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    Where Do the Twins Go from Here


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins wrapped up their first half of baseball with a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. After taking two of three at Camden Yards a week ago, they fell a game below .500 heading into the All-Star Break. What can we make of the season thus far?

     

    Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

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    To say that Rocco Baldelli, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine hoped this collection would be playing better is selling it short. There is no denying that a Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa-led offense should be better, and one of the game's best starting rotations is suffering for it.

    Although the Cleveland Guardians don't look like a juggernaut, they will begin the second half leading the division, and it's on the players in Minnesota's clubhouse to find a way to close the gap.

    What was remarkable, ugly, and everything in between at times? Here are some takeaways from the first half.

    1. The AL Central is a Terrible Division
    Maybe this could have been expected with the Guardians doing so little over the offseason and the White Sox's most significant move being Andrew Benintendi, or the removal of Tony La Russa

    At any rate, the latter has continued to be terrible, while the former has remained mediocre. Terry Francona took the division for Cleveland last year when the Twins threw it away. They are trying to do it again at the halfway point this season, but calling any of the contending teams' real playoff threats would be lying.

    2. Pitching and Defense Aren't Enough
    Coming into the year, this Twins team looked like it was going to pitch, and there was hope they could field. Questions about the lineup were present, and additions such as Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez didn't bring the warm fuzzies to consistent production. Seeing Buxton be limited to a hit-or-miss designated hitter and Correa a shell of himself, the lineup has been among the worst in the sport.

    3. The Old Guard is Dug In
    Over the offseason, the front office had opportunities to move on from Max Kepler and chose not to. They are determined for him to show a shred of value, which continues to come at the expense of such youth as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. The Twins roster is hampered enough by having a strict designated hitter, but their handedness in the outfield, and a right fielder producing little value, has drug things down further.

    4. Bullpen Depth Wasn't Considered
    As has been the case for most of the tenure under this front office, the bullpen remains an afterthought. You don't have to spend big like the White Sox have, but not doing anything has continued to bite this group. Adding nothing more than minor league free agents left Brock Stewart and Jose De Leon as necessary developments rather than pleasant surprises. With Jorge Lopez regressing, Emilio Pagan unable to pitch in leverage, and Joah Duran only backed by Griffin Jax, Baldelli is hamstrung on a nightly basis.

    5. A Big Deadline Looms, Again
    Last year the Twins found themselves floundering as they approached the trade deadline. With injuries crushing them all over the roster, they swung big, landing Tyler Mahle and Lopez. The former was an upside play, while the latter was a response to a poor unit. They have less prospect capital they want to trade this year, and the roster has fewer logical places to add. A bat has to come, and relief help must be on the way, but Minnesota can't get burned for the second year.

    6. Belief in Better Only Goes So Far
    It's fair to assume that this Twins team should be much better. They lead the division in run differential by a substantial amount, and their Pythagorean record is far better than the mark in the standings. Expecting those things to correct themselves over 162 games is a logical ask, but at some point, time runs out. It's getting late early for this squad if they want to be better than what they have shown thus far.

    Thankfully the AL Central continues to leave the door wide open for Minnesota, but that will close as games go on, and this collection should only be given a pass if they capitalize on the opportunity. It will be a sprint to the finish, and anything but a division title following the regular season would be a failure.

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    1 hour ago, Road trip said:

    Steer and Encarnacian-Strand could hit before they were traded (probably, in the minors at least).

    But then you have to account for LaMont Wade.  And Luke Raley.  And Brent Rooker.  None of them good enough to keep, and given away.  All very good hitters now, assisted greatly one would assume by the coaches in their new organizations.

    I'll certainly place some blame on the current Twins players themselves, but it should be very apparent that the hitting coaches aren't succeeding.  

    Losing those hitters that looked like they were AAAA talent isn't the problem for me, it's that they can't find any replacements, they can't find anyone else's failed prospects and squeeze some value out of them. We have one notable success in Willi Castro, not a whole lot else since perhaps finding Ehire Adrianza on waivers. 

