Twins Video
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Pablo López: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (107 Pitches, 66.3%)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (19), Carlos Santana (18)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jorge Alcalá (-.686), José Miranda (-.247), Matt Wallner (-.108)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
Following a three-game span in which the Twins insisted on kicking the defending champs while they were down, they were greeted in the fourth game of the series by old friend (or perhaps nemesis?) Tyler Mahle, making his third start of the year since returning from a UCL tear suffered while pitching for the Twins. That part went well for the Twins, at least.
Mahle only made nine starts for the Twins after being acquired at the 2022 trade deadline. I normally would never blame an individual for the injuries they suffer, especially pitchers. However, with Mahle, it was reported that he didn't do the shoulder strengthening exercises prescribed to him during the 2022 stretch run, and his insistence that he was "fine" despite throwing his fastball in the mid-80s (he sat in mid-90s at his healthy best) certainly rubbed me and many Twins fans the wrong way. Despite all that, he performed pretty well for the Twins, posting a 3.64 ERA.
So it was a little cathartic to see Mahle throw quite a few fastballs at 88-89 MPH, while facing the Twins in a game that could vault Minnesota to within a game of Cleveland for the division lead. Rocco Baldelli stacked right-handers against Mahle, who has reverse splits for his career, and following a strikeout by leadoff man Willi Castro, José Miranda rifled an 89-MPH fastball just over left fielder Wyatt Langford's glove for a triple. He would score on a Trevor Larnach double, before Ryan Jeffers jumped on a 90-MPH fastball at the top of the zone and deposited it in the bullpen from a 21-degree launch angle (translation: he hit a 2-iron).
The balls put in play in the first inning in terms of exit velocity: 105, 110, 105, 92, and 103 MPH. How was Mahle feeling? He'll never tell. Besides his fastball, his split-changeup had very little action, and he only threw his slider six times, all taken for balls.
Meanwhile, Pablo López was sweating through multiple jerseys trying to keep the under-performing but powerful Rangers lineup off the board. Marcus Semien greeted López with a soft single, and all-world shortstop Corey Seager struck out on a perfectly placed sinker. A single, fly-out and a walk loaded the bases for one of the stars of last year's playoffs, Josh Jung. But Jung flew out weakly to end the threat. López threw 31 pitches in the first inning, all told.
He issued a leadoff walk to Langford in the second, but stranded him at third base, with Semien popping out to end the frame. He entered the third inning with over 50 pitches thrown, and at that point almost largely abandoned his sweeper in favor of his curveball. He started allowing more contact, but none of it was damaging, and López got through the third and fourth innings efficiently. His fastball had good life and velocity all day, sitting at 95-96 and hitting 98 MPH on occasion.
Mahle allowed an RBI single to Jeffers in the third, and following an inning-ending double play from the suddenly cold Matt Wallner, Mahle's afternoon was over, as Armando Garabito took over to start the fourth. The Twins had a hard time adjusting to the live arm of Garabito, who had previously started games for the Rangers, and went scoreless in the fourth and fifth innings.
López usually struggles when hitters can eliminate his sweeper from consideration, and it looked like his luck might run out in the fifth, with Semien singling to start the frame, bringing up Seager, who rarely lets a pitcher get him out three times in a row. He took some prodigious hacks on Lopez's best velocity of the day, but ultimately got jammed on an inside fastball, softly lining a ball up the middle. López initially tried to snag it, but pulled his glove down just in time, allowing Castro to field the ball on the bounce, right at second base, and relay to first for an easy double play.
I was thinking that Baldelli might pull López before the sixth, but with no off day until Thursday, they tried to squeeze another inning out of him. Adolis García greeted him with a screaming liner off the wall in left. He then hit Nathaniel Lowe on an 0-2 pitch. López was allowed to face Jung, who rapped into what was initially called a double play, but was overturned on review. Langford then flew out weakly, bringing up the hot-hitting Carson Kelly. With the count 2-2, the Twins' ace threw a 97-MPH fastball by Kelly on his 107th pitch, somehow completing six scoreless innings despite oodles of traffic and a 3/3 strikeout/walk ratio.
It's a good thing the Rangers were scoreless to that point, because Jorge Alcalá's afternoon started with a single to the nine-hole hitter, Leody Taveras, then a ringing double off the bat of Semien, followed by another sharp double from Seager. After retiring Josh Smith on a fly ball, Alcalá tried to sneak a 2-0 fastball up and away to García, who pummeled it 389 feet to tie the game in the blink of an eye. After striking out Lowe on a nice changeup, Alcalá again got too much of the plate, this time to the always-hacking Jung, who smashed a 1-2 fastball 420 feet to give the Rangers the lead.
