Counterpoint: Walker Jenkins is Knocking on the Door, But Twins Shouldn't Open It Yet

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Walker Jenkins has done everything you could ask of him since entering pro ball. The Twins’ first-round draft pick in 2023 and the organization’s top prospect should become a staple in Minnesota’s outfield for several years to come. At just 21 years old, Jenkins is currently slashing .291/.385/.483 at Triple-A St. Paul, good for an .868 OPS. His plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are clearly well beyond his years, and while he might not have 30-homer upside, he has no shortage of in-game power. 

As a result, it seems like all of Twins Territory is clamoring to see Jenkins in the major leagues, and I can’t blame anyone for that. However, I don’t share that belief. And before everyone goes to bury me in the comments, let me explain why.

I think there are a few reasons the Twins should keep Jenkins at St. Paul for (ideally) the rest of the season, or at the very least, until September. Some of those reasons are admittedly more important than others, but when you put them all together, I think the argument for keeping Jenkins in Triple-A is pretty compelling.

For starters, Jenkins is not currently on the Twins’ 40-man roster. That by itself is a relatively minor issue, but it would create an additional roster decision for the Twins to make if they wanted to call him up now. Unless the team places someone currently on the 40-man roster on the 60-day injured list, Minnesota would have to remove someone to make room for Jenkins. That alone probably isn't enough to keep him in the minors, but I think it goes well beyond that.

By calling Jenkins up now, the Twins run the risk of him becoming ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2027. If Jenkins were to win that award, Minnesota would receive a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft pick, which would come immediately after the first round and before the Competitive Balance Round A picks. How much do the Twins care about that? I can’t say, but there is a pretty clear incentive to preserve that possibility. Jenkins can get up to 130 at-bats between now and the end of the season and retain his rookie eligibility for 2027. If he exceeds that threshold, however, he would no longer qualify. Considering Jenkins is already performing at a high level in Triple-A, it would be pretty easy to see him accumulating enough playing time to cross that threshold if he were called up soon.

There’s also the reality that the 2027 season might not be your typical baseball season. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire in December, meaning MLB owners and players will have to agree to a new CBA ahead of next season. Given how much uncertainty there is surrounding future spending rules and the possibility of a work stoppage, the 2027 major-league season could very well be delayed. The minor-league season, however, would not be impacted.

If the Twins bring him up to the majors this season and the 2027 season starts late, that's valuable at-bat and development time that Jenkins could potentially miss out on. He'd be sitting around waiting for the major-league season to begin, instead of getting regular playing time in the minors. If he stays in the minors for the rest of this season, the Twins could bring him up early in 2027 if everything goes according to plan. Again, how much weight the Twins place on that possibility is impossible to know. But at the very least, it’s another potential complication they have to consider.

The last point I’ll mention isn’t really a point. It’s a name, and that name is Emmanuel Rodriguez. Rodriguez and Jenkins have quite a bit in common. Both are talented, left-handed hitting outfielders who have performed extremely well at Triple-A. But they also have some important differences. For starters, Rodriguez is already on the Twins’ 40-man roster, and in addition, he’s out of minor-league options after this season.

Just as Jenkins passed an important deadline Friday when he wasn't recalled within 45 days of the end of the season, eliminating one way he could have lost rookie eligiblity, Rodriguez passed one this week when he exceeded 30 active days on the Saints roster this year. He's now played (technically) five full pro seasons and is not eligible for a fourth option in 2027; the criteria for a full season require only that a player be active for at least 90 days, or be active for 30 days (not counting rehab assignments) and be on the IL (as opposed to the restricted list or in free agency) for another 60 days; Rodriguez has now had five such campaigns. To be saddled with a fourth option year (a benefit to the team, but not the player), a player must have four or fewer seasons meeting those criteria when they exhaust their first three years of being optionable.

If the Twins plan on keeping Rodriguez around beyond next Opening Day—which I don't know for sure that they do—this is essentially his last chance to get his feet wet in the major leagues before potentially being thrust into a much more impactful role next season. It would also be easier for the Twins to bring him up. They wouldn't need to remove someone from the 40-man roster to make room for him, and a potential 2027 work stoppage wouldn't affect his development in the same way, because he can't simply be optioned back to the minors again. If the Twins feel inclined to add an outfielder from Triple-A, I’d rather see them give Rodriguez that opportunity first.

It might not be the most popular take I’ve ever had, but I think keeping Jenkins in the minors is the right move. I don't think there's any reason to rush him this season, especially with so much uncertainty surrounding next year. Jenkins has already done everything the Twins could have asked of him. Another month in St. Paul isn't going to change that. If the 2027 season starts on time (or soon thereafter), the Twins can bring him up early and let him begin his major-league career on their terms. And if that happens, Jenkins should have a very good chance to establish himself as one of the favorites for the 2027 AL Rookie of the Year award. For a player with this much potential, waiting a little longer might ultimately be the best move for everyone.