    And whole bunch of their big deals to hitters have failed, Marwin Gonzalez was a disaster, Andrelton Simmons couldn't hit to save his life, Donaldson didn't quite live up to the hype (but they moved him at the perfect time), and now Buxton/Correa/Vazquez aren't living up to their pay this year. 

    I understand the desire to fire Rocco; the manager always gets more credit and more blame than deserved. I actually think this roster is performing at or above the talent level with the exception of Correa, Buxton, and Jorge Lopez. Gallo and Kepler aren't very good (to put it mildly), but neither has been very good for the last 2-3 years. We really miss Polanco in the lineup, it stinks that Miranda has taken a huge step back, and it really hurts that Lewis is on the IL again. Other than that, this team is basically what you would expect in the field, better than expected on the mound, and unearthing  Solano and Castro is a very good thing. 

    The point of all this is that it doesn't scream Fire The Manager to me. It screams overhaul the roster and do it now, not in the off season. A new manager isn't going to make Correa, Buxton, Kepler or Gallo hit better -  a new manager would at most sit Kepler and Gallo IF the FO would call up Wallner and/ or Larnach. I really think that this group wins 82-85 games, may win the Central if the other teams don't perform, and promptly flames out unless we get at least 2 NEW bats in the lineup AND Buxton and Correa have better second halves of the season.  One of those bats could be Wallner or Larnach, but one probably needs to come from outside of the organization. Trade for Grinchuk, Canha or even better, Lane Thomas or Teoscar Hernandez if you can get them without gutting the system. Call up Wallner. Make the needed room by losing Gallo and Kepler even if you have to eat salary and/or get nothing but A ball lottery tickets in return. 

    Fire Rocco? Meh. Don't really care a lot because he isn't the problem and a new manager isn't the solution. Make a significant shakeup in the non-pitching side of the roster? I'm all for it.  

    2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    The place where we were at in the off season was very heavy in cOF LH bats & short in RP depth. So they signed a cOF LH bat to a big contract & failed to add a top end RP. 

    The players we traded for last year were hot the 1st half but didn't produce the 2nd half (Fulmer wasn't too bad). That's the chance we take, who can guarantee that any hot player we may target now will produce in the 2nd half? No matter what we do, our success hinges on if Correa & Buxton can get hot down the line. The line up will vastly improve when Polanco & Lewis come back, to accompany Kiriloff & our bench players.

    I'd trade Gallo + somebody else to HOU for a decent RP & stand pat. Since we failed to draft any catchers, I'd trade for a decent catching prospect. 

    They would have to decide  to make Kiriloff a full time player and not a platoon player for this plan to work.

    18 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

    Has a Rocco led team ever out performed pythagorian wins losses? Honest question... Thinking maybe 2019 did

    Great question. 

    Per BBRef (the greatest website since at least the mid 1800s)

    2023 to date: -4

    2022: -4

    2021: +2

    2020: even*

    2019: +4

     

    * 60 games, lack of spring tng, bastardized schedules, players opting out etc.

    tend to ignore 2020 when evaluating history. YMMV

     

    All of that adds up to -2, with ~45% of 2023 remaining. Not sure there's much there.

    32 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    The point of all this is that it doesn't scream Fire The Manager to me. It screams overhaul the roster and do it now, not in the off season

    7 years of this FO and it screams overhaul the roster? If that is true (not disagreeing with you), ownership should tell the FO you can mess around the margins but nothing drastic no big prospect trades and if you can turn this around, you can continue to be employed if not it is time to go separate ways.

    7 years and the highest payroll's ever and 21, 22 and 23 season happened, that should be unacceptable.

