Tracking Arcia

[PopRiveter]

I have loyally followed the Twins since the late eighties. My father would tell stories of Harmon Killebrew while I watched Ron Coomer lead my version of the Twins with 16 home runs at a time when league leaders were hitting mid-60's.

 

I anxiously awaited a true power hitter and in walked David Ortiz. I could see him hitting 40+ home runs. He was in a Twins uniform. I had a favorite player.

 

..and Terry Ryan gave him up so I could instead watch Matthew Lecroy hit 60 bombs. Except over the course of 8 seasons.

 

I was sickened at that decision though it seemed everyone else was just fine with it until David Ortiz proved to be the guy I was convinced he was.

 

Years pass. I keep watching. I don't see another 40 HR potential player put on a Twins uni until 2013 when Oswaldo Arcia arrives, albeit prematurely. He's incomplete and flawed but young, brash, powerful. He's built like Jose Canseco, but he's testing clean. It's going to take a few years for the payoff, but I have a new favorite player.

 

...and Terry Ryan gives him up for "future cash considerations" so I can watch Danny Santana? Robbie Grossman? Byung Ho Park?

 

At least this time I'm not alone in my disgust.

 

So here's the simple exercise. I'll track side by side by side by side these players' production from June 15, the day of the dfa.

 

I'm going to also include Miguel Sano. Firstly, because I think Sano and Arcia are both best suited to play DH eventually, and secondly, because I believe they are the two most comparable as hitters. I am personally higher on Arcia's upside and I believe everyone else is higher on Sano's.

 

FWIW, I just think Arcia's build looks more likely to stay muscular and healthy and Sano looks like he's going to have the joint problems of a Great Dane. Hope I'm wrong about Sano.

 

Every few weeks, I'll feel the sickness in my gut and take a fresh snapshot. Here's today's:

 

Arcia:
.438/.444/.750
18PA, 3XBH, 1HR, 4RBI

 

Grossman:
.163/.281/.245
57PA, 2XBH, 1HR, 2RBI

 

Santana:
.125/.158/.313
19PA, 2XBH, 1HR, 2RBI

 

Park:
.074/.129/.185
31PA, 1XBH, 1HR, 4RBI

 

Sano:
DNP

 

 

[CampQ]

One wonders why Arcia has only 18 PA. Looks like the Rays are using him effectively though

 

The DFA is why. Duh

[KirbyDome89]

Are we seriously trying to compare Arica to Sano? I wasn't a fan of the move, especially the way in which the Twins handled the whole situation but, in the words of Chris Carter...."C'mon man."

[jharaldson]

 

One wonders why Arcia has only 18 PA.

 

He was released on June 15 but not picked traded until June 25 so he missed 10 days.

[Thrylos]

This is interesting, but the comparison is apples and oranges.  Arcia was a power LHB, something that the Twins do not have in the majors.

 

And the reason he lost his job with the Twins was not Sano, Park or Santana, but it was Kepler and Grossman.   Might be interesting to track those two vs Arcia...  

 

Much more relevant

[Craig Arko]

Maybe this is better suited for 'Other baseball.'

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is interesting, but the comparison is apples and oranges.  Arcia was a power LHB, something that the Twins do not have in the majors.

 

And the reason he lost his job with the Twins was not Sano, Park or Santana, but it was Kepler and Grossman.   Might be interesting to track those two vs Arcia...  

 

Much more relevant

You should start a thread....

[PopRiveter]

 

Are we seriously trying to compare Arica to Sano? I wasn't a fan of the move, especially the way in which the Twins handled the whole situation but, in the words of Chris Carter...."C'mon man."

Yeah, I am.

 

You can think it's crazy, and I understand where you're coming from. The experts project Sano to be an elite power hitter, and we've seen some of that arrive. Arcia has never been touted as a sure-thing like Sano.

 

I openly acknowledge that my perception is not necessarily reasonable. I look at this as a fan who would love to see a Twin hit 40. With my untrained eye, I've seen 3 Twins hitters in 30 years of watching that have looked like potential 40 home run hitters. Ortiz, Arcia, Sano. 

