The Twins Are About to Lose Their MVP. They Must Get Something in Return.

[nicksaviking]

I think the Twins are going to make a point to use the exclusive negotiating window to extend (re-sign at that point?) Jeffers. I know a lot of fans who think paying a catcher that much is insane won't like it, but I think once everyone sees how much the other free agents go for this year, that sentiment will simmer down. 

I mean Jazz Chisolm is on EVERY top ten free agent list, often as the top hitter on the board. He's worse than the much maligned Brooks Lee and he's probably going to get closer to 40M per year than 30M. 

The Twins can't base a Jeffers decision on positional historical precedence, they have to base it off of where they'd rank him as a free agent, where he and other free agents would fit on the roster and how likely (unlikely in most cases) the Twins will be in getting any of the free agents they may prefer over Jeffers.

[Danchat]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They also extended Kepler, Polanco, and Sano. How many players have the Brewers extended in the same amount of time? How many players have the Twins had that were worthy of extensions? What percentage of those players did the Twins extend? 

I'd absolutely love to see the Twins do Chourio or Pratt style extensions, but that's not the type of extension we're talking about, and most people around here want players to "prove it" first. How many extensions of proven MLB talent have been done in Milwaukee? Yelich and...?

Beyond Milwaukee, how about Tampa, Cleveland, KC, Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc.? How many established MLB players are they extending? How far off are the miserable failure Twins?

Almost all the deals mentioned are from 5+ years ago, the only one that isn't is the Lopez deal. I don't believe they've extended a single internal player since 2021 other than Lopez unless I'm missing someone... so yeah, I think it's fair to be disappointed by that. When the Kepler/Polanco extensions happened, I was a huge fan and was hoping that we'd see more of that going forward. We simply haven't since 2021.

[MikeNC]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I see no alternative to the qualifying offer.  There has been really poor planning - do you want Caratini and Jackson to be your duo?  I don't.  With the excitement about Lackey keeping Jeffers for one more year might be the bridge to having him step in, but if we are serious about next year Jeffers has to be in the lineup.

The extension that could have been done in past years is not possible anymore - that is on the FO. 

Yeah. Yeah.  Those of us who said trade him at the deadline for a bundle to the drooling Yankees were labeled as "being negative"... No, being a realist is not being negative, it is being smart.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Almost all the deals mentioned are from 5+ years ago, the only one that isn't is the Lopez deal. I don't believe they've extended a single internal player since 2021 other than Lopez unless I'm missing someone... so yeah, I think it's fair to be disappointed by that. When the Kepler/Polanco extensions happened, I was a huge fan and was hoping that we'd see more of that going forward. We simply haven't since 2021.

How many guys have they had worth extending in that time period? I agree it's disappointing, that isn't my argument. My argument is that they aren't some extreme outlier who never extends players, but that they have, in fact, extended players but they've had a pretty extreme lack of extension candidates of late. Who are the big name Twins players who walked for nothing that the Twins failed to extend since 2021?

But the real point I'm trying to make is that it's a ridiculous argument to say that any player who leaves the Twins without an extension is a failure by the FO as if the player doesn't have the option of saying "no." The FO can't force guys to sign deals. And they shouldn't be overpaying to keep people. They've been an extremely flawed FO, but the extension thing isn't something I believe is a good argument against them.

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, gil4 said:

I'm not sure I follow your logic. If the Twins offer the QO and he accepts, it's a 1 year, $23M deal. If he declines, he most likely signs a long-term deal elsewhere, and the Twins receive an extra draft pick.

I don't see either option as unacceptable to the Twins, and that was probably part of the math at the deadline. The pick might be more valuable than the offers they were receiving.

I thank this is probably the correct take. I don't doubt that the Twins received offers for Jeffers at the trade deadline. If they were the offers reported in the press like Volpe and Doval from the Yankees, or even the prospect package of Hess and LaLane, the Twins were better off to reject the offers, play out the chance to sneak into the playoffs, and give the QO to get the draft choice. They are likely to get a better player and gave themselves a chance this year. Now, if they don't extend the QO one has to wonder if they really are Morons. 

[Scott51104]

  4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I see no alternative to the qualifying offer.  There has been really poor planning - do you want Caratini and Jackson to be your duo?  I don't.  With the excitement about Lackey keeping Jeffers for one more year might be the bridge to having him step in, but if we are serious about next year Jeffers has to be in the lineup.

The extension that could have been done in past years is not possible anymore - that is on the FO. 

MikeNC

Yeah. Yeah.  Those of us who said trade him at the deadline for a bundle to the drooling Yankees were labeled as "being negative"... No, being a realist is not being negative, it is being smart.

