Article: Early 2017 Draft Prospects

[Jeremy Nygaard]

For the first time since adding Joe Mauer in 2001, the Twins are going to be first on the clock when the 2017 draft kicks off. It’s exciting. The opportunity to add the best amateur player to an already strong, young system is an encouraging step for an organization with a new leader.

 

But before we examine the top five candidates to hear their name called at the top of the draft, we should look at some of the uncertainties that need to be cleared up before the draft happens in eight months.Ch-ch-ch-changes

 

Terry Ryan was in the draft room, but wasn’t making the calls. Deron Johnson had the final say and many others had their voices heard. Ryan is out, obviously, and Derek Falvey has been named Chief Baseball Officer. Johnson is still in (for now), as is the entire scouting staff. But what role will Falvey play? How involved will his GM be? How many of the scouting department will he retain? How many will take jobs elsewhere?

 

My guess is that Falvey will be more involved than Ryan, but that a majority of the scouting department remains unchanged. I don’t know what the future holds for Johnson, but I think there’s a chance his role changes. Many scouts stayed in the organization for as long as they have because of Terry Ryan. We could certainly see more changes than we’ve seen in the last few years. (Which isn’t saying much, because there have been hardly any changes in the last five years.)

 

New Rules

 

When poking around for information, one thing that continued to come up was the expiring Collective Bargaining Agreement. Having the #1 pick - and the draft bonus tied to it - has been an absolute benefit, one that many teams feel is unfair. Many expect the current rules to change and the benefit to… well, become less of a benefit.

 

If the CBA rules doesn’t change, one A.L. scout told me the first pick would be “the guy who takes the best deal” before warning me to see how the new agreement shakes out.

 

The Candidates

 

It’s early. Really early. It’s likely not all four of these guys will be first-rounders, let alone the top four picks of the draft. It’s also extremely likely someone not on the top-four radar will be a top four pick. But as of today, here are the four I’ve been hearing tied to the first pick of the draft.

 

Hunter Greene, California HS RHP. No right-handed prep pitcher has ever gone first overall, so despite the fact that Greene is the best prospect, there’s no guarantee that he’s going first overall. But he’s good enough to break that trend. Up to 98 on the mound, profiling as a potential ace, Greene also has legitimate two-way tools as a shortstop. How many prospects come around like this? Not many. But before you get too far ahead of yourself... no, he’s not Bryce Harper. But he is a pretty special prospect.

 

Jeren Kendall, Vanderbilt CF. Kendall wasn’t a huge name coming from a Wisconsin HS, but Vanderbilt doesn’t just take anybody… and now Kendall’s a future star in a five-tool package. After helping Vanderbilt to the College World Series as a freshman, batting .332 with a .964 OPS as a sophomore and being the biggest run-producer on the collegiate national team this summer, Kendall has surfaced as the best draft-eligible college position player in the nation.

 

Alex Faedo, Florida RHP. Faedo was named Baseball America’s top prospect from the collegiate national team. Faedo is a big guy (6’ 5”, 220) with top-of-the-rotation stuff. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on both knees, but is expected to fully recover by the spring. Faedo features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a mid-80s slider and a change-up.

 

Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt RHP. Wright was arguably the best pitcher in the SEC last year in a stacked conference. He showed well over the summer, featuring a high-80s heavy fastball and a plus curveball. He’s developing a change-up. Another A.L. scout told me that if he was making the call, he’d take Wright first overall right now.

 

Other names to watch: J.B. Bukauskas, UNC RHP; Jo Adell, Kentucky HS P/OF; Trevor Rogers, New Mexico HS, LHP.

 

Who do you take?

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I take Wright. The only reason I take Greene is if Falvey truly believes Greene can be molded into an ace. I don't care if we have to wait longer, but if Wright is a true 1/2, and Greene is a true 1 with a bullet, I could see going for the higher potential. But yeah, as of now I'd take Wright.

Thanks for doing this! I appreciate it.

