The Twins Are About to Lose Their MVP. They Must Get Something in Return.

[Vanimal46]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Getting a comp pick in the mid-high 30’s is not even close to acceptable compensation for Jeffers, especially given the decisions (and lack thereof) that lead us to this spot.

I would feel a little better about it if the Twins were better at drafting and developing talent. But that's not a strength in this organization.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

If he does leave, which he may, then they HAVE to bring in a better catcher to pair with Caratini than Alex Jackson. That's imperative.

I wouldn't at all hate extending Jeffers and having him be the primary 1b/DH. Not that he can't catch, but his bat has been so strong and I want to keep that bat in the lineup if possible. IF he leaves, then they NEED to replace his bat/production with a good right handed hitter to put in the middle of the lineup. Maybe that's Randy Arozarena? Yandy Diaz? Trading for someone else?

He probably leaves, and they probably get a good draft pick. But then they have to replace his production. He is at a 5ish win pace for a full season this year, so it'll almost HAVE to be young guys replacing along with at least one bat (probably 2) and getting Buxton healthy with his hip stuff. It isn't impossible, as Jenkins and Culpepper having full seasons certainly should be upgrades over what was ran out there this season. 

I guess we'll see what the future holds. Hopefully there is a full 2027 season.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

He would have been roughly a 4 WAR player had he not broken his hamate bone.  Jeffers is the only FA catcher anywhere near this level so scarcity will be his friend.  I would guess 4/60.

Why are you assuming that? People were using this same logic with Trevor Larnach before he hit a wall and starting hitting like we all remember him capable of hitting. 

 

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

If you had a choice, and if you experienced this organization from the inside, you probably wouldn't want an extension here either. Who would?

Josh Donaldson said nothing wrong! 

 

1 hour ago, TJSweens said:

1 year $23.6M vs 3 years at about $39M or 4 years at about $52M. 

This is way undershooting what he's going to be offered, and if this WERE the case, this demonstrates perfectly why he should bet on himself, take the 1 year deal and then be very confident he can get better than a 2 year / $16M or 3 year / $30M  contract after an encore Twins season. 

[SteveLV]

I will be stunned if Jeffers gets anything less than a $60M offer.  I think it will be closer to $80M.

C's are scarce, and C's that can hit are even scarcer.  He will get paid.

[mluebker]

A one-year contract isn't something the Twins are going to offer for a season likely to be truncated by the CBA negotiations/lockout. And who knows what the new deal is going to look like? If they really want him--and I think they should--they're going to have to offer him a multi-year contract and hope he likes it here well enough to take less money than some other team is likely to put on the table.

[bean5302]

Jeffers a 4 WAR season if he hadn't been hurt? Maybe. He was out for 48 games? Expect he'd have played in about 30 of them. He still has to play out the last 20 games this year as well. He could wind up at 2 WAR on the year if he slumps.

Pre-injury = wRC+ 167

Post injury = wRC+ 121

Overall '26 = wRC+ 142

Overall '26 +30G at wRC+ 121 = wRC+136

Last 4 years = wRC+ 122

He looks to be having a career year right now. That does not mean teams are going to give him a contract based on his career year, but I do think it helps Jeffers with +1 contract year or a couple million of AAV.

[Chembry]

57 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Getting a comp pick in the mid-high 30’s is not even close to acceptable compensation for Jeffers, especially given the decisions (and lack thereof) that lead us to this spot.

What do you think we could have received for Jeffers, a 2 month rental coming off 8 weeks on the IL?

Jeffers, was tied to the Yankees, what would you expect from the Yankees in return for Jeffers?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would feel a little better about it if the Twins were better at drafting and developing talent. But that's not a strength in this organization.  

They seem to be getting better.   

Jenkins, Culpepper, Jenkins Lackey,  Houston, Matthews, Morris, Priellip.  The 22 draft class is pretty dang impressive.  

We traded off almost the entire 2021 draft class to support the big league team.  We did something similar but not quite as drastic trading off Amick and Hill from the 2024 draft class.  Still have Culpepper, Debarge (meh), Diaw.  Kendle and Ferrer may surprise but the pitching in that class has been extremely meh.   2025 has been pleasantly surprising on the  pitching front,  but injuries have limited some upside.  .  