 

I agree with Mike

[Danchat]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How many guys have they had worth extending in that time period? I agree it's disappointing, that isn't my argument. My argument is that they aren't some extreme outlier who never extends players, but that they have, in fact, extended players but they've had a pretty extreme lack of extension candidates of late. Who are the big name Twins players who walked for nothing that the Twins failed to extend since 2021?

But the real point I'm trying to make is that it's a ridiculous argument to say that any player who leaves the Twins without an extension is a failure by the FO as if the player doesn't have the option of saying "no." The FO can't force guys to sign deals. And they shouldn't be overpaying to keep people. They've been an extremely flawed FO, but the extension thing isn't something I believe is a good argument against them.

As for failure to extend (not let leave for nothing): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, Sonny Gray, Taylor Rogers, Emilio Pagan. Not a long list because this FO has struggled to develop guys, but not being able to retain any of them? You would think having fewer options would mean they have the wallet to afford extending a couple of them.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, LyleCole said:

What is sad is that there has not been one word said, either in the column or the comments, about the Twins signing Ryan Jeffers to a long term deal.   When the fans just assume that the Twins would not even think about offering a contract for Jeffer means we really are not a legitimate MLB franchise.

The market value of Ryan Jeffers in the modern day economics of professional baseball is not extreme.   He will be a catcher turning 30 next season.   A long term deal is 3 years, especially since in his solid contract year he missed almost 2 months of the season with injury.  Online, for what it is worth, the range of this contract is basically $36-45 million for the 3 years.  

Maybe Boras can get him more, but those offers would be more outliers from what the Twins management parameters they should use in their decision making.  And if you look at that range, an organization like the Twins simply cannot offer the Qualifying Offer to a 30 year old catcher.  The compensation value the Twins would receive if he moved on, most likely a Comp B pick (contract under $50 million) is not worth the risk that he takes the $24 million.

Going back to legitimacy, once the Twins decided not to trade Jeffers at the trade deadline into what could have been a lucrative trade market even at rental prices, a legitimate team in MLB would never make that decision IF THEY DID NOT PLAN ON RESIGNING JEFFERS THIS OFFSEASON.

And that should be the plan.  The Twins should offer a very competitive offer for Jeffers to remain a Twin.  3 years, $42 million with a club option 4th year at $16 million.  

We "bought" at the trade deadline and ownership babbles about investing in the team.  So Jeffers should be only the first step in an offseason plan to move the team into competitiveness.  They should target at least a $150 million payroll even though $170 million is what the Twins fans deserve.  

But I doubt the Twins are a legitimate franchise and they will most likely return to their standard practices.

I'd agree with you if I thought you were right about the contract Jeffers likely receives. I just think you're low on years and way low on money. 3 years, $42M with a $16M option is a no brainier for the Twins to offer and I think they will offer at least that, if not more. The problem is I think it is much more likely that he will sign for four years and at least $70 million, maybe as high as $80 million. Frankly, I would offer him three years at an AAV of $20M per, particularly given the lack of other big contracts on the roster. By the way, I think you're right that Ryan doesn't want to stay so he should be traded and Lopez does want to stay so he should be retained by another three or four year deal.

I understand if you think those numbers are high for Jeffers, but I suspect that's because you're not thinking about it the way the big money clubs think about contracts. I suspect you are thinking about this potential contract in the sense of what would we be paying in the future versus what we would be getting his age 33 or 34 season. As someone who lives in LA, I can tell you that's not the way the Dodgers, or the Yankees< Red Sox, Braves, etc., think about contracts. They enter into these long-term deals knowing that the last year or two are likely to be over pays or even situations where the player has effectively no value due to injury or age. They make those offers because that's the price of getting the player in his prime years so they think about a four year $80 million deal for Ryan Jeffers as really paying $80 million for three of those four years, or maybe even two, knowing at least one of those years will be a significant overpay. That's what's having a productive farm system plus additional cash allows you to do; it allows you to overpay certain parts of your roster because you have the extra money and you have a pipeline of young talent to keep your costs down on other parts of your roster. That's the real advantage of being the Dodgers, for example. It's not that you can pay more for prime years, it's that you have the freedom to overpay for down years without it affecting the rest of your roster.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the Twins extend the Q0, then make a three year $42M-$48M offer with a $16 million fourth-year option and a $2 million buyout, and that Jeffers accepts either the QO or the offer. I just don't think that's gonna happen. I think it's almost a certainty that he will get more than $50 million and that he's likely to get a four year deal from another club. If I'm right, extending the Q0 is a no-brainer and I expect the Twins to do so and collect the CB-A comp pick.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Captain John said:

I say no to giving Jeffers a qualifying offer because he obviously wants to test free agency. But a real owner takes that money and uses it to sign a free agent.

