Week in Review: Break's Over, Crunch Time Begins

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
Last year, the Minnesota Twins came out of the All-Star break with a thud. Chris Paddack coughed up four first-inning runs en route to a 6-4 loss against a Rockies team that was 40 games below .500 — the beginning of the end. This year's second half opened on a very different note, with the Twins taking down a Cubs team that was 10 games above .500 in a crisply played 5-2 victory. Minnesota's 48th win finally got them back to the .500 mark, a milestone they've been chasing since April. 

They didn't stay there for long. The Twins dropped the second and third games at Wrigley, including an ugly blowout loss on Sunday, closing out the week with a 49-51 record through 100 games. Still, taking one of three against a quality Cubs team is hardly a disastrous outcome, and the Twins now head to Cleveland for a key four-game set against a Guardians team just three games ahead of them in the AL Central standings. With the trade deadline only two weeks away, every game looms large.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/13 through Sun, 7/19
***
Record Last Week: 1-2 (Overall: 49-51)
Run Differential Last Week: -10 (Overall: -24)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.0 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 98 | Twins 5, Cubs 2: Ober Gets It Done Again, Jeffers Delivers Big Homer

• Jeffers: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI

Game 99 | Cubs 6, Twins 2: Clemens Supplies Sole Offense as Bradley Struggles

• Bradley: 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 7 K

Game 100 | Cubs 10, Twins 1: Matthews Crushed by Cubs in Rubber Match Blowout

• Matthews: 3 IP, 10 R (8 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K

NEWS & NOTES

Cole Sands looks to be nearing a return from an injured list stint that has cost him nearly half the season. After having his rehab moved to the FCL during the All-Star break, he reported back to Triple-A over the weekend, throwing two scoreless innings for the Saints on Friday. Sands struck out three with one walk and one hit allowed, throwing 35 pitches as he ramps back up toward readiness. As long as he's feeling good, I'd expect Sands to be activated within the next week. 

Garrett Acton is fairly deep into his own rehab and on track to be activated soon, although it's not as clear he'll be added right back onto the big-league roster. Marco Raya also started a rehab assignment, less than 10 days after going on the IL with a shoulder impingement, suggesting the injury is (hopefully) not too serious. 

Connor Prielipp, who went on the IL shortly before the break due to a blister, pitched three scoreless innings for the Saints on Sunday. I'd expect his next appearance to come with the Twins. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Before he went down with a fractured hamate in mid-May, Ryan Jeffers had a reasonable case for being the Twins MVP, which is saying a lot for a team that also boasts an All-Star center fielder and #1 starter. In just a handful of games since being activated, he has wasted no time reminding us all of just how impactful he can be. 

Jeffers notched a key two-run double in the final game before the All-Star break and then launched a three-run homer in the first game coming out. His third-inning shot off Colin Rea on Friday proved to be the difference in a three-run victory. Jeffers owns a .409 wOBA on the season, putting him in the realm of the greatest offensive seasons we've ever seen from Twins catchers. Mitch Garver had a .404 wOBA in 2019, and Joe Mauer had a .438 wOBA in his MVP 2009 season. We've been blessed to watch some truly marvelous hitting performances from catchers in Twins uniforms, and hopefully there's more of that to come with Vahn Lackey entering the pipeline. (The top draft pick has already reportedly agreed to terms.)

 

One of the most positive developments of this season is how well Luke Keaschall has taken to the outfield. He was struggling mightily in the field at second base and seemed to be taking it to the plate with him, posting a meager .663 OPS at the position. Since shifting to the grass, he's looked much more natural defensively and his bat has come to life. Keaschall is hitting .347 as an outfielder and his prowess was on full display on Friday, when he picked up two hits and a walk while making multiple spectacular plays in center field. (He also made a very non-spectacular play in center on Sunday, reminding us that he still needs some refinement out there despite the flashes of ability.)

 

Bailey Ober delivered a strong start to open the second half, holding Chicago to two runs over 5 ⅓ innings, and the bullpen shut things down from there with Tommy Nance, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez teaming up to get the last 11 outs with zero runs and one hit allowed. Gómez picked up his 12th save in as many tries while Morris lowered his ERA to 3.26 with a 16th consecutive scoreless appearance. 

