Dean Kremer vs. Bailey Ober: Who Should Stay in Minnesota?

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Johan Santana? You mean when Bradley was five years old?

No, I am saying Bradley would be a nice #3 if we had Johan and Liriano going at the same time.  It just a happy thought not to be taken on a literal level.

[MeleMouth]

7 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

No, I am saying Bradley would be a nice #3 if we had Johan and Liriano going at the same time.  It just a happy thought not to be taken on a literal level.

Radke and Silva were pretty good, and when Radke retired Baker was pretty good. Bradley could have replaced Boof Bonser as #5 if Gardy and his pitch to contact philosophy didn't mind the higher number of walks.

[mike8791]

2 hours ago, Coach said:

30HR/100RBI potential iB who can play defense.  Clemens is the answer you're looking for, plus we have him through 2029?

Do you really believe Clemens is the #3 or #4 batter in a contender's lineup with a .230 BA and ,300 OBP?    Yes, he's had a great year but would you expect a repeat, given his MLB track record?  We need at least one or two more  3-4 WAR players to be a serious contender.  Currently, we have none.

[CRF]

Bailey's been a decent starter, but it's time for him to move on. I think it's over for Ober. Hang onto Kremer...for now.

[Riverbrian]

I think Ober has a higher trade value. 

This team could probably move one of the 4 expiring contracts for help on the infield or bullpen help.

Personally, I'd see if you can get a decent young infielder for him. SS capable. 

And that is nothing to suggest I wouldn't like Ober on the team. He's one of us. He would just make the most sense to move for help elsewhere.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Why would they bring in another arm, you can't have depth of 10 or 12 arms that is not feasible.

the Twins had 10 guys make 3 starts or more this year
 

 

 

[JCT66]

9 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Ober can go. He is declining steadily. His loss of velocity has more than offset the advantage a 7 foot extension gives him. 

I'm on the fence with Kremer. I don't want a 31 year old back of the rotation starter interfering with guys like Prielipp, Matthews, Able and Rojas taking their next steps. At the same time, history has shown the Twins need rotation depth that runs about 7 pitchers.

I’d say they need starting pitching depth that runs about 9 pitchers. 
 

I’d like the Opening day rotation to be Pablo, Joe, Taj, Prielipp and Kremer.  Bid a fond farewell to Bailey and wish him the best wherever he lands.  Able, Festa, Rojas at AAA with hopefully Riley Quick as well. Not sure about Zebby. Might be time to go to the Bullpen where I absolutely believe he could dominate. 

[Mike Sixel]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I think Ober has a higher trade value. 

This team could probably move one of the 4 expiring contracts for help on the infield or bullpen help.

Personally, I'd see if you can get a decent young infielder for him. SS capable. 

And that is nothing to suggest I wouldn't like Ober on the team. He's one of us. He would just make the most sense to move for help elsewhere.  

I'd be shocked if you can even get a top 150 prospect, let alone a guy playing in the majors, who can pay SS, that you'd ever want hitting. I don't think teams trade SS that can hit very often, let alone for a number four starter. 

[mikelink45]

Tonight Ober made the decision - Kremer stays

[Twodogs]

Pablo Lopez

Joe Ryan

Taj Bradley

Zebby Matthews

Dean Kremer

Mick Abel

Connor Prelipp

Bailey Ober

Maybe Festa??

 

