The Rays-Brewers World Series Isn't an Excuse for Twins to Spend Less Money

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are headed to the World Series, and neither team needed a top-10 payroll to get there. Milwaukee entered the 2026 season with the 19th-highest Opening Day payroll in baseball, while Tampa Bay ranked 26th. For the Minnesota Twins, it might be tempting to look at this matchup and conclude that payroll isn't as important as people think. If these smaller-market organizations can compete for a championship without spending big, why can't the Twins?

A well-run organization can overcome financial limitations, but that doesn't mean payroll is unimportant. Three teams in the bottom 11 of Opening Day payrolls reached the League Championship Series this year, and Milwaukee made an especially convincing statement by sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose payroll was nearly twice as large as the Brewers'. Those are impressive accomplishments, but they don't change what decades of baseball history have shown us.

Teams with top-10 payrolls have won 20 of the last 28 World Series titles. MLB.com has also found that teams in the upper half of spending are roughly 1.7 times more likely to reach the playoffs; three times more likely to reach the League Championship Series; and six times more likely to reach the World Series than teams in the bottom half. Money doesn't guarantee success, but it significantly improves a team's chances of achieving it.

The Brewers and Rays are exceptions to that rule. Both organizations have built impressive systems for identifying talent, developing players and replacing departing contributors. They're among the best-run organizations in baseball, and their success demonstrates how much a smart front office can accomplish despite financial limitations. Even then, imagine what they could do with more money to retain their best players and supplement their young talent.

That's where the comparison becomes problematic for the Twins. Minnesota hasn't demonstrated the same ability to consistently overcome its limitations. Front-office turnover, managerial changes, coaching turnover and too many prospect flameouts have made it difficult to trust that the organization can consistently make the right decisions. The Twins need to improve their scouting, player development and roster construction, but they also need to give themselves more financial flexibility. When an organization hasn't shown it can consistently get the most out of its existing resources, the answer shouldn't be to provide even fewer resources and hope for better results.

This brings us to the upcoming offseason. With labor negotiations potentially bringing a salary floor, a salary cap or other changes to baseball's economic structure, we don't know exactly what the financial landscape will look like. What we do know is that the Twins need a payroll closer to the middle of the league than the bottom. They don't necessarily need to spend like the Dodgers, but they need more flexibility to retain their best players and address roster weaknesses, without relying on every prospect and every internal decision to work out perfectly.

In a 2024 interview with WCCO, Joe Pohlad pointed to the Rays as an example of why the Twins didn't need to spend big to compete. Tampa Bay has shown that an organization could win without making major investments in free agency, and the Twins believed they could follow a similar model. Now, with the Rays in the World Series alongside Milwaukee, it's easy to see how ownership could use this year's results to justify keeping payroll down. But the Rays' success doesn't mean the Twins can afford to spend less. Tampa Bay has built an organization capable of consistently overcoming its financial limitations, something Minnesota hasn't proven it can do. Tom Pohlad shouldn't mistake the success of two exceptionally well-run organizations for evidence that payroll doesn't matter.

I hope the biggest takeaway from this World Series, for Tom Pohlad and the Twins' front office, isn't that payroll doesn't matter. It absolutely does. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have earned their place on baseball's biggest stage, but their success shouldn't become another justification for Minnesota to spend less. The Twins need to make better decisions, and they need to give themselves more resources to work with. Until they prove they can consistently build and sustain a contender, spending more on the major-league roster is one of the clearest ways to improve their chances.

---

Do you agree? Should the Twins view the Brewers and Rays as proof that a low payroll can work, or should this World Series matchup reinforce the need for Minnesota to spend more? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

View full article

[Nashvilletwin]

Yes, this World Series is not an excuse for the Twins to spend more money.

Rather, it’s an epiphany for the Twins to pull their heads out of their rear ends and take note of how to actually build a contender.

All the pieces are right in front of this organization at this very moment.  Yes, they have squandered a few (and notable) opportunities to make things a lot easier. But a contending team is right in front of the Twins faces if they will just jettison their short-term delusions and build for the future like their small/mid-market compatriots the Brewers and Rays.

It’s actually not that hard.  We’ve done it before.  The White Sox are in the midst of doing it.  The Royals did it not too long ago.  So did the Astros. The Brewers and the Rays are the masters.

TTT and JZ - you just need to smarten up and commit.  You will have your winner, the fans will love you,  attendance will go up, JZ will keep his job, and TTT can sell the team for a lot more money. It’s not rocket science. 

[shimrod]

The Twins have never needed an excuse to not spend. 

[ashbury]

Yes, it's really not complicated. 

• Make player evaluations as well as they do. 
• Make roster decisions as well as they do. 
• Develop as well as they do. 
• Be willing to spend more than they can (TB for sure, I don't know about Milwaukee's financial capacity) when opportunity presents itself.

No one is saying it's easy.

 

 

[MeleMouth]

A basic probability proof is based on a case where you and a friend are gambling over $100 split between you 51:49 and the game is otherwise fair.

If you play 20 times, the player who starts with $51 will win the $100 60% of the time.

If you play 100 times, the player who starts with $51 will win the $100 88% of the time.