 

I'm not a scout, but Ortiz turned into the great hitter I envisioned. I worry Sano will have a few great years and then break down. Arcia looks like the kind of guy that can become great and hold up.

 

I don't have strong feelings about Park. I can imagine him hitting 30. Maybe Rob Deer-esque? 

 

More importantly, Danny Santana and Robbie Grossman look to me like they come from the same bin as Jordan Schafer, Darin Mastroianni, Clete Thomas, Erik Komatsu, Sam Fuld, Wilkin Ramirez, Dustin Mohr, Lew Ford.

 

In short, 4th outfielder.

 

I can certainly be wrong.

 

We'll see how the numbers stack up in time. Let the fun begin!

[PopRiveter]

 

This is interesting, but the comparison is apples and oranges.  Arcia was a power LHB, something that the Twins do not have in the majors.

 

And the reason he lost his job with the Twins was not Sano, Park or Santana, but it was Kepler and Grossman.   Might be interesting to track those two vs Arcia...  

 

Much more relevant

Kepler:

.306/.375/.571

56PA, 9XBH, 2HR, 9RBI

 

I didn't include him simply because I see him as a dramatically different player, but he is part of the congestion that pushed Arcia out. I can see the reasoning in adding him to the watchlist.

 

Still, I think Arcia's natural role is more comparable to those currently filled by Park or Sano, not Kepler. The team could've just as easily dfa-ed Santana or not picked-up Grossman, so they belong on the watchlist.

[ashbury]

He was released on June 15 but not picked traded until June 25 so he missed 10 days.

He was not released. Being "Designated For Assignment" gives his team 10 days to decide what to do with him. Which... they eventually did, when they announced they had traded him.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm as big as an Arcia Bobo as there is on here, but you lost me when you said you think Arcia has more upside than Sano.

After reading your reasons why, I don't think upside is the correct term.

You worry that Sano could break down physically, which is a legit concern, but not one which affects his upside projection.

Upside is a players ceiling should everything break right for that player. Injury and durability can affect a players overall expected return, but it shouldn't affect their potential upside.

[scottz]

I'm glad you're doing this. My fingers are exhausted from typing box scores regularly. 3 cheers for box scores!

[Minniman]

 

 

I anxiously awaited a true power hitter and in walked David Ortiz. I could see him hitting 40+ home runs. He was in a Twins uniform. I had a favorite player.

 

..and Terry Ryan gave him up so I could instead watch Matthew Lecroy hit 60 bombs. Except over the course of 8 seasons.

 

I was sickened at that decision though it seemed everyone else was just fine with it until David Ortiz proved to be the guy I was convinced he was.

 

Let me tell you, I was quite upset when the Twins let Ortiz go. It was one of those days that I got to hear, "Settle down; what's the big deal," many times from many people.

 

I don't know about Arcia, but the Twins do waste a lot of bats.

 

[DaveW]

0-2 with a walk last night.

[SwainZag]

0-3 for Ozzie today, 2 K's.

[Willihammer]

Oh Ozzie.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v884483283/dettb-verlander-earns-strikeout-arcia-breaks-bat/?game_pk=448078

[HitInAPinch]

 

Oh Ozzie.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v884483283/dettb-verlander-earns-strikeout-arcia-breaks-bat/?game_pk=448078

 

Bo breaks bat over head.  Ok,ok he had already cracked it.  But still fun to watch!

 

https://youtu.be/pHsAjzPVKJE

[FargoFanMan]

Arcia was not and will never be your 40 home run guy. In order to hit 40+ you need more than just power. You need control of the strike zone in order to get the pitches you need to get there. Justin Morneau was that guy until he was robbed of his peak years due to injury. Sano is that guy if and when he makes the next step to being a complete hitter. In fact if Sano can take that next step he is a legit 50 home run guy for a few seasons in my opinion. Arcia... Not that guy. Doesn't mean he couldn't have been a great 5,6 or 7 hitter in a future twins lineup though. Very mismanaged.

