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  • Christian Vázquez is Flashing Some Red Flags


    Cody Pirkl

    The Twins went and got their guy this winter, inking Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30m deal. Unfortunately in the early going, the red flags are already piling up.

    Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Christian Vázquez was a plus defender in 2022 and around league average hitter, making him one of the premier catchers on the market. It was enough for the Twins to outbid other interested teams in uncharacteristic fashion. Between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, Vázquez’s bat in particular looks to be headed in the wrong direction. Is it worth worrying about?

    Vázquez had an all-around solid 2022 season, albeit with a rough ending. The Red Sox-turned-Astros backstop was traded at the deadline and struggled down the stretch, posting a .470 OPS in September. It’s a trend you’ll sometimes see from a catcher as they wear down late in the season, and often is tough to avoid.

    Vázquez’s struggles have carried into 2023 as we’ve reached a third of the way through. The Twins backstop has posted a sub .600 OPS so far at age 32, and he’s showing signs that his age is catching up to him at the plate. 

    The most obvious issue is that Vázquez has yet to collect a barrel at the plate. By definition, a barrel is categorized as a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph struck at a launch angle of 26-30 degrees. For every tick above 98 mph, the launch angle expands to meet the definition of a barrel. Thus far, Vázquez has an average exit velocity of 86.3 mph. His launch angle is 10.4 degrees. Both are his worst since 2017.

    Vázquez has a reputation of being a hitter that puts the ball in play for better or worse, rarely walking or striking out. So far, his 24.1% K rate is up from any other season in his career. Digging deeper into his K rate is an even more worrisome trend.

    Vázquez has whiffed more against offspeed pitches and breaking balls, but he’s also posting a career-worst whiff rate against fastballs at 23.6% after doing so 15.1% of the time last season and 11.7% of the time in 2021. Vázquez is undeniably trending in the wrong direction when it comes to catching up to fastballs. 

    Vázquez is still by all accounts a great defender behind the plate despite a few errors early in the season. That being said, this isn’t what the Twins signed up for. With a 71 wRC+, Vázquez has been a zero in the Twins' inconsistent lineup. Catchers are almost always defense-first players and often provide no offensive value at all. The Twins had their choice of several such catchers this winter if they chose to go that route, but decided to pick out Vázquez due to his ability to provide a bit more. So far he has not.

    Hopefully, this is just some sort of slump for Vázquez in the early going, but anytime a 32-year-old catcher loses all power and starts slipping against fastballs, red flags go up. The catching position endures so much wear and tear that players at the position can fall off quickly. There’s a lot of time and money left on the contract, and while Vázquez has been as advertised behind the plate, the Twins would leave a good bit of value on the table over the length of the deal if this is the offense he provides. Luckily they have Ryan Jeffers to hopefully pick up the slack if need be, but the beginning of Vázquez’s Twins career is disappointing. Can he turn it around?

     

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    The Twins never seemed in on Murphy, so Vasquez was a great signing. A less than stellar start with the Twins won't be a concern if Christian can get untracked to provide some quality at bats and be the catcher needed for the pitchers. I'm not too worried right now, especially because Jeffers is looking much better as a catcher.

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    Good analysis. Yep, history suggests the age (32) and the data to be correlated, especially at catcher. Let’s see how it plays out though. In the meantime, let’s give Rocco credit for playing the hot bat more and not worrying about the optics vis-a-vis the more expensive FA.

    However, the FO had no choice this off season at C. There just wasn’t enough/any depth in the system and Jeffers couldn’t be relied upon as a sure #1.  It could be we end up overpaying on Vasquez, but if we end up over the next two years + with a Jeffers/Vasquez backstop at their weighted average cost, things will probably be ok, if not pretty good.  I’m not knocking the FO on this signing (but I reserve the right to later - hahaha); there is a lot lower hanging fruit to pick on that front.

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    They're paying him $10 million a year for three years, so it's not a super big albatross - and baseball's only salary cap is a team's internal budget. The barrel rate chart is a bit unfair, comparing 1/3 of a season to 3/3rds of a season. Your stats are otherwise solid, but catcher (along with SS and to some extent CF) is a position where defense comes first, and offense is gravy. For now, the pitching staff looks good, and you have to give the catchers some credit for that. Even so, Jeffers is starting to impress at the plate, so this may work itself out.

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    I'm surprised how little criticism there has been of Vazquez since he has been a black hole in the lineup most of the season. We knew he was signed for defense, but it hasn't been fun to watch at the plate. Theres a level of offense where the defense just doesn't make up for it, I think its called Butera-esque.

    He has had a couple of good games lately, but more importantly Jeffers has been tearing it up in increased usage which has been critical for a couple wins.

    I've always been a fan of Jeffers and really thought he would be a seemless replacement to Garver with less bat but enough additional defense not to miss it that much. I had to temper my expectations last year that he would be that kind of starting catcher, but I've never totally given up on the dream.

    I think Jeffers' defense has continued to improve at the MLB level. His biggest issue has been a large platoon split which tends to kill a batting line for a regular RH hitter. He's actually crushed righties this year and I'm hoping it's a sign that he's just breaking out as a hitter.

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    Not upset at the signing for a defensive catcher  over the winter  ....

    His defense is his calling card  and whatever his hitting is  and hopefully  better will be butter on the toast  ....

    It's a demanding position  and we'll have to wait it out to judge later who was the better catcher at the end of the season  ...

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    It seem Vasquez strikes out a lot on the high heat.  If he could avoid swinging at those his numbers would improve dramatically.  I agree with HrbieFan, we need to work on making contact particularly situationally.  Last I checked we lead the lead in whiffs.  This is where an active and engaged hitting coach would be helpful.  

