The Twins Are About to Lose Their MVP. They Must Get Something in Return.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Agreed. That’s an absurd overpay and Jeffers should accept on the spot. He’s still young enough for a catcher to delay FA one more year for a $24 million pay day. 

Jeffers and his team have already made it clear they want a long term deal and will turn down the qualifying offer.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

Poor move by our GM(s) to not get an AJ type package for him. If you want to live like the Brewers, Ray's and Guardians...you have to be responsible with your assets. Get Ryan healthy this move and flip him in the off-season 

This is likely wishful thinking.  The AJ type package was a complete fleecing of the Giants and generally speaking, teams don't sign up for that.  Yes.  We would love to have a near hall of fame reliever, a serviceable starter, and an outstanding starter who had a short career for a rental catcher.  Wanting that doesn't make it so.  

[Andy MacPhail]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't want Jeffers at $24MM. If the QO is an obvious major overpay, you don't offer it.

If a team's "MVP" is a 2-3 WAR player, the team has some issues bigger than trying to hold on to the supposed "MVP"

I agree with your premise. '26 is a career season for Jeffers, IMO, Jeffers especially with Boras's consul, Jeffers would turn down a QO, when this could be his best chance to a better long-term deal. If by chance he accepts, it might not be that great of an overpay if the league OKs a high floor.  I say the odds that he accepts an QO is minimal, under these circumstances. I'd do it.

[Patzky]

31 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

He had more value @ the trade deadline. Not trading him was a minor league move. Is ownership positioning to sell the Twins or a World Series win as one can not do both. Fans need to think with their heads not their hearts for a better Twins team as an antique dealer should never fall in love with his inventory.

He was also coming off an injury (that it turned out he recovered from quite well) at that time. Tempered expectations perhaps a smidge.

[SteveLV]

Here's a concept:  Sign him to an extension.  He likes the Twins, so pay the man like he deserves and end all the drama and angst.  He is a good, home-grown player. 

Ryan, on the other hand, wants to go home to California so should be traded in the off season.

And if the FO cannot or will not extend Jeffers, it was criminal negligence not to trade him before the trade deadline this year.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What extension could have been done? Are there reports out there about Jeffers being open to an extension and the Twins refusing to do it? I never understand this stance that the FO screwed up by not doing an extension. The players have free will. They're allowed to say no to any extension offer. The Twins could certainly offer obvious overpays that would give them a good chance at getting the player to sign, but the reason they're called overpays is because they're paying more than they should for the player. Generally, a bad idea.

It's certainly possible I missed, or have forgotten about, reports that Jeffers was begging for an extension and the Twins refused to pay him a reasonable amount. But it's not just automatically the Twins screwing up when there isn't an extension.

Why can other teams extend their players but the Twins can’t ever do it? They have extended Lopez, Buxton and Randy Dobnak. Is Minneapolis an undesirable place to spend a career, but Milwaukee is a land of ambrosia and prosperity?

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Jeffers and his team have already made it clear they want a long term deal and will turn down the qualifying offer.  

Which is a huge favor to the Twins. Take the draft pick and reallocate spending to second base and pitching.

[LyleCole]

What is sad is that there has not been one word said, either in the column or the comments, about the Twins signing Ryan Jeffers to a long term deal.   When the fans just assume that the Twins would not even think about offering a contract for Jeffer means we really are not a legitimate MLB franchise.

The market value of Ryan Jeffers in the modern day economics of professional baseball is not extreme.   He will be a catcher turning 30 next season.   A long term deal is 3 years, especially since in his solid contract year he missed almost 2 months of the season with injury.  Online, for what it is worth, the range of this contract is basically $36-45 million for the 3 years.  

Maybe Boras can get him more, but those offers would be more outliers from what the Twins management parameters they should use in their decision making.  And if you look at that range, an organization like the Twins simply cannot offer the Qualifying Offer to a 30 year old catcher.  The compensation value the Twins would receive if he moved on, most likely a Comp B pick (contract under $50 million) is not worth the risk that he takes the $24 million.