    Since Rocco made his "this is madness" comment nothing has changed except Correa now bats leadoff. Buxton is back to striking out all the time, Gallo is still ventilating the ballpark with his whiffs. The FO made a plausible bet that Correa, Buxton, Polanco, and Miranda would provide sufficient offense, and it has all gone terribly wrong. The madness continues. Please have mercy on Sonny by trading him to a contender; he deserves it. 

    The job of the manager and coaching staff is to make sure that the team gets the most out of its players. All of the comments above are about the fact that the Twins' hitters are underproducing. Does the staff not deserve blame for that?

    5 hours ago, Karbo said:

    I don't really have a problem with signing Vazquez. He is still a very good catcher, and has hit OK till joining the Twins. Gallo I was shocked. I don't know what they were expecting giving him that kind of money, but they got what Gallo has become. One thing I've noticed though, some of the hitters we trade away suddenly can hit! Is this an indication of the way our coaching staff is working with these guys?

    Yes.

    4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    So are you OK with the FO office continuing to be employed going forward? IMO there is no way they are only selling if they haven't been told their jobs are safe.

    This is a really great point.  Imagine Falvine walks into Joe Pohlad's office;

    "So we're about to miss the playoffs for the third straight year despite that record payroll you gave us, so time to start trading players away!  By the way Boss, we're really good at our jobs!  Should we start talking about our plans for 2024?"

    3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    All that is true, doesn't answer the question do you want this FO here moving forward after what they have shown the last 3 years, and my answer is a hard NO, and they aren't going to trade away players for the future if they aren't part of the future is my point.

    I agree with you.  I do not want this FO here next year and they are acting like they already know they will be here.

    Bottom line is this Twins team "should" be better than it is. They should be running away with the division because the Central is so weak. This year can't be blamed on injuries. Buxton and Correa are what they are. Buxton may never play the outfield again which takes away a huge part of his value. And nagging foot problems with Correa may be what we have to look forward to from now on.

    Worse than all of that though is the Twins are a boring team to watch. It is painful. Top to bottom there is no excitement in the lineup. We have people who can mash the ball. Sometimes. If you have four 40 home run guys in the lineup (not that we do) that is only 160 runs. Yes there "might" be people on base but we aren't made for small ball. 1 run per game will not win many games. Yes, that is an extreme look at things and very pessimistic, but this team has not given us much to look at optimistically.

    I am hoping the second half is at least a little more entertaining to watch

    4 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

    The guys that were traded away could hit before they left.

    The guys who are still here can't though, and that part might be telling.

    i.e. Luis with a .314 Career BA over 4.5 years…..Steer has excelled after a rough start last year in Cincinnati. Encarnacion-Strand is raking at AAA for Cinti.

    Rooker has been up & mostly down in Oakland.

    Not sure on other guys (former Twins) hitting elsewhere?

    ………………… 

    FO needs a bit of a break in that going into ‘23, Buxton was fully expected to be able to play 40-50% of the games, sharing with Gordon/Taylor, in CF. Polanco was expected to play 70% of this year’s games, easily. Buxton playing in CF some allows for Wallner/Julien/Larnach to get AB’s at DH. Miranda was supposed to be a 3rd or 4th best bat in line-up. CC was assumed to be a minimum .260 BA guy with 75RBI at an absolute minimum.

    Built a solid rotation - decent Pen!

    Miranda a negative - Polanco a negative - CC a negative - Buxton a negative - Gordon backward steps - Larnach no progress……….no crystal ball for the FO……disappointing group effort from the core players!!!

    Kepler/Gallo/Pagan/J. Lopez are all 4 squarely on the FO!!!

    I have been SLOW to move this way but we need to move forward or at least laterally with new faces in the line-up.

    Gallo needs to be displaced from roster. Julien needs to be allowed to flourish or not by getting another 11 weeks of MLB AB’s. Fill 3B with our bench guys until Lewis heals. Kirilloff at 1B everyday at v. RH pitching……Solano v. LH pitching. Play Castro as needed in CF or 3rd & continue to use both him & Taylor to try and manufacture runs via steals & bunts. Kepler in RF & hope we get an offer so Wallner can play last 8 weeks in RF.