An understanding that he wants to test free agency is an argument FOR offering the QO. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

If anyone is dubious of the market for Jeffers in free agency, take a look at the list of other catchers who will be available. He is the youngest and best by a wide margin. And we know from the trade deadline that catchers are in high demand among contenders. I really think a lot of folks are underselling the type of contract he'll be able to land.

Agreed. I think 4/$80M is much closer than a lot of numbers that people have been tossing out. 

People reference Raleigh's AAV of $17.5M as reason Jeffers won't get paid, but you have to consider that contract includes buying out two years of arbitration. He is going to get paid $24.7M for his age 31-33 seasons, and is well on his way to having his age 34 season vested at $20M. Assuming it vests, Raleigh will get 4/$94M for his age 31-34 seasons. 

Jeffers is entering his age 30 season and has two years of salary inflation to add to the conversation.

And to add, Raleigh's experience is an example of why I don't think Jeffers would accept an overpay of just several million for one year to take the QO. Raleigh would be getting significantly less if he was negotiating this offseason compared to when he did. This is Jeffers' best opportunity for guaranteed long-term money.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd absolutely love to see the Twins do Chourio or Pratt style extensions, but that's not the type of extension we're talking about, and most people around here want players to "prove it" first. How many extensions of proven MLB talent have been done in Milwaukee? Yelich and...?

Those are exactly the extensions the Twins are missing out on. Once the player “proves it”, they’re in arbitration already and too expensive.

I would like to see contract extensions for Taj Bradley, Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, and Kaelen Culpepper this offseason.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think the issue at play is the assumption Jeffers is guaranteed to decline the QO. He'll probably decline it, but 2-3 WAR players virtually never get a QO.

I think he's probably in line for 3yrs $40MM to 4yrs $50MM as he's slowly coming back to Earth. A 1yr $23-24MM contract and getting out from under the QO gets Jeffers big value. No more QO's allowed, and 2 years of pay for 1 year of play.

I'd be fine with the Twins offering him an extension for 4yrs so long as it didn't come with a NTC allowing the Twins to move on if the catching prospects make their way up the ladder.

He would have been roughly a 4 WAR player had he not broken his hamate bone.  Jeffers is the only FA catcher anywhere near this level so scarcity will be his friend.  I would guess 4/60.

[JBK]

If he leaves, we're stuck with Caratini for another year as the starter.

[MeleMouth]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't want Jeffers at $24MM. If the QO is an obvious major overpay, you don't offer it.

If a team's "MVP" is a 2-3 WAR player, the team has some issues bigger than trying to hold on to the supposed "MVP"

For this one, the choices are either (1) Jeffers at $24M or a draft pick; or (2) a placeholder talent at catcher in 2027.

Normally, I'd agree that $24M for Jeffers is too much, but you can't look at that decision in isolation and it is better than taking Door #2 with the placeholder talent. That would be the start of another year of hoping to back into the playoffs at 84-78. 

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Why can other teams extend their players but the Twins can’t ever do it? They have extended Lopez, Buxton and Randy Dobnak. Is Minneapolis an undesirable place to spend a career, but Milwaukee is a land of ambrosia and prosperity?

If you had a choice, and if you experienced this organization from the inside, you probably wouldn't want an extension here either. Who would?

I mean, money talks, but all things being equal, I'd want to play for a winner. And I certainly wouldn't give a discount to a billionaire who hasn't ever once paid for an above league average payroll.

[TJSweens]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Agreed. That’s an absurd overpay and Jeffers should accept on the spot. He’s still young enough for a catcher to delay FA one more year for a $24 million pay day. 

On a 1 year contract that can be moved at deadline? It's an overpay, but not an absurd one and I doubt he accepts it. Boras will convince him there is more money to be made on a multi year deal now. 

1 year $23.6M vs 3 years at about $39M or 4 years at about $52M. 

 

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I really think a lot of folks are underselling the type of contract he'll be able to land.

We're an old fanbase. We remember when you could get a HOF CF for just $3M a year. And $2 beers were considered expensive.