[mikelink45]

As a diversion in a terrible season, your column makes me laugh.  Perhaps you should do a comparison of how Arcia and Ortiz were handled because it is not their potential, but the Twins ability to maximize a players potential that really counts. 

[big dog]

 

Oh Ozzie.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v884483283/dettb-verlander-earns-strikeout-arcia-breaks-bat/?game_pk=448078

Well, everyone's good at something.  I wish him the best, and was certainly hoping he'd be a part of this team, but Ortiz?  Sano?  Not hardly.

[spinowner]

I think it's well worthwhile to compare Arcia to the other players that could have been DFA'd instead. Apples vs oranges of course, but still interesting. But it's not worth anyone's time to compile or read stats on a day-by-day or even week-by-week basis. Let's wait till the end of the season.

[SwainZag]

0-2 with a BB yesterday for Ozzie.

[ashbury]

For the month of July, Arcia has an OPS of .154. If it weren't for the two walks he's taken, his OPS would be a flat zero.

 

This has been today's installment of our soap opera, As The Small Sample Size Turns.

[DJSim22]

0-3 1BB  2K  tonight.

 

40HR guy?  I guess he has 41 career home runs.  If he hits 25 in a year, I'll be surprised.

 

Kepler just hit another home run BTW. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

0-3 1BB  2K  tonight.

 

40HR guy?  I guess he has 41 career home runs.  If he hits 25 in a year, I'll be surprised.

 

Kepler just hit another home run BTW. 

 

I'm not sure what the point of this thread is other than to be a sacrificial anode for the rest of the forum. Thankfully. But I don't see the point in comparing Arcia to Kepler. Arcia wasn't cut (if the return is petty cash he was effectively cut) because of Kepler. He was cut because the Twins managed the roster to a point that they felt they couldn't keep him around anymore. The story on Arcia won't be told for years so this is a silly effort.

 

Btw, I love the way Kepler looks so far. Looks like another Morneau with a hair less power. Dude is gonna be a stud.

[DJSim22]

 

I'm not sure what the point of this thread is other than to be a sacrificial anode for the rest of the forum. Thankfully. But I don't see the point in comparing Arcia to Kepler. Arcia wasn't cut (if the return is petty cash he was effectively cut) because of Kepler. He was cut because the Twins managed the roster to a point that they felt they couldn't keep him around anymore. The story on Arcia won't be told for years so this is a silly effort.

 

Btw, I love the way Kepler looks so far. Looks like another Morneau with a hair less power. Dude is gonna be a stud.

 

It was mentioned previously, that Arcia be judged against Grossman, Kepler, and Rosario.

 

After Arcia had two 3 hits games with a homer and a couple doubles, they were a few posters saying "I told you so" on Arcia.  While I think Arcia seems like a good kid and a good teammate, I just can't agree at all.  I would rather have Vargas as a DH/PH type.  Better command of the zone, better defensively at his position, and I think marginally better on the base paths. 

 

[John Kelsey]

He's 0-20 with 10 Ks in July. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's 0-20 with 10 Ks in July. 

 

ouchy.

[laloesch]

 

He's 0-20 with 10 Ks in July. 

 

MLBtrade rumors has recently quoted Arcia as saying about his experiences in Minnesota:  

 

“I don’t think I got the opportunity to show what I could really do,” Arcia said.  “I know the class of player that I am. I don’t know that I got the time to show that.  You’re going to struggle — there are ups and downs in this game — and you’re going to make adjustments. Everybody in this room is making adjustments every day.”  Arcia also said he pressed too hard after being demoted to Triple-A last season, which didn’t help his path back to the bigs: “If you try to do too much, you’ll end up doing less.”

 

I have my opinion on this.  The Twins gave him plenty of opportunities and what did he do?  He was a butcher in the outfield and a free swinging undisciplined hitter in the batters box.  What were the Twins supposed to do with him?

[bird]

 

He's 0-20 with 10 Ks in July. 

 

 

Looks like Tampa Bay is ruining him too.