Projecting the Twins 2023 Opening Day Roster: Final Decisions

This is an interesting exercise with the injuries to Kiriloff and Polanco.  I feel like there is really not much controversy with the FO signing veterans for the bench and to fill in when needed.  

I hope for Julien, Lee, and Lewis to force the team to call them up and when they do DFA for the vets if they are not producing. We saw Santana jettisoned from the 40 man, so Solano and Farmer and Gallo can suffer the same fate if they do not live up to expectations. 

I think Larnach is now a lock to make the roster and not on the bubble. Also, Gordon will be playing 2B against RH's until Polanco gets back. IMO only two questions remain (unless Kepler being pulled yesterday actually is bad enough to create an IL stint) - will Kirilloff be on the IL start the season (and who would replace him if he was. My guess is actually Garlick to add a RH hitting OF.) and that last bullpen spot. Hoffman could be the guy but that won't last long as I predict this spot will be the pitching spot that has the back and forth train to St. Paul attached to it each time they pitch 4-5 innings in relief.

If Kirilloff is down (and can't at least DH), then Willi Castro gets the call. He would possibly play second. SHowing some base running skills that the Twins might lack. With Gallo at first, Larnach (and Taylor) will both egt outfield time. Maybe Gordon, too. 

But Kirilloff has to prove he is at least a bat option to break camp. That I have yet to see or hear about.

So far, so good. Talent, experience, youth, depth. A new conditioning coach. A hitting coach everybody seems to feel is among the best at refining and, when necessary, retooling. I'd rather have Molitor managing than Baldelli, but that ship has sailed. Right now, we're tied for first. The new rules and the fact that every team plays every other team are worth celebrating, too; the game will speed up and we'll see all sorts of talent in Minneapolis. Whatever happens, I don't see the team collapsing again in September like they did last year. Getting to the playoffs is realistic. 

It'd be a shame if Ober wasn't on the active roster when the team breaks camp. IMO Maeda & Mahle are questionable in how far they can go into a game in the beginning. So long relief is a must. Ideally Ober could fill the bill. but he hasn't been tried yet how he fares coming in after the start of the game. So until then, Maeda is the logical choice for long relief.

I agree with Flying Finn that Gordon should get the RHPs Polanco's ABs at 2B if Polanco is held back (hope Polanco get's well & makes it in the opening line-up).

Give Polanco a pink slip and let's move on with Gordon at 2B.  Guy should've seen a doc over the winter and had it fixed.

Im sure of few things.  Im sure Polanco isnt getting pink slipped to start the season.

I'm sure you are right about Farmer or Solano taking that 2B spot to begin the season.

I know many fans (myself included) are really hoping for Julien to be given the 2B Opening Day spot (just think of the great video they could take of telling him that he's starting on Opening Day!), but that's not usually how the Twins role. They'd rather have him take care of business at AAA for a month before bringing him up.

I am personally not at all sold on Solano, and he looks entirely lost at the plate, which shouldn't be the case for someone of his career stat line. Makes me wonder if there is an injury at play that isn't being disclosed.

They just need to do what they need to do for Polanco. When he's playing and healthy he's a game changing presence on the field. It's a shame that he's been so plagued by injuries throughout his career.

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

He hasn’t been impressive thus far. Solano has been a solid hitter for the last four years, but he’s 35. Sometimes players that age fall off a cliff. I would give him 40-50 ABs in the regular season. Most likely by then he’ll be “Donnie barrels”, if not, see ‘ya. 

Those 40 to 50 at bats could be all Lee needs before being called up to the MLB club!  I would bet my paycheck Lee's rookie season will be better than Solano's age 35 season.  

I keep hoping that the Twins will roll with Ober as the #5 starter over Maeda. While I understand the argument behind starting Maeda and keeping Ober warm in AAA until one of our starters inevitably gets hurt, it feels difficult to justify Maeda holding a rotation spot over Ober after watching Spring Training, especially considering their respective performances and the fact that Ober is now touching 94 MPH with the fastball. 

Even prior to undergoing TJ Surgery, it seemed like Maeda was in decline. His fastball velocity is hovering around the danger zone of 90 MPH, and while he's still capable of getting guys out because of the quality of his off-speed pitches, his control has been lacking so far this Spring. 

