Tom Pohlad Said "Go Big or Go Home." Now He Needs to Actually Choose.

[Brandon]

50 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

I think they should wait before going all in, one way or another, until July 23. They will have completed two series with Cleveland and one with the Cubs. If they are competitive and have a winning record through this stretch of games, then they have a shot at the playoffs. If not, then playoff hopes are dashed and start selling to prepare for 2027 and beyond. It would be great if they could swing a “small” trade right now to boost the BP for this critical stretch (Wook Suk Go signing notwithstanding). Give them some arms to take down Cleveland. 
In no way should a team with a chance at the playoffs in today’s baseball world be sellers. Any team can get hot at the right time and make a deep run. Like Tug McGraw said, “ You gotta believe!” 

Better idea.  Make a trade or two now and if we fall in the standings we sell the new guys at the deadline but we pushed in before..... reinforcements would be nice to have for the two Cleveland series.

[CRF]

47 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Go Suk Woo.

He's probably available too!

[Brandon]

Guys we have the offense.  A trade for Skuball and Sonny Gray and Chapman for the pen with Preliepp going to the pen after these trades and that would cost some prospects and some cash but we would be all in with a great rotation and good offense and better pen.  

Now saying that, I would be happy if they just traded for 2 average relievers 

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, Brandon said:

A trade for Skuball

So Jenkins and Culpepper or Prielipp for Skubal? We get Tarik for 2 months.

I suggested something last winter that was blasted - Joe Ryan, Alan Roden, and Charlee Soto for Max Clark.

I cannot believe the Twins can pull off a Skubal trade; not worth it.

Sonny Gray and Chapman can be had for something like Dasan Hill plus something bigger (?Royce?).

[mnfireman]

8 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Welp, here goes Jim Bowden again...

"...if I were [the Twins], I would see what I could get for Joe Ryan, Taylor Rogers, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, Tristan Gray, Victor Caratini and Josh Bell. I would even talk to Byron Buxton to see if he would waive his no-trade clause if I could deal him to either the Braves or Yankees.

 

Ryan as the "best fit" for the Braves, Lewis for the Marlins, Jeffers for the Yankees. His next paragraph is on the Royals. I'm surprised he didn't mention that Witt could get them a haul. 

There's that non-existent East Coast Bias again.... 

[Brandon]

56 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

So Jenkins and Culpepper or Prielipp for Skubal? We get Tarik for 2 months.

I suggested something last winter that was blasted - Joe Ryan, Alan Roden, and Charlee Soto for Max Clark.

I cannot believe the Twins can pull off a Skubal trade; not worth it.

Sonny Gray and Chapman can be had for something like Dasan Hill plus something bigger (?Royce?).

It would be fun to see the Twins empty the minor leagues to go all in.  Especially if we win the world series.  But we would be in for a long rebuild if we did this.  

I'm just posting crazy thoughts. My expectations are two relievers with one being elite for best case scenario.  

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Guys we have the offense.  A trade for Skuball and Sonny Gray and Chapman for the pen with Preliepp going to the pen after these trades and that would cost some prospects and some cash but we would be all in with a great rotation and good offense and better pen.  

Now saying that, I would be happy if they just traded for 2 average relievers 

[amjgt]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Brace yourself for the "Disagrees," because you are going to get them. I sure have when I've broached the idea of a QO on Jeffers. 😀

.   

I don’t mind people disagreeing. I understand that I’m probably on the wrong side of a 25/75 proposition. But I think it’s an interesting thought exercise and has some very intriguing nuances to it.

I just wish more people would respond with why they disagree rather than just slapping the down thumb on it and moving along. Just down-thumbing something is lame, in my opinion. The only posts I really ever down thumb are offensive/inappropriate stuff. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

13 hours ago, Dman said:

It's a bit premature to go either way right now, but as they approach a .500 record it will be hard to see them as sellers.  Cleveland has been a house of horrors for this team and they are playing really well.  If the Twins manage to take that series I'd say things bode well for them to the deadline. Still right after the Deadline they face the Cubs and Cleveland so if they come out slow it will dampen their chances.

As for what they would need if buyers it seems like pen help would be the most needed.  I don't think I would mess with the hitters as most all of them have been producing and they are a tight group.  Don't mess with what is working.