If you play 100 times, the player who starts with $51 will win the $100 98% of the time.

Having more money improves the odds of victory, especially the more you play.

Baseball isn't an otherwise fair game, because being smarter can provide advantages. The Twins, unfortunately, in addition to having less money have also consistently been less smart than several other teams. Playing in a weak division that enabled them to make the playoffs a few teams sheltered their lack of smartness. But now Detroit and even the ChiSox appear to be catching onto the strategies used by CLE/TBR/MLW and others, so the challenges facing the Twins are even greater. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm more concerned with the Twins spending smarter money than more money. For example, the team should be focused on developing their OWN veteran leaders so instead of having to pay for that trait in free agency, they can instead solely focus on the baseball talent, and the position they may fit best. Another issue; three average to below-average free agents, are not a better use of money than one GOOD free agent. The average to below-average free agents too often don't turn out to be any better than the internal options, or even the options that float around on waivers. There are only 26 roster spots, and the Twins tendency to add low level free agents typically means that players with options are left off the roster, even if they are better players, have more upside or are better positional fits than the veteran leaders the team just paid.

But let's also not forget that the Twins call to spend more money comes at a time when it is widely expected that there will be a salary floor. Therefore, if the Twins have to spend money, that means the Brewers and Rays are going to have to spend even MORE money than the Twins. So, now not only will the Twins have to battle what are typically the more desirable larger market cities for free agents, but now they'll have to battle peer cities that are already championship contenders.

[shimrod]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Another issue; three average to below-average free agents, are not a better use of money than one GOOD free agent.

Bingo. The only times the Twins have looked to add above average talent in FA have been damaged goods. The toxic Donaldson and brittle Correia. Perceived bargains. 

The Twins have on several occasions paid market price for their own high end talent. Puckett and Mauer are examples. Spending to maintain talent is better than letting it walk but it doesn't make the team better, just keeps it from getting worse. 

[LastOnePicked]

You can be a rich team or you can be a smart team. Additional spending can certainly cover up a few gaps. But it's more fun to watch some of the smartest teams in baseball take center stage.

I can't figure out why the Twins, who go out of their way to remind fans that they're not a rich team, seem to have no interest in instead being a smart team. They seem to just wait for good things to happen and are totally surprised when they don't.

They missed their chance last offseason to fully reload. It's what a smart team would have done. Now, if they want to win, they'll need to act like a rich team this offseason.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

You can be a rich team or you can be a smart team. 

The Dodgers:

[weitz41]

A little different thought on this that may or may not fly..

Your competition plays a part in this as well. Playing in a division that has the Yankees, Red Sox for the Rays and the Cub and Cardinals for the Brewers. That old saying beat the best to be the best...or something like that.

Don't get me wrong of course you need to be good to great at the things being mentioned and yes payroll does make a difference. Just a little different tid bit is all

[MackMan]

I was wondering when this topic was going to come up. It is definitely interesting seeing 2 small market teams in the WS as compared to powerhouses like the Dodgers or Yankees. I for one really enjoy seeing this. It is actually exciting for the game of baseball. 

But I will agree with a lot of people that it isn't spending money that wins you games. It's spending it wisely is how it counts. Like brought up above. It doesn't make sense to fill the BP with 3-5 league minimum players when we could get the same result with in-house options and 1 or 2 established players. The same can be said for the position players. Stop signing these league minimum utility guys and start looking at internal options help promote from within and let these players know that "we are willing to take a flyer on you, you just have to show it."

Some positions need to be purchased, especially if you don't have anyone there or anyone coming up in the future (I'm looking at you 1st Base). Now I'm not saying we need to go out and get someone for Vlad Jr type money, but someone for 2-4 years of quality playtime who has a good past to reference back to. On top of that, I believe the days of having a set DH are over. The days of someone like Big Papi or Nelson Cruz are gone (at least for the Twins) because not every team have have a Kyle Schwarber type player who has no use in the field but is there to do one thing. HIT DINGERS. We have a plethora of MLB ready players and a back log of playing time for those players. We need to be filling the lineup with the players who we think are going to be best served in that spot for that particular day/series/week/month/year.

[Trov]

This WS shows that money is not "needed" to win, but as we know it gives teams a better chance.  What teams like Brews, Ray, and Cleveland have shown is if you are not going to spend, you need to know to reload well, and move pieces when needed to fill holes.  Hitting on draft and international signings are important too. 

The problem with a mid-market team spending, is they cannot just spend to spend, like the big boys, because if you spend poorly, then you have to fight the bad contract you signed.  Twins have 2 recent examples of that, CC and Donaldson.  Both were outside the norm FA signings by the Twins that shocked people.  However, both made it that you were tied to that player, unless you gave away assets to have another team take him off your hands because the contract became a bad contract. 

Big teams, can afford to miss on a bad contract, but they still need to hit on them too, and have a farm system to trade from, or bring up guys.  Yes, the Dodgers spend a ton, but they also have a good system to use to trade for top end guys, and resign them, but also when a contract does not work out, they still have guys they can count on to come up.  Look at Angels for years they had two of the best in the league, and would go out and spend big.  However, they did not spend smart.  They would just go out and get the top name on the market and had terrible contracts on vets that were well overpaid because they did not spend smart. 