Young appears to be lacking too much hit tool.   Barr struggled adjusting a bit,  Ellwanger was injured Reitz did ok.  Quick has been pushed in the system.  The mid to late round players have done better than the previous classes.  Mitrovich, Smith, Fang, Jones, Moring, and Stevens, Dalquiest, Becker, and Hilker have all pitched (better than previous classes) and there appears to be some decent clay in that group.   There are some high velocity throwers in the 2026 class which should be interesting to watch.  

The hitters especially picked later in 2026 have been pretty dang interesting in A ball.  Teel, Turner, Lane all look solid.       Teel .713(was .900 for a stretch),     Turner .941         Lane .978.  Thats an impressive group of hitters picked in the 10th and later rounds.  Tinney struggled a bit with the more inaccurate pitching at the A ball level similar to Lackey.  He has pounded the ball when he got a hold of it  .932 OPS.   Lackey ended in high A and did well.   

The international side also appears to be developing more fruit recently.  This isn't elite but its all an improvement.   Having high draft picks helps the outcomes as well.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Chembry said:

What do you think we could have received for Jeffers, a 2 month rental coming off 8 weeks on the IL?

Jeffers, was tied to the Yankees, what would you expect from the Yankees in return for Jeffers?

The talk was we could have fetched someone with around 20-25 million excess value.   Think Bradley valuation of last year, so either someone with high upside but hadn't performed as well or a pretty good upside player still in the minors.   Someone picked at the end of the first generally has a value of 10-15 million.  So we left something on the table and something that is less likely to hit and much further away than getting a player in AA or AAA.  

[Chembry]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The talk was we could have fetched someone with around 20-25 million excess value.   Think Bradley valuation of last year, so either someone with high upside but hadn't performed as well or a pretty good upside player still in the minors.   Someone picked at the end of the first generally has a value of 10-15 million.  So we left something on the table and something that is less likely to hit and much further away than getting a player in AA or AAA.  

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value.  There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust.  According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value.   I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be.  We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return.  It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues.  

I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect.  My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.   

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would feel a little better about it if the Twins were better at drafting and developing talent. But that's not a strength in this organization.  

I get it.  This has not been a strength.  However, drafting and development is a prerequisite to building a winning team with below average revenue.  This is often taken position on TD as if there is an alternative strategy with any chance of succeeding.  There is not.  IYou are not taking this position but there are a quite few people who see little value in prospects when they are our best chance of building a contender.  We should all be focused on the team getting better at this essential element of building a contender.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value.  There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust.  According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value.   I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be.  We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return.  It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues.  

I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect.  My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.   

I stand by that this team could have gotten Hess and Beck from them.  Which is likely better than the comp pick in valuation.

Both guys that profile as potential impact reliever converts in the near future.  You know....things we could really use.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

I stand by that this team could have gotten Hess and Beck from them.  Which is likely better than the comp pick in valuation.

Both guys that profile as potential impact reliever converts in the near future.  You know....things we could really use.

100 percent they get more than the comp pick is worth. Now, they may luck into a better player, but that's not the same thing. 

Anyone here, and it will be dozens of people, complaining they don't have enough good minor league players, who insisted they buy, needs to stop talking next year and reflect....

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value.  There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust.  According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value.   I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be.  We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return.  It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues.  

I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect.  My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.   

For as much as the Red Sox gave the Orioles I am sure you could have gotten a significant return and it may have been from the Red Sox or even another team. Our front office made it clear they weren’t trading him. 

[IndianaTwin]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I actually don't think Jeffers is good enough of a player to get a 4 year deal, even with catcher scarcity. He MIGHT be a top 10 catcher the last 3 years. He's a solid, dependable starter, not a star. 

Even so, I think he'll get 3 years and up to $66 million. You have to extend a QO, and because of the depressive nature of that you get a better chance to negotiate with him if he declines. 

The Twins just jumped in franchise value from about $1.6B to $2.3B with the sales of the Padres and Angels resetting the market. The Pohlads should use some of that unrecognized value to actually improve the team for the first time in their privileged pathetic lives. 

Someone notes Contreras above as a comparable who got a five-year deal.

The Twins gave Vazquez a three-year deal for his age 32-34 seasons, coming off much weaker seasons than what Jeffers has had. They gave Castro a three-year deal for his age 30-32 seasons, again coming off much weaker seasons Jeffers. 

