Grading the Twins Through the Season's First Half

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of ​© Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The baseball calendar often treats the All-Star break as the unofficial midpoint of the season, but by the time players gather for the Midsummer Classic, every team has already played well beyond half of its schedule. The true halfway point comes after Game 81, offering the cleanest opportunity to evaluate what's gone right and what hasn't.

For the Twins, the first half has been a frustrating mix of encouraging individual performances and costly shortcomings. Injuries have reshaped nearly every part of the roster, several key players have underperformed, and Minnesota enters the second half below .500 despite boasting one of the American League's highest-scoring offenses. Some areas deserve praise. Others need significant improvement if the Twins hope to climb back into the postseason race.

Twins Starting Pitching — Grade: B

The starting rotation has been one of Minnesota's biggest strengths, even if injuries have prevented it from reaching its full potential.

Joe Ryan has pitched like one of the American League's best starters, quickly putting an early-season injury scare behind him and pitching at an All-Star caliber level whenever he's taken the ball. Taj Bradley has largely delivered on expectations after arriving in Minnesota, although he's shown some inconsistency since returning from the injured list. Bailey Ober also deserves credit for grinding through diminished velocity before landing on the injured list, finding ways to remain effective despite not having his best stuff.

Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the organization's pitching depth. Connor Prielipp, Mike Paredes, and Zebby Matthews have all contributed meaningful innings earlier than many expected, helping stabilize the rotation when injuries piled up.

Of course, the negatives can't be ignored. Simeon Woods Richardson struggled through 12 appearances, producing a -1.2 rWAR before eventually being designated for assignment. Minnesota has also had to navigate season-altering injuries to Pablo Lopez, Mick Abel, and David Festa, all of whom appear likely to miss all or most of the season.

Even with those setbacks, the Twins have remained around the middle of the league in fWAR, FIP, and xERA among starting staffs. Considering everything they've overcome, that's a respectable outcome.

Twins Relief Pitching — Grade: D

This bullpen was already facing an uphill battle before Opening Day. Minnesota did little over the winter to reinforce the relief corps, with veteran left-hander Taylor Rogers serving as the club's biggest addition. Unfortunately, Rogers has looked every bit like a pitcher battling Father Time, with an ERA north of 6.00 and a career-low strikeout rate of 18.6%.

The organization likely envisioned supplementing the bullpen by shifting some starting pitching depth into relief roles, but injuries throughout the rotation have delayed most of those plans. Andrew Morris has been the lone exception, although his transition has produced uneven results.

Ironically, the Twins' biggest bullpen success came from outside the organization. Yoendrys Gomez has become one of Minnesota's best stories after the coaching staff helped clean up some mechanical issues. The right-hander now ranks third among Twins pitchers in rWAR, trailing only Ryan and Bradley.

The overall results, however, remain disappointing. Minnesota ranks 24th in bullpen fWAR, 23rd in xERA, and 29th in xFIP. The relievers have also produced a -1.26 Win Probability Added, ranking 23rd in baseball. While other AL Central foes, Kansas City and Detroit, have received even less value from their bullpens, that's hardly much consolation. The Twins simply haven't been able to consistently protect leads or shorten games, and it has cost them throughout the first half.

Twins Lineup — Grade: B

The offense has done far more than its share. Entering Monday's action, Minnesota had scored 412 runs, more than any other American League club and three more than the second-place Yankees. The Twins also own baseball's eighth-best slugging percentage, giving them enough firepower to stay competitive even when other parts of the roster have struggled.

Byron Buxton has been the unquestioned headliner. He's putting together one of the finest offensive seasons in franchise history and remains on pace to become the first player in Twins history to hit 50 home runs in a season. Before suffering a broken hamate bone, Ryan Jeffers was putting together an All-Star-caliber campaign of his own.

The lineup has also benefited from several unexpected contributors. Kody Clemens has delivered timely production, Trevor Larnach continues to provide middle-of-the-order power, Brooks Lee has become one of the club's most consistent hitters, and Victor Caratini has helped soften the blow of Jeffers' absence.

Not everything has gone according to plan. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner both opened the season expecting to anchor the middle of the order before struggling enough to earn demotions to Triple-A. Lewis quickly reminded everyone why he's such an important piece of the organization's future, dominating Triple-A pitching before returning with a much-improved approach at the plate.

Minnesota has cashed in with runners in scoring position, and that might be the biggest reason for their offensive success. Unfortunately, batting with RISP is not a predictive statistic, so the club could be heading for regression. The offense has carried this team for much of the season. Without it, Minnesota likely wouldn't be anywhere near the playoff conversation.