[d-mac]

What happened to that college catcher that was supposed to have all that hype?

[markos]

Does anyone know how Greene stacks up against other top HS pitchers of the past few years? Guys like Giolito, Bundy, and Taillon.

 

 

[bluechipper]

Great, one of the top 4 guys in the draft features a high 80's sinker. I think I'll pass.

[T_J]

I'm going to be shouting Hunter Greene all the way to draft day. He has potential to be more than a staff ace, he is the only play, at this very early point, to be a yearly Cy Young candidate.

 

2018, Seth Beer. Just need to suck next season too, shouldn't be too hard.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'm going to be shouting Hunter Greene all the way to draft day. He has potential to be more than a staff ace, he is the only play, at this very early point, to be a yearly Cy Young candidate.

2018, Seth Beer. Just need to suck next season too, shouldn't be too hard.

 

I'm with ya on this one. There may not appear to be a clear-cut, surefire No. 1 pick at this moment, but I think by the time draft day rolls around Greene will have established himself as the guy. Dude just turned 17 and Perfect Game has him listed at 6-4, 205 lbs. He's already throwing 98 mph. Exactly the kind of guy you dream about at 1-1.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What happened to that college catcher that was supposed to have all that hype?

 

He still does, but he wasn't quite as good last year....but I'd say he goes top 10, or top 5, if he's good next year. Legit.

[Mike Sixel]

If it all stays as is (hahahahahaha), I take Greene, I think. But, more reading is needed.

[SarasotaBill]

Another A.L. scout told me that if he was making the call, he’d take Wright first overall right now.

 

Does the scout's team have the 2nd pick?

[nater79a]

Wow, wonder if there has ever been two collegiate teammates go #1 & #2 before? I guess the Vandy combo of Wright/Kendall could do that this year. Non-zero chance, at least.

[Cory Engelhardt]

High 80's seems low for how hard I've read Wright throws. I don't have a good link in front of me, but he throws a fastball in the low to mid 90's, a heavy high 80's sinker, and a curve/slider in the low 80's. Keith Law has put him as his favorite for #1 (along with Faedo) and says the two of them project as top or the rotation arms.

That said, I don't know if Law has seen Greene pitch yet. And we are still 9 months out, so a LOT could change.

[Winston Smith]

I'd tend to go with the best position player. Pitchers are just so hard to judge, seems like a much higher fail rate and always the chance of injury finishing his career early.

 

And I know we really need pitching.

[bird]

 

High 80's seems low for how hard I've read Wright throws. I don't have a good link in front of me, but he throws a fastball in the low to mid 90's, a heavy high 80's sinker, and a curve/slider in the low 80's. Keith Law has put him as his favorite for #1 (along with Faedo) and says the two of them project as top or the rotation arms.

That said, I don't know if Law has seen Greene pitch yet. And we are still 9 months out, so a LOT could change.

 

 

Yeah, I think I read the transcript of that chat, and as I recall, Law labeled both Wright and Faedo as guys that project to be #2 starters. I'm cringing at the thought that maybe no one emerges as a consensus staff ace. If that were the case, I can clearly see logic in taking the best position player if he projects to be a Benintendo type or something along those more predictable lines. It's gonna be interesting.

[goulik]

The college pitchers do not excite me as 1-1 fast track pitchers like past years. I want an ace

[Mr. Brooks]

If Greene is the only guy with true ace potential, then I think you take him no matter how risky it is.

I'd rather shoot for an ace and fail, then end up with Kyle Gibson at 1-1.

[Jordan1212]

Well I like the kid so far throws 98 and looking at clips is nasty. I also disagree with you about deron Johnson staying let alone half the scouting department falvey is gonna blow this up because that's what smart bosses do you put aces in there places and I guarantee he has some aces in his hand ready to come with him sounds to me as he is bringing his Cleveland buddy along as the gm so if you think Rob Antony or deron Johnson are staying i don't think so I could see Mike Radcliff staying but that's about it

[old nurse]

Can't take Faedo. There is a Lenny flashback

[TheLeviathan]

Put me in the Kendall camp early on.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Can't take Faedo. There is a Lenny flashback

Cool -- I wasn't the only who thought of Lenny. Are they related? Can't be that many Faedos (Faedoes?) (okay, guys named Faedo) out there.