Jeffers will get longer and a higher AAV (even inflation adjusted) than either Castro or Vazquez. I think it’s very unlikely there won’t be at least one team offering four years. 

[Chembry]

50 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I stand by that this team could have gotten Hess and Beck from them.  Which is likely better than the comp pick in valuation.

Both guys that profile as potential impact reliever converts in the near future.  You know....things we could really use

 

40 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

For as much as the Red Sox gave the Orioles I am sure you could have gotten a significant return and it may have been from the Red Sox or even another team. Our front office made it clear they weren’t trading him. 

I just don’t think the Twins get as much as most here expect for a 2 month rental that had recently returned from an 8 week IL stint.  But it doesn’t really matter anymore…

Back to the topic at hand, it only makes sense to issue a QO since they didn’t trade him.  I do think Jeffers will get 4/$70-80M range.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Someone notes Contreras above as a comparable who got a five-year deal.

I just think Contreras was significantly better than Jeffers when he became a free agent. I'd be shocked if Jeffers gets 5 years, but 4 isn't out of the realm of possibility I suppose. But I'm sticking my feather in 3. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I saw a couple of extension offers to Jeffers here, one was 3/42.  No way. Not even close. Recall Christian Vazquez getting 3/30 from the Twins. My take is 4 years for between 70-75 mil total. 80mil wouldn't surprise me either. The QO should absolutely be extended. I don't however see him taking it. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Anyone here, and it will be dozens of people, complaining they don't have enough good minor league players, who insisted they buy, needs to stop talking next year and reflect....

Who did they trade this year that will come back to bite us? Dasan Hill isn’t exactly blowing the doors off of A+ hitters 

[JADBP]

10 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

This was the price of the deadline gamble so many here cheered for.

I agree that any goodwill that effort supposedly generated is gone and then some if he walks for nothing.  This reality wasn't hard to see coming though and instead of a sound baseball decision we bet Ryan Jeffers value on this team we look at today.

 

right....it was a gamble by the Zoll.  And a stupid one! 

Look at it this way:  suppose we did win a wild card playoff spot.  Just making the postseason is not the goal here and should NOT be a measure of success.  ADVANCING in the playoffs should be our goal.  Building a team that can achieve that should be ZOLL's #1 goal.  Pohlad said he wants to be competitive, sure, we were kinda competitive this year..probably thanks to the change in coaches.  But, we are not good enough to compete in any playoff scenario.  Which playoff teams could we have actually competed with this year?  None.  We probably would have matched up against the NYY, BOS, CLE or HOU....and I doubt we would have been able to put up much of a fight.  

So what was the point of the trade deadline non-deals?  Larnach, Wallner and Jeffers should have been traded.  Probably more.  Those returns would have been better for the team than Jeffers hitting another 10 HR.  We have been fumbling around with losers in the OF all season and it has cost us many games.  Our pitching staff was miserable all season (injuries on SP, and a horrible RP staff) and it cost us many games.  Could some smart trades shored up a couple of these positions?  We could have brought up Emma and/or Jenkins and our OF would have been far better.  

We have been carrying three C's pretty much all season...what the heck for if you didn't trade Jeffers?

Zoll's mishandling of the roster is beyond inane---its insane.  

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, JADBP said:

right....it was a gamble by the Zoll.  And a stupid one! 

Look at it this way:  suppose we did win a wild card playoff spot.  Just making the postseason is not the goal here and should NOT be a measure of success.  ADVANCING in the playoffs should be our goal.  Building a team that can achieve that should be ZOLL's #1 goal.  Pohlad said he wants to be competitive, sure, we were kinda competitive this year..probably thanks to the change in coaches.  But, we are not good enough to compete in any playoff scenario.  Which playoff teams could we have actually competed with this year?  None.  We probably would have matched up against the NYY, BOS, CLE or HOU....and I doubt we would have been able to put up much of a fight.  

So what was the point of the trade deadline non-deals?  Larnach, Wallner and Jeffers should have been traded.  Probably more.  Those returns would have been better for the team than Jeffers hitting another 10 HR.  We have been fumbling around with losers in the OF all season and it has cost us many games.  Our pitching staff was miserable all season (injuries on SP, and a horrible RP staff) and it cost us many games.  Could some smart trades shored up a couple of these positions?  We could have brought up Emma and/or Jenkins and our OF would have been far better.  