Twins relievers continued to put in good work the rest of the weekend, with Mike Paredes, Kendry Rojas, Travis Adams, Kody Funderburk and Woo-Suk Go holding the Cubs to one run in eight frames between Saturday and Sunday. The Twins bullpen has a collective 2.25 ERA here in July, ranking among the league's best after posting an MLB-worst 6.94 mark in June. And they're on the verge of getting back Sands, which could be big if he can get back to anything resembling his 2024 form.

LOWLIGHTS

Not such good work from the Minnesota rotation over the remainder of the weekend. Twins starters didn't give the team much of a chance to win this series after Ober's solid effort in game one. Taj Bradley hit a bump in the road on Saturday, allowing five earned runs allowed over five innings to halt his hot streak, and Zebby Matthews totally unraveled on Sunday, surrendering 10 runs (eight earned) in three innings of work. It's been a rough month of July for Matthews, who's been tagged for 16 earned runs in 13 ⅔ innings with nine walks and 12 strikeouts. Very disappointing to see after the righty seemed to be settling into a groove in June. 

Despite digging an early hole on Saturday, the Twins had a chance to mount a threat late. They had a rally brewing in the ninth inning before a volley of baserunning blunders blotted out their hopes for a thrilling comeback. Down 5-1, the offense produced three consecutive hits to open the final frame and then ... this happened:

 

It was a glaring display of a blatant shortcoming on this roster: speed. The three players on base during this debacle — Josh Bell, Victor Caratini and Brooks Lee — are all extremely slow, and it showed here. For a team hoping to scrap its way into unlikely contention, these types of executional meltdowns can not really be afforded. In general, the plodding Twins are getting dusted on the bases, with opponents going 13-for-15 on steals over the past month while Minnesota's gone 8-for-16. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

Byron Buxton was not ready to return to the roster coming out of the break, despite being eligible 10 days after landing on the injured list. That makes it official that this flare-up of his hip injury is more serious than those that sidelined him for a few days in the past. With that said, it doesn't look like Buxton is too far off from re-entering the fold. Dan Hayes of The Athletic snapped footage of the sidelined center fielder performing various on-field baseball activities ahead of Friday's game, and Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that Buxton is likely to rejoin the active roster in Cleveland.

 

The Twins face important decisions with Buxton moving forward. He's their best player and their leader, pivotal to their chances of mounting a charge in the second half. But this hip thing does not seem to be going away. The team needs to be very careful in handling him and maximizing his chances of staying on the field. 

Maybe that contributed to the decision to keep him out of action in Chicago. When he does come back, as soon as Monday, it would probably behoove the team to incorporate some preventative measures. Fewer steal attempts is a given. Maybe more action at DH? That's easier said than done with Bell occupying the position full-time.

Buxton's absence from the lineup has been noticeable for a Twins team that his totaled just six home runs in nine games since he last played. They need him to get back in the lineup and stay there. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Big, big series in Cleveland on tap. The Twins will open with their ace, Joe Ryan, who is fresh off throwing a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game. They'll also throw Ober and Bradley in the series; it's anyone's guess who will get the nod on Tuesday, which could end up being a bullpen game. Prielipp should presumably be back to start in the second open spot on Sunday.

MONDAY, JULY 20: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Tanner Bibee
TUESDAY, JULY 21: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — TBD v. LHP Parker Messick
WEDNESDAY, JULY 22: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Slade Cecconi
THURSDAY, JULY 23: TWINS @ GUARDIANS — RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Gavin Williams
FRIDAY, JULY 24: ATHLETICS @ TWINS — RHP J.T. Ginn v. RHP Zebby Matthews
SATURDAY, JULY 25: ATHLETICS @ TWINS — LHP Jacob Lopez v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, JULY 26: ATHLETICS @ TWINS — LHP Jeffrey Springs v. TBD

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[tony&rodney]

The Twins need to play fundamental baseball, show patience when needed at the plate, and get good pitching. Attention to small details are important. 

A couple of simple examples: Lee could have played back one or two steps against Suzuki - just a small thing. Matthews cannot groove two strike pitches. I know he wasn't trying to do that but he seemed overly nervous once he got to two strikes, either missing badly with non competitive pitches or grooving one right for the barrel. 

Hopefully the Twins keep it simple.

[thelanges5]

Twins face 3 LHP this week. On the season, they are 12-18 when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. 

