocBauer

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:43 PM

Mauer has never been a power hitter, with the exception of his one season, as either a catcher or 1B. And he's not going to become one now. To be fair, he's been a pretty decent doubles hitter for most of his career. 1B is regarded as being a power position. But it doesn't have to be. If you have power in the OF, power at 3B, power at DH, (potentially now with Morrison), and power at 2B, (for NOW anyway), and even some power from other's in your lineup and bench, who says Mauer HAS to be replaced because he doesn't have HR power? He provides AVG, OB, contact, 2 strike ability, and stands in well against LHP. He also plays outstanding defense at 1B.

SOMETHING has clearly changed in Mauer and it would clearly seem to be further healing and removal from his concussion issues. He's also been healthier since the move to 1B. Unless his 2017 season and start to this season are illusions, he should be brought back.

At this point, nothing wrong going 1 year at a time. But I'd bet 2 years for around $10M per. And I'd think that would be very fair to all parties.

As a side note, and not an attempt to change the thread, but Mauer at $10M and Dozier re-signed for $18M per would still be less than they are making combined this season, (approximately $33M I believe).
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#34 Rosterman

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 06:58 PM

It all depends on:

 

(1) Salary. Would he sign continuous 1-year contracts for $8-10, or will it be $10-13 (or more).

 

(2) Who's on first. Rooker and Diaz are at least a year out for regular play. Morrison could be a choice. Sano breaks down and needs to play 1B or DH. If anything see Sano as cementing the DH spot for a longtime to come if the Twins can find a salary haven they both like.

 

(3) Is there a true job for him with the Twins on the field. Mauer is not going to be a bench player. No doubt, he could find one year deals for a substantial amount of $$$ most anywhere, as long as he wants to play, and don't see him playing for a mil (shades of Ichiro) when Joe turns 40.

 

 

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#35 bean5302

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 07:20 PM

Mauer made a clear and obvious adjustment last year. Surrounded by better hitters, Mauer's getting better pitches to hit and he doesn't appear to be pressing as hard as he was.

 

Mauer is swinging at far fewer pitches outside the zone, he's making much better contact, and he's seeing higher hard-hit rates. His K rate continued its 3rd consecutive annual decline, his line drive rate rebounded and he didn't lose any significant speed from the previous season.

 

I think Mauer could have another, better, season this year if he continues to punish teams for shifting against him and his HR/FB rate gets back to where it was for 4 of the previous 5 seasons. I don't think an OPS in the mid-800s and a 3.5-4.0 WAR is out of the question.

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#36 70charger

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 09:17 PM

 

I will simply say this and move forward,....

Why are we pushing Joe out there for three more years given he suffered post-traumatic effects from a brain injury for three seasons?Someone that has suffered a traumatic brain injury needn't be playing professional sports into their late 30s. The guy has a family to think of and he has all the money he could ever need.

 

First of all, neither I nor anyone else is "pushing him out there." He wants to be there, and he's a good player. And not only does Joe not have to play pro sports, he doesn't have to do a goddamn thing the rest of his life.

 

And literally none of that is the point, nor is any of it a good argument.

 

Does he want to continue playing? Apparently yes. Has he healed up well? Apparently yes. Can he continue to help the team? Apparently yes. He sure did last year, and so far this year it's looking very good. Attempting to hide behind a fake concern for his family is just cynical.

 

So...I think we're done here.


#37 Kelly Vance

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 10:30 PM

 

There are many Carew jerseys. I recommend against signing Rod.

deliberately miss the point much?  Fans revere Carew, Killebrew, Oliva, Kirby. But Joe is bringing in revenue way beyond those guys combined. 

 


#38 Kelly Vance

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Posted 13 April 2018 - 10:45 PM

 

Hits AS A CATCHER with (home runs and RBI at that position):

 

Bench:1,464 (327, 1,184)

Piazza: 1,906 (396, 1,205)

Fisk: 2,145 (351, 1,197)

Berra: 1,756 (291, 1,256)

 

How about this guy?
Simmons: 1,908 (195, 1,062)

 

AS A CATCHER

Mauer: 1,118 (91, 514)

 

 

 

If we are going to compare Mauer to other catchers then it necessitates a comparison to those other catchers based on what they did at the catcher's position.It's only right if we are going to compare him to those players.The writer's with voting credentials will most certainly discuss and review those numbers.It will matter

forgetting, of course, that Mauer is more versatile than allofthoseguys

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#39 TFRazor

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 05:52 AM

 

Some talk about Joe's HOF chances on another thread. Thought I'd add some food for thought:

 

Johnny Bench had 2,048 hits

Mike Piazza had 2,127 hits

Carlton Fisk had 2,356 hits

Yogi Berra had 2,150 hits

 

Joe? He's already at 2,000 and will likely surpass all these guys. Yeah yeah, he's been at first base for a few of those games. I don't think that hurts him as much as some of you think.

Especially if he ends up getting a gold glove at 1st. That should quiet the "but he changed positions" crowd.

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#40 TFRazor

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 06:31 AM

 

Facts: In 2017, among 28 qualified first basemen, Mauer ranked: 

16th in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, 20th in OPS,and 5th in batting average :)

 

In other words, in metrics that reflect overall performance, he was in the lowest third in the league.

Yes.Having a first baseman who is in the bottom third of the third basement, hurts a team that wants to compete in the post-season.

 

Tell this to the Astros. They just won a World Series where the only thing their first baseman was effective at was using a racial slur

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