Why Breakout Turned to Bust for Victor Caratini and Ryan Kreidler

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Twins started the 2026 season with Brooks Lee at shortstop, Royce Lewis at third base, and Luke Keaschall at second. That, to say the least, didn't work. By mid-May, Lewis was at Triple-A St. Paul, and it was clear that Lee needed to move to the hot corner. Keaschall slowly got pushed to the outfield. That left a vacuum on the infield, and whne Tristan Gray proved a poor stopper for that gap, in stepped Ryan Kreidler.

Over the offseason, Kreidler underwent a major swing change. He flattened the plane of his stroke, boosting his bat speed, and the early returns on those adjustments were superb. He played only sparingly, but at the end of June, Kreidler was batting .287/.357/.505. In 112 plate appearances, he had 10 extra-base hits (half of which were homers), 10 walks and just 19 strikeouts. The team never treated him like the solution to all their problems, exactly, but he certainly looked like a solution to some problems as the calendar turned to July.

Meanwhile, Victor Caratini actually did look like the solution to the Twins' problems. They didn't have a choice but to install him as a regular, but when Ryan Jeffers broke his hamate bone on May 18, Caratini took over full-time catching duty, and he took off like a shot. Before Jeffers went down, Caratini had batted an execrable .192/.294/.231, but he stepped up in a huge way in Jeffers's stead. From the game in which Jeffers got hurt through the All-Star break, Caratini got 138 plate appearances. He batted .282/.370/496, with 13 extra-base hits, 16 walks and 26 strikeouts. He was the linchpin of the lineup as they improbably stayed afloat.

Then, the clock struck midnight on the Cinderella stories for both Kreidler and Caratini. From July 1 through the end of the season, Kreidler was catastrophically bad. He got 155 plate appearances, but batted .169/.234/.289. In 43 more trips to the dish than he'd had in his superb first half, he produced no more extra-base hits and just one more walk, while whiffing 23 more times. He looked like a late-blooming, dynamic (albeit flawed) role player, until he didn't.

Caratini's ascent was never quite as improbable. He was a low-wattage signing over the winter, but he did get a two-year deal. Depending on your feelings about him as an individual and the class as a whole, he was either the best backup available or a quasi-regular; that's why he merited more than a one-year offer. He's been around a long time. Still, his summer surge was thrilling—which made his late-season spiral even more deflating than it would otherwise have been. Caratini made Kreidler look like a fearsome slugger in the second half. After the break, he batted .179/.263/.198, with just two extra-base hits in 118 plate appearances. He walked eight times in that span; he struck out 30 times. The closest thing to a functioning offensive skill he had was getting in the way of the ball; he was hit by four pitches.

These two players symbolize the Twins' season, in some ways. They performed better than expected for a while, but when they ran out of gas, it wasn't pretty. Specifically, they seemed to benefit from the Twins' offensive instruction for a while. The new hitting coach coalition the team assembled in the first year under Derek Shelton had several successes, and for a while, Kreidler and Caratini looked like they would number among them.

Eventually, though, both guys ran into the same problem: a grooved swing. Unfortunately, the Twins have to come in for some of the blame on that. They helped each develop and approach and a stroke that would maximize the damage they could do when they got their pitch. Teams eventually learned not to give them that pitch, though, and neither player had the plasticity to respond successfully.

Of the 338 batters with the most swings this year, Kreidler had the smallest range in average swing tilt from hacks at low pitches to those against high ones. Swing tilt is the angle between an imaginary horizontal line drawn through the handle of the bat and the actual bat position, just before contact, and while it sounds like a small thing, it's important. How much tilt a hitter has in their swing influences where they can most effectively meet the ball, and to what parts of the field they can effectively hit it. It shapes the margin for error of the swing, in a sense, and the ability to manipulate that tilt is an important part of maximizing margin for error, overall. At the opposite end of the leaderboard from Kreidler, in this metric, is exactly the person you'd expect: Luis Arraez. When he geared up to produce more bat speed and flattened out his swing this year, Kreidler lost the ability to bend that swing and hit pitches in all areas of the zone, vertically.