The Twins have basically 8 guys for 5 spots, I mean they would kind of be like a poor man's Dodgers.  I mean how many starting pitchers do they have rolling around in the organization, or (did have) before the Skubal trade.  I mean the Dodgers have proven that even they need all of the starters in order to have a full consistent season.  Now it would be a great problem if everyone was completely healthy all year long but in all reality, Pablo will probably only be counted on for a solid 20 - 24 Starts.  Let's error on the low side as we know how this always plays out.  Ryan could put together a full season of 32 starts but he hasn't done that lately, but lets say Ryan and put down 29 - 30 starts.  Right now Taj, probably because of his youth and he hasn't been abused over the last 3 - 4 seasons could probably be counted on for 32 starts.  Zebby might be able to take another step forward and start 28 - 30 games.  Zebby and Prelipp have looked to be maturing a little and could be on the cusp of becoming trustworthy of giving them the ball every day.  Kremer as the 5th starter should be counted on for 24 - 25 starts hopefully after showing that he is fully recovered.  Then you have Abel, who knows after recovering from injury maybe he can have 15 solid major league starts?  Then ideally Prelipp 15 solid major league starts puts you at about 162 or so.  Now you still have Ober on the squad for insurance.  I mean in no way do i really want Ober to be starting 30 games a year, but he'd be a great fall back option to throw 20 starts if any of those other guys get hurt which they will, maybe not serious injuries but injured enough to miss 3 - 4 weeks, you know with back spasms or bi lateral leg weakness, and if 2 or 3 of the guys the Twins are depending on have some minor things that put them out for a few weeks here or there then Bailey would come in perfect.  Just my thoughts, can never have enough pitching.  

 

I mean it would be ideal if the Twins went out and signed Skubal and King after he opts out and then brought in Freddy Peralta as insurance but that won't happen.  The Twins have a good group of decent pitchers and Ober has a lot of major league experience and innings under his belt.  I think he is a good keep if they aren't trying to run him out there at their #3 starter or something like that.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be shocked if you can even get a top 150 prospect, let alone a guy playing in the majors, who can pay SS, that you'd ever want hitting. I don't think teams trade SS that can hit very often, let alone for a number four starter. 

Maybe. 

I'd have no idea what is possible. I just assume that Ober would bring more than Kremer. And I've seen average starting pitching... even below average starting pitching get moved for some value. 

Add to it if you have to but Ober would have more value in my opinion. 

[The Great Hambino]

1. In terms of investment for next season, Kremer and Ober are roughly equal (let's say $8MM each, give or take a mil)

2. The Twins acquired Kremer at the trade deadline knowing this

3. It doesn't make much sense to spend $16MM on two slots at the back of the rotation, especially since they can't be optioned to AAA if necessary

4.  Some of y'all are acting like it's not possible for them to acquire more starters in the offseason.  That is an option, whether through free agency or trade, especially if $8MM gets freed up by moving on from one of these guys

5.  When in doubt, the starter that was recently used out of the bullpen is the likelier of two starters to be cut loose

To me, it all adds up to goodbye Ober, welcome back Kremer.  Now invest in a ceiling raising starter, and you might actually have the makings of a quality rotation with decent depth next year

[Danchat]

For me, projecting forward who is more likely to continue regressing leads me to want to say goodbye to Ober. What if his stuff drops another level? Pre 2025 Ober is not coming back, whereas Kremer resembled his former self with us. So I think Kremer's back and Ober isn't... they should be able to trade Ober for something, not gonna be a lot, but teams will pay for starting pitching.

[JCT66]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

Pablo Lopez

Joe Ryan

Taj Bradley

Zebby Matthews

Dean Kremer

Mick Abel

Connor Prelipp

Bailey Ober

Maybe Festa??

 

The Twins have basically 8 guys for 5 spots, I mean they would kind of be like a poor man's Dodgers.  I mean how many starting pitchers do they have rolling around in the organization, or (did have) before the Skubal trade.  I mean the Dodgers have proven that even they need all of the starters in order to have a full consistent season.  Now it would be a great problem if everyone was completely healthy all year long but in all reality, Pablo will probably only be counted on for a solid 20 - 24 Starts.  Let's error on the low side as we know how this always plays out.  Ryan could put together a full season of 32 starts but he hasn't done that lately, but lets say Ryan and put down 29 - 30 starts.  Right now Taj, probably because of his youth and he hasn't been abused over the last 3 - 4 seasons could probably be counted on for 32 starts.  Zebby might be able to take another step forward and start 28 - 30 games.  Zebby and Prelipp have looked to be maturing a little and could be on the cusp of becoming trustworthy of giving them the ball every day.  Kremer as the 5th starter should be counted on for 24 - 25 starts hopefully after showing that he is fully recovered.  Then you have Abel, who knows after recovering from injury maybe he can have 15 solid major league starts?  Then ideally Prelipp 15 solid major league starts puts you at about 162 or so.  Now you still have Ober on the squad for insurance.  I mean in no way do i really want Ober to be starting 30 games a year, but he'd be a great fall back option to throw 20 starts if any of those other guys get hurt which they will, maybe not serious injuries but injured enough to miss 3 - 4 weeks, you know with back spasms or bi lateral leg weakness, and if 2 or 3 of the guys the Twins are depending on have some minor things that put them out for a few weeks here or there then Bailey would come in perfect.  Just my thoughts, can never have enough pitching.  