Rays and Brewers will always trade guys away before they lose value, and would rather trade a year early than late.  They will sign guys to long term deals early in team control to buy out the most important years of FA, the first 1 to 3. They take risk, but they know how to keep reloading their team, knowing not all prospects will be hits.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes, this World Series is not an excuse for the Twins to spend more money.

Rather, it’s an epiphany for the Twins to pull their heads out of their rear ends and take note of how to actually build a contender.

All the pieces are right in front of this organization at this very moment.  Yes, they have squandered a few (and notable) opportunities to make things a lot easier. But a contending team is right in front of the Twins faces if they will just jettison their short-term delusions and build for the future like their small/mid-market compatriots the Brewers and Rays.

It’s actually not that hard.  We’ve done it before.  The White Sox are in the midst of doing it.  The Royals did it not too long ago.  So did the Astros. The Brewers and the Rays are the masters.

TTT and JZ - you just need to smarten up and commit.  You will have your winner, the fans will love you,  attendance will go up, JZ will keep his job, and TTT can sell the team for a lot more money. It’s not rocket science. 

Offloading 400mil of commercial debt onto the team was a very low thing to do. Typical Pohlads.

[Andy MacPhail]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

Yes, it's really not complicated. 

• Make player evaluations as well as they do. 
• Make roster decisions as well as they do. 
• Develop as well as they do. 
• Be willing to spend more than they can (TB for sure, I don't know about Milwaukee's financial capacity) when opportunity presents itself.

No one is saying it's easy.

If Twins need to spend money they should do it wisely. But when we look at MIL, TB, or CLE we need to take a deep look at what we've done wrong & what they have done right, not about money. IMO, we need to really shake up our mindsets & philosophy & copy theirs & do it better. It not so much what they do but more how they do it. I've been advocating that for years, especially MIL. Like Ash said, it won't be easy

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Brewers payroll was also $154m this year, still in the average echelon, $40+ million higher than the Twins and the Twins included 10m to Correa and 20m to Lopez. The Twins put on the field an $80m team, and it showed.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Brewers payroll was also $154m this year, still in the average echelon, $40+ million higher than the Twins and the Twins included 10m to Correa and 20m to Lopez. The Twins put on the field an $80m team, and it showed.

Brewers Payroll From Spotrac.  More than 1/3 of their payroll went to the injured list or dead money.  Our problems were deeper than Lopez going down and paying $10M of Correa's salary for Houston.

[TNtwins85]

The Brewers are what the Twins should be. Middle of the league spending. Draft and develop very well. They don’t develop stars out of every player but take a players strengths and make the most of them. When a star comes along they lock him up. If a star player isn’t signed to a long term deal you trade him for future talent then make that talent count by developing their strengths. Perform the basics to the tenth degree. Rinse and repeat year in year out. Spending and spending smart are two different things. The Twins are caught in the middle right now but they’ve brought in a solid position player core. They need to lock some of those guys up now so you can draft and develop other areas. They need a slugger type at 1B and bring in more pitching talent. If some of your current talent isn’t part of your future core you need to flip those guys. I don’t think it’s a lock you get a cap/floor but even if you do the same things will always ring true in every sport in that young talent will always be the path to winning. Not buying old talent. Regardless of some magic bean of a cap/floor system.

[Riverbrian]

On 10/21/2026 at 12:33 PM, Matthew Taylor said:

MLB.com has also found that teams in the upper half of spending are roughly 1.7 times more likely to reach the playoffs; three times more likely to reach the League Championship Series; and six times more likely to reach the World Series than teams in the bottom half. Money doesn't guarantee success, but it significantly improves a team's chances of achieving it.

Frankly Scarlett, I could give a damn weather the Twins spend 80 million or 180 million dollars. Talent is what matters and the Twins routinely don't get enough talent for who they spend dollars on... meanwhile they routinely fail to develop talent at a lower price point. 

Let's provide some food for thought on the numbers you provide from MLB.com. Because they sound awfully impressive on the surface and there are plenty of people ready to gobble them up. 

1. It's probably safe to assume that the "Upper Half" is #1 through #15 - Lower Half would be 16-30. 50% above - 50% below. Can we please recognize the enormous differences between Seattle's #16 Payroll of 170 Million and #30 Cleveland's' 74 Million. I would also like everyone to recognize the difference between #1 Mets payroll at 347 Million and and the 182 Million spent by the #15 ranked Angels. I'm not sure that cutting the rankings in half is a good placement of the arbitrary line to prove the point. 

2. 12 teams make the playoffs. 1.7 Times more likely is 7.56 out of 12 playoff teams. So 7 teams in the top half and 5 teams in the bottom half. The horribly placed arbitrary line that creates 15 teams on each side results in ONE EXTRA MONEY TEAM making the playoffs (every other year). One extra top 15 team doesn't sound as impressive as 1.7 times more likely. That's what top half money bought ya. One extra team. Two extra teams every other year. 

