Sonny Gray, “Wouldn’t shock me if I didn’t play anymore after this year”

With the season he's put together, primed for a FA payday, I have no idea what Sonny was thinking (I'm sure his agent is "thrilled").  I still worry about him returning to his "mean" in the 2nd half of the season which was why I wasn't opposed to considering dealing him at his highest value (and dealing for someone like Blake Snell who seems to do very well in the 2nd half of seasons lately).  So yeah, his statement was a real head scratcher.  

Kind of a questionable thing to say on his part, but I'd be willing to bet he's pitching somewhere next season. Probably not here, but somewhere. 

Gray was likely reflecting on the grind of being a baseball player, always on the road with his family growing up without him. Salesmen and construction workers, among many other professions, also can be gone from home for periods of time. When you are newly married or have young children it can be difficult. I made a career change around 30 for that reason and never regretted missing out on the hit financially. Sonny Gray has a young family.

Professional athletes at the highest level are incredibly driven. I read that article as just a comment on the struggles of being a baseball player. I would put money on Gray playing next year. He is quite likely to get a three year deal in the offseason (pure guess - 3/$60M). Only an injury will change the outcome. Gray has been a good pitcher. 

Totally agree with the family angle, especially right after getting to spend a few days with his boys at the All-Star game. He's got some money, the long hot summer grind is about to start again and he's been fielding questions about qualifying offers and how disappointing the team has been so it would be natural to toy with the idea of going home. But he's a very competitive guy, he's putting together another injury-free season (knock on wood) and he's getting to pitch as deep as his efforts merit on any given day, so there's not a ton to complain about. And when folks come around with 3/60 or 4/75 there's almost no way he doesn't answer the call.

Some of the quotes are a little strange to hear, but it's really unclear from the quotes what he's actually thinking about his impending free agency.

Would he want to stay in Minnesota or does he have another destination in mind?  Does it mean he would actually accept a QO to stay put even if though he can get a multi-year deal?  Or is he looking for one final long-ish contract?

Won't change how the Twins will approach it which is to offer the QO and probably low-ball their FA offer as they tend to do with every FA pitcher.  Probably still most likely that he'll be playing somewhere else next year.

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Yeah any thought of trading him now for a good return seems out of the question.  Not that Twins would have traded him anyway but I think that statement is the nail in the coffin. Also might not for sure get  comp pick either. 

Honestly I don't think he was all that serious.  He is setup  to make more in FA than he did all the years before I don't see him walking away from that.  Still he said it for a reason so there is a chance he just walks away.

 

Anyone trading for Sonny Gray at the deadline knows full well he's an impending FA.  Gray saying he might retire does not impact his trade value one bit.

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

What FA pitcher other than Berrios would you even have wanted to keep (note: they extended the guy they traded Arraez for, so no idea what you are saying).

Low-balling is I guess a pejorative way of putting it, but I'm really just describing how they operate 

Aside from Koufax, who suffered enormous pain and received numerous regular cortisone injections which would never be the practice today, I can't think of any pitcher retiring in their prime. The money is generational and Sonny Gray will be a free agent for the first time in his career. Gray will draw a ton of interest this offseason and there may be quite a bit of interest from teams right now just as a rental.

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That family thing, for me, was huge in my decision making about career....so I get that totally. 

Agreed about the family and enjoying time. But there's probably at least 40 million reasons he'll play a few more years 

I get what he's saying.

Dear Falvine - TRADE. HIM. NOW.... get something in return.  He's already made some statements that indicate he questions how things are being run, now he's talking about possible retirement.  He's a FA at the end of the season and you are NOT getting him back next year unless you drop some insane cash on him.  And lets be honest - your last couple of big-splash contracts haven't exactly worked out as you have hoped they would.

1 hour ago, Dman said:

It does if they plan to re-sign him.  The Twins would want more than normal for Gray as a rental as if he signs a deal over 50M then they get a first round comp pick.  A team would be less inclined to part with a likely top 100 prospect if he plans to retire.  They could still do it but I think the odds would be much lower.

Planning to retire/being eligible for FA are essentially the same thing in the eyes of a team trading for talent at the deadline.  There is no team that would trade for him with the plan to re-sign him.  To emphasize that point--can you think of a single player traded at the deadline before they were set to become a FA that signed an extension with the acquiring team rather than hit FA?  I can't, and I bet you can't either.  Therefore, no one trading for Gray is turned off by his musings about retirement, since it's completely irrelevant to the remainder of this year, which is the only span of time the acquiring team is interested in.

Y'all still believe everything that comes out this guy's mouth?

12 minutes ago, Dman said:

Well I can name one for sure and bet there are others.  The Twins traded Escobar to Arizona for a pretty high level pitcher they didn't want to give up in Duran.  Have to believe before pulling the trigger they had numbers in place to resign him in the offseason and they did jus that. Other wise they probably wouldn't have included Duran in the deal for a rental.

Exception that proves the rule--you can only name one example?  Also, Duran was not exactly high level in the middle of 2017; He was 19, had yet to pitch more than 64 innings in a season, and had a 4.24 ERA (4.98 FIP, 4.53 xFIP) with less than 6.5 k/9 in low A.  Intriguing piece to be sure, but he was not a top 100 prospect, or anywhere close to it.

3 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah any thought of trading him now for a good return seems out of the question.  Not that Twins would have traded him anyway but I think that statement is the nail in the coffin. Also might not for sure get  comp pick either. 

Honestly I don't think he was all that serious.  He is setup  to make more in FA than he did all the years before I don't see him walking away from that.  Still he said it for a reason so there is a chance he just walks away.

 

Why?

He's a rental anyway.  A team that wanted him for this year wouldn't be worried about retirement.

Just might reduce the return if a team who traded for him thought it gave them an inside chance at signing him.