The Rays-Brewers World Series Isn't an Excuse for Twins to Spend Less Money

The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are headed to the World Series, and neither team needed a top-10 payroll to get there. Milwaukee entered the 2026 season with the 19th-highest Opening Day payroll in baseball, while Tampa Bay ranked 26th. For the Minnesota Twins, it might be tempting to look at this matchup and conclude that payroll isn't as important as people think. If these smaller-market organizations can compete for a championship without spending big, why can't the Twins?

A well-run organization can overcome financial limitations, but that doesn't mean payroll is unimportant. Three teams in the bottom 11 of Opening Day payrolls reached the League Championship Series this year, and Milwaukee made an especially convincing statement by sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose payroll was nearly twice as large as the Brewers'. Those are impressive accomplishments, but they don't change what decades of baseball history have shown us.

Teams with top-10 payrolls have won 20 of the last 28 World Series titles. MLB.com has also found that teams in the upper half of spending are roughly 1.7 times more likely to reach the playoffs; three times more likely to reach the League Championship Series; and six times more likely to reach the World Series than teams in the bottom half. Money doesn't guarantee success, but it significantly improves a team's chances of achieving it.

The Brewers and Rays are exceptions to that rule. Both organizations have built impressive systems for identifying talent, developing players and replacing departing contributors. They're among the best-run organizations in baseball, and their success demonstrates how much a smart front office can accomplish despite financial limitations. Even then, imagine what they could do with more money to retain their best players and supplement their young talent.

That's where the comparison becomes problematic for the Twins. Minnesota hasn't demonstrated the same ability to consistently overcome its limitations. Front-office turnover, managerial changes, coaching turnover and too many prospect flameouts have made it difficult to trust that the organization can consistently make the right decisions. The Twins need to improve their scouting, player development and roster construction, but they also need to give themselves more financial flexibility. When an organization hasn't shown it can consistently get the most out of its existing resources, the answer shouldn't be to provide even fewer resources and hope for better results.

This brings us to the upcoming offseason. With labor negotiations potentially bringing a salary floor, a salary cap or other changes to baseball's economic structure, we don't know exactly what the financial landscape will look like. What we do know is that the Twins need a payroll closer to the middle of the league than the bottom. They don't necessarily need to spend like the Dodgers, but they need more flexibility to retain their best players and address roster weaknesses, without relying on every prospect and every internal decision to work out perfectly.

In a 2024 interview with WCCO, Joe Pohlad pointed to the Rays as an example of why the Twins didn't need to spend big to compete. Tampa Bay has shown that an organization could win without making major investments in free agency, and the Twins believed they could follow a similar model. Now, with the Rays in the World Series alongside Milwaukee, it's easy to see how ownership could use this year's results to justify keeping payroll down. But the Rays' success doesn't mean the Twins can afford to spend less. Tampa Bay has built an organization capable of consistently overcoming its financial limitations, something Minnesota hasn't proven it can do. Tom Pohlad shouldn't mistake the success of two exceptionally well-run organizations for evidence that payroll doesn't matter.

I hope the biggest takeaway from this World Series, for Tom Pohlad and the Twins' front office, isn't that payroll doesn't matter. It absolutely does. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have earned their place on baseball's biggest stage, but their success shouldn't become another justification for Minnesota to spend less. The Twins need to make better decisions, and they need to give themselves more resources to work with. Until they prove they can consistently build and sustain a contender, spending more on the major-league roster is one of the clearest ways to improve their chances.

Do you agree? Should the Twins view the Brewers and Rays as proof that a low payroll can work, or should this World Series matchup reinforce the need for Minnesota to spend more? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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