I'm confident that if Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton were asked "Who gives you the better chance to win a game on May 14th, Bailey Ober or Kenta Maeda?" (and they could respond honestly) they would answer Bailey Ober. Starting the year with Maeda in the bullpen serving either as a piggyback to Ober or another starter who isn't fully built-up or as a long-man who pitches twice a week seems like the best option if we're trying to win as many games as possible (the games in May count the same as the games in September). When a starter inevitably goes down with an injury, someone like Varland or SWR could come up for a spot start while Maeda builds back up for an extra week to fill the injured SP spot. 

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

 Also, Gordon will be playing 2B against RH's until Polanco gets back. 

Yeah. Odd omission to not even mention Gordon as an option at 2B considering, especially considering he has only played middle infield this spring with the last few games playing 2B. 

The proverbial writing is on the wall.

4 hours ago, Tyler from Oregon said:

I'm sure you are right about Farmer or Solano taking that 2B spot to begin the season.

I know many fans (myself included) are really hoping for Julien to be given the 2B Opening Day spot (just think of the great video they could take of telling him that he's starting on Opening Day!), but that's not usually how the Twins role. They'd rather have him take care of business at AAA for a month before bringing him up.

I am personally not at all sold on Solano, and he looks entirely lost at the plate, which shouldn't be the case for someone of his career stat line. Makes me wonder if there is an injury at play that isn't being disclosed.

They just need to do what they need to do for Polanco. When he's playing and healthy he's a game changing presence on the field. It's a shame that he's been so plagued by injuries throughout his career.

He has played thru almost all of them until last year. Polo is a true gamer.

I would like to see Julian get a shot. Start Larnach at AAA and let Julian have a crack at 2nd.

Big hit to offence without Krill and Polo....line up gets thin quickly 

Hoping like crazy Polanco's tendinitis is manageable and he's ready a couple games to a couple weeks after the start of the season.

Super excited to see Kirilloff playing games, hitting the ball HARD, and getting ready. NO PROBLEM if he takes a month to get confident and comfortable as the long game with him is what's important.

Gordon and Farmer play 2B in the short term. HUGE fan and believer in Julien, and he's had a great ST and WBC. But I also have zero problem with him starting the year at St Paul. Especially if the Twins really feel Polanco will be ready shortly after the season starts. 

Larnach will play LF against RHP to start, Gallo at 1B, sharing time with Salono, and moving back to LF against LHP, where he's been generally equally splits  against. Taylor also figures in.

This is where the depth created comes in to play. The question is who becomes the 13th position player? Is it Garlick for a powerful RH bat? Or the young, experienced, versatile Castro coming off a great ST but with some unsustainable numbers? Julien remains that phone call away, but do they make that call at this point? Especially if it might be only for a couple of weeks?

ONE spot to fill, even temporarily, that offers some interest.

It's the 13 man staff that has my attention right now.

As long as I've followed baseball, one thing I've learned is to never pay great attention to ST numbers. And that might be most true for pitchers. How many times have we questioned ST results...never understanding some pitchers were simply stretching themselves out, or working on a pitch or two...only to see the bell ring for the regular season and they looked like what we hoped for and expected?

Right now, are we worried about Mahle, who looked good early and had high velocity? Or has he been working on his new slider and experimenting with different grips and offerings? Same with Maeda. His early velocity was really close to career norms. He throws 6 different pitches. Is he, the veteran that he is, just stretching put after so much lost time and "playing around" with all of his offerings? Or do we need to be worried about actual results?

And the truth is, only the Twins know. But it remains hard for us, as outside observers, to know where the rubber meets the road at this point.

It PAINS me to say Pagan is a given to make the pen opening day because I just think keeping him was a mistake. MAYBE, he's a 2 inning middle reliever we can count on for middle innings. Alcala has looked exactly as hoped. What more does Moran have to do to prove he's part of the pen now, and the future?

So that leaves ONE spot on a 13 man staff, barring injury or another Pagan implosion too many. 

I don't buy in to the piggy back idea. What happens if Maeda, for example, pitches well for 4-5 innings in a close game, and is ready to be pulled, and a couple of quality LH batters are up next? Does Ober come in? Or do you turn toward Thielbar or Moran at that point? 

