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Posted
Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

 

Box Score
SP: Zebby Matthews - 5 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 4 K (94 pitches, 60 strikes (64% strikes))
Home Runs: None
Top 3 WPA: Alan Roden (0.28), Josh Bell (0.17), Victor Caratini (0.12)
Win Probability Chart

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The Twins entered Wednesday afternoon's series finale against the Orioles needing a win in the worst way. After dropping three straight series, Minnesota had to win the finale to avoid another series loss, and an early deficit against Baltimore made that task even more difficult.

For a while, it looked like the Orioles were going to make things even more uncomfortable. Zebby Matthews struggled to find his rhythm early, allowing Baltimore to build a 4-1 lead by the third inning while forcing the Twins to work from behind once again. But Minnesota responded immediately, putting together a four-run third inning and shutting down any Orioles’ momentum.

The Twins' offense finished with 14 hits, the pitching staff settled down after the early struggles, and Yoendrys Gómez worked out of a ninth-inning jam to secure a 7-5 victory. After another difficult stretch, this was exactly the type of win Minnesota needed.

THE TWINS ANSWERED EVERY TIME BALTIMORE SCORED
The biggest takeaway from Wednesday's game might’ve been how quickly the Twins responded whenever the Orioles grabbed control.

Baltimore opened the scoring in the first inning after Gunnar Henderson walked, Pete Alonso singled and Jackson Holliday reached on a fielder's choice. Minnesota answered immediately in the bottom half, with Trevor Larnach's smart baserunning helping him advance to second on Royce Lewis' deep flyout before Josh Bell brought him home with an RBI single.

Then the Orioles struck again. Dylan Beavers launched a three-run homer in the third inning, turning a 1-1 game into a 4-1 Baltimore lead. The pitch was a two-strike curveball that caught too much of the plate, and Beavers didn't miss it. But the Twins didn't let the deficit linger.

Lewis started the bottom of the third with a double before Bell singled to put runners on the corners. Kody Clemens followed with an RBI single, Brooks Lee kept the rally going with another hit, and Luke Keaschall brought home Bell with a sacrifice fly.

Victor Caratini then tied the game with an RBI single before Alan Roden smoked a ball off the wall in dead-center field, bringing home Lee and giving Minnesota a 5-4 lead. It was a four-run response to Baltimore's three-run inning, and it completely changed the game.

THE OFFENSE KEPT POURING IT ON
Once the Twins finally grabbed the lead, their offense didn't let up.

Minnesota entered the fifth inning with a one-run advantage, but Caratini and Roden quickly put pressure on Baltimore's bullpen. Caratini opened the inning with a long single off the wall in right before Roden followed with a double, putting runners on second and third with nobody out. Trevor Larnach eventually grounded out, but Caratini scored on the play to extend Minnesota's lead to 6-4. Then Lewis came through again.

The Twins' shortstop ripped a splitter down the left-field line for his second double of the afternoon, driving in Roden and pushing the lead to 7-4. Bell finished with three hits, while Roden reached base four times and collected two hits. Lee added multiple hits of his own, and the Twins' lineup finished with 14 hits overall. After a tough night at the plate on Tuesday, Minnesota's offense broke out in a major way when it mattered most.

ZEBBY MATTHEWS BATTLED THROUGH A ROUGH START
Matthews certainly didn't have his best afternoon, but he deserves credit for settling down after a difficult start. The right-hander issued a leadoff walk to Henderson before Alonso singled, immediately putting runners on the corners. Baltimore took the lead on Holliday's fielder's choice, and Matthews needed 22 pitches just to get through the first inning.

Things didn't get much easier in the second. Matthews allowed a pair of two-out singles before finally escaping the inning, pushing his pitch count to 43 through two frames. Then came the three-run homer from Beavers in the third, which put Baltimore ahead 4-1 and brought Matthews to 67 pitches. At that point, Minnesota desperately needed him to find a way to settle down. Luckily, he did.

Matthews retired Baltimore in order in the fourth after allowing a leadoff walk, inducing a 6-4-3 double play in the process. He then worked a quick 1-2-3 fifth inning, exiting after 94 pitches with the Twins still holding a three-run lead.