Caratini was second-worst in the league, right behind Kreidler. Each player took some good advice from Twins coaches this year, but they also got waylaid. By engineering their swings to hammer pitches between the mid-thigh and the belly button, they made themselves more vulnerable to everything else—and, eventually, to manipulations of timing, too, as they tried to make changes but fell short. Adaptability is a vital part of hitting, and neither Caratini nor Kreidler did it well this year. They did find some benefits in the process. For a stretch, each was the best version of himself. If the Twins want to get more sustained success from next year's crop of reclamation or development projects, though, they'll need to be emphasize more flexibility as they provide feedback on mechanics and approach—or get some players with a bit more pure talent than Kreidler and Caratini possess.

Both hitters focused an above-average share of their swings in the middle of the zone, which is good. They were aware that their swings weren't especially maneuverable, and they tried to devise a plan to survive that shortcoming. They couldn't outrun it, though. As the team heads into the offseason, the front office has been enthusiastic about what they achieved on the hitting side this year. There were some unequivocal successes, along with these qualified ones, so much of that self-satisfaction is justified. If they want to know where they still have some heavy lifting to do, though, they need look no further than the craters left by the way Caratini and Kreidler crashed to Earth late in the year.

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[sweetmusicviola16]

Could have added a third player to this story for sure, Trevor Larnach.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Caratini had a slightly below career average year as 33 year old catcher, that is to be expected. His FG projection was 90 wRC+, he hit 79. He’s hit 74 and mid 80s several seasons.

Kriedler had a career year, by a wide margin. He’s a terrible hitter. Career 52 wRC+ projected to 80, and he hit 85.

What is to be expected from these two?

[tony&rodney]

At least Kreidler stabilized shortstop, which was pretty poor before the position switches with Lee, Lewis, and Keaschall. Pitchers getting pretty depressed when a really good pitch that is rolled toward shortstop eludes the glove of a substandard fielder. 

[JADBP]

Hoping that Kreider goes away and stays away.  But we are stuck with Caratini.

The problem with Twins Catchers is lingering Falvey/Zoll effect.  For a very long time, Falvey didn't add C talent to the prospect pool.  Only when it became obvious that Jeffers was going to blossom and become too expensive for the Twins did he try to get additional talent into the pipeline.  Now we have a gap of 1-2 years before upcoming talent is ready for biggs....unless we trust Vahn Lackey enough to step in late next year (I would think that progressive teams can recognize a Keaschall when they see one).  

[DJL44]

Even Kreidler’s “slump” is better than his career numbers before the season started. He exceeded expectations all year. He’s just a really bad hitter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, JADBP said:

Hoping that Kreider goes away and stays away.  But we are stuck with Caratini.

The problem with Twins Catchers is lingering Falvey/Zoll effect.  For a very long time, Falvey didn't add C talent to the prospect pool.  Only when it became obvious that Jeffers was going to blossom and become too expensive for the Twins did he try to get additional talent into the pipeline.  Now we have a gap of 1-2 years before upcoming talent is ready for biggs....unless we trust Vahn Lackey enough to step in late next year (I would think that progressive teams can recognize a Keaschall when they see one).  

Falvey drafted catchers every year of his tenure except 2023. He drafted 20 some of them, many of which late round, but not all.

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/team-draft.php?t=MIN

Khadim Diaw was drafted in ‘24, is 22 in AA and is getting some attention.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Falvey drafted catchers every year of his tenure except 2023. He drafted 20 some of them, many of which late round, but not all.

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/team-draft.php?t=MIN

Khadim Diaw was drafted in ‘24, is 22 in AA and is getting some attention.

The dude said catching talent. One could argue they didn’t ass much talent through the draft for several tears in most of the positions. 

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Falvey drafted catchers every year of his tenure except 2023. He drafted 20 some of them, many of which late round, but not all.

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/team-draft.php?t=MIN

Khadim Diaw was drafted in ‘24, is 22 in AA and is getting some attention.

Yet they couldn't develop anyone beyond Jeffers. Jeffers matured all the way from rookie to free agent and he is the sum total of organizational catching development during this lengthy period of time. I really hope to see Diaw but until they promote and play one... the play one part seems to be the hill they can't climb. 

They were so trusting of Jeffers development that they spent 30 million on Vazquez. 

Vazquez produced an OPS under .600 every single year. They couldn't develop anyone capable of reaching that low bar. 

Caratini had a couple of years of what I would call hitting good for a catcher. Never hit good for a 1B or DH. But, they were going to slam him in there anyway to start the season. Th 7 million spent was poor use of limited resources and he will be the guy next year so we spend another 7 million. Meanwhile... there is an impressive list of young catching in the major leagues being produced by the other 29 teams. 