While given the injuries they might need a rotation arm I'd resist doing that as the price is so steep.  Just getting a pen arm or two at the deadline is going to be an overpay, but I think they'd get the most bang for their buck getting a shut down pen arm and another arm better than what they currently have.  It's possible they could Trade Jeffers for a legit pen arm or an arm at AAA that is close to ready from another team.

We'll see how things shake out.  They have to get to .500 or close to it first.

I agree with everything except Jeffers will not bring a bullpen guy. Any team that wants 2 months of Jeffers must be competing for the playoffs, and therefore will not trade any bullpen pitcher, since the team is competing for the playoffs.

[TL]

13 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

If he doesn't, we don't know what a new CBA will do to the concept of comp picks, but in the current structure, there's a pretty decent chance Jeffers signs elsewhere for more than $50M total. Again, I may be underestimating Jeffers' worth, but I'm not sure a comp pick is much of a downgrade from what they will get for 33 games of him in a trade (see previous note for the explanation on why I say 33 games).

I think this is the right way to think about it. If someone gives up a top 50 prospect, take it. Otherwise get the comp pick or one more year at a bit of an overpay. We may even need to overpay to get to a salary floor. 

[TL]

To me trading Larnach and Martin for bullpen help makes the most sense. Larnach has been great but I really think one or two of Roden/Jenkins/Emma will equal his contribution given their far superior defense and comparable on-base skills, even if early in their careers they don’t quite equal his offensive production. Martin would perhaps need to be pared with a lower level minor leaguer in a trade but he plays a good OF and still has some potential - and Keaschall/Clemens make him unnecessary. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I don't know what the Twins will do...but, if Tom P. is at the helm for another sell-off in August after his bluster about being a 'contender' - that, coupled with the looming work stoppage - future attendance at Target Field will make 2026 look good. 

[Dman]

15 hours ago, amjgt said:

And I’ll keep beating the “we might just give Jeffers the QO” drum, even though most people dismiss it out of hand. 

People seem to think that he’ll automatically accept it. Perhaps, but here’s two things worth thinking about:

1) A high end catcher on a 1 year deal (even if it’s 23m) has value. I’d guess the Yankees would be more than happy with that this year.

2) With a lockout it might not be $23M. That matters more than just “we actually only owe him $15m for the 2/3rds of the season that actually gets played. The bigger impact is on whether Jeffers accepts the QO. At $23M he might think that the big AAV is worth the risks of 1 more year of wear and tear on his body before he hits free agency. But if that $23M get prorated, then the idea of locking in for 4 more seasons at like $15M per sounds a lot more appealing because his actual earning potential on a QO might actually only be $15M anyway (or something close to it)

Because of those two things not only do I think that having him accept the QO might not be such a bad thing, but also I think it’s probably less likely that he accepts it than people think. 

This also falls under the category of “we’ll know more in 22 games” because if he’s looking anything like his pre-injury self, I think a QO is better than a 50/50 chance. And if you think you might be giving him a QO, then that has a big impact on what you do with him (or Caratini - who might all of sudden become tradable) at the deadline

I'd say the reason the Twins wouldn't QO Jeffers is the risk involved both ways.  

First let's say you QO him and he opts out.  Are you sure he is going to get an Offer over 50M?  If he gets a three year 15 or 16M AAV he falls short of first round compensation and falls to a late second round pick.  While that's still decent compensation the Twins don't have a great history of those picks working out all that well.  If they trade him at the deadline they likely get a proven player who has worked their way through the system with better odds of making it.

Second let's say he accepts the QO now you have over 30M tied up in catchers about 25% of your entire payroll to a position most small market teams can't afford.  And you are adding him to what purpose? To let him leave the next year or to negotiate an extension? He has said he wants to go to market so nothing but an overpay would likely accomplish an extension.  If you did get him to sign, it would likely have to be for top catcher money so around 20M AAV.  Is that something the Twins can afford?  Is that the best use of their finite budgeted assets?

Part two of this is if they plan to keep Jeffers they can't keep all three catchers someone has to go.  Right now Caratini is coming off a 1.050 OPS month which is equal to what Jeffers was doing before being injured and he only costs 7M next year.  Do you want to pay 13M more for Jeffers next year? If you trade Caratini and Jeffers walks after the QO what are doing at catcher next year?

Bottom line for a team that is as money conscious as the Twins I don't see them wading into the uncertainty of what Jeffers might decide at the end of the year and what that might cost them. I'd think the preference for them would be that they control the situation and IMO that means trading Jeffers.