I'm OK with a 6 man rotation if you're skipping a start here and there for someone still ramping up and getting 100% right, and the "skipped" starter either gets in his bullpen sessions, and/or, comes in to a game to throw a couple middle innings. That's how a 6 man rotation should work, IMO. To be more direct, let's assume Mahle and Maeda look good, but are still ramping up and working on a couple things. At this point, as good as he looks, Ober is just not a 6 PLUS pitcher. Gray, Lopez, and Ryan are the "stalwarts". So the pen STILL has 8 arms as the "off" starter gets real time throws instead of a pen.

Just spitballing here as to how to complete a 13 man staff with the best arms.

I think there's a reasonable chance someone stays behind with an IL stint due to mystery injury or the proverbial "tired arm" syndrome to begin the season. At that point, who fills the 8th man spot in the pen? 

Winder and Henriquez, unfortunately, or out for now. I'm not sure Sands is ready, but could be a surprise. With an open 40 man spot right now, do the Twins go with Hoffman, Coloumbe, DeLeon, or Ortega? They seem to be the most likely candidates. And each offers something different. 

Hoffman offers late career potential and with past starting experience, a middle man with Pagan. Is it possible DeLeon has finally arrived at the Twins to be a solid middle reliever? Coloumbe has been really good in his tenure as a Twin. Why not a 3rd LH in the pen? Ortega was a surprise addition as he actually pitched pretty well with the lowly Angels previously. 

The 13th man for the staff is as interesting as the 13th man position player. And BOTH could be gone a month in to the season as health gets better. And it's a LONG season. But even with injuries and speculation, and some possibly quick roster changes, it sure is nice to realize that the opening day roster really comes down to the 25th and 26th possibilities rather than trying to figure out how they cover spots.

I think DeLeon IS that guy.  I could easily see him breaking camp with the team.  Leash on pagan has to be pretty short as well.  I'm totally on board with the "vets" we signed getting first crack.  But if they struggle at the plate and Lee and Julien are raking I agree we could see one or both of them within the first month or so.  

Did the Twins get the short end of the stick in the Rogers/Rooker for Paddack/Pagen trade?  Paddack is out and Pagen not so good?  Rooker is having a good spring training and seems that Rogers is decent and will play

Still don't understand Ober being sent down when he is clearly better than Maeda at this point. Help me make sense... Ober is the insurance policy when one of the starters gets injured and he has had injury issues himself so no one is sure he can make it a whole season .... yet what will he be doing in the minors, racking up innings ? He may have been the best SP this spring and the reward is being sent to St. Paul. IMO that isn't how it should work, players that earned a starting role should start.  

Won't talk about the pitchers, rather the infield.  It is likely that AK will begin the season either on the IL or at St. Paul.  The season starts a week from Thursday, just doesn't seem like he has the time to get enough at bats against MLB pitching to be ready.

Then there is Polonco.  He hasn't played in a game, even on the back fields that I have heard of.  So he is definitely on the IL on opening day.  Will he be ready in a few weeks?  Month?  More?

Then we have our third infielder, Miranda.  I know he has played a lot at DH,  But has he been in the field in any game?  If he isn't ready to play in the field next Thursday, will he be on the roster.  Probably will, but not playing in the field.

So it is likely that three-quarters of their infield won't be ready to play in the field come opening day.  I know a lot of you are talking about Julien.  Yup, this situation could get him with the Twins come opening day.  But there is another guy who has been having a hell of a spring, Willi Castro.  And he has played a lot at third base.  Could he be the surprise name on the 26-man come next week?

21 hours ago, Rosterman said:

If Kirilloff is down (and can't at least DH), then Willi Castro gets the call. He would possibly play second. SHowing some base running skills that the Twins might lack. With Gallo at first, Larnach (and Taylor) will both egt outfield time. Maybe Gordon, too. 

But Kirilloff has to prove he is at least a bat option to break camp. That I have yet to see or hear about.

I am also on board with Castro starting with the big club.  He has looked very good this spring and gives us another IF 

I cannot believe Pagan is going to make the opening day roster.  This lone inclusion on the roster already has me prepared to be lingering in the basement of the Central most of the year.

25 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

I cannot believe Pagan is going to make the opening day roster.  This lone inclusion on the roster already has me prepared to be lingering in the basement of the Central most of the year.

It's been fascinating to watch the guy not only re-sign with the team, but then look awful during Spring Training, and now still have a spot on the roster. He must have some dirt of Falvey or something.