Twins Defense — Grade: F

There's simply no way to sugarcoat it. Minnesota has been one of baseball's worst defensive teams. According to FanGraphs, the Twins own a -26.9 defensive rating (fielding plus positional adjustment), with only the Angels and Mariners ranking lower. Baseball Savant tells a similar story, placing Minnesota 27th in Outs Above Average at -18.

Several individual defenders have struggled. Luke Keaschall and Lee each posted a -7 OAA before both began transitioning to new defensive homes. Tristan Gray and Trevor Larnach each finished the first half at -4 OAA, while Wallner and Lewis both recorded -3 OAA before their respective demotions. Lewis has since begun learning new positions (first and second base) in an effort to maximize his long-term value.

The defensive struggles have extended well beyond one or two players. Too many extra outs have been given away, too many innings have been extended, and too much pressure has been placed on a pitching staff already battling injuries. If Minnesota hopes to make a second-half push, improving defensively may be the single biggest area of need.

Grading the First Half

The Twins' first half has been defined by contradiction. They've received outstanding performances from Ryan, Buxton, and several unexpected contributors while overcoming wave after wave of pitching injuries. At the same time, bullpen inconsistency and poor defense have repeatedly erased those positives, helping explain why a team with one of the American League's most productive offenses still finds itself below .500.

The encouraging news is that many of Minnesota's biggest issues appear more fixable than its strengths are sustainable. If the rotation can get healthier, the defense improves even marginally, and the front office finds a way to stabilize the bullpen, the ingredients for a second-half turnaround are still present.

But after 81 games, the grades reflect exactly where the Twins stand: good enough to remain within striking distance, yet far too inconsistent to feel comfortable about their postseason chances.

What grades would you give to the team’s individual parts? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[bean5302]

By positions
C - A
1B - D
2B - C
3B - C
SS - F
LF - A (#1 in MLB fWAR)
CF - A
RF - F
DH - C

SP - C

RP - F
 

[Linus]

The frustrating thing is the club is exactly what many people predicted before the season but nothing was done to address it. The bullpen is an obvious example but they have been bad defensively for years. The crazy part is I think they have been a little lucky offensively. Hitting with RISP has been really high. If that regresses our offense will come back to earth. 
Can someone more familiar with analytics help me out?  I believe analytics folks pretty much proved there was no such thing as a “clutch hitter”. In other words there are variations but over time it regresses to the mean. Is this accurate or is there other research contradicting this theory?

[Saxophone Joe]

Joe Ryan has gone past 6 innings twice this season. I dunno, maybe the stats show he is one of the AL's best starters, but "the experience" hasn't quite felt like a fun trip all that often to my eyes. Even when he's been great, like in the White Sox start a few weeks back, he gives up a late homer that tied the game up. 

Fielding has been bad, but not an F imo. The main photo on this story is diabolical lmao ☠️ 

[Blyleven2011]

Grades for front office mismanagement = F   , A BIG FAT  ONE ...

OFFENSE  = B , better than expected  ...

DEFENSE  = D , down right awful at times ...

STARTING PITCHING  = B , benevolent 

BULLPEN = F , fricken Butt ugly  ...

[Saxophone Joe]

19 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Grades for front office mismanagement = F   , A BIG FAT  ONE ...

I'll give 'em this - they looked bad around early May, but on July 1, the Bell and Caratini signings appear to have been good decisions. They have been huge for us the past 6 weeks. But will Bell be around this time next month? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I thought the original post reached accurate conclusions but I disagree with some of the things stated. Joe Ryan has been an very good #2 starter. He has not pitched like a #1 because he hasn't consistently pitched into the 7th inning and he has been too inconsistent. Last night was a very good example of both and not the only example. A #1 given a three run lead before he steps on the mound ruthlessly shuts down the other team, crushes their dreams, and go seven innings giving up one or two runs. I hope he stays but we really miss Pablo Lopez. Bad. He's a #1. The good news is the starting pitching has been much better than expected with all of the injuries. Bradley and Matthews have been revelations and it looks like Preilipp and Paredes may be MLB starters at a #2 or #3 and #4/5 level respectively. The offense has been better than I expected and I think that will continue and could even improve if a guy like Roden, Culpeper Emma, etc. comes up and hits.  