Going back to legitimacy, once the Twins decided not to trade Jeffers at the trade deadline into what could have been a lucrative trade market even at rental prices, a legitimate team in MLB would never make that decision IF THEY DID NOT PLAN ON RESIGNING JEFFERS THIS OFFSEASON.

And that should be the plan.  The Twins should offer a very competitive offer for Jeffers to remain a Twin.  3 years, $42 million with a club option 4th year at $16 million.  

We "bought" at the trade deadline and ownership babbles about investing in the team.  So Jeffers should be only the first step in an offseason plan to move the team into competitiveness.  They should target at least a $150 million payroll even though $170 million is what the Twins fans deserve.  

But I doubt the Twins are a legitimate franchise and they will most likely return to their standard practices.

[Twins GFP]

Lots of arguments against the QO for Jeffers. Not sure I agree with them:

-It might be an overpay, but not the worst overpay in the world. One year deals do not kill you, even this cheap owner.
-Catchers in MiLB are still a few years out. Jeffers plays an important position of need and the Twins know what they have.
-The Twins rolled the dice at the trade deadline and it didn't go as planned. The QO has always seemed like Plan B here.
-The Pohlad public perception rehabilitation tour would be helped by spending salary on a liked and needed player.
 

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

Poor move by our GM(s) to not get an AJ type package for him. If you want to live like the Brewers, Ray's and Guardians...you have to be responsible with your assets. Get Ryan healthy this move and flip him in the off-season 

This... FO malpractice for not trading Jeffers for what would have been much better than a compensatory pick... if that even happens. Look at the return that the other catcher at the deadline brough back (blanking on the name).... Small market teams simply cannot just allow assets to 'expire' without return... but the Twins do!                        

[Captain John]

I say no to giving Jeffers a qualifying offer because he obviously wants to test free agency. But a real owner takes that money and uses it to sign a free agent.

[terrydactyls]

55 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Jeffers and his team have already made it clear they want a long term deal and will turn down the qualifying offer.  

So, I guess that a player's agent has never put out a phony press release?

[Chembry]

36 minutes ago, Trov said:

First, we do not even know if the qualifying offer will be a thing in next CBA, as players want it gone. So it is possible they do get nothing for him.  I said they should have traded him during the season, because our best stretch of wins came while he was on IL.  That may not have been a direct connection, but the point was he was shown to be the "MVP" as we won a higher percent of games with him on IL than off it. 

Now he will go to Yankees for at best a draft comp.  I do not know if there was a good offer out there or not, and I know if he was sent the fans would have said we are selling off. It would have been the type of move that teams like Rays and Cleveland would have done, and this in part how they sustain their winning by making sure they get something in return of assets and never "push all in" like some teams do.  Not like we did that either. 

Point is if you are not going to push all in, then keep maxing assets. Jeffers was at peak value this year, and we could have got something in return.  Now he will walk for best case draft comp, but that may not happen.  It even comes with the risk he signs it, because other teams may not be willing to give him much more than 3 years at like 50 to 60 total.  Most catchers offense falls off a cliff after 30.  Outside the HOF guys, their knees just cannot hold up anymore. He will not be getting any like 5 plus year deals that is for sure. 

The qualifying offer has to be made within 5 days after the world series concludes and players have until Mid-November to accept (roughly 10 days after the QO is made).  The current CBA doesn't expire until December 1st, so the QO still applies to this crop of free agents.  Whether or not the QO is a part of the next CBA doesn't apply.

The QO is a no brainer.  That is the only way it makes sense to keep Jeffers.  However, Gleeman has insinuated that the Twins are viewing the QO more like a 50/50 chance.  Yes, Jeffers was at peak value near the trade deadline, but he had also missed 8 weeks due to the hamate injury.  We don't know what was offered for Jeffers, but several outlets confirmed there was interest in Jeffers.  However, the value you would have received from a 2 month rental that just spent 8 weeks on the IL probably would have disappointed most.  In that case, the value of the comp pick we would get if Jeffers turns down the QO is probably similar to the return we would have received.  

The question is, will Jeffers take the guaranteed 1 year payday of the QO given the uncertainty of the next CBA?  Who knows, but worst case scenario is we have Jeffers on a 1 year short term committment.  He will have to make that decision prior to the current CBA expiring.    

