Why Marek Houston is the Twins’ Most Underrated Prospect

[mikelink45]

I read these prospect essays and all I can say is - I HOPE SO!

But we have seen so many who were going to be our saviors - Lee, Larnach, Lewis right on the team right now.  All our number one draft picks over the years. MLB wears them down and some anwer the question, some fail, some are just OK.  

So, I wait and see, and like you hope!

[arby58]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Answer this question - would we be happy if Houston got to AAA and hit .250 with 10 HR's in 373 AB's? Interesting question because that's what Noah Miller is doing with the Dodgers AAA team (for some who don't know, we traded Miller for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon - both out of the Twins organization).

Hindsight is always 20-20.

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

1. Houston is exactly the type of player who can become the face of specifically this franchise.  He does not need to hit 25 plus HRs per season to do that.  We are not the Yankees.

2. Would everyone just cool it on calling up Jenkins and/or Culpepper.  With the lockout looming there is no chance that even this front office would risk them not playing team baseball for much of next year.  ERod is the one who must get healthy and be called up.  Wallner too.  Those are the most realistic call up offensive options.

I'm not sure Houston has the personality to be the face of the franchise to the fans, though he's got the stuff to be the face of the franchise in terms of value and recognizable name. Houston has definite All Star and potential fringe MVP potential upside if he can keep hitting.

Joe Mauer was the face of the franchise, but Michael Cuddyer and Brian Dozier were the fan face of the franchise, IMHO.

[HarmonK03]

21 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

2. Would everyone just cool it on calling up Jenkins and/or Culpepper.  With the lockout looming there is no chance that even this front office would risk them not playing team baseball for much of next year.  ERod is the one who must get healthy and be called up.  Wallner too.  Those are the most realistic call up offensive options.

Then why is most every other organization in baseball in the same situation calling up their top prospects.  Why is this organization smarter than everyone else.  This argument just does not hold up when looking around baseball.

[Linus]

I don’t care about rankings. I’m really excited that Houston is hitting. And it’s consistent hitting with some extra base hits. You never know with prospects but so far so good. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure Houston has the personality to be the face of the franchise to the fans, though he's got the stuff to be the face of the franchise in terms of value and recognizable name. Houston has definite All Star and potential fringe MVP potential upside if he can keep hitting.

Joe Mauer was the face of the franchise, but Michael Cuddyer and Brian Dozier were the fan face of the franchise, IMHO.

The last couple of days with camp for the Vikings - if you want a personality go follow Charles Demmings.  I think he may burn out a little bit over time personality wise.  Its a crazy combination - has Preacher vibes, raps freestyle, has a motivational quote of the day, extremely loyal (stayed at Stephen F Austin even with NIL deals saying his team had unfinished business), with aspirational visions of not only himself but his team.   Not only that but he is playing dang well so far.  Top 1% athlete and played in a defense about as similar as you can get to Flores.  Press coverage, blitzing.   

[rdehring]

In response to your headline, Cody, my answer is no he isn't underrated.  That's because I have him #1 in the organization.  Have Lackey and Jenkins next as 2A and 2B.  Why?  A shortstop who is a fantastic defender with speed and a good bat will be the most valuable player on the team, any team.  At least in my opinion.

I haven't seen him play, so my assumption that his defense is at another level is based on reading what others have said since the day he was drafted.  The biggest surprise I have had over the year he has been in the organization is I didn't have a clue he had the speed/instincts to steal 40 bases in two-thirds of a season.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I'm going to stoke the raging impatience on this thread by noting that Houston's elite skills are the type that fade quickly with age. He may be a better defender and baserunner now than he will be at 27.

Given the needs on the big club, bring him up now! (Exaggeration? Mayyybe)

[David HK]

I remember remarking at draft time that it seemed we'd picked the clone of Mark Belanger. 

I'd love me some Mark Belanger at Twins' SS. Any offense would just be gravy. 

That said, I wouldn't mind a touch of Rico Petrocelli, either... 😅 Cripe, I'm old... 

[killercarewoliva]

1 hour ago, Coach Wheels said:

Then put Kriedler in CF, move Keaschall to LF, Larnach to 1st base and Royce can DH.

No bigger disappointment defensively than Royce on this team, in my opinion.

very true. if he made that hesitation wherever he's supposed to have thrown the ball losing the out you could be in a church league softball game and nobody's going to like you.