It wasn't the most efficient outing, and the early command issues put the Twins in a difficult position. But Matthews kept the Orioles from doing any further damage after the third inning, allowing Minnesota's offense to take over.

THE BULLPEN SHUT THE DOOR
Once the Twins built their three-run lead, their bullpen did exactly what it needed to do. Andrew Morris entered in the sixth and immediately delivered a clean inning, striking out Dylan Beavers and Leody Taveras while getting Christian Encarnacion-Strand on a groundout.

Jeff Hoffman followed in the seventh. After striking out Christian Franklin and getting Carlos Narváez to fly out, Hoffman allowed consecutive two-out walks to Henderson and Alonso, bringing Holliday to the plate as the potential tying run.

That's when Kody Clemens made one of the biggest plays of the game. Clemens made a spectacular jumping catch at second base, preventing at least one run from scoring and allowing Hoffman to escape the inning without surrendering the lead.

AJ Minter then delivered a dominant eighth inning, needing only nine pitches to retire the Orioles. All nine pitches were strikes, and he struck out Encarnacion-Strand to finish the frame. That left the ninth to Gómez.

Things got interesting quickly. Taveras launched a leadoff solo homer to right field on the first pitch he saw from Gómez, cutting Minnesota's lead to 7-5. Franklin then worked a walk, putting the tying run on base with nobody out. But Gómez responded.

Pinch-hitter Colton Cowser lined a ball directly back at the right-hander, who caught it before doubling Franklin off first base. Henderson then grounded back to Gómez for the final out, securing the win.

After allowing Baltimore to repeatedly put pressure on them early, the Twins eventually settled in and took control. Their offense provided the big response every time the Orioles threatened, while the bullpen made sure the late lead held up. It won't erase the frustration of three straight series losses, but Minnesota avoided another series defeat and moved to 60-62 on the season.

More importantly, the Twins showed some of the fight that has been missing during their recent struggles. Baltimore landed the first punch, but Minnesota answered every time, and ultimately walked away with a much-needed series-clinching victory.

What’s Next?
The Twins will travel to Dyersville, Iowa to take on the Phillies in the 2026 Field of Dreams game tomorrow night. Taj Bradley will toe the rubber for the good guys, and he’ll face off against veteran right-hander Aaron Nola. First pitch is set for 6:30 PM on Netflix.

Postgame Interviews
Coming soon!

Bullpen Availability Chart 
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Old-Timey Member
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Add in a hit that was coded as an error,  and a game winning triple instead of a single and his OPS is close to .700.  

Which is his AAA OPS minus 200 points….

Posted

If they get decent pitching, they can stay relevant and in the playoff hunt. We’ll know if they still have a shot after Philly and Atlanta. If they can win those series, that sets up the home series with CWS & Tigers. Great to watch games that matter instead of tryouts for prospects/spring training games. 

Posted
36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Which is his AAA OPS minus 200 points….

I think I saw you or someone else mention this in another thread. I thought it was interesting. I also wondered if poor fielders lost 200 point of OPS. When one considers the balls that leak, drop, or get in the gaps when poor defenders are in the field, it might make sense. Since you, in this case, identified a means of comparison between AAA and MLB, can you make a similar case that incorporates fielding to drop the OPS? Just wondering.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I think I saw you or someone else mention this in another thread. I thought it was interesting. I also wondered if poor fielders lost 200 point of OPS. When one considers the balls that leak, drop, or get in the gaps when poor defenders are in the field, it might make sense. Since you, in this case, identified a means of comparison between AAA and MLB, can you make a similar case that incorporates fielding to drop the OPS? Just wondering.

Fielding should translate 1 to 1. Fielding chances are generally not more difficult in AAA. Fielders get about the same number of chances per game. Statcast is installed in AAA parks as well as the Florida State League. The overall spread in talent will be larger in the minors and the average fielder will be worse than the majors. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Fielding should translate 1 to 1. Fielding chances are generally not more difficult in AAA. Fielders get about the same number of chances per game. Statcast is installed in AAA parks as well as the Florida State League. The overall spread in talent will be larger in the minors and the average fielder will be worse than the majors. 