[The Great Hambino]

I'm preparing for a deadline with very little activity from the Twins.

They're not gonna sell because they think they're competitive - and in the context of this rotten version of the AL, they actually might be if you squint hard enough (and depending on your definition of "competitive").  

But they're not gonna meaningfully buy either.  It will be a seller's market with so few teams truly out of contention, and I think all the uncertainty about the future regarding the CBA will cause teams to be more hesitant to pull the trigger than normal, and the Twins profile as one of those teams to me. 

The future uncertainty makes teams shy away from players with multiple years of control.  As a result, rentals become more expensive.  And with there being more buyers than sellers, the available rentals get even more expensive.  It's a recipe for minimal player movement. 

And after all, this is the same franchise whose trade deadline haul when they were actually in a position to go for it consisted of Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo.  Also the same franchise that remembers it blowing up in their face the one time they sorta-kinda went for it in 2022

My only question is are we going to get some quotes about how they were "totally in on" guys that went elsewhere, or will they go full-blown open letter.   Been awhile since we've gotten one of those - I'm sure the draft has been sitting on some PR intern's drive ever since the "go big or go home" quotes dropped in the offseason

[Andy MacPhail]

15 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Andy, nice of you to chime in on Twins Daily!

Thank you Hubie. I see it as my duty

[Jasper]

Tom P. needs to spring into action, all talk and tells people what they want to hear. YOU CAN BUY AND SELL and still improve the team. We need a couple established RPS. Have had 4 months to do that...

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I'd say the reason the Twins wouldn't QO Jeffers is the risk involved both ways.  

 

I wouldn't normally advocate for a QO that raises the pay so high, but if the new CBA is going to force the Twins to spend 50M+, I'd rather overpay Jeffers than sign three more Josh Bells. Except for the Donaldson/Correa era, this team ALWAYS foolishly goes quantity over quality in free agency. 

[Dman]

14 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wouldn't normally advocate for a QO that raises the pay so high, but if the new CBA is going to force the Twins to spend 50M+, I'd rather overpay Jeffers than sign three more Josh Bells. Except for the Donaldson/Correa era, this team ALWAYS foolishly goes quantity over quality in free agency. 

That's assuming they get the new CBA and all aspects take effect right away.  I'm not convinced that will happen, but sure if that does happen there are worse ways to spend 20M per year.  I'd just think that if the Twins felt that way Jeffers would be extended already and he hasn't been.

[D.C Twins]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I don't know what is going on behind the scene but I think Tom may have encouraged the coaching staff and manager as well as the front office to make some of the moves we have seen this season. The movement of players to positions where they are more suited has significantly strengthened the defense. I don't believe those moves would have been made last year. In that sense TP may be a fresh start. We just don't know. The reflexive hatred doesn't serve a purpose though, except that some people feel better having fantom enemies. 

Oh I think we are all guilty of having some 'fantom enemies' ... but the Pohlads are most certainly not some of them..... they have proven to be very very real over decades.

 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

That's assuming they get the new CBA and all aspects takes effect right away.  I'm not convinced that will happen, but sure if that does happen there are worse ways to spend 20M per year.  I'd just think that if the Twins felt that way Jeffers would be extended already and he hasn't been.

Well the Twins think that way because ownership is full of tentative sheep. They're reactionary instead of proactive, which is largely the reason this team can't build a championship and also largely why as the most tenured small market ownership in all of baseball, the entire league has fallen out of balance in terms of parity compared to other leagues. The Pohalds should be MLBs version of the NFLs Rooneys. But that's too much work and we don't do assertiveness way up here in the cold northern Midwest.

Um, right, back to my point. Because they're reactionary instead of proactive, I agree, they won't think about the fact that they may have to spend more money next year until the absolute last minute. So yeah, they won't have the foresight or fortitude to overpay for Jeffers and instead likely will have to give out gross contracts to the remaining free agents who nobody else wants.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wouldn't normally advocate for a QO that raises the pay so high, but if the new CBA is going to force the Twins to spend 50M+, I'd rather overpay Jeffers than sign three more Josh Bells. Except for the Donaldson/Correa era, this team ALWAYS foolishly goes quantity over quality in free agency. 

I'd rather spend $50 million on pitchers or picking up guys other teams will have to cut to get under a cap if that comes with the floor. Spending $30 million on catchers sounds like an awful use of resources. Bringing Jeffers back at an unbelievable overpay doesn't make the team better. If they're going to be forced to spend, at least make an effort to improve the team.

