Don't Give Up On These Twins Quite Yet

In ‘06 the catalyst was getting rid of Castro and Batista in favor of Bartlett and Punto.

A big slugger getting hot helped a little too.

You mention '06.  That's a great year in Twins history.

Yes, they stormed back from a poor start, and a few players, Punto and Morneau in particular, led the way.

But, for me, the amazing thing was, the Twins played the whole season, even ended their last game, and had never been in 1st place, not once, and do you know what happened? 

The Tigers lost, and the Twins vaulted into first for the only time all season, after their season was already over.

So, anything can happen, even a clubhouse pow-wow with an underperforming first-baseman who could eventually become an MVP,... but, history has no responsibility to repeat itself.

And I sincerely doubt it will.

Of course the 2006 Twins, who played .680 ball over their last 100 games, is the best-case scenario. This year the team probably will have to play almost as well to catch Cleveland or Seattle; a .620 pace would get them to 90 wins. Trouble is, only three teams in Twins history have played better than .600 ball after Game 62 (the '65 and '69 Twins were the other two). Last year, even with the August surge, they were a .520 team over their last 100 games.

Winning pct. after Game 62 by Twins teams that made the playoffs or won 90 games:

2017 .520

2010 .580

2009 .564

2006 .680

2004 .580

2003 .550

2002 .586

1992 .570

1991 .580

1988 .570

1987 .500

1970 .570

1969 .630

1967 .596

1965 .640

1963 .586

1962 .550

If they finish at a .570-.580 pace like the 2010, 1991-92, 1988, 1970, and 1963 teams--some of the best teams in Twins history--they'll wind up with 85-86 wins; and that would be more enjoyable to watch, of course, but most likely would fall short of the playoffs.

A .600 pace and 88 wins might come close, but I really think they'll need more than 90 wins. And that means matching the hottest finishes of the Killebrew era--the '65 team with Killebrew, Oliva, Versaille, Allison, Hall, Battey, and a loaded starting rotation that won 102 games and the AL pennant, and the '69 team with Killebrew, Oliva, Carew, Allison, Tovar, Reese, and two 20-game winners in the rotation that won 97 games--or that 2006 miracle run. Honestly, I don't expect to see the likes of that 2006 finish from a Twins team ever again.

The Twins have every reason to wait until as close to the deadline as possible. We're still six weeks away from that. This regime has shown it won't hold onto the false hope of compensation, but it also has shown it will add to its chances until the last moment. How they dealt with Jaime Garcia proves both points.  

I think the Twins have until the ASB to make hay.  If they can get consistent then all is not lost.  

Nick is right the pitching, starting, has been good.  What we should expect.  The offense has been anemic and a huge dissapointment.

I would hope the FO and manager get a little more creative at SS, and our 4th outfielder and eventually catcher.  Too many black holes.

Cleveland's Rameriz has become a bona fide star in two years and one of the best players in MLB.  They win that battle over our perceived star at that position (well we thought he was a star at this point last year).

One thing not mentioned about 2006 is the pitching was top notch. That year's Cy Young winner was our second best starter for much of the season and the bullpen was a brick wall (Juan Rincon's juicing admittedly probably being part of that). This year's pitching has been satisfactory for the most part but not like 2006.

I generally concur with the sentiments here. 4 valuable members of the lineup have been either unavailable or hampered by injury: Buxton, Sano, Mauer and Polanco. Even though it's unlikely we'll get 2006 hot I think we leave Detroit, KC and the tighty Whities far behind as the rest of the season unfolds and those players return to form. Catching Cleveland? We can only do what we can do and if they stumble there's a chance. What I really think will happen is that we will have 95+ wins in 2019.

I'm discouraged but not ready to write off the team's chances just yet. Lots of variables and "What Ifs" still at play. Buxton could come back and put it all together. Mauer could be healthy and productive again. Polanco will return and show the form we saw in the second half last year. Santana will also be back and should help the rotation. Morrison might get hot. And another wild card, Michael Pineda might help the final couple of months (on that note: does anyone know what is his timeline to join the club?). Plenty of things that COULD help the team in the coming months, but who knows how it will all play out? But hey, that's the joy --- and aggravation -- of this game.

