3 Free-Agent Landmines Twins Need to Avoid This Offseason

[Matthew Taylor]

Activity in MLB free agency is expected to pick up considerably this week, with a flurry of moves coming before MLB reaches its December 2 lockout deadline. As teams begin addressing their biggest roster needs, the Minnesota Twins will have plenty of decisions to make about which players are worth pursuing and which contracts carry too much risk.

There are always players who look like attractive additions on the surface but could turn into financial burdens before their contracts are finished. The Twins have experienced this firsthand in recent years, with deals for Carlos Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Victor Caratini—each of which has come with its own set of challenges. While those contracts aren't identical, they serve as reminders of how quickly a free-agent signing can go from an exciting addition to a big mistake.

With that in mind, let's look at three landmines the Twins should steer clear of this offseason. This isn't a list of unrealistic targets or superstars Minnesota has no chance of signing. Instead, these are players the Twins could realistically pursue, but whose projected contracts carry significant long-term risk. I'm also limiting the list to players expected to receive multi-year deals. A one-year contract might not work out, but a one-year contract is never truly a bad deal. All contract projections discussed are based on predictions from MLB Trade Rumors.

Brandon Lowe, 2B
Contract prediction: 3 years, $69 million
The Twins pursuing a second baseman in free agency wouldn't be a bad idea. One potential roster construction would involve moving on from Royce Lewis, shifting Kody Clemens over to handle first base, and bringing in an established second baseman. There are a few players at the position who would make sense, but Brandon Lowe is one option I would prefer the Twins avoid.

Lowe has plenty of power in his bat, but there are some concerning underlying numbers that make his projected contract difficult to justify. He strikes out nearly 29% of the time while walking less than 10% of the time. Those numbers create some volatility in his offensive production, particularly as he gets older and loses some of the power that makes him such an intriguing hitter.

The long-time Rays utility man will turn 33 next season, meaning a three-year contract would keep him under team control past his 35th birthday. An average annual value of $23 million is a significant commitment for a player whose offensive profile already carries some downside. Lowe could certainly provide an exciting middle-of-the-order bat, but the Twins aren't in a position to take that kind of financial risk.

There's another complication, too. Lowe received a qualifying offer, meaning the Twins would have to surrender draft pick compensation to sign him. Giving up a draft pick while committing $69 million to an aging second baseman with a high strikeout rate isn't the kind of investment Minnesota should be making.

David Bednar, RP
Contract prediction: 4 years, $68 million
The Twins haven't signed a relief pitcher to a multi-year free agent contract in nearly a decade. Given the state of their bullpen heading into 2027, there's a case to be made for changing that approach. However, that doesn't mean Minnesota should throw crazy amounts of money around when pursuing established relievers, especially when the contract could extend well into a pitcher's mid-30s.

David Bednar is one of the most talented relievers available and would give the Twins a significant upgrade at the back end of their bullpen. He has the stuff and experience to handle high-leverage situations, and adding someone of his caliber would address one of Minnesota's biggest roster weaknesses. The problem is the projected contract. MLB Trade Rumors predicts a four-year deal worth $68 million, which would be a massive commitment for a reliever entering his age-32 season.

Relief pitchers are notoriously difficult to project from year to year. Even some of the best closers in baseball can experience sudden declines in velocity, command, or effectiveness. Committing four years and $68 million to a reliever is always a gamble, but doing so with a pitcher in his early 30s makes the final years of that deal particularly concerning. The Twins would essentially be betting that Bednar can remain an elite bullpen option well into his mid-30s.

Like Lowe, Bednar also received a qualifying offer, meaning Minnesota would have to surrender a draft pick to bring him aboard. That's another significant cost attached to an already-risky contract. Bednar would probably make the Twins better in the short term, but the downside of this deal is difficult to ignore. The Twins need bullpen help, but they don't need to create another expensive roster problem in the process.

Ryan Jeffers, C
Contract prediction: 4 years, $75 million
This one might be controversial, because Ryan Jeffers is beloved within Twins Territory. The Twins extended a qualifying offer to their veteran catcher, giving him the opportunity to return on a one-year deal worth $23.15 million. However, there's also the possibility that Jeffers declines the offer and the two sides work toward a longer-term agreement.