[ashbury]

I can't let that explanation of the ninth inning double play on Saturday pass.  It had nothing to do with Josh Bell's running speed and everything to do with fundamental base running. 

Lee ought to have been more situationally aware as well, but Bell owned the situation in the first place. 

Kudos to Caratini for not straying and getting tagged out on the same play, I suppose.  🥳

[mrguy]

As expected, the twins bullpen has began trending upward now that we've ended the era of running guys like Lawrence, Orze, and who else we hopefully won't have to think about anymore and started letting younger options carve out their own roles. While I still like some of them as starter options, it's still better they get the opportunities in that relief role. If we had a more rock solid starting rotation, this pitching staff would be very nice. 

[FlyingFinn]

45 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Lee ought to have been more situationally aware as well,

Is it on him or the 1st base coach. Lee hits the ball hard. As he runs to first, he is watching if it lands and where it ends up if it does. Wouldn't the 1st base coach be the one responsible for telling him to stop at first as he should have his eyes at least somewhat on the runners in front of Lee? Curious what everyone thinks.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I can't let that explanation of the ninth inning double play on Saturday pass.  It had nothing to do with Josh Bell's running speed and everything to do with fundamental base running. 

Lee ought to have been more situationally aware as well, but Bell owned the situation in the first place. 

Kudos to Caratini for not straying and getting tagged out on the same play, I suppose.  🥳

I didn't mean to imply it was anything more than a mental mistake. But just trying to say, more broadly, that it's the kind of thing that can happen when you've got a team full of slow, bad baserunners. 

[Blyleven2011]

Glad to have our twins back playing baseball ...

Taking one game from the cubbies a contender in Wrigleyville was all I was expecting , but the last two games of the series WOW-ZER ...

Saturday's ninth inning blunders still digs deep , a rally brewing and snuffed out by bad base running ...

Now today's game was just awful  , you can't give the opponent's extra outs , extra bases and runs , as most will agree the twins need to play flawless baseball to win , this should be emphasized ...

I have enjoyed watching this team this year but this loss it seemed everyone contributed to it  ,        WOW-ZER  ...

No double digit hits from from the line up , Matthew's game ( listened on radio ) , couldn't put them away ... 

Good news of the week in reviewing our #1 draft choice signed , get him to high A and see if he's as good as projections, fast track him to the majors by 2028  ...

 

[Hunter4848]

In the hunt for a playoff spot and Buxton is no where to be seen...

 

[Peter]

Last 2 games were ugly! Glad that’s done with! Huge series with Cleveland-if we split I’ll be happy then it’s A’s in which we should take 2 if not all 3 same with royals. Need to get back to winning and reclaim division which I think we will win

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Is it on him or the 1st base coach. Lee hits the ball hard. As he runs to first, he is watching if it lands and where it ends up if it does. Wouldn't the 1st base coach be the one responsible for telling him to stop at first as he should have his eyes at least somewhat on the runners in front of Lee? Curious what everyone thinks.

I was also wondering what sort of role the base coaches had in this mishap. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

2 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

In the hunt for a playoff spot and Buxton is no where to be seen...

 

Getting Buxton back in the starting lineup will be a huge positive for this team. 

[Saxophone Joe]

11 hours ago, mrguy said:

If we had a more rock solid starting rotation, this pitching staff would be very nice. 

I suppose it's progress of sorts that we've moved on from "If only we didn't have a terrible bullpen...";)

Seriously though, if either Pablo and Abel were available to stabilize the rotation, no question we'd be in a much better position. So it goes...

Crucial week ahead, needless to say. Will I be watching Joe Ryan's last start as a Twin Saturday on Puckett Jersey Day? My wife's named after Kirby, so I'm very excited for that game, regardless of where we are in the standings. Go Twins! 

[Saxophone Joe]

3 hours ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

I was also wondering what sort of role the base coaches had in this mishap. 

I would greatly appreciate an honest, educational, multi-camera breakdown on just what the hell happened from someone like Paul Molitor who's not going to needlessly throw anyone under the bus. It's a teachable moment on the basepath if there ever was one, for both the players and base coaches. And the fans who were pulling their hair out watching it live! 

[Andy MacPhail]

I'm looking forward to Prielipp & especially Buxton coming back. Losing 2 out of 3 with the Cubbies w/o Buxton doesn't surprise me. 