[Sampson5]

Hayes has already confirmed that Jeffers will not accept the qo so twins would be effectively giving it to him to not lose him for nothing assuming new cba don't take the option away . Personally think twins should consider extending Jeffers could always trade him later if you have to down the line . Twins ceiling is so much lower without Jeffers all due respect to caratini but he's not a great starting catcher if money is a issue they could easily clear off caratini contract that way there aren't paying both Jeffers & also paying caratini 7 million . Worry about how bad the offense could regress next year with no Jeffers 

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How many guys have they had worth extending in that time period? I agree it's disappointing, that isn't my argument. My argument is that they aren't some extreme outlier who never extends players, but that they have, in fact, extended players but they've had a pretty extreme lack of extension candidates of late. Who are the big name Twins players who walked for nothing that the Twins failed to extend since 2021?

But the real point I'm trying to make is that it's a ridiculous argument to say that any player who leaves the Twins without an extension is a failure by the FO as if the player doesn't have the option of saying "no." The FO can't force guys to sign deals. And they shouldn't be overpaying to keep people. They've been an extremely flawed FO, but the extension thing isn't something I believe is a good argument against them.

1. Sign Mauer to an extension! 2. Mauer is terrible!

1. Sign Josh Donaldson! 2. Donaldson is terrible!

1. Sign Buxton to an extension! 2. Buxton is terrible!

1. Sign Carlos Correa! 2. Correa is terrible!

It surprises me regularly that, for a sport as rich in historical and current data as baseball, so many opinions are based on anecdotes, narratives, mood swings, and the search for a villain.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the Twins are going to make a point to use the exclusive negotiating window to extend (re-sign at that point?) Jeffers. I know a lot of fans who think paying a catcher that much is insane won't like it, but I think once everyone sees how much the other free agents go for this year, that sentiment will simmer down. 

I don't think there's any chance they will sign him. Specifically because I don't think he wants to be here - I think he wants to win. Certainly the Yankees will let it be known that they will match/exceed any offer the Twins make.

It's going to be funny if he gets a 4 year $80M contract elsewhere, and then a salary floor gets put into place, and then suddenly the Twins have to sign a marginal free agent in early March for $20M a year just to reach the salary floor.

[LastOnePicked]

4 minutes ago, Sampson5 said:

could always trade him later if you have to down the line

This year alone is proof that that option is not always possible.

It's not a terrible idea to sign Jeffers, you're right, but it will not happen. With their lowly revenue, the Twins aren't going to outbid any team for anyone.

[MeleMouth]

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

He would have been roughly a 4 WAR player had he not broken his hamate bone.  Jeffers is the only FA catcher anywhere near this level so scarcity will be his friend.  I would guess 4/60.

Going into 2023, coming out of his age 30 season, when he was a 134 wRC+ hitter with poor defensive metrics, Willson Contreras got a 5-year $87.5 million contract ($17.5 per). He also had an iffy reputation as a teammate.

Going into 2027, Jeffers is coming out of his age 29 season, when he has been a 142 wRC+ hitter with adequate defensive metrics. Jeffers has a good reputation as a teammate. Four years of salary inflation later, Jeffers can reasonably expect to do at least as well as Contreras did in 2023.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

As for failure to extend (not let leave for nothing): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, Sonny Gray, Taylor Rogers, Emilio Pagan. Not a long list because this FO has struggled to develop guys, but not being able to retain any of them? You would think having fewer options would mean they have the wallet to afford extending a couple of them.

Taylor Rogers was traded for Emilio Pagan so that's an interesting dynamic. But, that's 4 of 7 relievers. This FO very clearly doesn't believe in paying relievers. And I'm not sure having Jax and Duran with more control really would, or even should, have changed what happened last year. Speaking of Pagan, though, when were they supposed to have extended him before he hit free agency? After his first season when nearly this entire site was calling for him to be non-tendered? He's an awful example of what we're talking about. He was here for 2 years and his first was atrocious. 

Joe Ryan is going to hit the market as a 31 year old starter who collapses in the 2nd half of seasons but will demand a salary as if he doesn't. The Twins got his prime. I have no problem not paying him past his prime on an extension.

The Twins were never going to pay Sonny Gray when they were having their payroll slashed. I'm sorry, but I can't put that on the FO. They really weren't going to pay him 25 a year for his age 34 through 36 seasons. I don't put him in the same category as those other guys. He was a trade acquisition who worked out perfectly.

Jeffers is the one who'd have been nice to get 2 or 3 extra years on for cheap(er). I don't buy any of the other 6.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Those are exactly the extensions the Twins are missing out on. Once the player “proves it”, they’re in arbitration already and too expensive.

I would like to see contract extensions for Taj Bradley, Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, and Kaelen Culpepper this offseason.