The bullpen stinks, although it is improving at least a little. The starting pitching injuries killed any chance of internal improvement. I think the plan all along was for two of Prielipp, Festa, Abel, Rojas, and Matthews to be in the pen covering late innings with the other 3 as the 5th, 6th, and 7th starters. Instead, those 5 are all either injured or rotation stalwarts and we're scrambling. Bad on the FO for not getting more depth for sure. Thank god they found Gomez. Some national outlets suggest he should be traded. Makes sense if you're rooting for another team or if you think he's a mirage. I see a 26 year old hard thrower who has shown he could be a closer and has multiple years of control left. Trading him for anything less than a proven middle of the order bat with multiple years of control left (good luck with that) would be insane. We need more Gomezes, not trade the one we have. 

The defense we started out with turned out worse than expected. I understand trying to see if Lee could handle SS and Keaschall 2B. Some had doubts, me included, but I don't thank anyone thought they would be this bad at those spots. At least we pivoted, although more slowly than one would like. I think the defense in its present configuration will be average in the second half, a big step up, and could be better than average if we would just install Kriedler at SS and leave him there every day. For Christsakes, he's far and away the best fielding SS we have and he can hit a little at least so far. Quit getting cute and playing matchups to get Gray in the lineup. He's a guy hitting .238 with a .631 OPS who can't play short. Play him, why exactly? WTF? Play Kriedler until Houston or Culpepper is ready. Set it and forget it. 

Finally, I think the biggest improvement made in the first half that will really show in the second half is the replacement of Rocco and Falvey with Shelton and Zoll. The latter two have shown much more flexibility, much more willingness to change and experiment, and Shelton seems to be able to run a cohesive team where the guys genuinely play hard for each other. This team is a work in progress and will be for the rest of the season. To be successful, Shelton has to adapt day-to-day and week to week, and Zoll has to be willing to promote aggressively, take chances, and ruthlessly cut and run when those chances don't work out. Luis Garcia wasn't going to work out and we knew it after he'd been in the team for a week, yet he stuck around for a month. Now Falvey wouldn't have cut him and Rocco would still be pitching him in high leverage situations so what we did is an improvement of sorts. It's just not enough of improvement. We can't do that and have any hope for success. 

Overall, we are what our records says we are – a slightly below average team with aspirations and the possibility of being a slightly above average team, but with the possibility of sinking to a well below average team. Starting pitching B+, hitting A-, defense D- improving with a C possibly in sight, Bullpen a D- hoping to someday be a C-. Manager A. Front office the B- but with a little tutoring and improvement, could be a B to B+. All adds up to a team that's gonna win between 75 and 85 games, and which could be anywhere in between. Hey, better than I expected.

[MikeNC]

"It is time, all debris into disposal chutes . . . including the body of the Centurian" - Romulan Commander.  Time to cut bait, this team is far more entertaining than expected, has some promising talent with more on the way (let's start making room for them), but just doesn't have the pitching to be anything but a doormat should they get that last wildcard.  Let's get something for the impending FAs, 2 or 3 decent releif pitchers would make this team a contender next year.  They are already revamping the Defense, let's be strategic in the moves this trade deadline, not the fire sale thing.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

The frustrating thing is the club is exactly what many people predicted before the season but nothing was done to address it. The bullpen is an obvious example but they have been bad defensively for years. The crazy part is I think they have been a little lucky offensively. Hitting with RISP has been really high. If that regresses our offense will come back to earth. 
Can someone more familiar with analytics help me out?  I believe analytics folks pretty much proved there was no such thing as a “clutch hitter”. In other words there are variations but over time it regresses to the mean. Is this accurate or is there other research contradicting this theory?

A clutch hitter could exist. There are always exceptions, but in general, a hitter can't decide when they're going to be good. Furthermore, if a hitter "could" decide to be extra good when it was "clutch" then it would imply they don't try when it's not important.

Same kind of clutch argument was used for Jack Morris by his proponents pushing for the HoF who argued Morris gave up runs when he didn't care. (debunked).

For pitchers, clutch can exist due to stretch vs. windup technique or for hitters, if they were just really calm and collected at the plate. All business regardless of the outside stresses (Joe Mauer). The higher the stress of the situation, the more it would probably benefit a hitter or pitcher who was more in the zone and less anxious, in theory?

For an entire team, historically, clutch hitting isn't a thing. However, Cleveland seems to be bucking that concept. Cleveland puts a lot of balls in play. Low BB rate, low K rate. It's not that they have a good BABIP (2nd worst in MLB from 2022-2026), but they also rarely GIDP. They're a pop-up and fly ball heavy lineup which isn't all that great on paper, but pop ups and FBs don't generate GIDPs and putting lots of balls in play seems to have an advantage?
2022 = 2nd +2.93
2023 = 5th +2.62
2024 = 11th +1.00
2025 = 1st +3.55
2026 = 18th +0.52

Basically, is Cleveland clutch because of a plate approach or is Cleveland clutch because of a passive strategy of the type of player they have on the roster?