[twinfan]

These next 4 games are huge. We hope for a split or a 3-1 series win. If we go 0-4, it may be time to look at some deals. Cleveland doesn't score and is missing one of the best players in baseball. We miss Bux but have held our own. Hopefully Bradley can bounce back. Let's Go Twins

[Nshore]

Sonny Gray is 12 and 1 for the Red Sox.  He'd look pretty good in the Twins' rotation.  Letting him go was a more significant blunder than signing Carlos Correa IMO.  Instead, they're sending out 8th round pick Zebby Matthews against the Cubs and hoping he becomes a pitcher some day.

[mnfireman]

A needed split against CLE just became a needed 3-1 series win, even with a potential 4-2 homestand against ATH and KC. 

The Cubs are a solid team, but the Twins played like a beer-league softball team after Friday's win; bad PAs, bad baserunning, bad fielding, and bad SP.

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

A needed split against CLE just became a needed 3-1 series win, even with a potential 4-2 homestand against ATH and KC. 

The Cubs are a solid team, but the Twins played like a beer-league softball team after Friday's win; bad PAs, bad baserunning, bad fielding, and bad SP.

Yep. Need to win this series against Cleveland. And we could benefit from the Cubs staying hot against the Tigers. 

[Vanimal46]

If the goal is to push for a playoff spot, then starting pitching just flew up to #1 on the priority list. Zebby is really showing his warts this month. Paredes is getting by on smoke and mirrors (the peripheral numbers look really bad), and Rojas can barely find the strike zone. 

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I didn't mean to imply it was anything more than a mental mistake. But just trying to say, more broadly, that it's the kind of thing that can happen when you've got a team full of slow, bad baserunners. 

Down 2-6 with zero outs in last inning, the Twins need to be conservative. The runners are not tagging and only go about 30 feet off the bag (because they are slow). A fast runner scores from second base but the ball doesn't get far enough away for Bell to score or for Caratini to get to third base. The irony of the play is that Lee is also slow and he was smoking around first base as if .....

Catchers and many DH types are often pretty slow. That said, I'm all in on the Twins focusing much more narrowly on speedy defensive players who can also hit. The current model was featured in that awkward 9th inning play, PCA.

[LambchoP]

We need a dependable SP and one, if not two late inning RP. 

[thelanges5]

18 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

We need a dependable SP and one, if not two late inning RP. 

[Vanimal46]

36 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

It could be, but doesn't have to be. If the Cleveland series goes in our favor, then I'd be looking for a rental back of the rotation SP like Robby Ray or Brady Singer. The 2 late inning type bullpen arms could also be rental players like Kirby Yates or AJ Minter who won't cost anything more than a borderline 20 ish org prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton back. Gray down. Excellent choice!

[Major League Ready]

I can't get too excited about any trade because the next 10 games could make a pretty big difference on what makes sense.   However, there is no scenario where I would give up a top 5 prospect to "take a shot" with this team.

[h2oface]

Managers, front offices, writers , and fans all like to point out “series wins” as a benchmark of good sold play and team improvement, and it is. But that takes months to correct for even being just 8 games under .500. Then the Twins lose just the first series in the last six, and they are still 2 games under .500. Meanwhile, winning streaks by the Red Sox and Orioles, and a 24-14 stretch by the Tigers make 2-1 series wins quite unspectacular. This team needs this years 12 game winning streak, and right now.  2-1 series wins, while always welcome, are quite unspectacular comparatively, and will not cut it with just 62 games to play. 
 

And no more defensive and base running clown shows like the last two games. 

[MGX]

8 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

In the hunt for a playoff spot and Buxton is no where to be seen...

 

You do realize the Twins are where they are based on what they've done all season long. I'm pretty sure Buxton has been seen quite a bit in what the Twins have done this season. 

[Hunter4848]

3 hours ago, MGX said:

You do realize the Twins are where they are based on what they've done all season long. I'm pretty sure Buxton has been seen quite a bit in what the Twins have done this season. 

Its just a trend thats been going on his entire career, and he never plays through any of these injuries...

[Hunter4848]

4 hours ago, MGX said:

You do realize the Twins are where they are based on what they've done all season long. I'm pretty sure Buxton has been seen quite a bit in what the Twins have done this season. 

He's a soft player, always has been