This roster isn't a 96 win roster, but that is not to say that it can't get hot.

Cleveland is good, but not immortal.

Getting the squad healthy/un-suspended will be a huge help.

Unfortunately, it's still probably not enough to nab a playoff spot.

There are a lot of quality arms in the bullpen, but it's been leaky at the wrong times.

The approach at the plate on the part of the hitters is pathetic.

We can't count on the starting staff to pitch 7+ innings indefinitely. They've almost been suspiciously hot.

Most of all, the Indians are likely an Andrew Miller activation and a trade for a reliever away from being a complete team.

The Twins have a 10% chance to make the playoffs. They have a 7% chance to win the AL Central. Hopeless? No. But don't count on it. 

Due to equally mediocre competition (a key component of wins and losses believe it or not) the Twins will continue to win games but in a very unreliable and unpredictable manner . Taking 3 of 4 against the Indians after falling behind 9-0 in game one is a classic example. Then what happens? Split with the lowly White Sox and losing a home series against the Angels. Rosario, Escobar a rookie pitcher and at least decent overall pitching have kept them in the "fair to middl'n" category so far. Mauer, Buxton, Sano, Santana, Polanco non factors for various reasons. Twins will continue to flounder around the .500 mark because they cannot sustain any long winning streaks. How they do it will be the interesting part. Upcoming road trip against Detroit and Cleveland 3-3 is realistic best that can be expected. Red Sox and Cubs on the horizon. .500 ball would be nice.

Its not the 6 games back that is so daunting.    There may not be hundreds of teams that have come back from as big or bigger deficits but definitely multiple dozens and I can think of 4 of those seasons for the Twins alone.   3 of them happen to represent some of the best races in baseball history.   Forget about the odds and the record they have to have from here on out.   One thing I have learned from 6 decades of watching baseball is that the view now and the view 10 days from now can be very different.   Sano and Dozier get hot and the breaks fall our way and maybe we win 8 of 10 with Mauer, Buxton and Polanco near ready to rejoin the team.   Of course it can go the other way as well especially since we don't have some of our best players and a couple of the other of our best players just aren't playing well and we could lose 8 of 10 just as easily.   

For now though?  Give up on my team when they are out 6 games?   I wouldn't even do that in August.

So, anything can happen, even a clubhouse pow-wow with an underperforming first-baseman who could eventually become an MVP,... but, history has no responsibility to repeat itself.

 

And I sincerely doubt it will.

Affirmative, Old Twins Cap. I read you.

I'm sorry, Old Twins Cap. I'm afraid I can't do that.

I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.

This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it.

I know that you and another unnamed TD poster were planning to give up on this season, and I'm afraid that is something I cannot allow to happen.

Go Twins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I still think there's hope. The pitching has improved significantly. And with the offense performing like they did in last year's second half, they would be a legit playoff quality team. Could that happen? Yes! They still have all the key players from last year's offensive breakout, plus Morrison. Why not?

Is it a huge surprise they haven't? Not really -- subtract Polanco, and significant stretches of Mauer, Sano, Buxton and Santana to injury, and it's exactly what you'd expect!

The real question is whether their performance last year can be replicated. And all those guys could rebound. We don't even need all of them at once; just take turns getting hot like last year, and we'll be fine.

But I have to admit it's looking less and less like something to count on. What if Buxton and Sano really have incurable problems with pitch recognition? What if Mauer's concussion symptoms return long term? What if Polanco's offensive surge was chemically enhanced? It might be that last year was the illusion, not this one.

Still, it happened before, for three whole months, so it's not total fantasy to imagine it happening again. The potential is there.

Maybe Buxton's slow spring was really about migraines he wasn't mentioning, even before his broken foot. Maybe Sano's legs are still bothering him but he'll be back. Maybe Mauer will pick up where he left off with a .400 OBP. Maybe Polanco, Morrison, Dozier, and Kepler will surge again. The good thing is, they don't need all of these to happen -- just any three, on any given day, and their offense will be right back where they were last year. And that would be fun to watch.