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

A clutch hitter could exist. There are always exceptions, but in general, a hitter can't decide when they're going to be good. Furthermore, if a hitter "could" decide to be extra good when it was "clutch" then it would imply they don't try when it's not important.

Same kind of clutch argument was used for Jack Morris by his proponents pushing for the HoF who argued Morris gave up runs when he didn't care. (debunked).

For pitchers, clutch can exist due to stretch vs. windup technique or for hitters, if they were just really calm and collected at the plate. All business regardless of the outside stresses (Joe Mauer). The higher the stress of the situation, the more it would probably benefit a hitter or pitcher who was more in the zone and less anxious, in theory?

For an entire team, historically, clutch hitting isn't a thing. However, Cleveland seems to be bucking that concept. Cleveland puts a lot of balls in play. Low BB rate, low K rate. It's not that they have a good BABIP (2nd worst in MLB from 2022-2026), but they also rarely GIDP. They're a pop-up and fly ball heavy lineup which isn't all that great on paper, but pop ups and FBs don't generate GIDPs and putting lots of balls in play seems to have an advantage?
2022 = 2nd +2.93
2023 = 5th +2.62
2024 = 11th +1.00
2025 = 1st +3.55
2026 = 18th +0.52

Basically, is Cleveland clutch because of a plate approach or is Cleveland clutch because of a passive strategy of the type of player they have on the roster?

Your logic makes sense. I thought a statistical analysis had been done that basically proved it was random but can’t remember for sure. 

[Saxophone Joe]

1 hour ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Joe Ryan has gone past 6 innings twice this season

And for comparison, per Dan Hayes, Zebby has gone 7 innings 4 times already. 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Finally, I think the biggest improvement made in the first half that will really show in the second half is the replacement of Rocco and Falvey with Shelton and Zoll. The latter two have shown much more flexibility, much more willingness to change and experiment,

To me, Zoll has felt like a rerun of Falvey. Still a very small sample size, I don't see any difference between Zoll holding onto the likes of Outman, Garcia, and Lawrence compared to other Falvey duds of the past.

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Now Falvey wouldn't have cut him

I'm no Falvey supporter, but even he wasn't holding onto a 10+ ERA ancient reliever for more than 9 appearances. 

Shelton has certainly been an upgrade from Rocco, but you could tell me Falvey was still in charge and I'd believe you.

[FlyingFinn]

Thanks for the article. I do disagree about the Twins surprising starting pitching depth. There were articles asking if we should trade from the great pitching depth. Smartly, the Twins didn't trade and that depth has been needed due to injuries.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Joe Ryan has gone past 6 innings twice this season. 

2 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

And for comparison, per Dan Hayes, Zebby has gone 7 innings 4 times already. 

The league average for pitches per plate appearance is 3.87.  Joe's this year is 4.03 and Zebby's is 3.68.  Little things like this - some batter fouling off a good 2-strike pitch instead of whiffing - can alter the course of a game and with enough time a season.  Joe's always run a little high in this metric.  He gets to 90 pitches a little sooner than he might and the manager has to start thinking about the bullpen.

/ edit: I just want to add that pitches per PA isn't much of a metric for how good a pitcher is.  Luis Garcia was 3.57, Justin Lawrence was 4.18. Both were terrible.  Pit/PA only has bearing if a pitcher is good and you want him to face as many batters as possible.

[IndianaTwin]

If the name of the game on offense is scoring runs and the team is leading the league in runs scored, what is required to achieve an A?

[IndianaTwin]

Also, The Athletic posted its analysis of which teams will/should be buys and which sellers. 

They call the Twins' biggest needs "SP/OF."

Um, I'm viewing their biggest need a little differently....

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Joe Ryan has gone past 6 innings twice this season. I dunno, maybe the stats show he is one of the AL's best starters, but "the experience" hasn't quite felt like a fun trip all that often to my eyes. Even when he's been great, like in the White Sox start a few weeks back, he gives up a late homer that tied the game up. 

Fielding has been bad, but not an F imo. The main photo on this story is diabolical lmao ☠️ 

The one announcer last night said: Ryan had one bad inning against the Dodgers, and one bad inning tonight.

The Twins lost both games. One bad inning is all it takes to lose a game and so called "Ace" pitchers do not regularly have - one bad inning that loses a game.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

By positions
C - A
1B - D
2B - C
3B - C
SS - F
LF - A (#1 in MLB fWAR)
CF - A
RF - F
DH - C

SP - C

RP - F
 

If this is on offense the 1B is off.  Should be a B or B-. 

