Two Fringe Players for Twins Must Take to the Postseason

Stevenson actually got caught on Sunday, but he did raise his OPS+ from 17 to 21.

I agree with Stevenson. Not sure they want Ober in the pen in round 1 though. If Stewart comes back, and it seems to be trending that way, The top of the pen looks like Duran, Thielbar, Stewart and Varland. Add in Pagan makes 5. The only way Ober gets in is during a blowout by one team or the other.

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree with Stevenson. Not sure they want Ober in the pen in round 1 though. If Stewart comes back, and it seems to be trending that way, The top of the pen looks like Duran, Thielbar, Stewart and Varland. Add in Pagan makes 5. The only way Ober gets in is during a blowout by one team or the other.

Yeah TBH I think I leave Ober off the WC roster. For two reasons

1. He isnt used to high leverage relief so not really a big asset there

2. He is imo the clear cut option to start game 1 of ALDS should we use 3 guys in WC. 

Ober is one of our ten best pitchers and I would have him on the playoff roster.

I just want the roster to be 15 position players and 11 pitchers. (I would consider 16 and 10 frankly, but that seems a bridge too far for a team that prefers to have 1-2 pitchers do nothing most of the time as insurance than have another bench bat)

Stevenson seems like a reasonable choice as a 15th man, considering he provides defense and baserunning. I don't know about Ober; feels like he'd be the 4th starter who would then be the 11th pitcher since you only need 3 in the Wild Card. (Maeda has a history of being an impact reliever in the playoffs and would get used; would Ober?) I think there's still probably room for him (there's not much difference between carrying 7 relievers and carrying 8 in short series) but for the WC he's not the greatest fit.

I think either Ober is the game 3 starter or resting and game 1 starter of the ALDS.

It wasn’t too long ago that Rocco was asked about a relief role for Varland and Ober in a pregame show. He spoke in general about the ability to warm up quickly enough and pitch back to back and then commented about how Varland’s arm fits in that role. I also don’t think they want to burn him in long relief in game 2 and not have him fresh for a potential second round.

I wouldn’t have an arm on the team in case of a blowout. They can let the starter keep pitching as they have done many times this year. Once they get 5 from the starter they can get to the end without taxing the pen. 

SP coming out of the pen is not an issue, happens multiple times every single year in the playoffs.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, Gray and Lopez are your two rotation locks.  Maeda is a 80% SP lock.  Ober and Ryan are very possible.  That 3rd and/or 4th SP slot could be easily be a situational decision based on who they are playing, so nothing would surprise me there.

Pitching DK out of the pen yesterday should give you an idea where the Twins stand with him.  I would call him a 75% lock to make the postseason roster.  Pitching is different than hitting.  If Stewart looks strong and comes back, he could also change the BP dynamics.

Regarding Stevenson, I agree with others.  His role is 100% dependent on Buxton.  I have a hard time seeing Gordon come back at all this year. 

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

The top of the pen looks like Duran, Thielbar, Stewart and Varland. Add in Pagan makes 5. The only way Ober gets in is during a blowout by one team or the other.

Jax?

I have no idea.  Somehow Stevenson does not seem a lock the way the comments make it seen.  I like versatility, but think it might be Buxton taking Stevenson's spot.  

Couple thoughts - 1) Why can't the game one starter of the wildcard series be the game one starter of the divisional series?  Gray/Lopez can go on four days rest at that point right?  Or maybe it's an advantage to have starter #4 vs their #1 and the our 1 vs their 2 and so on.

I think Maeda is the 3rd starter.  He's done it.  He's shown flashes of great pitching this year and I think he shows up in the playoffs.  This would be Ryan and Ober's first time in playoffs.  I don't want firsts in a must win game three.  I still don't think Ryan is totally healthy either.  He made a few weird movements after some pitches last night.

26 players...

AK, Julien, Polo, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Vasquez, Jeffers, MAT, Kep, Wallner, Castro, Solano, Stevenson

Gray, Lopez, Maeda, Ober, Stewart, Pagan, Varland, Duran, Jax, Theilbar, Funderburk, Floro

And who?  Probably Gallo... maybe Keuchel even though we don't want to hear that - Ryan stays off the roster as their 4th starter.  Buxton? Gordon? Celestino (probably not)

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Pitching DK out of the pen yesterday should give you an idea where the Twins stand with him.  I would call him a 75% lock to make the postseason roster.
 