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

So, I guess that a player's agent has never put out a phony press release?

Its not often they go straight to management and tell them they plan to turn down the qualifying offer before hand.  Martin Perez should have turned down the qualifying offer and got a 3 year $50 million deal or higher.   He didn't and he preceeded to get $8 million and 4.5 million in his 2 season following his 1 year deal at 19+ million.   With injuries and underperformance at catcher,  they want to cash in on effectively a near career year.   

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't want Jeffers at $24MM. If the QO is an obvious major overpay, you don't offer it.

If a team's "MVP" is a 2-3 WAR player, the team has some issues bigger than trying to hold on to the supposed "MVP"

Why are you putting "MVP" in quotes? Do you disagree with the premise? I'd probably agree it's not a great sign that their most best player is somewhat who played half the games, but that is indeed the reality. He's been the third-best catcher in baseball and he's the Twins' greatest source of relative advantage, I don't think we need to undersell that.

[Mike Sixel]

Must offer the QO. 

[SteveLV]

I would rather be paying $23M to Jeffers to play C for the Twins than $10M to Correa to play 3B for the Astros.

Just sayin'.

[Nick Nelson]

If anyone is dubious of the market for Jeffers in free agency, take a look at the list of other catchers who will be available. He is the youngest and best by a wide margin. And we know from the trade deadline that catchers are in high demand among contenders. I really think a lot of folks are underselling the type of contract he'll be able to land.

[mickster]

47 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

What is sad is that there has not been one word said, either in the column or the comments, about the Twins signing Ryan Jeffers to a long term deal.   When the fans just assume that the Twins would not even think about offering a contract for Jeffer means we really are not a legitimate MLB franchise.

The market value of Ryan Jeffers in the modern day economics of professional baseball is not extreme.   He will be a catcher turning 30 next season.   A long term deal is 3 years, especially since in his solid contract year he missed almost 2 months of the season with injury.  Online, for what it is worth, the range of this contract is basically $36-45 million for the 3 years.  

Maybe Boras can get him more, but those offers would be more outliers from what the Twins management parameters they should use in their decision making.  And if you look at that range, an organization like the Twins simply cannot offer the Qualifying Offer to a 30 year old catcher.  The compensation value the Twins would receive if he moved on, most likely a Comp B pick (contract under $50 million) is not worth the risk that he takes the $24 million.

Going back to legitimacy, once the Twins decided not to trade Jeffers at the trade deadline into what could have been a lucrative trade market even at rental prices, a legitimate team in MLB would never make that decision IF THEY DID NOT PLAN ON RESIGNING JEFFERS THIS OFFSEASON.

And that should be the plan.  The Twins should offer a very competitive offer for Jeffers to remain a Twin.  3 years, $42 million with a club option 4th year at $16 million.  

We "bought" at the trade deadline and ownership babbles about investing in the team.  So Jeffers should be only the first step in an offseason plan to move the team into competitiveness.  They should target at least a $150 million payroll even though $170 million is what the Twins fans deserve.  

But I doubt the Twins are a legitimate franchise and they will most likely return to their standard practices.

This is absolutely the most important move and should be a priority once the season ends

[William K Johnson]

Imagine Victor Caratini as your primary catcher.

[Dman]

My understanding was that if they weren't trading him at the deadline they were going to offer the QO.  There was reporting at the time that he would turn it down.  Here is one such article.  It makes sense that he would turn down that QO as he is having a career year and being he hasn't really played a full season without a 50/50 platoon split risking another year to injury or ineffectiveness seems like a needless risk.

I don't know what Jeffers market will be as he isn't that great of a defensive catcher.  If it is in the 10 to 12M per year range if I were the Twins I would try and sign him.  If there is a bidding war then just take your draft pick and call it a day.

I am pretty sure they QO him and at minimum get draft compensation.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

If anyone is dubious of the market for Jeffers in free agency, take a look at the list of other catchers who will be available. He is the youngest and best by a wide margin. And we know from the trade deadline that catchers are in high demand among contenders. I really think a lot of folks are underselling the type of contract he'll be able to land.