View full article

[bean5302]

If Jenkins looks the part at the plate and he's hitting the ball like he has been the last couple weeks, another couple weeks of "prove it" is good enough for me. 

[MikeNC]

Meh, bring them both up on Sept. 1.  Just bump a guy off the 40-man.  I don't think we'd miss Mr. Go if he went.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm totally confused.

Does this team see itself in a WC race? Then why would you ever choose to not put your best talent on the field? We're not talking about a hasty AA promotion here. This is a top-tier prospect at the last rung of the minor leagues.

And how is Jenkins being denied MLB service time possibly better for him?

I no longer see this team in a WC race, so I guess any number of explanations for keeping him down to manipulate service time or hope for some weird ROY draft pick to materialize could make sense. That's the patented Twins Way. Nibble your way to occasional fringe success.

But we've been told by ownership that there's a new spirit of "winning now" in the air. This team is struggling to score more than a run or two. Why would you ever leave a weapon on the shelf in the heat of a fight? And why would/should the fans support this?

[Tibs]

I'll meet you in the middle and say we call up both Rodriguez and Jenkins

[PuckettPond]

Let's wait & see how Jenkins & Erod preform in the AFL. I believe both have great potential but injuries have slowed their development & path to the Big Show. They both need more time on the field.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, MikeNC said:

Meh, bring them both up on Sept. 1.  Just bump a guy off the 40-man.  I don't think we'd miss Mr. Go if he went.

Teams virtually always use one of their two extra slots on a pitcher. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm totally confused.

Does this team see itself in a WC race? Then why would you ever choose to not put your best talent on the field? We're not talking about a hasty AA promotion here. This is a top-tier prospect at the last rung of the minor leagues.

And how is Jenkins being denied MLB service time possibly better for him?

I no longer see this team in a WC race, so I guess any number of explanations for keeping him down to manipulate service time or hope for some weird ROY draft pick to materialize could make sense. That's the patented Twins Way. Nibble your way to occasional fringe success.

But we've been told by ownership that there's a new spirit of "winning now" in the air. This team is struggling to score more than a run or two. Why would you ever leave a weapon on the shelf in the heat of a fight? And why would/should the fans support this?

What makes you think Walker Jenkins is better than Joe Benson?

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

What makes you think Walker Jenkins is better than Joe Benson?

Hey, Joe Benson has 17 MLB hits under his belt. Walker Jenkins has zero. Jenkins stinks.

[tony&rodney]

The article completely botches why Jenkins is still in AAA. The Twins decided, for better or worse and much to the joy or chagrin of us hacks on Twins Daily, to run out their veteran lineup in 2026. This meant keeping Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Buxton, Keaschall, Roden in the outfield with Kreidler and Clemens going out there on occasion. The Twins held Ryan, Jeffers, and more for the same reason. The Twins idea was to reach the playoffs. The decision was made by ownership and the front office. Derek Shelton has to shuffle whatever cards he receives.

[TNtwins85]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The article completely botches why Jenkins is still in AAA. The Twins decided, for better or worse and much to the joy or chagrin of us hacks on Twins Daily, to run out their veteran lineup in 2026. This meant keeping Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Buxton, Keaschall, Roden in the outfield with Kreidler and Clemens going out there on occasion. The Twins held Ryan, Jeffers, and more for the same reason. The Twins idea was to reach the playoffs. The decision was made by ownership and the front office. Derek Shelton has to shuffle whatever cards he receives.

This is why neither is up. They simply have too many damn outfielders and especially LH outfielders. Why they didn’t choose to package about 3 of these guys for a rookie ball lotto ticket to clear a path is beyond me. Larnach’s success this year finally gave them the opportunity to move him for something. They almost did. That will be an opportunity lost not only for the Twins in getting something back but also giving Jenkins and Rodriguez a more clear path. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm totally confused.

Does this team see itself in a WC race? Then why would you ever choose to not put your best talent on the field? We're not talking about a hasty AA promotion here. This is a top-tier prospect at the last rung of the minor leagues.

And how is Jenkins being denied MLB service time possibly better for him?

I no longer see this team in a WC race, so I guess any number of explanations for keeping him down to manipulate service time or hope for some weird ROY draft pick to materialize could make sense. That's the patented Twins Way. Nibble your way to occasional fringe success.

But we've been told by ownership that there's a new spirit of "winning now" in the air. This team is struggling to score more than a run or two. Why would you ever leave a weapon on the shelf in the heat of a fight? And why would/should the fans support this?

IF Team is trying “to make a push”, you are absolutely correct. However, they are 60-65 and need to go 23-14 to end up “in the mix” at 83-79. If 83-79 gets them into the Playoffs, to me, would be a minor miracle……..let alone going 23-14. The Twins & Guards are tied for 10th (11th) in the 15 Team American League for real perspective, today.

Jenkins is 21.

Rodriguez is 23 and a habitually injured guy that strikes out way too much.

Wallner is 29 & needs to go somewhere after this season.