3. If you want to make the money point. It's there to be made. Move that arbitrary line to a more sensible location. Make it TOP TEN. The 33% of teams that are in the top 10 and compare the 33% to the 67% that are not and you see the disparity. Teams #11 through #15 are typically closer to middle class and will drag your numbers down to 1.7% and this weakens the money point. The TOP TEN money... lowers the percentage to 33% elite spenders but doesn't significantly lower the overall number of playoff teams. The truly elite level spenders are 2.6% more likely. The 33% elite will take up 57% of the playoff spots compared to 63% for the top 15. If you want to make the money point... Let's make the money point. Let's talk about the 200 million necessary to play in that real estate. 

4. The Twins can't play at that level. I repeat... the Twins can't play at that level. Therefore... The Twins WON'T play at that level no matter how many encouraging words are uttered publicly by Tom Pohlad.  The Twins can't do what the Phillies are doing... there is a huge difference between signing Bryce Harper and signing Josh Bell who is only available because Philadelphia doesn't want him. 

5. Thankfully, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa have done a nice job showing them how to do it and articles like this can be very misleading. 

6. Not trading Joe Ryan last off-season was a mistake. Not trading Joe Ryan last off season was ignoring the above 5 points. Not trading Joe Ryan was thinking that Bell and Caratini was the accumulation of enough talent to overcome a team struggling to produce young talent with a gutted bullpen that was going to be rebuilt on the fly starting at GROUND ZERO on OPENING DAY! 

7. Develop or Die. Search for talent. Young talent is talent and it's available to everybody. Give development opportunity to those who have service time to become better. Don't give development opportunity to those who will not be back next year. Do not commit to average and pretend like average or below average is irreplaceable.  Develop talent and trade for talent because YOU CAN"T AFFORD TO BUY IT DEVELOPED BY OTHER TEAMS. This is why not trading Joe Ryan last off-season was a big mistake. 

8. Don't waste roster spaces on role players, Don't strip mine your prospects for parts. If the team decides to strip mine Emma and Jenkins for parts and they will because they have shown no indication of stopping the practice. If that is how they are going to move forward with our critical young prospects. Our only long term hope will be a leveling of the financial playing field in a future CBA because the Twins will be truly trying to compete with the Yankee and Phillies on their terms and they CAN'T DO THAT. Because Bell is not Harper. 

9. Thankfully Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa have been showing everyone a way to do what needs to be done. 

 

 

10. You do sum it up nicely with the following sentence.

 

On 10/21/2026 at 12:33 PM, Matthew Taylor said:

A well-run organization can overcome financial limitations

 

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes, this World Series is not an excuse for the Twins to spend more money.

Rather, it’s an epiphany for the Twins to pull their heads out of their rear ends and take note of how to actually build a contender.

All the pieces are right in front of this organization at this very moment.  Yes, they have squandered a few (and notable) opportunities to make things a lot easier. But a contending team is right in front of the Twins faces if they will just jettison their short-term delusions and build for the future like their small/mid-market compatriots the Brewers and Rays.

It’s actually not that hard.  We’ve done it before.  The White Sox are in the midst of doing it.  The Royals did it not too long ago.  So did the Astros. The Brewers and the Rays are the masters.

TTT and JZ - you just need to smarten up and commit.  You will have your winner, the fans will love you,  attendance will go up, JZ will keep his job, and TTT can sell the team for a lot more money. It’s not rocket science. 

The Royals were good from 2013-2016……….having a decade break on either side of one Title, to me, isn’t a very interesting franchise to follow. Winning the Series is extremely difficult but getting into post season with an opportunity to “get hot” or “get some breaks”, 50-60% of the time is a great team to follow. …….. the Twins aren’t getting to the playoffs with any regularity - that would drive fandom!

Again, shooting for  really bad, to hopefully become pretty good is a questionable approach…… the Astros tanked for at least 3 seasons to get the picks that propelled them. Do not remember them being noted as a frugal franchise but haven’t paid much attention to their spending…….they did take a relatively broken down Correa back for $23M of their money per year.

White Sox had the absolute worst start mckelvey season record in history and consecutive 100 loss seasons……they barely made the playoffs once now and lost to a team they were up on 2-0, headed home. 

The Twins were in the playoffs and competitive in ‘23………. spent $155M. This year, starting the season, payroll was $106M. The $106 included $10M to Correa & $22M to Lopez. They had $74M spent on the field………either number is a telling contrast to the normalcy of 2023.

The biggest difference between Cleveland & Tampa & Milwaukee is that this has been their strategy for a hell of a long time. Twins, mostly due to ownership, have no strategy nor plan. Signing Lopez & Correa (ownership committing) were moves that were a solid step, but then payroll went down, steeply after extending those two. That’s not a plan!! FO people aren’t miracle workers that can change an organization’s approach “whenever”, & get near-term results .

Your comments “it’s not that hard”…….”it’s not rocket science” leads me to believe they should hire you to turn things down the right path.