    Castro - Julien - CC - Buxton - Farmer - Kirilloff - Wallner - Kepler - Jeffers - Vazquez - Taylor - Solano - Lewis OR (trade piece or youth bat in 13th spot)………trade piece would displace Kepler eventually as Lewis comes back.

     

     

    1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

    The job of the manager and coaching staff is to make sure that the team gets the most out of its players. All of the comments above are about the fact that the Twins' hitters are underproducing. Does the staff not deserve blame for that?

    Some of the comments in this very thread say it's the roster..... And that this is what we should expect, other than CC. So I have no idea how it's all.

    4 hours ago, Mark G said:

    "What was our record after the all-star break last year?  Not good.  Do we expect a repeat?"

    Good post.  As for the first question, it might not be.  We open up after the break with 23 out of the next 26 games against teams at approx. .500 on down......all the way down to Oakland.  A decent record in those games should give us a little breathing room.  And I read somewhere we have the 3rd easiest schedule in the league (or was that in all of MLB) from this point on, based on won loss records of the opponents.  With our starters going the way they are we will sneak out the Division. but where do we go from there.  As I have said here before we appear very comfortable competing in the division year in and year out, but not much else.  Time will tell us what Joe will do now that he is making the decisions.  Stay tuned............. 

    Thanks for the note - we are filled with mysteries, but if we go through these next 26 games and still have a 500 record I have to side with those who say blow it up, sell, and build with our youth. 

    6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    So are you OK with the FO office continuing to be employed going forward? IMO there is no way they are only selling if they haven't been told their jobs are safe.

    That's not the topic I was responding to.  But since you asked, my opinion changes almost daily.  The draft last weekend has me thinking "good job, boys.  Keep it up".  But then I see Wallner still in the minors and I think "They gotta go!".   Overall for me, the positives from the draft are already fading and I leaning towards booting them.

    After listening to Falvey in recent interviews, I don't think any significant trades will be made.  After checking today I find that the Twins have the easiest schedule in ALL of baseball the rest of the season.  Falvey again has said he is counting on the slumping veterans to come through.  And they should with the upcoming schedule.  Obviously if they remain stagnant or somehow play worse the management should all be gone.  To let your young highly touted by the FO prospects languish at AAA sit at St. Paul in place of Kepler and Gallo is lunacy.  I wonder sometimes why any young players would sign with Twins the way the top prospects are treated.  IMO this organization is at a crucial point.  Win the division and win it convincingly or start over starting with the FO and manager.  The remaining teams we play have a combined winning percentage of 466.  If the Twins don't pull away from the pack people have got to go.

    1 minute ago, Whitey333 said:

    After listening to Falvey in recent interviews, I don't think any significant trades will be made.  After checking today I find that the Twins have the easiest schedule in ALL of baseball the rest of the season.  Falvey again has said he is counting on the slumping veterans to come through.  And they should with the upcoming schedule.  Obviously if they remain stagnant or somehow play worse the management should all be gone.  To let your young highly touted by the FO prospects languish at AAA sit at St. Paul in place of Kepler and Gallo is lunacy.  I wonder sometimes why any young players would sign with Twins the way the top prospects are treated.  IMO this organization is at a crucial point.  Win the division and win it convincingly or start over starting with the FO and manager.  The remaining teams we play have a combined winning percentage of 466.  If the Twins don't pull away from the pack people have got to go.

    I worry that schedule will deceive them into thinking they are right....but whatever. I'm expecting them to do virtually nothing and waste the best SP in baseball.