It didn't look good, with the Rangers having the dominant David Robertson and Kirby Yates available to close the game out. Robertson, for his part, pitched a shutdown eighth inning, but Yates, after taking the loss in Thursday's game, gave up a mammoth home run to Carlos Santana to tie the game at five. It was the first blown save of the season for Yates, and approximately the 17th time this year Santana has brought his team back from the dead in the late innings.
Griffin Jax came on to pitch the ninth. For a moment, it looked like Garcia hit a walk-off home run with two outs, but he was just a hair out front on a changeup, and flew out to the warning track in left.
Facing lefty Andrew Chafin in the 10th, Castro advanced the zombie runner, Edouard Julien, to third, but Miranda grounded into the drawn in infield and Julien was retired at home plate. Christian Vázquez then pinch hit for Larnach and struck out, handing the Rangers a golden opportunity to walk it off.
Jhoan Durán was called upon for the fourth time in five days, and predictably, he did not have his A stuff, sitting 98-99 MPH with his fastball. He did strike out Lowe swinging for the first out, but then Jung hit a tapper to Miranda that evoked some memories of the 2004 ALCS in which Alex Rodríguez swatted away a ball that was in pitcher Bronson Arroyo's glove as he covered first. In that case, the play was called an out, but today Santana caught the ball and made a swipe tag of Jung. Unlike A-Rod, Jung did not make any sort of swatting motion, but the ball was jarred loose by his body and the ball trickled away, allowing García to score the winning run.
Trends:
| Healthy | Hurt | ||||
| Performing Great | |||||
| Fine | |||||
| Poor | |||||
| IL/Minors | |||||
| C | Ryan Jeffers 📈 | Christian Vazquez 📈 | |||
| 1B | Carlos Santana 📈 | Alex Kirilloff 📉 | Jose Miranda 📈 | ||
| 2B | Edouard Julien 📉 | Kyle Farmer 📈' | |||
| 3B | Royce Lewis 📈 | ||||
| SS | Carlos Correa 📈 | Brooks Lee 📉 | |||
| LF | Matt Wallner 📉 | Trevor Larnach 📈 | Austin Martin 📈 | ||
| CF | Byron Buxton 📉 | Manuel Margot 📉 | |||
| RF | Max Kepler 📉 | ||||
| UTIL | Willi Castro 📈 | ||||
| SP | Pablo Lopez 📈 | Bailey Ober 📈 | Joe Ryan 📉 | Chris Paddack 📉 | Louie Varland 📈 |
| RSP | David Festa 📈 | Zebby Matthews 📈 |
Simeon Woods Richardson 📈
|
||
| CR | Jhoan Duran 📈 | Griffin Jax 📈 | |||
| SR | Brock Stewart 📉 | Jorge Alcala 📈 | Cole Sands 📈 | ||
| MR | Trevor Richards 📈 | Caleb Thielbar 📈 | Steven Okert 📉 | ||
| LR | Josh Winder 📈 | Ronny Henriquez 📈 | Randy Dobnak 📉 |
Stray Notes:
-Willi Castro has been dealing with some sort of back issue in recent weeks, and appeared to aggravate his injury beating out an infield single in the third. He was checked out by trainers in the dugout but remained in the game.
-After stealing a crucial base against closer Kirby Yates in game one of the series, Wallner timed up Garabito and stole second again without a throw in the sixth. Wallner's sprint speed is decent (27.2 MPH) and I wonder if he has taken some pointers from Carlos Santana, who seems to really enjoy opportunistic base-stealing.
What’s Next: Zebby Matthews (1-0, 3.60 ERA) faces Michael King (10-6, 3.19 ERA) as the Twins head to San Diego to take on the surging Padres. Those Padres have the game's best record since the All-Star break, and are putting a scare into the perennially great Dodgers in the NL West division. King is a converted reliever having a lot of success now that he has been given a chance to start, quite similar to the Royals' Seth Lugo. Matthews makes his second career start after delivering an impressive performance against the Royals last Tuesday.
Postgame Interviews:
(Coming soon)
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Durán | 22 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 59 |
| Alcalá | 0 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 48 |
| Richards | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| Jax | 0 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 43 |
| Sands | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 27 |
| Henríquez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Okert | 15 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Thielbar | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
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