Fully on board. Shoot, I'd add a Pratt style extension for Houston to the list. But that is not the same as what people are talking about for Jeffers. Nobody was calling for a Jeffers extension until 2023 at the earliest. When he established himself.

Edited to add: The Bradley deal actually would be more like the Jeffers situation. Nobody was calling for a Taj extension this offseason. Or at least very few would have been. But now he's established and the extension is not so easy to execute. Like not wanting Jeffers extended until he broke out. And then the player can see the massive check at the end of the rainbow. Keaschall is pretty close to this, too.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Going into 2023, coming out of his age 30 season, when he was a 134 wRC+ hitter with poor defensive metrics, Willson Contreras got a 5-year $87.5 million contract ($17.5 per). He also had an iffy reputation as a teammate.

Going into 2027, Jeffers is coming out of his age 29 season, when he has been a 142 wRC+ hitter with adequate defensive metrics. Jeffers has a good reputation as a teammate. Four years of salary inflation later, Jeffers can reasonably expect to do at least as well as Contreras did in 2023.

Seems like a pretty good comp.  A QO is not hard to imagine if the market for Jeffers is similar.

[jkcarew]

Getting a comp pick in the mid-high 30’s is not even close to acceptable compensation for Jeffers, especially given the decisions (and lack thereof) that lead us to this spot.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

How many guys have they had worth extending in that time period? I agree it's disappointing, that isn't my argument. My argument is that they aren't some extreme outlier who never extends players, but that they have, in fact, extended players but they've had a pretty extreme lack of extension candidates of late. Who are the big name Twins players who walked for nothing that the Twins failed to extend since 2021?

But the real point I'm trying to make is that it's a ridiculous argument to say that any player who leaves the Twins without an extension is a failure by the FO as if the player doesn't have the option of saying "no." The FO can't force guys to sign deals. And they shouldn't be overpaying to keep people. They've been an extremely flawed FO, but the extension thing isn't something I believe is a good argument against them.

Sonny Gray. He allegedly was open to remaining in Minnesota and his results have been worth the contract he signed with St. Louis. 

But that was when the Pohlads suddenly realized they're poor or whatever and they simply couldn't afford it. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Sonny Gray. He allegedly was open to remaining in Minnesota and his results have been worth the contract he signed with St. Louis. 

But that was when the Pohlads suddenly realized they're poor or whatever and they simply couldn't afford it. 

Yeah, I addressed him in another post. The FO was never going to spend 25 mil a year on his age 34 through 36 seasons while their payrolls were being slashed. 

He absolutely would've been a nice addition to this team for the last 3 years, but if that's the only guy people can point to, I'm not real impressed with the "FO are failures because they never extend anyone" arguments. Generally speaking, taking 25 mil a year chances on starting pitchers in their mid-30s is not a good investment. Even if that one would've been nice to have next to Ryan, Lopez, et al.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Agreed. I think 4/$80M is much closer than a lot of numbers that people have been tossing out. 

People reference Raleigh's AAV of $17.5M as reason Jeffers won't get paid, but you have to consider that contract includes buying out two years of arbitration. He is going to get paid $24.7M for his age 31-33 seasons, and is well on his way to having his age 34 season vested at $20M. Assuming it vests, Raleigh will get 4/$94M for his age 31-34 seasons. 

Jeffers is entering his age 30 season and has two years of salary inflation to add to the conversation.

And to add, Raleigh's experience is an example of why I don't think Jeffers would accept an overpay of just several million for one year to take the QO. Raleigh would be getting significantly less if he was negotiating this offseason compared to when he did. This is Jeffers' best opportunity for guaranteed long-term money.

I actually don't think Jeffers is good enough of a player to get a 4 year deal, even with catcher scarcity. He MIGHT be a top 10 catcher the last 3 years. He's a solid, dependable starter, not a star. 

Even so, I think he'll get 3 years and up to $66 million. You have to extend a QO, and because of the depressive nature of that you get a better chance to negotiate with him if he declines. 

The Twins just jumped in franchise value from about $1.6B to $2.3B with the sales of the Padres and Angels resetting the market. The Pohlads should use some of that unrecognized value to actually improve the team for the first time in their privileged pathetic lives. 

[NYCTK]

45 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins were never going to pay Sonny Gray when they were having their payroll slashed. I'm sorry, but I can't put that on the FO. They really weren't going to pay him 25 a year for his age 34 through 36 seasons. I don't put him in the same category as those other guys. He was a trade acquisition who worked out perfectly.

Well thank goodness we got a compensatory pick for him. Kyle Debarge is really tearing it up! 

But I think we can agree that the Pohlads were stupid not to allow the front office to resign Gray?