We have been carrying three C's pretty much all season...what the heck for if you didn't trade Jeffers?

Zoll's mishandling of the roster is beyond inane---its insane.  

I don't believe Zoll is the one to point the finger at.  The time honored tradition is for our GMs to fall on the sword and say it was them, but time and time again we find out the real culprits are the owners.

It's been this way since at least Ryan if not further back.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Who did they trade this year that will come back to bite us? Dasan Hill isn’t exactly blowing the doors off of A+ hitters 

They didn't add people for Ryan or Jeffers, maybe Larnach. 

[Vanimal46]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

They didn't add people for Ryan or Jeffers, maybe Larnach. 

Sure I agree with that. You made it sound like anyone willing to trade a prospect at all should go sit in a corner and reflect for a year. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sure I agree with that. You made it sound like anyone willing to trade a prospect at all should go sit in a corner and reflect for a year. 

I'm saying people who didn't want to sell are going to complain the Twins need more AA players and AAA players.... Which they'd have if they sold. Likely two or three legit guys. It would be even more had they sold in the off-season. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Who did they trade this year that will come back to bite us? Dasan Hill isn’t exactly blowing the doors off of A+ hitters 

The most likely is Hill who has a 1.2 Whip in high A as a 19 year old.  Lefty’s that strike out 12k per a 9 don’t grow on trees. Amick had a hot streak in AA for the Mets, he could have a Gallo like career. Agbayani is likely a bench player like his dad. The international player is a lottery ticket. He still can’t hit at A ball. Can he have a second year like Fragoza, maybe. The issue is you could have kept those players sold off pieces and been in the lottery one more year then go for it starting next year. 

[Brandon]

If Jeffers is given a QO and he signs with the Yankees, we also get the benefit of the Yankees losing a draft pick.  

If we offer a QO and Jeffers accepts the we trade Cartini and his 7 million contract for a net 16 million budget increase at C.  This is very acceptable to me.  

I expect Jeffers to land a 4 -5 year 17-20 million per season deal.  I expect him to reject the QO and we get another draft pick.  I'm fine either way as I expect the young C to be up in 2028.  We have our current 2027 C on the roster, though it wouldn't surprise me to see if the Twins can find an upgrade of some kind there.  

I also wanted to point out for those saying that buying at this deadline was a mistake.  3 of the 4 pitchers we acquired are expected back next season.  And it wouldn't surprise me to see the Twins offer Minter a 2 year 18 million contract or so and keep him too.  Next season is the year to go for it for the Twins which is why I do think there is a chance Jeffers accepts the QO not a big one but a chance none the less.  

[LastOnePicked]

11 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Next season is the year to go for it for the Twins which is why I do think there is a chance Jeffers accepts the QO not a big one but a chance none the less. 

Imagine you're an MLB catcher - probably the most physically demanding position in all MLB. You're a free agent. Do you accept $23M for a one year deal with a team that has won nothing OR do you accept $60+M in guaranteed money from a team that has a real ability to make a dent in the postseason?

Jeffers isn't even going to consider the QO for a millisecond.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Chembry said:

 

I just don’t think the Twins get as much as most here expect for a 2 month rental that had recently returned from an 8 week IL stint.  But it doesn’t really matter anymore…

Back to the topic at hand, it only makes sense to issue a QO since they didn’t trade him.  I do think Jeffers will get 4/$70-80M range.

Maybe we'll find out some day!  I don't think your stance is unreasonable and it's impossible to know.

Ultimately, we'll have to see how this pans out.

[Greglw3]

I like Brooks Lee as the glue that holds the team together with his gold glove defense at 3rd, bat to ball skills and power, though I wish he was slightly less home run oriented. Lee and Josh Bell. 85 RBIs and the sophisticated approach he takes with men in scoring position put him in a near co-MVP with Lee for me.

However, I think Jeffers may be 3rd most valuable and they absolutely should try to sign him to a 3 year extension. No excuses.

[Linus]

There have been a few suggestions to move him to first. The idea is kind of intriguing- he could play way more games and he may hit even better. He’s not a great defensive catcher anyway although I have no idea if he could play a passable first base