I agree with Authors assessment of a B for SP due to overcoming all those injuries and being at least average 

RP can quibble over D and F.  We did find 2 relievers Morris and Gomez and Banda was on a long roll of great pitching for almost 2 months before getting hurt.  But the rest of the pen is awful.  We should have at least two more relievers that have value.  Rogers is flopping., Orza is near 5.00 that is not the value I'm talking about.  No one else is doing good either 

[Cody Christie]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I thought the original post reached accurate conclusions but I disagree with some of the things stated. Joe Ryan has been an very good #2 starter. He has not pitched like a #1 because he hasn't consistently pitched into the 7th inning and he has been too inconsistent.

Only seven AL pitchers have more quality starts than Ryan. He ranks 14th in innings pitched and that would likely be higher had he not left one start early. Pitchers throwing seven innings regularly just doesn't happen as much in the modern game.

I agree that he could be more efficient (last night being a good example). He has the league's sixth best fWAR and seventh best rWAR. That's about as good as it gets.  

[Cody Christie]

20 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Also, The Athletic posted its analysis of which teams will/should be buys and which sellers. 

They call the Twins' biggest needs "SP/OF."

Um, I'm viewing their biggest need a little differently....

There have been a lot of injuries on the starting pitching side, so that makes some sense. It seems more likely they would need to add relievers. On the outfield side, it seems more likely for the team to turn to internal options. Hopefully, Walker Jenkins is ready quickly now that he has returned from injury. 

[Cody Christie]

29 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

If the name of the game on offense is scoring runs and the team is leading the league in runs scored, what is required to achieve an A?

More consistent performance from the offense. They lead the league in runs because they have been otherworldly with runners in scoring position and have scored their runs in bunches (17 games with 8+ runs). 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

More consistent performance from the offense. They lead the league in runs because they have been otherworldly with runners in scoring position and have scored their runs in bunches (17 games with 8+ runs). 

It bears repeating that the AL as a whole is in a down year with run scoring.  If the Twins were in the NL there would be 5 teams above them.

I'll say, though, that the "consistency" has been improved lately.  Since getting shut out in Detroit on June 11 they haven't had games where the offense gave themselves little chance to win, except against the Dodgers.  Earlier in the season they were almost alternating offense explosions with 1-run games, leading me to question the decent looking totals across games.

As for the RISPy situations, only a Debbie Downer would look at their high BABIP and wonder whether it's sustainable so I will refrain from speculating and just say good for them, these guys are pros and trying their darndest. 😉

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Cody Christie said:

More consistent performance from the offense. They lead the league in runs because they have been otherworldly with runners in scoring position and have scored their runs in bunches (17 games with 8+ runs). 

So the Twins lead the league in runs scored and you give them a B because you don't like the way they do that?  I hope your college professors don't grade your papers that way.... Correct information but the metaphors and word pictures put me to sleep.  B

[Cody Christie]

14 minutes ago, Brandon said:

So the Twins lead the league in runs scored and you give them a B because you don't like the way they do that?  I hope your college professors don't grade your papers that way.... Correct information but the metaphors and word pictures put me to sleep.  B

I haven't been in college in multiple decades. Not sure many of my professors are still working 😅

[Western SD Fan]

Grades look pretty good from my perspective.  Maybe you tweak the lineup to B+.  The hitting itself deserves an A to A-, but you have to consider baserunning as part of the lineup grading.  Someone will give me the correct ranking, but I believe that the Twins are at or near the bottom in baserunning.  They are still a bit reckless on the basepaths and that will drag down the lineup grade. 

As for RISP, it's logical to think there will eventually be some regression.  I would like to point out that the Twins have improved in reducing strikeouts over the course of the season.  Just making contact should improve your RISP numbers.  I just watched a video where someone was analyzing the Rays and their inability to hit home runs this year.  What they do very well is put the ball in play and run.  Constantly putting pressure on a defense (as we have seen first-hand) definitely helps out a team.

I don't think that a team can be clutch, but certain individuals certainly can be.  Clemens and Bell are currently the best on the team.  They are willing to sacrifice power in order to drive in the run.  We have seen that over the years from some of the best like Miguel Cabrera, Wade Boggs, Joe Mauer, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome.  I still remember Bert Blyleven describing Cabrera as always being able to "smell" that RBI.  I know modern analytics don't think the RBI is a real stat, but your approach on how you get that RBI certainly makes a difference.