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    Let's face it...he was never going to be the second coming of Johnny Bench, but it would be nice if he hits a little bit better than he has. His defense has been fine so far. I think we give it some more time and see if he picks it up at the plate going forward. Meantime, give Jeffers more time in the lineup. Maybe a 50-50 split, 

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    Not to worried about his hitting. Signing him made complete sense last winter, and I was surprised and happy they did. This team has spent a lot more on riskier contracts. Lopez getting $75 million for one. Someone who has great stuff but has never turned in results to match, and has had recurrent shoulder problems. I think this is the one to worry about.

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    What I find interesting is that they gave up on Garver at age 32 but signed Vazquez at 32 for $10MM a year.  Yes needed a catcher but it does appear to be an severe overpay at the moment.  

    Last 8 games is 2 wins and 6 losses as the starting catcher.  Jeffers is 5-0 in his last 8 as the starter. 

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    A birthday shout out to Jeffers, who has performed admirably with the stick this season. Well at least Vasquez's 2023 WAR is in the top 1/3 for catchers right now- better than a number of other team's starting C's.

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     Jeffers continues to play/hit like he has, Vazquez becomes the 1B to Jeffers' 1A.  It's an overpay for that at 10 million but still leaves the club in a really good position.  I suspect a 60/40 split going forward may benefit Vazquez as well.

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    Didn't he DH for the Astros in the World Series? The hitting has not been what I would expect, and the defense has been OK. Jeffers has been getting the odd game in the job share lately and I think that is fair. 

    Given the lack of options in the Twins system, it would be good to keep both guys as fresh as possible and their jobs appear secure for the foreseeable future. 

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    With Jeffers hitting better than expected, this balances out the catcher position to make up for Vasquez's light hitting so far.  I still like the signing even though at this point it appears to be an over pay.  Let's give him some more time to see where this goes.

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    36 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

    What I find interesting is that they gave up on Garver at age 32 but signed Vazquez at 32 for $10MM a year. 

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    To answer the OP's question directly, no I am not worried. Why? The answers are all right there; catchers are primarily important on D, and "all accounts" say he is doing that job well. His professional play behind the plate is a big reason the SPs are MLB front runners in several categories.

    The hitting is up and down, but that is almost always the case when you compare full data sets (as in complete seasons) to partial data (as in a couple months). I still love the signing, and am not discounting Vasquez's example for helping Jeffers mature. As others have mentioned, a more equal split in duty would be helpful to both, and that doesn't make the Vasquez contract bad; it confirms the wisdom of signing (and paying) a true pro to an area of deep need.

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    Hoping Vasquez can turn it around a bit but the numbers are very troubling.  
     

    The issue is the Twins haven’t drafted or developed Catchers and you have no other options passed signing one to a longer term deal this last offseason.
     

    I was a Big Ben Rortvedt fan but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  Thought he was a perfect paring with Jeffers as he was great defensively and a LH bat. Looks like they moved off Garver as well at the perfect time.  Both those trades were wins for the Twins overall. 
     

    I do hope the Jeffers and Vasquez playing time flips now and Jeffers gets the 60% of the starts and Vasquez takes the latter.  Jeffers has looked like the guy with the bat and has looked really improved defensively behind the plate.  

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    3 hours ago, umterp23 said:

    What I find interesting is that they gave up on Garver at age 32 but signed Vazquez at 32 for $10MM a year.  

    They traded Garver away at age 30 two seasons ago. Since then he's only appeared in 60 MLB games due to injury.

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    4 hours ago, umterp23 said:

    Last 8 games is 2 wins and 6 losses as the starting catcher.  Jeffers is 5-0 in his last 8 as the starter. 

    I'm not following how Jeffers can be 5-0 in his last 8 as the starter. Are you treating him like a pitcher, where if he leaves the game and it is tied, it doesn't count? I don't think that is an accurate way to do it, for several reasons. Regardless, this seems like a stat with way too many exogenous variables to have much predictive value.

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    I was expecting that the contract would turn out for Vasquez to catch 60% this year, there be a 50/50 split next year and Jeffers catching 60% in 2025. If Vasquez is really making that much of a difference in the pitching staff, then perhaps he can help coach Jeffers up on the defensive end. Jeffers has thrown out 35% of attempted base stealers with only 2 errors so far this year.

    I always expected Jeffers to be a good hitting catcher and a better defensive catcher than given credit for. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him make the allstar team in the next couple of years. Though not this year.

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    "As advertised behind the plate"? Not really. Almost all of his throws to 2nd tail badly to the right plus he has a lot of balls that get away from him at the plate. Looks like a horrible deal. Twins need more production from the catcher position!

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    50 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

    "As advertised behind the plate"? Not really. Almost all of his throws to 2nd tail badly to the right plus he has a lot of balls that get away from him at the plate. Looks like a horrible deal. Twins need more production from the catcher position!

    I don't think they've gotten great production from their catchers, but there are probably 20 other teams that aren't satisfied with what they're getting. Of all catchers, Jeffers ranks ninth in WAR and Vázquez is 32nd. 

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    Right on cue Vazquez hits a big double tonight against the Guardians that leads to a run!

    He's being $10M per to be an experienced, quality game caller, defender, thrower, and staff leader. And he's doing those things. Yes, he's slumped since a good start. But he's not the only one. And while he's been slumping quite a bit lately, there's a lot of season left to start heating back up. But his #1 job is be a CATCHER. 

    Despite being an iron man, I do think he might benefit from a more even time share with Jeffers, who is having a great season thus far. I've always liked Jeffers behind the plate, but it looks like he's gotten better. And the bat potential has always been there. Experience and some work he's put in with Popkins to make some adjustments seem to be paying off. 

    And I heard in the pre-game the duo has thrown out 35% of attempted base stealers. That's one if the best marks in all of MLB.

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