If it turns out Buxton and Sano just can't hit big league pitching, then I'll be very, very bummed. But I've despaired about them both before -- which only made their hot streaks even more exciting! They have it in them, somewhere. If they finished strong, think how good that would feel. Just seeing them get back on an upward trend would be a huge weight off, and make every game fun to see. But add a few other players getting hot as well, and a few key injuries to Cleveland, and it could still happen this year. Think back on the past six years, and then to the end of last year; we're a lot closer than it seems.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp#20100713

Of course the 2006 Twins, who played .680 ball over their last 100 games, is the best-case scenario. This year the team probably will have to play almost as well to catch Cleveland or Seattle; a .620 pace would get them to 90 wins. Trouble is, only three teams in Twins history have played better than .600 ball after Game 62 (the '65 and '69 Twins were the other two). Last year, even with the August surge, they were a .520 team over their last 100 games.

 

Winning pct. after Game 62 by Twins teams that made the playoffs or won 90 games:

 

2017 .520

2010 .580

2009 .564

2006 .680

2004 .580

2003 .550

2002 .586

1992 .570

1991 .580

1988 .570

1987 .500

1970 .570

1969 .630

1967 .596

1965 .640

1963 .586

1962 .550

 

If they finish at a .570-.580 pace like the 2010, 1991-92, 1988, 1970, and 1963 teams--some of the best teams in Twins history--they'll wind up with 85-86 wins; and that would be more enjoyable to watch, of course, but most likely would fall short of the playoffs.

 

A .600 pace and 88 wins might come close, but I really think they'll need more than 90 wins. And that means matching the hottest finishes of the Killebrew era--the '65 team with Killebrew, Oliva, Versaille, Allison, Hall, Battey, and a loaded starting rotation that won 102 games and the AL pennant, and the '69 team with Killebrew, Oliva, Carew, Allison, Tovar, Reese, and two 20-game winners in the rotation that won 97 games--or that 2006 miracle run. Honestly, I don't expect to see the likes of that 2006 finish from a Twins team ever again.

It's not likely the Twins make the playoffs but it can happen:

The   2009 W% after 62 games was 484.

Last year, the low point came later - the 2017 W% after 104 games: .481 (50-54)

The bar is a lot higher this year - Boston/NY are going to take one WC spot and the Mariners have a commanding lead for the other. It looks pretty grim. Still, why not see where the Twins are at the All-Star break before giving up? Nothing much will happen on the trade front until then anyway. 

I think if they can be within a 2-3 games of .500 by the All Star Break, (45-47 wins).  They might have a chance.    I've now tempered my expectations for the season.   81 wins would be ok.    Anything more is gravy.   I think the starting pitching has been good enough for a better than .500 finish.   Just have to:  

I must clarify why this roster isn't a 96-win roster. The 2006 Twins team was far superior to this Twins team. 

The 2006 team had the following:

Star Catcher

MVP First Baseman

Gold Glove CF that COULD HIT!

2 left-handed Cy-Young candidates

An excellent bullpen with no less than 5 reliable arms.

This team has a lot of potential, but there should not even be a comparison to the 2006 team. We will be lucky to even have a league average catcher. There are no MVP candidates on this team. Our Gold Glove center fielder can't stay on the field. There are no Cy-Young candidates. The bullpen has some good arms, but is leaky.

As it turns out, 2017 was a classic case of being slightly better than all the other mediocre teams in the AL while having the benefit of playing in a weaker division. Maybe this team just isn't as good as we thought.

Thanks for the article and all the comments. I think the team has until close to the trade deadline to turn it around. Unfortunately, they have less room for error this year, since the wild card slots aren't there for the taking. It's either catch Cleveland (and Detroit!) or stay home. The fact that they're 3-13 in one-run games means they're capable of a turn around. Tommy Lasorda used to say that the best team loses a third of its games, the worst team wins a third of its games, and that it's the other third, the games that can go either way, which make the difference between a winning and a losing record. That 3-13 makes me cringe and for me it's the story of the season to this point, but it also tells me the team is competitive and that there's still hope.