Even if the floor is 150, you'd still be spending 20% of your budget on catching. That's simply awful resource management.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

the entire league has fallen out of balance in terms of parity compared to other leagues.

Not to go sidewise on the topic, but I never understand this argument/comment and it is made all the time.

I don't believe it works to compare the leagues because they are structured differently and played vastly different schedules. My question is - What is parity? Is it an ability to defeat another team? Is it an opportunity to make the playoffs? What is parity? 

So I'm breaking my comment on suggesting you cannot compare if I say no other league has more teams closer .500 records if that is parity. The NHL is close but football, basketball, and soccer are nowhere close to baseball when it comes to a team having a competitive shot at winning.

What is parity? 

If parity is revenue sharing, that is strictly done by owners. Given there is a wide difference in revenues between organizations it makes sense that spending is also going to be widely different. That may be what people see as parity. If one makes revenue similarity the definition of parity, then I get it. That is different than competitive.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, TL said:

I think this is the right way to think about it. If someone gives up a top 50 prospect, take it. Otherwise get the comp pick or one more year at a bit of an overpay. We may even need to overpay to get to a salary floor. 

No one is giving up a top fifty prospect for Jeffers. That's an insane ask. A comp pick isn't even likely to be top 100...

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd rather spend $50 million on pitchers or picking up guys other teams will have to cut to get under a cap if that comes with the floor. Spending $30 million on catchers sounds like an awful use of resources. Bringing Jeffers back at an unbelievable overpay doesn't make the team better. If they're going to be forced to spend, at least make an effort to improve the team.

Even if the floor is 150, you'd still be spending 20% of your budget on catching. That's simply awful resource management.

Maybe the second part if it comes to fruition and an actual GOOD pitcher is available, but I'll hard pass on the first part. In a vacuum I'd totally agree, but the options aren't great:

I can't imagine anyone sees the Twins getting Skubal or Burnes. Maybe one of the other guys, but the rest are all either average-to-bad, much too old or have severely declining strikeout numbers that I'd like to run far, far away from.

Since I'd want nothing to do with Zach Gallen or Luis Severino anyway, I'd stick with Jeffers.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe the second part if it comes to fruition, but I'll hard pass on the first part:

I can't imagine anyone sees the Twins getting Skubal or Burnes. Maybe one of the other guys, but the rest are all either average-to-bad, much too old or have severely declining strikeout numbers that I'd like to run far, far away from.

Why couldn't the Twins get Skubal or Burnes if they're forced to spend another $50 million? I'd offer them the full 50 before I spent 23 million on Jeffers. 

Spending 20% of your budget on catching is a terrible use of resources. Trade for an overpriced guy. Sign 5 $10 million relievers. Throw all 50 mil at Skubal or Burnes. I'd take 5 Josh Bell types before I took Jeffers for 23 mil and am spending 20% of my budget on catchers. At least I have 5 shots at a breakout that way.

[MGX]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd take 5 Josh Bell types before I took Jeffers for 23 mil and am spending 20% of my budget on catchers. At least I have 5 shots at a breakout that way.

Any team with 5 Josh Bell types on it would have little chance to sign any FA pitchers & have their own staff all asking for trades. lol

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why couldn't the Twins get Skubal or Burnes if they're forced to spend another $50 million? I'd offer them the full 50 before I spent 23 million on Jeffers. 

Spending 20% of your budget on catching is a terrible use of resources. Trade for an overpriced guy. Sign 5 $10 million relievers. Throw all 50 mil at Skubal or Burnes. I'd take 5 Josh Bell types before I took Jeffers for 23 mil and am spending 20% of my budget on catchers. At least I have 5 shots at a breakout that way.

I'm not saying no to Skubal or Burnes, but that still seems far fetched and the sort of thing that won't be taken seriously by the fans. Or the players. 

One Josh Bell is clogging the roster, five would be an utter disaster. 3rd and 4th and 5th tier corner/DH players are the absolute worst free agents. Most the time they are terrible, but even when they're just average, they limit flexibility and block the higher ceiling players from getting on the field.

[LA Vikes Fan]

The trade talk is interesting and made me curious about 2 things. First, what would it take to get Chapman? I put that inquiry into Claude and the AI response was a top seven prospect. For the Twins, that means someone like Tait (3), Houston (7), Hill (5), GG (6)or Soto (8). That seems like a lot for a 38-year-old two month rental. I like Chapman as a player and I can see how he would be a great get and a real addition to this bullpen but I just am not certain I'm willing to pay that price for this team.