40 man spot difficulties are not really difficulties, plenty of options to move someone……………who does the Team move up?

Here’s another question, who thinks that Allen Roden is any sort of long-term option for the Club??? Why is he playing (going forward) if he’s got no chance of sticking in the OF? Is he going to displace Rodriguez in the pecking order going into ‘27?

I can hardly force myself to watch Matt Wallner play MLB. However, if Team is trying to take a flyer on a guy to provide a spark, a desparate guy who’s been there may be the best shot???

[Rufus]

The Twins have an opening on the 40.  Alex Jackson was removed. I agree with he Rodriguez move though.  The Twins need to get an idea of how he would do in the big time.

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, Rufus said:

I agree with he Rodriguez move though.  The Twins need to get an idea of how he would do in the big time.

Perhaps you did not see Seth's comment and similar thoughts from others in other posts regarding Rodriguez. Emmanuel is only a few days back at AAA and his rehab is going ok but, to be clear, EmRod is nowhere near MLB ready right now based just on returning from surgery. Maybe Rodriguez makes sense around Labor Day depending on how he looks between now and then.

[EGFTShaw]

Twins do NOT have the luxury of playing these kind of games.

Either they believe, not you or I, they can make the playoffs or they don't.

If they Do, then they have to put the best players on the rosters to do just that.

As a small market team, normally your counter-point would be valid, but they Twins ownership has blown the Fans' Ship out of the water.

Don't gamble on next year and a ROY + draft pick...

Pull a Two Minute Tommy, and try to win it.

[saviking]

Well written and all reasons I've felt we won't see Jenkins until September.. 

[LastOnePicked]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

enkins is 21.

Rodriguez is 23 and a habitually injured guy that strikes out way too much.

Wallner is 29 & needs to go somewhere after this season.

A rebuild year could have answered many - if not all - of these questions. They're gonna enter the offseason with even more question marks then they left the 2025 season with.

What a waste.

[Cris E]

Not a complete waste.  Let's see...

Fedko is not an answer

Wallner is done here

Lee is a 3b now

Lewis can play 1B

Culpepper can handle SS and the bat.

Clemens can play many places and can hit

Martin and Larnach are largely platoon players.

And that excludes all the pitching learning: Morris will be very good, Rogers is done, Funderburk seems to have arrived, Preilipp is still learning, Bradley has been good but may be tired, building a bullpen on the run takes at least half a year and some money, but it can be done, and so on.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

You missed one other reason to keep Jenkins and Emma in AAA - to see what Roden can do. I think we're going to find out. In today's news; Martin goes to the IL and Jackson is back. That leaves open playing time for Roden AND gives us a chance to see Keaschall in LF, his likely 2027 home, or even back to 2B, God help us. Hey, Roden is hitting 236/.323/.291 (.614) overall in 55 ABs. But, hold on a minute, he's .265/.350/.353 (.703) in his last 34 ABs, and .313/.400/.500 (.900) in his last 16 ABs. I could see the FO thinking, "Why rush Jenkins or Emma up, maybe there's something there with Roden. Let's give him 75-100 more ABs in the last 37 games and see what we got. We can bring Emma up for a taste in a couple of weeks  and see Jenkins in ST, if there is a ST. If there isn't, at least Jenkins get AAA ABs while we wait out the strike/lockout." 

Not what I would do, but defensible. 

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The article completely botches why Jenkins is still in AAA. The Twins decided, for better or worse and much to the joy or chagrin of us hacks on Twins Daily, to run out their veteran lineup in 2026. This meant keeping Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Buxton, Keaschall, Roden in the outfield with Kreidler and Clemens going out there on occasion. The Twins held Ryan, Jeffers, and more for the same reason. The Twins idea was to reach the playoffs. The decision was made by ownership and the front office. Derek Shelton has to shuffle whatever cards he receives.

I think you hit it on the head. However, this was not a Falvey/Zoll decision, IMO.  I think this was an ownership decision based on Tom Pohlad's statements and that Falvey had started down a rebuild path.  I think Falvey told him that changing direction in the middle of a rebuild was the dumbest thing they could possibly do and Pohlad showed him the door.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think you hit it on the head. However, this was not a Falvey/Zoll decision, IMO.  I think this was an ownership decision based on Tom Pohlad's statements and that Falvey had started down a rebuild path.  I think Falvey told him that changing direction in the middle of a rebuild was the dumbest thing they could possibly do and Pohlad showed him the door.

Agreed. 

[weitz41]

Well Sam, Sorry about the Tar and Feathering you'll likely get for this article. Also, hopefully the folks TPing the trees in your yard only leave TP behind...Speaking logic is a recipe for 50+ posts and 1-3 thumbs ups for you when it comes to Jenkins. The frustration boils to the top when he's brought up.

I agree with you for the most part. Just don't tell the angry mob.

[tony&rodney]

The entire way the club has been dealing with its roster has been much a disappointment to me since the close of the 2023 season.