I'm not sure that would be a good outcome for Minnesota. Jeffers has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the American League, and his bat is certainly valuable at a position where good offense is difficult to find. However, there are reasons why the Twins' contracts with Vázquez and Caratini became problematic. Catchers are particularly difficult to project.

Jeffers will turn 30 next season, and a four-year contract would keep him in Minnesota as Father Time sinks his claws into him. The physical demands of catching take a toll, and there is no guarantee Jeffers will be able to handle that workload throughout the life of the contract—especially since he's never withstood a full-time backstop's workload, to date. If he eventually has to move to first base or become a designated hitter, his offensive production would need to stay extremely strong to justify the investment.

At a projected $18.75 million annually, that's a difficult proposition. Jeffers is a good offensive catcher, but paying nearly $19 million per season for a player who might eventually need to move away from the position doesn't make much sense for a team with Minnesota's financial limitations. The one-year qualifying offer is a different conversation, but committing four years and $75 million would be a risk I would rather the Twins avoid.

The Twins have plenty of work to do this offseason, and there are legitimate opportunities to improve the roster through free agency. Lowe, Bednar, and Jeffers are all talented players who could help the Twins in the short term. That doesn't mean their projected contracts are worthwhile investments. The Twins have already seen how quickly deals for players like Vázquez and Caratini can become difficult to move on from. Avoiding the next version of those contracts should be just as important as finding the next impact addition.

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Are there other free agent landmines the Twins should avoid this offseason? Would you be comfortable with any of these projected contracts? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

The issue with all three of these is the length of the contracts and whether the players involved will “age out” of their production.  While that is always the risk, it’s one that will always be true to a certain extent with any free agent signing.  As far as these players go, I think Lowe is just old and I’m not sure second base is the position we really want to fill, while Bednar just plain old costs too much for a reliever on this size of payroll. However, given the scarcity of available quality catchers both in free agency and in the Twins’ system, a three year deal for Jeffers could make a lot of sense.  It would be long enough to bridge to the young talent (hopefully) and would keep his bat - that is less likely to age as quickly as the catchers glove — around as a potential DH or 1B in the last year of his contract, all without tying up the payroll too long term.  

[DJL44]

I don’t want to pay for Jake Bauers career year. 

[MackMan]

46 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The issue with all three of these is the length of the contracts and whether the players involved will “age out” of their production.  While that is always the risk, it’s one that will always be true to a certain extent with any free agent signing.  As far as these players go, I think Lowe is just old and I’m not sure second base is the position we really want to fill, while Bednar just plain old costs too much for a reliever on this size of payroll. However, given the scarcity of available quality catchers both in free agency and in the Twins’ system, a three year deal for Jeffers could make a lot of sense.  It would be long enough to bridge to the young talent (hopefully) and would keep his bat - that is less likely to age as quickly as the catchers glove — around as a potential DH or 1B in the last year of his contract, all without tying up the payroll too long term.  

I think you've said it best. Right now the Twins are in that awkward phase where we have prospects graduating to the major league team because of all the hitters that were drafted under Falvey-Levine. And a lot of these players are hitting their free agency years in their early-mid 30's and it doesn't make sense to pay a player for his past results knowing that he'll probably take a step back for the duration of the contract agreement. 

You don't want to sign an expensive guy who is going to underperform (based on previous statistics) just to block a younger guy who costs SIGNIFICANTLY less and needs to see ML pitching.

[Trov]

I would be shocked if Bednar gets 4 years in a contract.  He is 32 and pen guys are so volatile there are very few pen guys that get that long of deal and many times the teams get burned quickly. 

[Linus]

These are the dynamics of shopping in the free agency world. There are all kinds of potential pitfalls as very few free agents have no warts. Age is always a factor as most free agents are older and most contracts will include years where production is diminished. Any free agent that is younger or has no warts will be the property of a big market team in short order. If the Twins choose to buy in the free agent marketplace for quality players there will always be risks.  If those risks are not acceptable then they simply need to sit out free agency. This would actually be the property strategy if they would simply commit to a soft rebuild and go with their prospects. Most likely is they will continue their past strategy of trying to solidify their floor with low cost vets that get passed over by most clubs. I view this as the least effective strategy. 