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

The Brewers are what the Twins should be. Middle of the league spending. Draft and develop very well. They don’t develop stars out of every player but take a players strengths and make the most of them. When a star comes along they lock him up. If a star player isn’t signed to a long term deal you trade him for future talent then make that talent count by developing their strengths. Perform the basics to the tenth degree. Rinse and repeat year in year out. Spending and spending smart are two different things. The Twins are caught in the middle right now but they’ve brought in a solid position player core. They need to lock some of those guys up now so you can draft and develop other areas. They need a slugger type at 1B and bring in more pitching talent. If some of your current talent isn’t part of your future core you need to flip those guys. I don’t think it’s a lock you get a cap/floor but even if you do the same things will always ring true in every sport in that young talent will always be the path to winning. Not buying old talent. Regardless of some magic bean of a cap/floor system.

Exactly! Brewers do have a generational young pitcher they pay $750K ……. nice scouting & great fortune!! They signed Churio to a long-term deal….smart. They have a broken down guy making a lot more money than his teammates & contributions warrant (similar to Buxton) in Yelich.

The Brewers spent nearly $147M on roster salary in 2026. ………. That’s $35-$40M more than the Twins ……… still $10M less than the Twins spend in 2023. IF Twins had $35M more to spend going into the offseason last year, I firmly believe that a couple guys that they would have signed, coupled with a healthy Lopez would have had them at 90 wins……..Lopez health alone cost them a handful of wins. Just “spend normally” and be competitive.

[Nashvilletwin]

21 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The Royals were good from 2013-2016……….having a decade break on either side of one Title, to me, isn’t a very interesting franchise to follow. Winning the Series is extremely difficult but getting into post season with an opportunity to “get hot” or “get some breaks”, 50-60% of the time is a great team to follow. …….. the Twins aren’t getting to the playoffs with any regularity - that would drive fandom!

Again, shooting for  really bad, to hopefully become pretty good is a questionable approach…… the Astros tanked for at least 3 seasons to get the picks that propelled them. Do not remember them being noted as a frugal franchise but haven’t paid much attention to their spending…….they did take a relatively broken down Correa back for $23M of their money per year.

White Sox had the absolute worst start mckelvey season record in history and consecutive 100 loss seasons……they barely made the playoffs once now and lost to a team they were up on 2-0, headed home. 

The Twins were in the playoffs and competitive in ‘23………. spent $155M. This year, starting the season, payroll was $106M. The $106 included $10M to Correa & $22M to Lopez. They had $74M spent on the field………either number is a telling contrast to the normalcy of 2023.

The biggest difference between Cleveland & Tampa & Milwaukee is that this has been their strategy for a hell of a long time. Twins, mostly due to ownership, have no strategy nor plan. Signing Lopez & Correa (ownership committing) were moves that were a solid step, but then payroll went down, steeply after extending those two. That’s not a plan!! FO people aren’t miracle workers that can change an organization’s approach “whenever”, & get near-term results .

Your comments “it’s not that hard”…….”it’s not rocket science” leads me to believe they should hire you to turn things down the right path.

Hahaha, (tongue in cheek) they could do a lot worse and have….

In all seriousness, it’s all about understanding how you can create a competitive advantage given the industry dynamics and your own strengths and weaknesses.    Twins  more recently do not seem to understand that if they truly want to win a championship as a small to mid market, financially constrained team in the current MLB.

They cannot spend their way to a championship.  That is clear.  Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle any given year is also not a strategy.

The best way to for a team like the Twins to create a competitive advantage is to be better at DEVELOPING their own cheaper talent and to be building windows by continually trading expensive talent for cheaper and better future talent when the window is clearly not open.  There really is no other way for the Twins to build a championship team in this environment. And, if this strategy is pursued correctly and continually with commitment, it’s highly probable that the team would truly be competitive more years than not.

Executing that strategy may not be that easy per se.  However, understanding the competitive dynamics of the industry and how one must compete is not that hard (that part is not rocket science). 

[terrydactyls]

19 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

A basic probability proof is based on a case where you and a friend are gambling over $100 split between you 51:49 and the game is otherwise fair.

If you play 20 times, the player who starts with $51 will win the $100 60% of the time.

If you play 100 times, the player who starts with $51 will win the $100 88% of the time.

If you play 100 times, the player who starts with $51 will win the $100 98% of the time.

Having more money improves the odds of victory, especially the more you play.

Baseball isn't an otherwise fair game, because being smarter can provide advantages. The Twins, unfortunately, in addition to having less money have also consistently been less smart than several other teams. Playing in a weak division that enabled them to make the playoffs a few teams sheltered their lack of smartness. But now Detroit and even the ChiSox appear to be catching onto the strategies used by CLE/TBR/MLW and others, so the challenges facing the Twins are even greater. 

Please explain your math.  It doesn't make any sense to me.

[tony&rodney]

The key to winning baseball is talent managed by an emphasis on fundamental play. For some time now the Minnesota faithful have elevated ownership above the front office in importance. Falvey had more money to spend than any of his peers in the AL Central and it fell short. The current front office (led by Zoll?) has their chance to move the club forward and that starts November 1. If the Twins do not complete at least a couple of reasonably big trades and sign at least a couple of free agents we will expect a similar club in 2027. The Twins can hope for strong seasons from their young inexperienced players but relying on the current roster is not a plan. The money spent will be above the beginning of this season but a strong team doesn't call for a nickel above $130 million for their 2027 roster. 