$60 million is my base case.   I think he actually gets near $80 million.  He has been undervalued by this fanbase in my opinion.  He has solid defense,  great offense, is performing well with challenges actually increasing his value and he has relatively low mileage for a catcher.   His peak should last longer because he hasn't had the abuse most catchers do during the season.  

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Imagine Victor Caratini as your primary catcher.

For 1 year I don't see the big deal.  We have lots of quality catching that should be up by 2028.  Lackey and Diaw both appear to be on track.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

17 minutes ago, Dman said:

My understanding was that if they weren't trading him at the deadline they were going to offer the QO.  There was reporting at the time that he would turn it down.  Here is one such article.  It makes sense that he would turn down that QO as he is having a career year and being he hasn't really played a full season without a 50/50 platoon split risking another year to injury or ineffectiveness seems like a needless risk.

I don't know what Jeffers market will be as he isn't that great of a defensive catcher.  If it is in the 10 to 12M per year range if I were the Twins I would try and sign him.  If there is a bidding war then just take your draft pick and call it a day.

I am pretty sure they QO him and at minimum get draft compensation.

I give him a 5 year offer at 12 million if thats the going rate.  His 5 years of peak value at $60 million and then trade some of the catching prospects we have.   I don't see that as a realistic situation nor do the Twins.  The Jeffers camp is aiming for something much higher than $12 million a year.  

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I give him a 5 year offer at 12 million if thats the going rate.  His 5 years of peak value at $60 million and then trade some of the catching prospects we have.   I don't see that as a realistic situation nor do the Twins.  The Jeffers camp is aiming for something much higher than $12 million a year.  

Agreed he will want more.  How the Twins will be willing to go is the unknown factor. It will be interesting to see what the new CBA brings as far as bargaining power for both sides.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

Here's a concept:  Sign him to an extension.  He likes the Twins, so pay the man like he deserves and end all the drama and angst.  He is a good, home-grown player. 

Ryan, on the other hand, wants to go home to California so should be traded in the off season.

And if the FO cannot or will not extend Jeffers, it was criminal negligence not to trade him before the trade deadline this year.

I am not sure the Twins are his preferred long term destination.  I really think he wants to be on the Yankees and the Yankees want him.  He will go back to his old Catching coach and likely get a bag.      He should have been traded but they can still get decent value in return.  Its why going for it at the deadline was a dumb strategy.  But those goals align more with the Pohlads goal of maximizing sale value rather than the long term goals of the Twins.  

[Patzky]

57 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

I would rather be paying $23M to Jeffers to play C for the Twins than $10M to Correa to play 3B for the Astros.

Just sayin'.

Let's do both?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

27 minutes ago, Dman said:

Agreed he will want more.  How the Twins will be willing to go is the unknown factor. It will be interesting to see what the new CBA brings as far as bargaining power for both sides.

There is talks that a rush of signings could come before the new CBA.   Players will want to lock something in and Teams think there will be cash on the other side.  We could see this resolved in October.  

[PuckettPond]

If finding free agent catchers is difficult the Twins must draft 2 of the top 5 catchers in each draft moving forward. Draft, Develop, Trade for pitching repeating to ensure a healthy stock of valuable assets as every team needs to improve their catching. Yogi Berra was a gentleman & a poet.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Why can other teams extend their players but the Twins can’t ever do it? They have extended Lopez, Buxton and Randy Dobnak. Is Minneapolis an undesirable place to spend a career, but Milwaukee is a land of ambrosia and prosperity?

They also extended Kepler, Polanco, and Sano. How many players have the Brewers extended in the same amount of time? How many players have the Twins had that were worthy of extensions? What percentage of those players did the Twins extend? 

I'd absolutely love to see the Twins do Chourio or Pratt style extensions, but that's not the type of extension we're talking about, and most people around here want players to "prove it" first. How many extensions of proven MLB talent have been done in Milwaukee? Yelich and...?

Beyond Milwaukee, how about Tampa, Cleveland, KC, Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc.? How many established MLB players are they extending? How far off are the miserable extension failure Twins?