[mluebker]

Unless they can find a catcher as good as Jeffers for less money, they’d be fools not to try to sign him for three years. Anything else is going to be a downgrade.

[Nashvilletwin]

Signing Jeffers to a four year deal with the expectation that he will catch those four years has never been the suggestion/plan.  To imply that is farcical.  No one - absolutely no one - with any knowledge of the Twins organization would ever think that.

Signing Jeffers to a three/four year deal under which he a) catches for a lockout shortened stub year in the first year b) catches the second year as Lackey approaches and c) plays 1B or DH the last one or two years is very logical/sensible.

Also, famous last words, but let us all know when he signs any contract with the Yankees, etc. for $4/$75MM. Personally, I have the under on that.

[Whammy]

Brandon Lowe's K% and BB% in 2026 were basically at his career averages. As was his OPS+.

His K% ticked up a little from 2025, but his BB% ticked up more. What I see is a dude who has had remarkable year-over-year consistency. Someone who has been strongly above-average basically every year of his career.

I don't see anything in his numbers that suggests there's any more risk with him that any other 32 year old. 

[old nurse]

Different sites, different numbers  it does change perspective of what to avoid 

[mikelink45]

Free agency comes down to overpaying for declining years based on the quality of production before FA.  I prefer trades and developing young players. 

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Whammy said:

Brandon Lowe's K% and BB% in 2026 were basically at his career averages. As was his OPS+.

His K% ticked up a little from 2025, but his BB% ticked up more. What I see is a dude who has had remarkable year-over-year consistency. Someone who has been strongly above-average basically every year of his career.

I don't see anything in his numbers that suggests there's any more risk with him that any other 32 year old. 

His defense was also top notch. He has a long way to decline before he’s unplayable.

[DJL44]

The Twins have three potential ways to turn their below average roster into a contender.

1) Pay big bucks for free agents to win now

2) Trade prospects for veterans to win now

3) Trade veterans for prospects to win later

They don’t seem to want to do any of those, so expect 75-80 win seasons in perpetuity.

[Whammy]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His defense was also top notch. He has a long way to decline before he’s unplayable.

I'm hesitant to trust that too much because I've been pretty consistently hesitant to buy into Arraez's improved defensive numbers. It feels like it would be inconsistent of me to be like "and look at Lowe's awesome 2026 dWAR at 2B!!!!"

[Andy MacPhail]

Vladimir Guerreira, when approached during a slump after his contract, stated the truth & shocked everyone; "I'm not paid for what I do, I get paid for what I did". Salaries are based on past stats, so he figured that this was all it was about. There are no guarantees, Twins got burned many times with long term FA contracts, especially lately. IMO, long term FA contracts are a bad crap shoot. For years, I've advocated to trade from our surplus (mainly LH corner fielders), to fill out our holes, instead of FA. FA should be a last resort, not our principal solution.

[Rufus]

Why sign any free agent?  For the most part free agents are in their 30's and probably reaching their declining years.  When building a team young prospects  are the answer.  When you have a team that is on the brink of success (the Vikings) that is the time when adding one or two key pieces to put a team over the top.  Other than that go with the Brewers, Rays approach.  Make smart trades, trade players that are nearing free agency,  players that are having a great season but obviously playing over their heads  for promising young prospects.  Just going out and throwing money around without a solid plan (the Mets) doesn't work.

 

[Historyking88]

Bednar is one of the best closers in baseball. He instantly transforms your bullpen to at least good. And who cares about the comp pick when you will get a comp pick for Jeffers signing elsewhere which effectively negates that entire argument. Bednar also has several good prime years left and has been healthy for the majority of his career. So again tell me why they shouldn’t sign him? 

[sweetmusicviola16]

So TD will promote signing JP Crawford to good money at this stage of his career but will say no to Lowe. Promoting the Twins way all of the way.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins greatest risk they can possibly take is to continue to roll it back with the same basic group and fill the roster openings with a couple of plaid signings. What was the saying? Did anyone hear something about go big?