 

I mean it would be ideal if the Twins went out and signed Skubal and King after he opts out and then brought in Freddy Peralta as insurance but that won't happen.  The Twins have a good group of decent pitchers and Ober has a lot of major league experience and innings under his belt.  I think he is a good keep if they aren't trying to run him out there at their #3 starter or something like that.

This an interesting post but it ignores the reality of the situation. Both Kremer and Ober have no options. So if they aren’t on the opening day roster where are you putting them?   One or the other has to go.  Neither is a legitimate bullpen option because of their cost and skill set. Matthews does have one more option year but at 28 is he really a good AAA candidate.  
 

I can’t understand why you would put Prielipp behind Matthews and Able on the rotation depth.  Able has a lot of upside, but he’s going to have to prove it for more than a handful of games and Prielipp had as about as good a rookie year as one could have hoped for. 
 

I’m not sure what to make of Zebby. So inconsistent.  He’s had three years to show what he can do and the results are inconclusive. His career really tracks the same as Varland. Let’s see what he can do in the bullpen. 

[1985Fan]

I think Ober pitched himself out of next year’s rotation with his start last night. Time to move on. Trade him for whatever you can get. 

[Fatbat]

Ober is good value if he can be a bullpen beast. We need more solid guys that get outs in the late innings. It would be foolish not to try him there. 
Kremer is still a solid starter for now. He seems to have taken a step up after the trade and delivery tweaks. He should be penciled into the #5 spot and dominate his games against most other #5s in MLB. Keep them both!

[Fatbat]

@Twodogs How about starting the season with a 6 man rotation? Pablo is/will be somewhat limited. Ryan has been suffering from burnout. An extra days rest might keep the SP’s healthier until the weather heats up. By the time the end of the season rolls around, it’s about total innings that the best pitchers get. We got quality depth and we should use it to our advantage. 
Ober goes to the pen. He is no longer starter quality.

Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Preillip, Matthews and Kremer.  Abel in AAA as the next man up. Festa hopefully is healthy and can be available for more depth. 
However it shakes out, we have quality depth but it would always be nice to sign a front line starter via free agency or get one in a trade. 

[stringer bell]

I really can't see both guys coming back in 2027 and as noted in the OP, it is more than possible that both will be gone before the first official pitch of the new season is thrown. They are pretty close to the same age with the same wear and tear on their bodies. Ober has been a unicorn, getting outs with an 88 mph heater and lots of movement. Kremer would appear to be more of a standard issue backend guy.

I think Kremer has a bit more upside so I'd pick him, but if he could net more in a trade than the "bearded nightmare", Ober could stay. 

[ewen21]

15 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Do you really believe Clemens is the #3 or #4 batter in a contender's lineup with a .230 BA and ,300 OBP?    Yes, he's had a great year but would you expect a repeat, given his MLB track record?  We need at least one or two more  3-4 WAR players to be a serious contender.  Currently, we have none.

If fear some people are drinking from the same chalice with Clemens as some did with Nick Punto.  How about we take a step back and appreciate what he did this year.  This is hardly his norm and in no way should we expect this from him going forward.  If he supplies us with this kind of production next year, that is gravy.