[David HK]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Answer this question - would we be happy if Houston got to AAA and hit .250 with 10 HR's in 373 AB's? Interesting question because that's what Noah Miller is doing with the Dodgers AAA team (for some who don't know, we traded Miller for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon - both out of the Twins organization).

That trade p*ssed me off. Not as much as Louie, but definitely Dennis Leary level of p*ssed off.

[killercarewoliva]

1 minute ago, David HK said:

That trade p*ssed me off. Not as much as Louie, but definitely Dennis Leary level of p*ssed off.

The Louie trade my heart sank to my feet. I just could not believe it. you got a proven guy who's about to go Superstar and falvey sits in the booth. we love Louie but it was just a deal we just couldn't pass up. Rojas I think is great but Louie is special. how could you be a GM and not realize that? now he has to come back to Minneapolis and mow down his home team

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If I were to re-evaluate Houston this is how I see him

Draft time 

Hit 50  Power 45  Run 55   Arm 55  Field 60  Overall 50

Now 

Hit 60+  Power 50+  Run 60 Arm 55+ Field 60+   Overall  60

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, David HK said:

That trade p*ssed me off. Not as much as Louie, but definitely Dennis Leary level of p*ssed off.

Again we could have picked him up as a rule 5 draft pick this year.  

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Answer this question - would we be happy if Houston got to AAA and hit .250 with 10 HR's in 373 AB's? Interesting question because that's what Noah Miller is doing with the Dodgers AAA team (for some who don't know, we traded Miller for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon - both out of the Twins organization).

I think we'd be very disappointed and it would be signs that the evaluators of Houston coming into the draft were right that he wouldn't be able to be a real MLB hitter, and that his improvements from this season are mostly a mirage (assuming that the rest of the slash line for Houston is similar to Miller).

After this season, the ceiling on Houston definitely looks higher, and if he put up a 7.27 OPS in Saint Paul next season we'd all be thinking that he looks a lot more like a utility guy with a good enough glove to eat the poor offense. I think we'd want better for Houston than that.

The article posits that Houston is underrated, but is that really true? He's now seen as a top 100 prospect who still hasn't actually played a full professional season and had some real and fair questions about his offense to prove. He's answered them very well in 2026, but it's still not even a full season's worth of data. If he finishes out 2026 like this, he'll likely move up the national rankings a bit more...is that unfair?

Right now I feel like Houston is properly rated; if is underrated it ain't by that much and is almost certainly related to people wanting to see the 2026 version for a full season before they start pegging him as a future starting SS with all-star potential.

[DataNerd]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Answer this question - would we be happy if Houston got to AAA and hit .250 with 10 HR's in 373 AB's? Interesting question because that's what Noah Miller is doing with the Dodgers AAA team (for some who don't know, we traded Miller for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon - both out of the Twins organization).

The offense in the PCL is insane, so that line is good enough for an 82 wRC+.  The league ERA is 5.5.  So no, I would not be happy if Houston hit like that in AAA

[Coach Wheels]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If you really want disappointment, play Larnach at first base.

Maybe fair. I've never seen a professional baseball team where no one can be defined with a defensive position. We have a lineup fill with DH's.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Houston ceiling is a better hitting Greg Gagne.  Thats a borderline hall of fame player.  The defense is elite - the hit tool is very very good - he controls his at bats well, the power is improving and he is a menace on the base paths.   His floor was already high.  So yes I think he is a top 25 prospect in my opinion  with a really high floor, and a very high ceiling.  

Look, I love Greg Gagne but we're talking about a zero-time all-star and despite his fine defense there's little argument to say he was ever unfairly passed over. His career OPS+ was 83. A better-hitting Gagne is a borderline all-star; he'd need to be a massively better hitting Gagne to be a borderline Hall of Famer. Andrelton Simmons was a slightly better hitter and significantly better defender and he's not going to get any real consideration for the Hall nor should he despite his absolutely wonderful defense.

Now, if Marek Houston is a better-hitting Greg Gagne and spends 8 seasons as the Twins starting SS providing quality to borderline GG defense along with solid offense and starting legit arguments about whether or not he should be an all-star? I'll be thrilled.

Global Top 25 for Houston seems awfully high...for now. But maybe he really is Dansby Swanson or something, in which case the Twins will look very smart

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Again we could have picked him up as a rule 5 draft pick this year.  

Noah Miller should be available as a six year minor league free agent in December of 2027. I doubt the Dodgers add him to the 40-man roster.