There are opportunities for trades. A few of these can be simple or they can rock the joint a little bit. Free agents cost money and draft choices. A couple of bullpen arms and a bat are needed. How they add those pieces  .... I don't care. The bat has to own a glove and have some power. Zoll needs to accomplish something substantial before the lockout or the Twins will fade further from the view of sports fans, leaving behind only us few old diehards. That sad number cannot support a franchise.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Signing Jeffers to a four year deal with the expectation that he will catch those four years has never been the suggestion/plan.  To imply that is farcical.  No one - absolutely no one - with any knowledge of the Twins organization would ever think that.

Signing Jeffers to a three/four year deal under which he a) catches for a lockout shortened stub year in the first year b) catches the second year as Lackey approaches and c) plays 1B or DH the last one or two years is very logical/sensible.

Also, famous last words, but let us all know when he signs any contract with the Yankees, etc. for $4/$75MM. Personally, I have the under on that.

It's an interesting risk-reward opportunity with Jeffers. To me, I think I would make that bet: I'm not expecting Lackey to be ready in 2027, even if he gets a cup of coffee at some point. Projecting him to job share in 2028, and be the primary in 2029 isn't unreasonable...but not guaranteed. Having Jeffers on board to start next season, take a lesser catching role (while hopefully still using his bat) starting in 2028 would work out pretty well unless Jeffers has a sudden and steep decline. Might happen, but Jeffers also only has 600 MLB games on those legs and has been pretty healthy overall (the injury this season was a fluke, not related to wear & tear).

I'd sign him to 3/$56M in a heartbeat. 4 for $75M? Gets very interesting, because that last year could be the bad one.

A lot of it comes down to whether you think jeffers can play enough games and still hit enough if he has to play more 1B/DH in the back half of the contract. But his RH bat fits so perfectly in the middle of the twins order it's hard for me to think that bringing him back is a truly bad idea.

[Whammy]

21 minutes ago, Historyking88 said:

Bednar is one of the best closers in baseball. He instantly transforms your bullpen to at least good. And who cares about the comp pick when you will get a comp pick for Jeffers signing elsewhere which effectively negates that entire argument. Bednar also has several good prime years left and has been healthy for the majority of his career. So again tell me why they shouldn’t sign him? 

I'm with you on getting all worked up over losing a 2nd round pick.

Would I prefer to NOT lose a 2nd round pick? Yes. That's what I would prefer, but that's the cost of doing business.

And as you pointed out, we'll likely get a compensatory pick for Jeffers. That pick will almost certainly be a better pick than the pick we would lose for signing a different QO player.

Outgoing: ~50th pick
Incoming ~ 35th pick (depending on Jeffers' final contract amount)

This isn't me necessarily advocating for giving Bednar a big contract, but more pushing back against the idea that losing a draft pick should be some death knell for signing good players.

[gman]

IF you're going to sign a player for 3-4 yeas at 55-70 million, why not just resign Jeffers? Catching will be the biggest hole next year and probably most of 2028. Isn't that what free agency is about, correcting weaknesses. So don't start the off year by creating a big one to start with. By the time 2029 comes around Jeffers would probably be splitting duties with Lackey and he may be on the lighter side of that split. Having Jeffers around in 2028-29 would help Lackey transition to the pros.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I would be 100% fine with signing Bednar.   RP is the one area where you pay up for consistency and age is not as big of a deal.  If you can get a legitimate closer for 15+ million - I think you take that all day long.  

We would then have 2 first round picks and lose our 2nd rounder in this situation I would believe if teams still lose compensation picks in the new cba.   

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, gman said:

IF you're going to sign a player for 3-4 yeas at 55-70 million, why not just resign Jeffers? Catching will be the biggest hole next year and probably most of 2028. Isn't that what free agency is about, correcting weaknesses. So don't start the off year by creating a big one to start with. By the time 2029 comes around Jeffers would probably be splitting duties with Lackey and he may be on the lighter side of that split. Having Jeffers around in 2028-29 would help Lackey transition to the pros.