 

[ScottyB]

 

Cool -- I wasn't the only who thought of Lenny. Are they related? Can't be that many Faedos (Faedoes?) (okay, guys named Faedo) out there.

 

Second cousins - see here

[diehardtwinsfan]

If anything, I expect Falvey to add positions to the scouting department early on.  I'm not expecting a whole lot of blowing it up that far down... at least right off the bat.  Some guys will eventually be let go, but that won't likely happen before June. 

 

As for this, yes, I think you have to get the ace.  But keep in mind that this was the same reason that we took Stewart a few years back, and that hasn't developed the way we'd have hoped.  There's risk there. Green may have the most upside, but he's going to need to spend more time in the minors than say those Vandy pitchers. I'm not against that, but what this tream really needs is for one of those Vandy pitchers (or another college pitcher) to take a big leap forward leaving us with a sure fire college ace.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

What happened to that college catcher that was supposed to have all that hype?

 

JJ Schwarz from Florida. I really like his bat, but he kinda fell off a bit in his sophomore year. He's definitely someone that could re-emerge with a strong season.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Does anyone know how Greene stacks up against other top HS pitchers of the past few years? Guys like Giolito, Bundy, and Taillon.

 

Give it more time to play out. He's much different than those guys. There are probably teams out there - in fact, I'm sure there are - that prefer Greene in the field. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'm going to be shouting Hunter Greene all the way to draft day. He has potential to be more than a staff ace, he is the only play, at this very early point, to be a yearly Cy Young candidate.

2018, Seth Beer. Just need to suck next season too, shouldn't be too hard.

 

Beer was the best player in America... but he struggled with USA Baseball. You're right though, he's the next big thing.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Another A.L. scout told me that if he was making the call, he’d take Wright first overall right now.

 

Does the scout's team have the 2nd pick?

 

No. I'm not going to tell you it was a Twins scout. I'm also not going to tell you it wasn't.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Wow, wonder if there has ever been two collegiate teammates go #1 & #2 before? I guess the Vandy combo of Wright/Kendall could do that this year. Non-zero chance, at least.

 

Cole and Bauer went 1 and 3 a few years back. I'm not sure if any school has ever gone 1 and 2.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

High 80's seems low for how hard I've read Wright throws. I don't have a good link in front of me, but he throws a fastball in the low to mid 90's, a heavy high 80's sinker, and a curve/slider in the low 80's. Keith Law has put him as his favorite for #1 (along with Faedo) and says the two of them project as top or the rotation arms.

That said, I don't know if Law has seen Greene pitch yet. And we are still 9 months out, so a LOT could change.

 

His most recent appearances (with USA baseball) were high 80s. He was low 90s during the season. Probably had to do with workload. He got hit pretty hard in the regionals. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Well I like the kid so far throws 98 and looking at clips is nasty. I also disagree with you about deron Johnson staying let alone half the scouting department falvey is gonna blow this up because that's what smart bosses do you put aces in there places and I guarantee he has some aces in his hand ready to come with him sounds to me as he is bringing his Cleveland buddy along as the gm so if you think Rob Antony or deron Johnson are staying i don't think so I could see Mike Radcliff staying but that's about it

 

I guess we'll see. But I'd also guess you're wrong.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yeah I can't see the Twins cleaning house completely. If anything wouldn't they just want to be adding/doubling the amount of staff they have, and then let chips fall where they may? New GM, new Scouting Director, new director of minor league development, double the amount of scouts (for example) and then let the people in the current roles stay on if they choose with different titles. Then, over the next 2-3 years, work it all out at that point?