[DocBauer]

I wasn't concerned when he did poorly at CR to end last season. I've just never seen it be uncommon to sit for a few weeks or couple of months, get drafted, report, do well initially, and then slump. It's adapting to daily play as well as getting amped back up again. We basically saw K-Pepper do the same thing. 

I liked his approach and overall athleticism. And he's not a small guy, so I figured some pop/power would come naturally. But I wasn't expecting him to do THIS well so quickly. And performing even better at AA than A+!

Originally I thought he might be ready mid 2027 if everything went well. But I'm starting to wonder if we aren't talking the first third of next season, if not possibly Opening Day. Unexpected, but I don't think it's crazy.

I hear a lot of talk about K-Pepper becoming the next Twins 3B. And I have no doubt he could be good there. But I've been pleased by Lee's play at 3B and it should only get stronger. Wouldn't we prefer the more athletic KC at 2B to create a great DP combo with Houston?

 

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Now, if Marek Houston is a better-hitting Greg Gagne and spends 8 seasons as the Twins starting SS providing quality to borderline GG defense along with solid offense and starting legit arguments about whether or not he should be an all-star? I'll be thrilled.

That’s Brandon Crawford’s career.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

14 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I wasn't concerned when he did poorly at CR to end last season. I've just never seen it be uncommon to sit for a few weeks or couple of months, get drafted, report, do well initially, and then slump. It's adapting to daily play as well as getting amped back up again. We basically saw K-Pepper do the same thing. 

I liked his approach and overall athleticism. And he's not a small guy, so I figured some pop/power would come naturally. But I wasn't expecting him to do THIS well so quickly. And performing even better at AA than A+!

Originally I thought he might be ready mid 2027 if everything went well. But I'm starting to wonder if we aren't talking the first third of next season, if not possibly Opening Day. Unexpected, but I don't think it's crazy.

I hear a lot of talk about K-Pepper becoming the next Twins 3B. And I have no doubt he could be good there. But I've been pleased by Lee's play at 3B and it should only get stronger. Wouldn't we prefer the more athletic KC at 2B to create a great DP combo with Houston?

 

I could really find myself liking a Houston/Culpepper double play combination.   Right now we have the defensively square peg Keaschall and the question is where are we going to find a home for him.  Ultimately I think 2nd will be his home.   I have always been a big Lee fan and I think as a depth piece that plays 50/60% - I think thats the role he will fill out to.  

Here are your options by mid year

3rd Lee,  SS Houston,  2nd Culpepper 1st Lewis/Clemens

or 

3rd Culpepper  SS Houston 2nd Keaschall/Clemens/Lee  1st Lewis

[Mike Sixel]

We're now writing articles that a top fifty or so prospect is under rated?

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Then why is most every other organization in baseball in the same situation calling up their top prospects.  Why is this organization smarter than everyone else.  This argument just does not hold up when looking around baseball.

Lombard was called up. The Twins situation and the Yankee bear little resemblance t each other. Max Clark for Detroit. There have been call up of minor league players on 40 man rosters, but not ones added others than the 2 mentioned.. that is the distinction Ed you missed 

[old nurse]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

We're now writing articles that a top fifty or so prospect is under rated?

Where is he rated as a top 50 prospect?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That’s Brandon Crawford’s career.

I am not sure Crawford and Gagne are that statistically different.  

I just went back and looked.  For body size and type of player,  although I am not expecting this type of career arc or WAR but with his skillset he seems most similar to a Derek Jeter profile.   Started out with some speed,  very good defense,  high batting average/OBP and a little bit of pop.    That would be his peak ceiling.  There is 2 levels and a decade before we see what he did in his career.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We're now writing articles that a top fifty or so prospect is under rated?

Not all places have him as a top 50.  He has gone from a fringe top 10 system prospect to around our #4-#5.  I think he is underrated from his initial year rankings more than anything.  

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Where is he rated as a top 50 prospect?

Or so..... He's 59 on fangraphs, but tied with lots of guys in rating. The top 50 rated guy is 31.....

[saviking]

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Answer this question - would we be happy if Houston got to AAA and hit .250 with 10 HR's in 373 AB's? Interesting question because that's what Noah Miller is doing with the Dodgers AAA team (for some who don't know, we traded Miller for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon - both out of the Twins organization).

Bad trade but we are more than covered at SS now. 

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Lombard was called up. The Twins situation and the Yankee bear little resemblance t each other. Max Clark for Detroit. There have been call up of minor league players on 40 man rosters, but not ones added others than the 2 mentioned.. that is the distinction Ed you missed 

Always an excuse for not calling up rookies.