[JBK]

Kremer

[David Maro]

This is 2026 going into 2027 throwing 87,88 doesn't play anymore. You may fool hitters the first time around,but not the 2nd time. Ober's offspeed is only 4 or 5 msp different and as you saw last night the Rangers were all over it. If going to the BP can change that then that's where he should be. Kremer has a little more velocity and a bigger difference in his offspeed,so he is #5. 

With the other arms developing it is time to move Ryan before he and his agent look for the big contract. This is a small market team that needs to think like the Brewers or Rays.

It was said last night that Lopez left the team to ramp up his rehab. Hopefully that means he is looking to be ready for the start of the season when ever that is.

[Historyking88]

Not a hot take: they are both useless! Both have allowed half as many ER in the total innings they have pitched and neither have good velocity to be starting pitchers. And whoever thinks it’s wise to pay Kremer 7-8M in arbitration next season for a team this is cap strapped when it comes to payroll is delusional even if they introduce a salary floor for 2027. The Twins need to trade or sign an upgrade for the rotation if they really want to contend next season. 

[Historyking88]

20 hours ago, Coach said:

Keep both, they did good, and we will need them.  Long seasons. Plus, I like the contrast of styles compared to our other pitches, especially if they end up in the bullpen.

This comment proves that you know absolutely nothing about baseball and should not be allowed to comment on anything to do with baseball in the future. 

[ewen21]

41 minutes ago, Historyking88 said:

Not a hot take: they are both useless! Both have allowed half as many ER in the total innings they have pitched and neither have good velocity to be starting pitchers. And whoever thinks it’s wise to pay Kremer 7-8M in arbitration next season for a team this is cap strapped when it comes to payroll is delusional even if they introduce a salary floor for 2027. The Twins need to trade or sign an upgrade for the rotation if they really want to contend next season. 

This gave me a chuckle, if I may be blunt.

 

I am "Bearish" on almost all pitching on our roster at this current time.  I am going to need to see it and in the case of Lopez, he's coming back after his second TJ, so I have concerns about his personal wellbeing.  I am not trying to see Joel Zumaya 2.0.  I have no real expectations for Lopez. or Matthews for that matter.  He is 9-11 with a 4.90ERA and that is a jump up for him.  I still have a foul taste in my mouth from that absolute debacle at Wrigley Field right about when curious optimism was starting to rise in me (for no good reason) just after the ASB.  Matthews spit the bit in the worst possible way in that series.  I just don't see the dog in him and I never did.  More of the same.  Finesse, pitch to contact kinds of hand jobs.  I am beyond my limit with this.  How can a team literally NEVER draft, raise and bring up a legit pitcher with an AS season?

 

YOu'd think maybe once we'd get one by accident?  Nope.  I guess we don't deserve good stuff 

[Twodogs]

19 hours ago, JCT66 said:

This an interesting post but it ignores the reality of the situation. Both Kremer and Ober have no options. So if they aren’t on the opening day roster where are you putting them?   One or the other has to go.  Neither is a legitimate bullpen option because of their cost and skill set. Matthews does have one more option year but at 28 is he really a good AAA candidate.  
 

I can’t understand why you would put Prielipp behind Matthews and Able on the rotation depth.  Able has a lot of upside, but he’s going to have to prove it for more than a handful of games and Prielipp had as about as good a rookie year as one could have hoped for. 
 

I’m not sure what to make of Zebby. So inconsistent.  He’s had three years to show what he can do and the results are inconclusive. His career really tracks the same as Varland. Let’s see what he can do in the bullpen. 

Honestly the only reason I put Prelipp behind Zebby and Abel is because they keep talking about limiting his innings and such.  So I was thinking that they could limit Prelipp early in the season and then let him loose in the 2nd half.  I know its probably not realistic to keep both, but for whatever Kremer or Ober are going to get in arbitration, which honestly shouldn't be a lot.  Whatever they save by releasing one of those guys they won't be able to sign anyone better for that same amount of money.  So maybe Ober is the long guy out of the pen??  But it might not work that way either?