    I wonder about something that I think is germane to this topic. We all want the team to DO SOMETHING so we will get better! There seems to be agreement that giving Wallner consistent ABs in the OF is one thing we should do, and also keeping Julien in the lineup some how.  Some want to trade for a BP piece or a bat (including me on the bat), all the while recognizing that kind of a trade will be a small upgrade at best. We're not getting a high end producer in a trade because we don't have anything left to trade that will get us a high end producer. Is there really anything else? What is it? 

    Maybe that's why this is such a frustrating conversation. We want the team to do something but there really isn't much we can do. Hey, I'm all on board with bringing up Wallner and losing either Gallo or Kepler (I would lose both and bring up Wallner and Larnach with Stevenson in reserve) and/or a trade for a veteran RH outfield bat or bullpen piece. But that's probably it is in the realm of possibility. And I know in my heart of hearts that even doing all of those things is unlikely to get us above 85 wins and a first round playoff exit unless Buxton, Correa and/or Polanco start hitting like superstars. So the frustrating part is that it really is a waiting game on those three players. It is broke and we can't fix it from the outside, we can only hope it heals itself.

    The way they are playing and the roster the FO has assembled isn't going to grow the attendance.  They are boring to watch, have no spark and don't have the players or the coaching staff to change any of that.  At the end of the day the one thing we can probably count on is low attendance is going to get Pohlad's attention and get them all fired.  Maybe it will be a 2fer and St. Peter goes too.  :)

    Everyone remember the definition of “insanity?” That’s where the Twins are right now-doing the same things over and over and expecting a different result!

    Several posters have suggested trading Gallo. Seriously? Who would want him? The Twins should have DFA’d  him on Monday, and apologized to the fan base for signing him in the first place. They got what he’s done the last 2+ years. Ugh!

    Aside from the putrid play of Correa and Buxton, the injury to Polanco is a major reason the offense is stuck in the mud. (IMHO)He is a consistent hitter who has always hit in the clutch.

    Finally, if the hitters continue their home run or nothing philosophy and continue to strikeout in alarming numbers-nothing is going to change (back to insanity!) With Correa, Buxton,Gallo, Vasquez, and Taylor in the everyday lineup, that’s likely to happen. 
    The first 2 series in the second half should define the rest of the season. If they struggle against Oakland and Seattle-which I think is a real possibility- let the selling begin and prepare to say goodbye to Rocco and Falvine.
     

     

    13 hours ago, Chris Spencer said:

    I would also consider putting Buxton on the IL until he can play in the outfield, even if that is next year or forever

    I have come to believe that the Twins risk management department structured an insurance plan which has backfired. Buxton's knee isn't good enough to play CF but not bad enough to meet the clause in the insurance contract which would indemnify the Twins for his absence.
    Hence, Buxton clogs the DH role.

    14 hours ago, Road trip said:

    Steer and Encarnacian-Strand could hit before they were traded (probably, in the minors at least).

    But then you have to account for LaMont Wade.  And Luke Raley.  And Brent Rooker.  None of them good enough to keep, and given away.  All very good hitters now, assisted greatly one would assume by the coaches in their new organizations.

    I'll certainly place some blame on the current Twins players themselves, but it should be very apparent that the hitting coaches aren't succeeding.  

    Not only the hitting coach and the assistant hitting coach at the MLB level, but also the hitting coaches within the organization should be evaluated with a critical eye.  What steps are being taken by Flavey, Levine and Baldelli?  All they seem to be doing is shrugging their shoulders and scratching their head.  Time to put together a plan for elevating the performance of the current under performing offensive players and put it into effect.  

     

    22 hours ago, Karbo said:

    I don't really have a problem with signing Vazquez. He is still a very good catcher, and has hit OK till joining the Twins. Gallo I was shocked. I don't know what they were expecting giving him that kind of money, but they got what Gallo has become. One thing I've noticed though, some of the hitters we trade away suddenly can hit! Is this an indication of the way our coaching staff is working with these guys?

    When you remember all the folks on here advocating to sign Omar Narvaez, Vasquex looks like a genius move.




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