I replied in regards to Catching... So... as not to ignore the other half of topic Kriedler.

I think he did decently in consideration of something fairly important.

That fairly important consideration is this: We didn't aggressively pursue infield help. You could almost say that we were locked in on Lee at SS, Lewis 3B, Keaschall 2B and Clemens/Caratini at 1B. And we declared that we were going for it. 

Gray was the initial selection over Kreidler and Arcia to grab that last roster spot so Kriedler was the 2nd choice for the last spot. 

Gray, Kreidler and Arcia were the insurance policies against anything going wrong in the infield and every single thing went wrong in the infield. Because none of those 5 people listed ended up playing those same positions by the end of the year. How do you lock into a lineup that ended up having to be completely revamped two months into the season. Lee wasn't good enough for SS and moved to 3B. Lewis wasn't good enough for the major leagues and was moved to 1B when he returned to the majors and mainly to accommodate Lee moving to 3B. Keaschall wasn't good enough for 2B and was moved to the outfield and Clemens was moved to 2B to accomodate Lewis and Lee. Kriedler became our primary SS. 

It's like the front office didn't know that the possibility of something going wrong with Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Clemens and Caratini was even possible. 

Given the circumstances and the lack of front office preparation to deal with such circumstances.

Kriedler was a godsend. 

We went for it. 

[Trov]

Neither were expected to carry the team at any point, the fact that they helped in June make fans think the Twins had some chance was just bonus for the Twins. Caratini was signed to be backup catcher, he was used more than that early in year. Had they carried the hitting all season long that would have been great, but no one should have expected it.  Baseball is always about adjustments.

[killercarewoliva]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yet they couldn't develop anyone beyond Jeffers. Jeffers matured all the way from rookie to free agent and he is the sum total of organizational catching development during this lengthy period of time. I really hope to see Diaw but until they promote and play one... the play one part seems to be the hill they can't climb. 

They were so trusting of Jeffers development that they spent 30 million on Vazquez. 

Vazquez produced an OPS under .600 every single year. They couldn't develop anyone capable of reaching that low bar. 

Caratini had a couple of years of what I would call hitting good for a catcher. Never hit good for a 1B or DH. But, they were going to slam him in there anyway to start the season. Th 7 million spent was poor use of limited resources and he will be the guy next year so we spend another 7 million. Meanwhile... there is an impressive list of young catching in the major leagues being produced by the other 29 teams. 

I replied in regards to Catching... So... as not to ignore the other half of topic Kriedler.

I think he did decently in consideration of something fairly important.

That fairly important consideration is this: We didn't aggressively pursue infield help. You could almost say that we were locked in on Lee at SS, Lewis 3B, Keaschall 2B and Clemens/Caratini at 1B. And we declared that we were going for it. 

Gray was the initial selection over Kreidler and Arcia to grab that last roster spot so Kriedler was the 2nd choice for the last spot. 

Gray, Kreidler and Arcia were the insurance policies against anything going wrong in the infield and every single thing went wrong in the infield. Because none of those 5 people listed ended up playing those same positions by the end of the year. How do you lock into a lineup that ended up having to be completely revamped two months into the season. Lee wasn't good enough for SS and moved to 3B. Lewis wasn't good enough for the major leagues and was moved to 1B when he returned to the majors and mainly to accommodate Lee moving to 3B. Keaschall wasn't good enough for 2B and was moved to the outfield and Clemens was moved to 2B to accomodate Lewis and Lee. Kriedler became our primary SS. 

It's like the front office didn't know that the possibility of something going wrong with Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Clemens and Caratini was even possible. 

Given the circumstances and the lack of front office preparation to deal with such circumstances.

Kriedler was a godsend. 

We went for it. 

what was the problem with Arcia? I saw a 300 batting average gets sent down. I didn't think his defense was all that bad. no I think he got released and then he wasn't picked up. so maybe I'm just stupid since nobody wanted him. caratini I thought played pretty good first base but he can't hit very well and when you look at him statistically how do we give that $7 million and then be willing to do it 2 years in a row?

[Andy MacPhail]

Caratini is 33 yrs. old & has been at best, a backup catcher. When he got regular ABs he did well until it got too regular & too long. Caratini is far from an elite primary catcher. Like Kriedler, his drop off was to be expected. Looking at '27, Krielder is expendable & like what was said we are stuck with Caratini. We need Caratini but he needs a lot of help.