Second, has anyone heard or seen anything that suggests Sonny Gray would waive his no trade clause to come to Twins? What I've seen is that he wants to go to Atlanta because he's from the area and wants to play for team that has a real World Series chance. Maybe his buddy Joe Ryan can convince him to consider the Twins but even then, Claude says it would take a top three prospect (not Jenkins, but someone like Culpepper or Tait), plus a pitching arm in the upper minors as a secondary piece (CJ Culpepper? Sam Armstrong? Mike Peredes?), and maybe a third piece if the market gets very competitive. That prospect cost is also really high but I think the real hurdle is that Gray can choose where he wants to go and he has publicly said he wants to go to Atlanta.

I guess I would be tempted to trade someone like GG for Chapman given how many OF prospects we have, particularly if we can be assured of re-signing him for next season at something in the neighborhood of $13.3 million deal he has for 2026. Otherwise, I think the cost for these two it's just too high because I don't think either one of them gets us beyond a one (or maybe two) and done playoff appearance at best.

[Twinsrtheworst]

39 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well the Twins think that way because ownership is full of tentative sheep. They're reactionary instead of proactive, which is largely the reason this team can't build a championship and also largely why as the most tenured small market ownership in all of baseball, the entire league has fallen out of balance in terms of parity compared to other leagues. The Pohalds should be MLBs version of the NFLs Rooneys. But that's too much work and we don't do assertiveness way up here in the cold northern Midwest.

Um, right, back to my point. Because they're reactionary instead of proactive, I agree, they won't think about the fact that they may have to spend more money next year until the absolute last minute. So yeah, they won't have the foresight or fortitude to overpay for Jeffers and instead likely will have to give out gross contracts to the remaining free agents who nobody else wants.

Can’t all the same things you said about ownership be applied to the fan base? Tentative sheep for example. With so many fans following the herd of not supporting a fun team this year. All offseason it was let’s boycott the Twins, And as far as reactionary instead of being proactive. You like many vowed to not watch them or support the Twins untill they put a winner on the field or fire this guy or that guy. Then when a segment herd of fans get what they want, they find another excuse or reason to not support the team. I mean you are a moderator for a supposed Twins fan sight, and don’t seem to like anything the Twins do? Doesn’t make sence to me.Let’s be PROACTIVE and support theses kids, enjoy it, and you will be surprised. Or I guess continue as you are and be REACTIVE to everything you don’t like about the Twins and let me know how that works out for ya.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not saying no to Skubal or Burnes, but that still seems far fetched and the sort of thing that won't be taken seriously by the fans. Or the players. 

One Josh Bell is clogging the roster, five would be an utter disaster. 3rd and 4th and 5th tier corner/DH players are the absolute worst free agents. Most the time they are terrible, but even when they're just average, they limit flexibility and block the higher ceiling players from getting on the field.

I don't want Josh Bell types, but I'd rather have multiple options than overpaying for Jeffers. I'd rather have a combination of 5 Josh Bell, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer types or 5 pen arms or any number of things than overspending on Jeffers "because they have to spend it anyways."

How does the team improve by spending an extra 10 million on Jeffers and 20% of their budget on catchers? Your original stance was "if the new CBA is going to force the Twins to spend 50M+, I'd rather overpay Jeffers than sign three more Josh Bells." Why are those the only options? Is it entirely possible the Twins are so incompetent that they make those their only 2 options? Sure. But if they are forced to spend another 50 million, there are so many better ways to spend it. Including overpaying for guys like Skubal or Burnes. 

It's far-fetched for fans to think the Twins would sign Skubal or Burnes because it's far-fetched for fans to think the Twins would spend another 50 million next year. When they did spend in that 150ish range, they signed Carlos Correa. In the scenario you presented, they are forced to spend that extra 50 mil. It takes out the typical fan reaction of "the Pohlads won't spend anyways." If they're being forced to, why is it far-fetched that they'd spend it on a big-name guy when the only other time they've spent like that, they spent it on a big-name guy?

If they're going to be forced to spend, I really hope they don't do ridiculous things like overspend on catchers just to spend. I hope they actually take the chance to improve their team. Would I bet on them not screwing it up? Of course not. But I certainly won't hope they QO Jeffers for no reason at all.