Boy your take and mine on where the Twins stand on DK are opposites.  I thought the DK bull pen performance was an audition to see what he could do against a good lineup and that this pretty much sealed the deal that he would not be on the playoff roster. 

The time for Martin was weeks ago, that ship has sailed. 

Hard pass on Keuchel. I don't want to see Paddack getting playoff innings on the comeback trail either. I'm moving Kenta to the pen. I don't feel great about Ryan starting a playoff game, but I think both present roughly the same floor with Ryan having a higher upside. 

If Ober isn't starting any of the WC games I'm not bringing him out of the pen. A dude with a lengthy injury history, who has started to wear down, isn't somebody I want throwing max effort pitches at this point. 

Last year the Guardians did not roster Civale for the wild card series. He was used as a starter in the ALDS. The Rays did roster Springs and Rasmussen and the thought was they might piggy back game 3. The reporter speculated they may both be used in game 3. They also rostered Kluber. The Mariners rostered a fourth starter in Kirby.  The Blue Jays rostered four starters.

The Blue Jays used a 13/13 split and the other three carried 14 position players and 12 pitchers.

Should the Twins roster all 5 starters? The Rays did. The Guardians rostered 3. I think I am leaning towards four starters for the wild card series. 

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

A potential blowout is actually why I include Ober.

In the playoffs, the hook on starters gets shorter. If Lopez or Gray were to give up four runs in 2.2 innings, for example, you almost have to get Stewart in to put out the fire and then try to get 3-4 innings from someone like Ober to get back on track for the next day's game.

Yeah, I know, Varland, but what if he's getting hit as well? Or what if he goes two innings in the Game 1 win and isn't available in the fourth inning of Game 2?

Then the game is likely over, or the hook is so quick he is available again the next night? Idk why you'd be eager to go back to Varland the next night if he was a disaster during the previous contest anyway. If he gives you two good innings in game 1 then it's mission accomplished. That's literally the best case scenario. The Twins shouldn't be saving bullets in the postseason. You worry about game 2 when you get there.  

18 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

Boy your take and mine on where the Twins stand on DK are opposites.  I thought the DK bull pen performance was an audition to see what he could do against a good lineup and that this pretty much sealed the deal that he would not be on the playoff roster. 

I don't think one outing will decide it.  I think he has shown enough success that they have more faith in him than they do in the bottom third of the BP come postseason.  He brings a different look than the rest of the staff (not all FB) and a veteran presence.  Unless all the injured pitchers are back with a vengeance, it is hard to see him out of the mix 

I'm absolutely taking Ober.  One poster called him one of the Twins "10 Best" pitchers.  I'd probably put him in the top 5 or 6. (Duran plus the other 4 starters)

I'd roster him, simultaneously hoping events play out to allow Ober to be saved for game 1 of the next series (if the first round goes 3 games), but keeping him available.  Ober is the "break glass in case of emergency" pitcher... like an early line drive off of a starting pitcher's ankle.  Or an extra inning playoff game.  

Look, we know Rocco is going to burn through relievers pitching one inning or less.  He's done it all year, and he will likely give starters less leash in the postseason.  It's not hard to imagine a scenario where it's the top of the 10th, and Varland, Pagan, Jax, Thielbar, and Duran have all been used already.  I'd want Ober available for that scenario alone.  He can go multiple innings in a potentially long game.  Remember, no "ghost runners" in post-season MLB games...

21 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Look, we know Rocco is going to burn through relievers pitching one inning or less.  He's done it all year, and he will likely give starters less leash in the postseason.

The Twins and Rocco are 29th in relievers used per game at 1.98. They use fewer relievers than every team but Texas. It helps that he lets his starters go deeper than most but that trend continues with the use of his bullpen.

I don’t see buxton and stevenson both rostered. I don’t think we will have less than 11 pitchers either. Many of the middle relievers won’t be rostered because guys like maeda, ober, Paddack, Varland, kuekel can and will be used to piggyback or be bullpen arms. 

All this discussion for two games?😀

I agree. It'll be over in 2 games. See ya next year.

Yes to Stevenson assuming Buxton is completely out.  
 

No to Ober because he won’t be need in relief and as many have said a 4th starter is needed to start divisional series if wild card series goes 3 games and I would want Ober as that starter.