There have been so many articles on Jeffers. To your question, the response by comments submitted on Twins Daily can be broke down in to two areas. One is sign Jeffers, move him to DH/1B when Lackey arrives. The other is a combination of a) Jeffers will cost the Twins a shot at signing a star bullpen arm or bat; b) Jeffers is a good hitter but not a catcher or a first baseman or a good enough bat to just DH, plus the Twins may want to hold the DH spot open and the Twins need to improve their defense. Those are the two positions.

[MackMan]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I would be 100% fine with signing Bednar.   RP is the one area where you pay up for consistency and age is not as big of a deal.  If you can get a legitimate closer for 15+ million - I think you take that all day long.  

We would then have 2 first round picks and lose our 2nd rounder in this situation I would believe if teams still lose compensation picks in the new cba.   

I'm fairly positive if anything happens with this, it would supercede the new CBA as the QO was made prior to the current expiring. Kinda like the "potential" of removing deferred contracts in the new CBA. All those currently in place stay where they  are, but no new ones can be made. 

[Whammy]

2 minutes ago, MackMan said:

I'm fairly positive if anything happens with this, it would supercede the new CBA as the QO was made prior to the current expiring. Kinda like the "potential" of removing deferred contracts in the new CBA. All those currently in place stay where they  are, but no new ones can be made. 

I'm working under the assumption that everything will work exactly like it does now, for the 2027 season.... No matter if the new CBA makes massive changes or not. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Historyking88 said:

Bednar is one of the best closers in baseball. He instantly transforms your bullpen to at least good. And who cares about the comp pick when you will get a comp pick for Jeffers signing elsewhere which effectively negates that entire argument. Bednar also has several good prime years left and has been healthy for the majority of his career. So again tell me why they shouldn’t sign him? 

sign Bednar and sign Jeffers.   Love the comp pick and its still a win.

[Whammy]

Purely from a draft bonus pool perspective, I think getting the pick for Jeffers around #35, would be about a push compared to if we signed TWO qualifying offer players and lost our 50th pick (2nd round) and 80th pick (3rd round)

[nicksaviking]

Agree about the landmines. And outside of Tarik Skubal, the entirety of free agency this year looks to be full of landmines.

So honestly, my approach would be to grab one big land mine, maybe two, so you don't commit to 4 or so lesser landmines. One of the guys listed above flaming out still only causes ONE roster issue. Teams can recover from a bad contract, see Christian Yelich. It's multiple bad contracts that kill you, see the Padres.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's an interesting risk-reward opportunity with Jeffers. To me, I think I would make that bet: I'm not expecting Lackey to be ready in 2027, even if he gets a cup of coffee at some point. Projecting him to job share in 2028, and be the primary in 2029 isn't unreasonable...but not guaranteed. Having Jeffers on board to start next season, take a lesser catching role (while hopefully still using his bat) starting in 2028 would work out pretty well unless Jeffers has a sudden and steep decline. Might happen, but Jeffers also only has 600 MLB games on those legs and has been pretty healthy overall (the injury this season was a fluke, not related to wear & tear).

I'd sign him to 3/$56M in a heartbeat. 4 for $75M? Gets very interesting, because that last year could be the bad one.

A lot of it comes down to whether you think jeffers can play enough games and still hit enough if he has to play more 1B/DH in the back half of the contract. But his RH bat fits so perfectly in the middle of the twins order it's hard for me to think that bringing him back is a truly bad idea.

Agree on Lackey.  He gets a cup of coffee next year, begins to develop as a pro in 2028 sharing duties with Jeffers (and being tutored by Jeffers) as C2 for a good part of the year, and becomes an above average primary C (60%+ games caught) in 2029.  At which point Jeffers is playing 1B and DH and one of the other young catchers is C2 behind Lackey.

That is the most realistic “best case” scenario.

Re-signing Jeffers is priority #1.  It solves our C issues for the next several years and, one we get Caratini off the books after next season, the weighted average cost of our catching solution isn’t all that bad with the marginally expensive Jeffers and the dirt cheap Lackey.