I guess I wondered if you would drop the OPS of several Twins and/or some Saints players who are less than average in the field. Say someone in MLB has a 750 OPS but is a poor fielder, does that (theoretically) drop the OPS to say 650?

Old-Timey Member
Posted
17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I guess I wondered if you would drop the OPS of several Twins and/or some Saints players who are less than average in the field. Say someone in MLB has a 750 OPS but is a poor fielder, does that (theoretically) drop the OPS to say 650?

I wouldn’t combine offensive stats and defensive stats like that. WAR would convert each to offensive and defensive runs above average. Fielders see a +/- of 25 runs versus average over the course of the season. 

Verified Member
Posted

Very important win!!! With Phillies/braves/padres upcoming this was huge!!! All joking aside-if we can go 6-6 or 7-5 I’ll be happy!!! I really think twins can steal division but August is a gauntlet if we can survive this then September will be intense!!! 

Posted
47 minutes ago, Peter said:

Very important win!!! With Phillies/braves/padres upcoming this was huge!!! All joking aside-if we can go 6-6 or 7-5 I’ll be happy!!! I really think twins can steal division but August is a gauntlet if we can survive this then September will be intense!!! 

Go 5-4 or 4-5 in this next stretch of 9 games against tough opponents and then attack against the 3 versus the As and then the important  season-defining run where there are 15 games in a row versus AL Central foes.

Posted
8 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Martin and Roden mentioned going down when Buxton returns and they both have a sensational game recently.

Almost like they are fighting for a roster spot. Crazy...

Posted
18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think we're past the point of "treading water against the good teams." 

Twins need to start a lengthy stretch of winning more than losing. Quite a bit more. And now.

 

If this team actually wants to be a playoff team absolutely. It’s mid August it’s time for a significant winning streak 

Posted
2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Fielding should translate 1 to 1. Fielding chances are generally not more difficult in AAA. Fielders get about the same number of chances per game. Statcast is installed in AAA parks as well as the Florida State League. The overall spread in talent will be larger in the minors and the average fielder will be worse than the majors. 

I am not sure about that. The speed of the game is faster at each level. Each level up inconsistent footwork or poor hands are exposed more with the greater speed of the game. Everyone is playing faster and that last speed of the game step is a huge. Without hard work at the fundamentals adequate play in AAA is no longer adequate in the majors.

Verified Member
Posted

That “hit” to Keaschall in center ahead of the HR needs to be caught and could have really cost us. Also made another awkward catch. I hope they left Jenkins in Iowa to hook up with the big club and play CF. Keaschall needs an offseason of working in the outfield before he’s ready. He’d make a good 4th OF and pinch hitter/runner the remainder of this year. Still believe in him but we have better defensive options at the moment. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, TL said:

That “hit” to Keaschall in center ahead of the HR needs to be caught and could have really cost us. Also made another awkward catch. I hope they left Jenkins in Iowa to hook up with the big club and play CF. Keaschall needs an offseason of working in the outfield before he’s ready. He’d make a good 4th OF and pinch hitter/runner the remainder of this year. Still believe in him but we have better defensive options at the moment. 

It was a tough day for him in the field and the plate. But he's been one of the top 3 hitters on this team since early June. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

But he's been one of the top 3 hitters on this team for the since early June. 

Even longer. Twins batting statistics since May 1:

# Name Team G
 
 
PA
 
 
HR
 
 
R
 
 
RBI
 
 
SB
 
 
BB%
 
 
K%
 
 
ISO
 
 
BABIP
 
 
AVG
 
 
OBP
 
 
SLG
 
 
wOBA
 
 
xwOBA
 
 
wRC+
 
 
BsR
 
 
Off
 
 
Def
 
 
WAR
 
 
1 Gabriel Gonzalez MIN 1 4 0 1 0 0 50.0% 0.0% .000 .500 .500 .750 .500 .571 .422 279 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.1
2 Byron Buxton MIN 53 228 17 34 34 6 7.0% 22.8% .298 .279 .269 .329 .567 .379 .372 145 0.2 12.0 -1.5 1.9
3 Ryan Jeffers MIN 35 144 6 20 20 0 12.5% 15.3% .218 .278 .266 .361 .484 .368 .344 137 -0.9 5.3 1.3 1.2
4 Luke Keaschall MIN 81 310 5 44 20 7 12.3% 14.5% .114 .327 .287 .401 .402 .361 .328 133 0.4 12.1 -6.7 1.7
5 Trevor Larnach MIN 74 272 9 36 33 1 8.1% 17.6% .171 .307 .272 .339 .443 .344 .323 120 0.1 6.5 -3.7 1.3
6 Josh Bell MIN 85 343 13 38 54 1 7.0% 22.2% .190 .303 .259 .313 .449 .331 .325 112 -2.2 2.5 -8.6 0.6
7 Royce Lewis MIN 66 276 10 36 32 9 8.3% 25.0% .190 .308 .254 .319 .444 .330 .321 111 2.4 5.8 -3.2 1.3
8 Alex Jackson MIN 29 69 1 11 5 0 1.4% 33.3% .106 .452 .303 .333 .409 .327 .220 109 -0.3 0.4 -1.6 0.1
9 Kody Clemens MIN 83 342 17 48 47 4 5.3% 21.1% .246 .252 .237 .284 .483 .327 .319 108 1.0 4.4 -1.0 1.6
10 Brooks Lee MIN 86 354 12 40 45 5 7.1% 15.5% .181 .262 .245 .300 .426 .316 .271 101 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.3
11 Victor Caratini MIN 65 230 6 20 25 0 9.6% 22.6% .131 .271 .227 .317 .359 .301 .308 91 -2.1 -4.6 3.5 0.7
12 Kaelen Culpepper MIN 4 17 1 2 2 0 5.9% 35.3% .231 .143 .154 .294 .385 .300 .257 90 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 0.0
13 Orlando Arcia MIN 19 50 1 6 2 0 4.0% 16.0% .083 .308 .271 .300 .354 .290 .245 83 -1.6 -2.6 1.4 0.1
14 Austin Martin MIN 79 244 2 30 16 8 9.8% 18.4% .085 .268 .221 .311 .305 .283 .291 78 -0.7 -6.9 -0.4 0.1
15 Ryan Kreidler MIN 70 191 3 24 21 4 4.7% 20.4% .122 .288 .238 .277 .359 .280 .276 76 -1.4 -6.7 2.4 0.3
16 James Outman MIN 25 41 0 3 3 0 7.3% 43.9% .108 .368 .189 .268 .297 .256 .216 59 -0.4 -2.4 0.3 -0.1
17 Alan Roden MIN 23 61 0 5 9 0 11.5% 14.8% .019 .222 .192 .279 .212 .232 .313 43 0.1 -3.9 -1.4 -0.3
18 Tristan Gray MIN 49 130 1 9 16 2 5.4% 31.5% .058 .296 .207 .246 .264 .229 .239 40 0.1 -8.9 -1.0 -0.5
19 Matt Wallner MIN 7 26 1 2 3 0 0.0% 46.2% .160 .250 .160 .192 .320 .224 .247 37 0.0 -1.9 -1.2 -0.2
20 Kyler Fedko MIN 14 19 0 1 1 0 10.5% 42.1% .000 .000 .000 .105 .000 .073 .166 -68 -0.4 -4.1 -0.1 -0.4
Posted
29 minutes ago, TL said:

That “hit” to Keaschall in center ahead of the HR needs to be caught and could have really cost us. Also made another awkward catch. I hope they left Jenkins in Iowa to hook up with the big club and play CF. Keaschall needs an offseason of working in the outfield before he’s ready. He’d make a good 4th OF and pinch hitter/runner the remainder of this year. Still believe in him but we have better defensive options at the moment. 

You can't take his bat out of the lineup.  He has to play everyday and we have to live with his defense.  He should never have been put in CF when there was another viable option.  But Gray was more important to have up here than Jenkins.

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