Tanner Swanson saw potential in Ben Rortvedt & took him to NYY. He got injured, when he came back he became Garret Cole's personal catcher but didn't really develop his hitting. He was traded to TB & became their primary catcher. With regular ABs, he hit really well until the grind & Florida summer got the best of him. He's been floating around but LAD like to have him in the org, as much as possible, His 1st year with LAD, in the playoffs, he did real well until Will Smith came back & bumped him. 

Rortvedt is from Wisc, so he's acclimated to our weather, he's a very good defensive catcher, LH hitter who, IMO, if managed properly can hit. He's not a primary catcher but if used in tandem with Caratini (Ben could be used more) they could be productive, especially if they get a promising young 3rd catcher like Edgar Quero, who I think still has 2 options, to fill in until Lackey is ready. More than likely ex-Twin Rortvedt will be DFAed some time, I recommend picking him up.

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

what was the problem with Arcia? I saw a 300 batting average gets sent down. I didn't think his defense was all that bad. no I think he got released and then he wasn't picked up. so maybe I'm just stupid since nobody wanted him. caratini I thought played pretty good first base but he can't hit very well and when you look at him statistically how do we give that $7 million and then be willing to do it 2 years in a row?

In 50 AB's Arcia did OK. Not a large enough sample to feel comfortable with any declaration IMO. 

His biggest problem remains 2024 and 2025. 600 PA's with the Braves in 2024 with a .625 OPS and he lost that starting job early in 2025 to Nick Allen who ended up producing a .535 OPS over 400 PA's. Which led to the grabbing of Kim off the waiver wire in September. Kim wasn't the answer either for the Braves in 2026 has he was even worse offensively which led to Dubon becoming the primary SS. 

In the end.

We rostered a 31 year old SS option who lost his job to Nick Allen who lost his Job to Kim who lost his job to Dubon.    

He became necessary for the roster when Lewis was demoted. It was May 20th... just barely into the season and we had an infield of Lee 3B, Keaschall at 2B and Keaschall was struggling both offensively and defensively. Clemens was playing 1B but also playing OF at the time which led to Bell playing more 1B than they probably wanted. Gray, Kreidler and Arcia were all up. Gray was the primary SS for that stretch with Arcia filling in around the infield with Kriedler bouncing between SS and CF. 

This year... I hope we get serious about staffing the ENTIRE roster. We will have the same problems in the infield in 2027 if we take the same approach that we did in 2026.

 

[terrydactyls]

This article was very informative about the stupidity of the hitting philosophy of the Twins.  Why do they want players to focus their swings on the pitches between mid-thigh and the belly button?  Any non-pitcher who makes to the major leagues already knows how to handle a meatball pitch.  The coaches need to focus their "instructions" on hitting pitches that are not right down the middle.  One such area would be to work with Royce Lewis on how to handle pitches that are low and away.  He will never be able to hit a pitch like that if he continues to attempt to pull the ball.  "Instruct" him to try to hit those pitches to right field.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

This article was very informative about the stupidity of the hitting philosophy of the Twins.  Why do they want players to focus their swings on the pitches between mid-thigh and the belly button?  Any non-pitcher who makes to the major leagues already knows how to handle a meatball pitch.  The coaches need to focus their "instructions" on hitting pitches that are not right down the middle.  One such area would be to work with Royce Lewis on how to handle pitches that are low and away.  He will never be able to hit a pitch like that if he continues to attempt to pull the ball.  "Instruct" him to try to hit those pitches to right field.

Makes you wonder if this killed Wallner’s season 

[ewen21]

17 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Caratini had a slightly below career average year as 33 year old catcher, that is to be expected. His FG projection was 90 wRC+, he hit 79. He’s hit 74 and mid 80s several seasons.

Kriedler had a career year, by a wide margin. He’s a terrible hitter. Career 52 wRC+ projected to 80, and he hit 85.

What is to be expected from these two?

If we are to consider their performances to be disappointing that is the question I would like answered.  You laid it out simply and accurately.  From their histories, what should we have expected?

This the Mike Lamb-Syndrome

[mikelink45]

If we want to see improvement, we make enough changes that Caratini is not the starting C and Kreidler is not on the roster.   I would love to see our current roster set side by side with the roster that we have in 2027 and see how much Tom Pohlad has committed to a better ending.  

[ashbury]

The BABIP gods giveth and the BABIP gods taketh away.  Nothing to see here, folks - regression to their level of actual hitting ability.