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Hahaha, (tongue in cheek) they could do a lot worse and have….

In all seriousness, it’s all about understanding how you can create a competitive advantage given the industry dynamics and your own strengths and weaknesses.    Twins  more recently do not seem to understand that if they truly want to win a championship as a small to mid market, financially constrained team in the current MLB.

They cannot spend their way to a championship.  That is clear.  Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle any given year is also not a strategy.

The best way to for a team like the Twins to create a competitive advantage is to be better at DEVELOPING their own cheaper talent and to be building windows by continually trading expensive talent for cheaper and better future talent when the window is clearly not open.  There really is no other way for the Twins to build a championship team in this environment. And, if this strategy is pursued correctly and continually with commitment, it’s highly probable that the team would truly be competitive more years than not.

Executing that strategy may not be that easy per se.  However, understanding the competitive dynamics of the industry and how one must compete is not that hard (that part is not rocket science). 

Agreed! My point is if the Ownership doesn’t give parameters on spending & stick to them, at whatever level, the FO (any FO people) cannot create a cohesive plan year upon year. Getting the development to be at a high level is every team’s/organization’s goal. It’s a bit easier to not be great at that element if you have some $$ to spend. There are very few teams that have glaring strengths in drafting & developing……that part, having the Organization talent at the Top & getting it right are the strengths of Tampa - Milwaukee and a few teams that spend freely as well. …….. Milwaukee’s decision makers originated in Tampa…….. Twins just got their pitching coach from Tampa - hopefully, some organizational knowledge will rub off!

[MeleMouth]

28 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Please explain your math.  It doesn't make any sense to me.

If you don't understand why having slightly more money in a fair game would give one player an advantage over the other player or that how the advantage increases as they play more games, I recommend that you look up Gambler's Ruin, because there are much better explanations on the internet than I can give you.

At a very high level, it is proof that having more money gives a sustainable advantage, despite anecdotal evidence of when a player with less money defeated a player with more money.

[killercarewoliva]

20 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes, this World Series is not an excuse for the Twins to spend more money.

Rather, it’s an epiphany for the Twins to pull their heads out of their rear ends and take note of how to actually build a contender.

All the pieces are right in front of this organization at this very moment.  Yes, they have squandered a few (and notable) opportunities to make things a lot easier. But a contending team is right in front of the Twins faces if they will just jettison their short-term delusions and build for the future like their small/mid-market compatriots the Brewers and Rays.

It’s actually not that hard.  We’ve done it before.  The White Sox are in the midst of doing it.  The Royals did it not too long ago.  So did the Astros. The Brewers and the Rays are the masters.

TTT and JZ - you just need to smarten up and commit.  You will have your winner, the fans will love you,  attendance will go up, JZ will keep his job, and TTT can sell the team for a lot more money. It’s not rocket science. 

The first two years of playoffs 1969 and 1970. Minnesota wins the West and Baltimore wins the East with a better record than Minnesota. first two games in Baltimore. it's not sold out I think it was about 25,000 people. you go back to Minnesota for game 3 down two games to nine. the place was sold out packed. Minnesota twins fans have shown themselves to be some of the best in all of baseball. they were the first to get 3 million. I forget when that was. My point is mediocrity unfortunately statistically in spite of this year's world series, participants has shown you need to spend some money and that will bring in more customers. but let's keep in mind nobody playing a ball game deserves this kind of stupid money. Derek Jeter said it himself. crazy money. for the people to come these days unless don't be telling me okay. I got in for so and so price in the upper deck or whatever The price of the seats throughout the stadiums is stupid high.. $300 box seats to see one ball game for example. for people to put up money like that you have to put a winning team on the field. so somehow all this big time money to see a game there has to be a happy medium there. we don't need close to $2,000 a seat tickets behind the Yankees dugout in New York to make it work. but if you're going to let your best players go in your bullpen with guys that maybe come Superstars but they're not ready to play right now. that means people are not going to show up and they knew that when they did it. Louie earn run average under one and he had no interest in leaving Minnesota. I see a point though, there's no money I would assume to buy several 20 million Dollar a year players or more on the attendance that is there now. ownership is going to have to suck it up for a year or two. put up some money then the people will come back but ownership you going to have to do it first. get your financial people to show you what can happen when the people come back. Milwaukee and Tampa the people in the background know how to put a great team on the field without hiring. 25 $20 million year players we don't seem to have any clue how to do that. businesses don't like to take losses. but this is a sport

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Frankly Scarlett, I could give a damn weather the Twins spend 80 million or 180 million dollars. Talent is what matters and the Twins routinely don't get enough talent for who they spend dollars on... meanwhile they routinely fail to develop talent at a lower price point. 

Let's provide some food for thought on the numbers you provide from MLB.com. Because they sound awfully impressive on the surface and there are plenty of people ready to gobble them up. 

1. It's probably safe to assume that the "Upper Half" is #1 through #15 - Lower Half would be 16-30. 50% above - 50% below. Can we please recognize the enormous differences between Seattle's #16 Payroll of 170 Million and #30 Cleveland's' 74 Million. I would also like everyone to recognize the difference between #1 Mets payroll at 347 Million and and the 182 Million spent by the #15 ranked Angels. I'm not sure that cutting the rankings in half is a good placement of the arbitrary line to prove the point. 

2. 12 teams make the playoffs. 1.7 Times more likely is 7.56 out of 12 playoff teams. So 7 teams in the top half and 5 teams in the bottom half. The horribly placed arbitrary line that creates 15 teams on each side results in ONE EXTRA MONEY TEAM making the playoffs (every other year). One extra top 15 team doesn't sound as impressive as 1.7 times more likely. That's what top half money bought ya. One extra team. Two extra teams every other year. 

3. If you want to make the money point. It's there to be made. Move that arbitrary line to a more sensible location. Make it TOP TEN. The 33% of teams that are in the top 10 and compare the 33% to the 67% that are not and you see the disparity. Teams #11 through #15 are typically closer to middle class and will drag your numbers down to 1.7% and this weakens the money point. The TOP TEN money... lowers the percentage to 33% elite spenders but doesn't significantly lower the overall number of playoff teams. The truly elite level spenders are 2.6% more likely. The 33% elite will take up 57% of the playoff spots compared to 63% for the top 15. If you want to make the money point... Let's make the money point. Let's talk about the 200 million necessary to play in that real estate. 

4. The Twins can't play at that level. I repeat... the Twins can't play at that level. Therefore... The Twins WON'T play at that level no matter how many encouraging words are uttered publicly by Tom Pohlad.  The Twins can't do what the Phillies are doing... there is a huge difference between signing Bryce Harper and signing Josh Bell who is only available because Philadelphia doesn't want him. 

5. Thankfully, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa have done a nice job showing them how to do it and articles like this can be very misleading. 

6. Not trading Joe Ryan last off-season was a mistake. Not trading Joe Ryan last off season was ignoring the above 5 points. Not trading Joe Ryan was thinking that Bell and Caratini was the accumulation of enough talent to overcome a team struggling to produce young talent with a gutted bullpen that was going to be rebuilt on the fly starting at GROUND ZERO on OPENING DAY! 

7. Develop or Die. Search for talent. Young talent is talent and it's available to everybody. Give development opportunity to those who have service time to become better. Don't give development opportunity to those who will not be back next year. Do not commit to average and pretend like average or below average is irreplaceable.  Develop it talent and trade for talent because YOU CAN"T AFFORD TO BUY IT DEVELOPED BY OTHER TEAMS. This is why not trading Joe Ryan last off-season was a big mistake. 

8. Don't waste roster spaces on role players, Don't strip mine your prospects for parts. If the team decides to strip mine Emma and Jenkins for parts and they will because they have shown no indication of stopping the practice. If that is how they are going to move forward with our critical young prospects. Our only long term hope will be a leveling of the financial playing field in a future CBA because the Twins will be truly trying to compete with the Yankee and Phillies on their terms and they CAN'T DO THAT. Because Bell is not Harper. 

9. Thankfully Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa have been showing everyone a way to do what needs to be done. 

10. You do sum it up nicely with the following sentence.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to make that post.  I was thinking the same thing but thought to myself that it would take a lot of explanation so I just let it go.  Let me add that we often scoff at some of the practices of the Brewers / Rays / Guardians.   We might say that Megill was dumpster diving.  Martinez was a 1 year $9M deal.  The Rays traded Adames to get Rasmussen when he was just getting started was not yet established.  These teams don't really draft any better than the Twins.  However, they do a lot better job of acquiring young / unestablished talent.

Money definitely matters but the point to be taken from you here IMO is why are we obsessed with spending when it's simply not feasible for the Twins to spend like teams in the top 10 in revenue.  Many of us have been saying for a few years now that the Rays / Brewers & Guardians have shown us quite clearly what needs to be done.   The Twins have chosen to ignore their example.  That has never been clearer than this last year when the Twins managed to minimize the value of their tradeable assets.

[killercarewoliva]

20 hours ago, shimrod said:

Bingo. The only times the Twins have looked to add above average talent in FA have been damaged goods. The toxic Donaldson and brittle Correia. Perceived bargains. 

The Twins have on several occasions paid market price for their own high end talent. Puckett and Mauer are examples. Spending to maintain talent is better than letting it walk but it doesn't make the team better, just keeps it from getting worse. 

Pocket was the first player to reach $6 million a year salary in all of baseball. That's really hard to believe considering how this team spends, but it also shows how important Kirby Puckett was.

[killercarewoliva]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Frankly Scarlett, I could give a damn weather the Twins spend 80 million or 180 million dollars. Talent is what matters and the Twins routinely don't get enough talent for who they spend dollars on... meanwhile they routinely fail to develop talent at a lower price point. 

Let's provide some food for thought on the numbers you provide from MLB.com. Because they sound awfully impressive on the surface and there are plenty of people ready to gobble them up. 

1. It's probably safe to assume that the "Upper Half" is #1 through #15 - Lower Half would be 16-30. 50% above - 50% below. Can we please recognize the enormous differences between Seattle's #16 Payroll of 170 Million and #30 Cleveland's' 74 Million. I would also like everyone to recognize the difference between #1 Mets payroll at 347 Million and and the 182 Million spent by the #15 ranked Angels. I'm not sure that cutting the rankings in half is a good placement of the arbitrary line to prove the point. 

2. 12 teams make the playoffs. 1.7 Times more likely is 7.56 out of 12 playoff teams. So 7 teams in the top half and 5 teams in the bottom half. The horribly placed arbitrary line that creates 15 teams on each side results in ONE EXTRA MONEY TEAM making the playoffs (every other year). One extra top 15 team doesn't sound as impressive as 1.7 times more likely. That's what top half money bought ya. One extra team. Two extra teams every other year. 

3. If you want to make the money point. It's there to be made. Move that arbitrary line to a more sensible location. Make it TOP TEN. The 33% of teams that are in the top 10 and compare the 33% to the 67% that are not and you see the disparity. Teams #11 through #15 are typically closer to middle class and will drag your numbers down to 1.7% and this weakens the money point. The TOP TEN money... lowers the percentage to 33% elite spenders but doesn't significantly lower the overall number of playoff teams. The truly elite level spenders are 2.6% more likely. The 33% elite will take up 57% of the playoff spots compared to 63% for the top 15. If you want to make the money point... Let's make the money point. Let's talk about the 200 million necessary to play in that real estate. 

4. The Twins can't play at that level. I repeat... the Twins can't play at that level. Therefore... The Twins WON'T play at that level no matter how many encouraging words are uttered publicly by Tom Pohlad.  The Twins can't do what the Phillies are doing... there is a huge difference between signing Bryce Harper and signing Josh Bell who is only available because Philadelphia doesn't want him. 

5. Thankfully, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa have done a nice job showing them how to do it and articles like this can be very misleading. 

6. Not trading Joe Ryan last off-season was a mistake. Not trading Joe Ryan last off season was ignoring the above 5 points. Not trading Joe Ryan was thinking that Bell and Caratini was the accumulation of enough talent to overcome a team struggling to produce young talent with a gutted bullpen that was going to be rebuilt on the fly starting at GROUND ZERO on OPENING DAY! 

7. Develop or Die. Search for talent. Young talent is talent and it's available to everybody. Give development opportunity to those who have service time to become better. Don't give development opportunity to those who will not be back next year. Do not commit to average and pretend like average or below average is irreplaceable.  Develop it talent and trade for talent because YOU CAN"T AFFORD TO BUY IT DEVELOPED BY OTHER TEAMS. This is why not trading Joe Ryan last off-season was a big mistake. 

8. Don't waste roster spaces on role players, Don't strip mine your prospects for parts. If the team decides to strip mine Emma and Jenkins for parts and they will because they have shown no indication of stopping the practice. If that is how they are going to move forward with our critical young prospects. Our only long term hope will be a leveling of the financial playing field in a future CBA because the Twins will be truly trying to compete with the Yankee and Phillies on their terms and they CAN'T DO THAT. Because Bell is not Harper. 

9. Thankfully Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa have been showing everyone a way to do what needs to be done. 

 

 

10. You do sum it up nicely with the following sentence.

 

 

Harper had 75 runs batted in last year and checking on yours before that. I don't see a 100 RBI season in the last 5 years but here we have Josh Bell who had 96 runs batted in scoring runs is the name of the game. why does everybody want a down Bell so badly? the guy had 96 runs batted in ladies and gentlemen. That's a huge season. Hopper makes $30 million a year and he can't even get all that close to 100 runs batted in. I have reasons to say that Harper is the major number one attitude problem in Major League baseball. well that's my voice for today

 

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

Harper had 75 runs batted in last year and checking on yours before that. I don't see a 100 RBI season in the last 5 years but here we have Josh Bell who had 96 runs batted in scoring runs is the name of the game. why does everybody want a down Bell so badly? the guy had 96 runs batted in ladies and gentlemen. That's a huge season. Hopper makes $30 million a year and he can't even get all that close to 100 runs batted in. I have reasons to say that Harper is the major number one attitude problem in Major League baseball. well that's my voice for today

 

Well... This kinda why I hate using names for examples. Sometimes these 7 million dollar 1 year guys work out and sometimes they don't. Sometimes the 20 or 30 million dollar guys don't work out.

In the case of Josh Bell... He did fine. In terms of RBI's he did great. In terms of other stats... he was average but he turned out to be an OK investment at 7 million dollars. 

My problem with Josh Bell was two-fold. Please keep in mind that this is a money allocation discussion and not a Josh Bell specific discussion and with that disclaimer.

The Two fold problem with Josh Bell.

He clogged up the DH position and that DH position could be used for expanding the talent on your roster if you don't dedicate it to one player who is performing basically average.

My bigger issue with Josh bell is the same issue I have with every 1 year rental that we try to survive on year after year. He won't be back next year. In order to field a competitive team every year like Cleveland, Tampa and Milwaukee... In order to keep payroll in check... this team needs cheaper options that can do what Josh Bell can do. Other teams are able to do this. The Twins have not shown the ability to do this and this failure to do this is costing us 30 million a year and leaving no money to sign the 20 million guy who sometimes doesn't work out.